Wow! Where did that come from yesterday?

A few days ago I blogged that Arsenal were not priced out of Morgan Rogers.

We wanted to get a deal done for £80-100m. We could have gone higher but we had out value. We decided not to match Chelsea bid.

One reason I gave for us not going higher is that at £117m, Rogers was coming close to the price bracket of the likes of Vinicius Jr.

At £80-100m, Rogers was first choice. But once we got over that £100m the eyes were always going be cast elsewhere. Either to the likes of Vinicius Jr at £125-150m, or lower down the pricing to Mika Godts or Kenan Yildiz.

Even if we pay my maximum price for Vinicius Jr (£150), that still feels better value than the £117m Chelsea paid for Rogers.

I said earlier in the week that Andrea Berta et al can see the bigger picture. The impact spending £117m on Rogers would have on the overall transfer budget. And who else may be available for higher or lower that might represent a better option. Within days of Chelsea signing Rogers we have now been heavily linked with boy Yan Diomande and Vinicius Jr.

Currently on £400k a week with a year to run on his contract, the next big question is “how can Arsenal finance the deal”.

The £150m transfer fee is not huge. It will just mean we have to tweak our transfer business elsewhere. And that may mean that we end up signing Vini Jr and Bruno Guimaraes and no one else. that would leave our squad looking like this:

The expectation was that Ben White would leave this summer, and be replaced with a more attacking full back. With William Saliba’s injury, and if Vini Jr joins, it may now be sensible to keep Ben White.

Staying will be more White’s choice than Arsenal’s, however he does not look like a player itching to leave the Champions.

White staying would give Mikel Arteta 3 options to cover for Saliba during his 3-4 month absence alongside Cristhian Mosquera and Jurrien Timber.

That would keep the defensive options the same as last year, with Piero Hincape and Ricardo Calafiori being the options to replace Gabriel.

Perhaps the biggest headache for Arsenal is how to pay Vini Jr’s wages. At his current £400k a week the Brazilian would be Arsenal’s highest paid player. I have no issue the club paying him that. And World Class players want to play with other World Class players. I am sure his recruitment would not get the likes of Bukayo Saka knocking on the door.

To create the headroom to pay Vini Jr, we would need to see exits. Those exits would likely come from the ??? category above.

Gabriel Jesus is the obvious first candidate to depart. His reported £265k a week wages are amongst the highest at the club and getting him off the wage bill would get us half way to paying Vini Jr. we may even consider letting Jesus leave for nothing jut to save those wages – with a buying club matching his wages for a season before his contract drops down.

Reiss Nelson and Fabio Vieira are two who will also depart this summer. They earn around £150k a week combined. We can not really take this into account however as both were on loan last season, with their wages covered.

Max Dowman is going no-where. Ethan Nwaneri and Myles Lewis-Skelly may still depart if a huge offer comes in.

The pair are fantastic players who we should not sell lightly. In Lewis-Skelly’s case, he excelled in last seasons Champions League final, but you struggle to see how he would get game time if Bruno comes in. I would still keep him though considering the age profile of Bruno, Declan Rice and Martin Zubimendi – all 27-28.

It is also important to note that the pair are homegrown and do not need to be registered on the A list. They are also not on huge wages.

Personally, I would like to see both retained, unless offers north of £50m come in. Nwaneri could probably do with another loan deal for regular football. And MLS might even be worthwhile loaning out. The pair would benefit going to someone like Bournemouth or Brentford to play week in, week out.

Christian Norgaard was a surprise arrival last season. Will his stay at Arsenal extend beyond a year? He was clearly signed to be cover in the middle, and lost that position to MLS. He would save the club approximately £65k which, alongside the Jesus saving, takes us to £340k a week.

At this point, we could comfortably bridge the gap between the saving on Norgaard and Jesus, and paying Vini Jr. we are set to submit record revenues in our accounts and that additional monies should easily pay for Bruno’s salary and the remainder of Vinicius Jr.

If things are looking a little tight, Gabriel Martinelli will then be the one to make way.

I still think Martinelli has a role to play at Arsenal, even with Christos Tzolis’ arrival and Vini Jr potentially coming through the door.

