Arsenal need to learn from Nelson with Nwaneri decision

So Reiss Nelson’s Arsenal journey is over.

Loads have criticised our decision to mutually terminate his contract, but the situation we were in is not due to the current leadership.

Nelson should have been sold in 2022 or 2023. He was still early 20s and had the “potential” tag. We probably could have got £20m for him. Instead we offered him a huge new deal on around £100k a week. I shook my head at the time.

He was clearly not good enough for Arsenal. Edu apparently wanted to tie him down to “protect his value”. That decision has cost us a lot of money.

In the end, we have had to terminate his contract as no one wanted to pay him the £100k a week. It is likely we have just paid him off the final year, costing us about £5m.

All in all, not selling Nelson in 2022 has probably cost us north of £40m. Thanks Edu!

Around the same time we had Ainsley Maitland Niles. I remember one transfer deadline, Wolves or Leicester came in offering us £20m. At the last moment we pulled the deal. Maitland Niles hardly payed the next season.

Whilst Edu is largely to blame, I will always question the involvement of Mikel Arteta in these decisions. Was he pushing Edu to keep these players, only to then decide not to play them?

Failing to sell AMN and Nelson cost us close to £50m in incoming transfer fees, and then £20-30m in wages on top. We ended up letting go of both for free.

Andrea Berta takes no blame for the Nelson situation. He tried to sell him, hawking him out to Turkey, West Ham and more. But none wanted a 26-year-old who had played so little football. Even when we reduced our asking price to just a couple of million, no one bit.

In the end, we have probably done what is best for us and the player. It may have cost us a couple of million in wages, but Nelson can now move on.

What Berta needs to ensure he does is not repeat Edu’s mistakes. And not allow Arteta to repeat his mistakes. And that is why we are where we are with Ethan Nwaneri.

Over the years, I will always point to Liverpool as the “gold star club” for selling academy players.

The have made millions cashing in on the likes of Jordan Ibe, Rhian Brewster and Fábio Carvalho (yes, I know he was Fulham). The recognise early on that a player does not quite have what it takes to make it at the highest level, and cash whilst others are still talking about “potential”. In recent memory, Liverpool have not sold a single youngster who has gone on to prove them wrong (unlike Man City).

Ethan Nwaneri is a talent. But is he good enough?

He reminds me a lot of a young Joe Cole. Plenty of talent but not really sure where he fits in.

Not quick enough to be a winger, not physical enough to play more centrally. it is a conundrum. And at Arsenal right now, he has a lot of players ahead of him.

He is not better than Bukayo Saka or Noni Madueke on the right wing. And Max Dowman has also leap frogged him despite being a couple of years younger.

More centrally we have Martin Odegaard and Eberechi Eze. Nwaneri is not on their level. The teenager would also be behind Kai Havertz and Mikel Merino. Arteta would also go for a midfield trip of Declan Rice, Bruno Guimaraes and Martin Zubimendi before Nwaneri would get a sniff.

So we have a player who is, at best, 4th choice right wing and 6th or 7th choice more centrally. We could get £40m for him in the current market. If we have learned from Nelson, we would sell.

The trick is now how we sell.

Ensure there is a buy back and sell on clause in his contract, even if that means we have to take £5m less.

Selling Nwaneri for £35m, having an option to buy him back for £60m, and a 20% sell on clause feels like it’s a good deal. It covers us for all eventualities.

Nwaneri does not kick on (like Brewster and Ibe), Arsenal have generated some decent profit. If he does kick on and become a £60-70m signing, we can either re-sign him, or further profit from his sale. A £60m sale with a 20% sell on clause would have us “break even” based on if we sold for £40m with no clause.

Whilst Nwaneri leaving will annoy many (especially for those who think he is the 2nd coming of Christ and better than Madueke and Eze). But it is the right deal, at the right time.

On a side note, I did laugh out loud this morning at Aston Villa fans.

Chelsea have turned up, signed their best player and first choice goalkeeper, and in return forced Villa to take Nicolas Jackson and Alejandro Garnacho. Villa fans celebrate this.

Meanwhile Arsenal sign a 28 year old centre back for £50m, without forcing Villa to take Reiss Nelson or Gabriel Jesus, and Man U triggered Youri Tielemans release clause. Villa fans cry about “the red cartel doing it again” and how “unfair” it is., and that it’s a disgrace that Mikel Arteta leaves his technical box.

Maybe next time we do dealings with Villa, we should offer them £100m for whatever player we want (if they have anyone decent left after this summer!), but as part of the deal force them to take Mikel Merino and Ben White for a combined £100m. They might then stop moaning about us!

Keenos

Ignore the “PSR 4”

Another transfer window, and the so called PSR 4 are at it again. Chelsea, Aston Villa, Newcastle and Nottingham forest. All doing these strange little deals with each other, summer after summer.

Whilst fans of some of the clubs look at England’s 6 biggest clubs and cry “cartel”, the PSR 4 have shown time and again over recent windows that they are in bed with each other, overpaying for average players to move money about and satisfy accountants.

Their fans “celebrate” selling and buying players at hugely inflated sums like it is a trophy. But the truth is they have all gone backwards since they begun this game.

At the centre of the PSR 4 is Chelsea. Now without a major trophy in 4 seasons, they have finished 12th, 6th, 4th and 10th since they began playing financial games.

Chelsea are now in a spiral where they need to keep doing these questionable deals to keep the business running. It could all quite quickly collapse around them and in 12-months they could be in serious financial trouble.

