If Aaron Ramsdale leaves Arsenal, where will he end up?

Following Gareth Southgate’s comments last week, Aaron Ramsdale is likely to be seriously considering his Arsenal future.

With Mikel Arteta looking to stick with David Raya as number one, Ramsdale will have to get used to sitting on our bench for the rest of the season. Even if next summer Raya is not recruited permanently, I can not see Ramsdale returning as first choice.

As we blogged recently, Ramsdale is a fantastic goalkeeper, but maybe not the quality for a championship winning team. You are free to debate that in the comments….

In Arteta’s pre-Burnley press conference, the boss warned Ramsdale that “making early decisions [on Ramsdale’s future] is not something good at all“. I imagine Mikel was also seething that Southgate was basically publicly stating “get out of Arsenal or you will not make Euro 2024”, whilst not reserving similar comments to the likes of Harry Maguire and Kalvin Phillips in the past.

Arteta’s warning to Ramsdale about not rushing his decision feels like he is saying “the grass is not always greener on the other side”, and it is something I have been thinking for a while as well.

There is a key question Ramsdale has to ask himself: “If I left Arsenal, where will I end up?”

Manchester City – Have Ederson, Ramsdale would be number 2
Liverpool – Have Alisson, Ramsdale would be number 2
Tottenham – Have Guglielmo Vicario, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Aston Villa – Have Emiliano Martinez, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Newcastle – Have Nick Pope, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Manchester United – Have Andre Onana, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Crystal Palace – Have Sam Johnstone, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
West Ham – Have Alphonse Areola, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Wolves – Have Jose Sa, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Fulham – Have Bernd Leno, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Everton – Have Jordan Pickford, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1

If Ramsdale would be looking to leave us due to not playing enough, we would not be looking to move to a side where he is not guaranteed to be first choice. That rules out 11 of the 19 Premier League clubs.

Now some might make a case that he is better than Leno, Sa, Areola, Johnstone and Onana, and I think he is. But they are established number 1’s at their clubs so he will not walk straight in and play from day 1, which is what he will need to do in January to avoid missing out on Southgate’s squad.

Early in his career, Ramsdale had been relegated 3 times. And this is where Arteta’s “do not rush into it” thinking comes in.

Does Ramsdale want to go from sitting on the bench for a title chasing team, to playing week in week our for a team that is fighting relegation, and in 8 months find himself playing Championship football? I think the answer is no, which then rules out:

Sheffield United
Burnley
Bournemouth
Luton Town

That takes us to 15 of 19 Premier League clubs that would be unsuitable for Ramsdale. We are left with:

Brentford – Would be a good fit. Mark Flekken not exactly covered himself in glory since replacing Raya. Ramsdale would be an upgrade.
Brighton – Same as Brighton. Jason Steele is a solid number 2, but not really top quality. Also 33-years-old. Ramsdale would be an upgrade.
Chelsea – Robert Sanchez has been shakey since joining from Brighton. I do not think Ramsdale would be guaranteed a start, but if Mauricio Pochettino is looking to upgrade, Aaron would be an option.
Nottingham Forest – Boderline whether they are in the “relegation battle” category. Have enough to stay up this season which would give Ramsdale 18 months of Premier League football.

So there we have it. Brentford, Brighton, Chelsea and Nottingham Forest are the only realistic sides where Ramsdale would be guaranteed to be first choice if he joined in January, and would not be at risk of playing in the Championship come 2024/25.

Bayern Munich have been linked with Ramsdale over the last week or so, but I can not see him moving abroad considering he has a new born.

Considering the struggles he and his misses have overcome in the last 12-months, it will be important that they keep family close. A move to Germany, Spain or France will be a big shift mentally.

Like Arteta, I think Ramsdale needs to take his time over his next step.

He turns 26 at the end of this season, so his next move will be to somewhere he will look to play into his 30s. That is more important than making a short term, knee jerk decision that might see him make Southgate’s Euro 2024 squad, but could be detrimental for his longer career.

Does he really want to be bouncing from Championship to Premier League for the next 5-years? Or hoping from club to club as he either looks for first team football or a quick return to the Premier League after his side got relegated?

If I were him, I would stay at Arsenal as number 2 for this season whilst taking aproper review as to where I would end up. That would give him the time to have proper discussions with Brentford, with Brighton, and even Chelsea. A move to Leicester City (who were too good to go down) could also open up.

Brentford, Brighton or Leicester in the summer would be better for Ramsdale’s long term career than jumping ship to a Sheffield United, Burnley, Bournemouth or Luton Town in January.

I think next summer we buy David Raya no matter what. £27million option to buy is dirt cheap for a keeper of his quality. Even if we decide to make him number 2 and go out to the market to buy someone even better, it is a good deal.

Selling Ramsdale would more than pay for Raya’s recruitment. I would expect us to get in the region of £40m for him. That is a £13m net spend without a drop off in quality.

There is the final option that Ramsdale might just prefer to stay in London, sitting on the bench for a huge team, then move to a mid-table team to play regular football. And if that happens I am more than happy!

The important thing, as Arteta says, is that Ramsdale ignores Southgate and does not rush into making a decision based on Euro 2024.

UTA.

Keenos

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