Martinelli is raw pace which only Noni Madueke matches in the squad. He is an option on the right and left, and through the middle. I actually think we underuse him in the middle and you could certainly see him as an option playing off a big man.

But if we do need to make a saving, I would not be upset if Martinelli left. Vini Jr is an upgrade, and we do not overly need to replace Jesus’ multi forward function in the squad.

Gabi’s £180k a week would take us up to £520 in saved wages with the departure of 3 players. That is Vinicius Jr paid for without having to factor in our additional revenue.

There is still a long way to go in this transfer dealing, but Arsenal would not have leaked the news about Vini Jr if we did not think we could make the math work. We probably already know what he and his agents want. Now it is about agreeing a deal with Real Madrid.

Over to you Andrea Berta…

Keenos

Spending £80m on a nearly 28-year-old Brazilian central midfielder may feel excessive, but Arsenal only need to look at the success of Man City as inspiration in the deal.

In 2013, Man City spent £34million on a 28-year-old Brazilian midfielder plying his trade in Ukraine. Adjusted for football inflation, that would be around £80-90m in today’s market. The player on question would go on to play 384 games across 9seasons for Man City and would be the driving force behind 5 league titles and a total of 13 domestic and European honours.

For a time, Fernandinho was probably the best defensive midfielder in world football, and he was so good that City struggled for a long time to recruit a suitable long-term replacement until they signed Rodri.

Whilst £80m might see huge for Bruno Guimaraes, he is a player that can come in and make and instant impact.

Bruno is easily in the top 5 or 6 central midfielders in the league. Only really Declan Rice and Rodri are clear of him. He is then in that level below and with the likes of Moises Caicedo and Dominik Szoboszlai.

A key aspect of City’s recruitment in the last 15 years (and of the likes of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich for as long as I can remember) is their financial strength means they do not need to worry about a players “sell on value”.

Due to their financial strength, these teams can sign the best in the world regardless of their age. Players who can make and instant instant impact and this means that they never really have to go through a rebuilding phases. Man U were also in this bracket in the 90s and naughties.

Having earned record revenues last summer, Arsenal are now (temporarily at least) in a position where we can amortise £80m over a 5-year contract and be happy if that player leaves for nothing. And if that player leads us to further success, then he will go down as a very successful signing.

What it’s important is we keep the balance of the squad right. recruiting someone like Bruno is excellent in terms of keeping us at the top level. Him, Rice and Martin Zubimendi are 3 brilliant options for those two midfield spots. But Rice and Zubimendi are 27 and Bruno will soon be 29.A

All 3 have another 3-5 years at least at the top level. What we then need to ensure is we are all future proofing the squad by also recruiting and developing younger talent. You then have your “oven-ready” signings like Bruno and someone like Myles Lewis Skelly at 10-years you get compliments him nicely.

Fans also have a tendency to write off players as they approach 30. But not every player deteriorates physically at the same time. And if the player has a good attitude then they can “reinvent” themselves and begin to play deeper, or in a less physically demanding role.

For now Bruno is probably best playing further forward as a box crashing midfielder. But he certainly has the IQ and guise to end up as a full time defensive midfielder if his legs begin to go.

He actually reminds me a lot of another former-Man City midfielder: Ilkay Gundogan.

Gundogan was always a fantastic player, but he probably played his best football from 2020-2023, for the age of 30 to 33.

UTA

Keenos

Moaning about transfers achieves nothing beyond getting your own frustrations off your chest.

Whilst we may all be disappointed when we miss out on a supposed main target, we always have to remember that the club are the only ones who see the full picture. They know what business they want to do, both incoming and outgoing. And all of that business impacts on each other.

Based on what is out there right now, it is clear we are looking at a left winger, a central midfielder, and a right back come centre back to come in alongside Illan Meslier and Christos Tzolis.

After establishing the type of player they want, the club then assigns the sort of budget they are looking to invest in each position – including all transfer fees, wages, agent fees, etc. Whilst fans cry “pay the asking price”, overpaying for one player may mean you miss out on another, or have to go for a cheaper option elsewhere.

Illan Meslier on a free, for example, led to the club getting some criticism. But by recruiting him – as either the 2nd or 3rd choice keeper remember – we ensure that we have more funds left for other positions. Likewise, Tzolis for around £30m will ensure that our trio of main targets is not affected.

I truly believe the club are targetting:

• A left winger in the region of £80-£100m
• A central midfielder in the region of £60-80m
• A rigth back come centre back in the region of £40-60m.

If we recruit those at the bottom end of our prices, we spend £180m. At the top end of the prices, it is £240m. Alongside Tzolis and Hincapie that will be around £300m spent this summer. Add in the wages, agent fees, etc and that is likely our budget. The club will know exactly what this figure is.

But now we get the selling clubs asking price.

Morgan Rogers has seemingly gone to Chelsea for £117m. Newcastle initially demanded £100m for Bruno. Were we to just pay the asking price, that would be £217m, leaving just £23m in the pot for a new right back/centre back. Overpaying leads you having to make sacrifices elsewhere, and Chelsea have shown this.

Under BlueCo, Chelsea have built a reputation for coming in late and moving quick for major signings, usually paying the asking price. It is how they signed Rogers from under Arsenal’s nose. And how they recruited Romeo Lavia and Moises Caicedo who were both seemingly Liverpool bound. But this sort of behaviour by Chelsea creates financial risk.

Chelsea continually to overpay in the transfer market. And whilst they might give their fans that endorphin of beating a rival to a player, it is ultimately at the detriment of the club.

Paying the asking price and spending big on long term contracts has basically ruined Chelsea. Whilst Liverpool and Arsenal’s more “sensible” approach has seen them win the last two league titles, Chelsea have finished 4th and 10th.

Chelsea have huge financial problems. And what that means is they are constantly having to sell players to buy. And that creates a problem when it is selling your better players.

Marc Cucerella has already departed this summer to Real Madrid. And who will now depart to finance Rogers. It will likely be either Enzo Fernandez or Cole Palmer. That will be two of their 3 best players gone to finance their chatoic transfer policy.

And this is another part of the transfer picture. You never know what the plans are for someone who has just beaten you to a player.

Imagine now that either Fernandez (to Madrid) or Palmer (back to Man City) are sold this summer. Or maybe even both. Then someone of Rogers profile becomes such an important target that they will just pay what is needed to get it done. For Arsenal, with 2 left wingers and 10 attackers already at the club, Rogers was not the biggest priority.

Losing Fernandez or Palmer and gaining Rogers is a step backwards. We will only really know why Chelsea went so big once the window plays out.

We are seeing similar at Tottenham. Already spent well over £200m. But we all know the outgoings will happen soon.

Their fans have got that endorphin hit of signing Tonali, Fernandes, van Hecke, Robertson and Sensei. But it is likely they had to go big on these with the likes of van der Ven and Romero set to depart, alongside Djed Spence and Vicario, as well as young talents such as Lucas Bergvall joining Luka Vuskovic out of the club.

To spend big, both Chelsea and Tottenham are having to sell to balance those books. And those coming in are not as good as those departing.

So back to Arsenal. Could we have signed Rogers for £117m? Of course we could. But the club were unwilling to go that high due to how it would impact other signings. Or it could have resulted in us needing to sell someone we did not want to.

The final factor in this is clubs will have their valuations and what they beleive they think a deal could get done at.

Say Arsenal valued Rogers at £80-£100m. Then they looked at someone like Vinicius Jr or Yan Diomande who they valued at £120-£150m. Once Rogers gets to £117m, do you keep up your pursuit of him, or do you think “there is someone better out there who does not cost much more than that” ands you then switch to the superior target.

There is so much to factor in when building your transfer window. The cost of those that come in impact what you cans pend on others, and may result in you having to sell more. and as costs rise, other players might become better options.

And that is why I will never moan about transfers. Once the window shuts, we can then have the full picture and can evaluate.

And my final point is “winning the transfer window” does not mean you will win on the pitch. Tottenham have shown us this countless times over the years. Liverpool showed us this last year.

Have a good week!

Keenos