Whilst their fans “celebrate” these new players, Chelsea’s business these days basically involves them having to buy players they do not really want to sign and selling players they do not really want to sell. Each transfer window, they buy and sell more, giving those fans a new signing endorphin hit. But every summer their squad, their team, gets worse.

Aston Villa fans are amongst the biggest cry babies in football. Their owners have refused to invest in the infrastructure of the club, which would have led to increasing revenues. Instead, they opted to overspend on wages which left them close to spending more on players salaries than they generated in income. Whilst their fans cried that “our owners can not invest what they want”, they failed to recognise that their owners have no interest in investing. If they did, stadium enhancements (which sit outside financial rules) would have already happened.

If have lost count how many dodgy deals Villa have done. And selling Morgan Rogers and gaining Alejandro Garnacho and Nicolas Jackson sums them up.

They basically sold a player they did not went to sell, for a higher fee than they would have likely accepted. Fair enough. But to make the deal happen they have signed two players they do not really want. And the result will be they have also overspent, and their fans will be crying about how it is all unfair. It is their owners choice the route they went down when spending money.

Aston Villa may have seen some success, and risen to 4th in the league, but their financial dealings is now catching up on them. They have lost 4 key players this summer in Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne. Emi Martinez and Ollie Watkins could also be out of the door. Their slide down the table is inevitable and these silly little deals with Chelsea, etc will not save them

As for Newcastle fans, they are only slightly less annoying that Villa fans.

They cry about “having to sell Eliot Anderson due to PSR”, but ignore that around the same time they recruited Joe Willock, Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali. Maybe they should have developed their own rather than trying to just buy their way to the top.

The Newcastle project peaked in 2024/25 when they won the League Cup and finished 5th. Last season they slide to 12th and this year it looks no better. Whilst their fans celebrate “getting one over the Premier League” by being involved in PSR 4 deals, their squad continues to get weaker.

Finally Nottingham Forest. Just signed Liam Delap for huge money. I would not be surprised if Morgan Gibbs White now goes the other way. From 7th to 16th, I now have money on them to go down this season. Each time they did one of these questionable deals, they sold better players and recruited worse – just like all of the PSR 4.

Whilst fans of Chelsea, Villa, Newcastle and Forest celebrate these deals, it will eventually come to bite them on the arse. They are simply moving debt around, and not resolving their underlying financial issues. This summer, none of them have improved their squads despite huge spending. I think at least one of them will go down. And that is a victory for common sense spending over what these guys are doing.

Compare to the likes of Brighton and Brentford. Well run clubs who are both in Europe this season. You never hear their fans moan about financial unfair play or do these hugely inflated swap deals to increase revenue. They just got on with running good businesses. And they will be a success for it.

What I would say is let the PSR 4 have them transfer window endorphin hit. Ultimately, they are all becoming weaker through this alliance and things will only get worse. Their fans though will keep celebrating their transfer business because it is all about spending big in their heads, not caring who they actually sign.

Keenos

Julian Alvarez, Kenan Yildiz, Gabriel Martinelli and more…

Julian Alvarez

I have always wanted us to go nowhere near Julian Alvarez. For me he is just Gabriel Jesus MK II.

Like Jesus, Alvarez’s best performances for Manchester City came when he was 2nd choice striker. At no point did he break through and become their first choice. He is also not an out and out striker. More a utility man who can play in all attacking levels, but will struggle when playing week in, week out as the first chocie striker.

He is no Sergio Aguero, and he would struggle in the Premier League when playing up top alone.

Julian Alvarez turns 27 during this season. In his 4 seasons in Europe (and that is all it has been), he has basically had one decent league campaign – 2025/26. 45 league goals in 134 games is not exactly the sign of a £150m man.

Huge money for someone in their mid-late twenties and is still fairly “unproven” over a consistent period. Again, it reminds me of Jesus. For the way we play, Viktor Gyokeres and Kai Havertz are better suited. Hope we stay well away.

Kenan Yildiz

I have long been a fan of the German-born Turkish international. But I think ultimately a move for him will be one season too soon.

Many, including myself, saw him as a long term option on the left wing. But I actually now think he is better suited elsewhere. I would not be surprised if we go in the for Juventus man next season, with the plan to replace Martin Odegaard with him.

Odegaard will have 1-year left on his deal in 12 months, and will be a few months shy of his 29th birthday. It might become a Gabriel Martinelli situation where we do not really want to offer him another big 5 year deal. The solution may be Odegaard is sold (and possibly to Juventus) and Yildiz replaces him.

If a late move for Yildiz does happen this summer, my gut is it would be as a short-term left winger, and long-term to replace Odegaard.

Gabriel Martinelli

I am gutted he is going, but the truth is it is the best move for all involved.

It has been a delight to watch Gabi grow from boy to man. He is clearly a nice young man and has bundles of talent. But he just is not what Arsenal need anymore.

His struggles against the low blocks Arsenal face is well documented. For me he is the same level as the likes of Anthony Gordon and Bradley Barcola. He would excel at someone like Newcastle United or Aston Villa, who play more counter attacking football.

If Gabi still had 3 years left on his contract, I do not think we would be in a rush to sell. But with 1-year left, it is either sell or offer him a new deal. And he just is not worth a new deal on his current terms.

A move to Saudi may seem like a backwards step, but the reality is there is no one in Europe willing to match his £180k a week wages right now. Depart, secure the bag for a year or two, and then consider returning to Europe on a lower salary. I can certainly see him popping up at Juventus or Inter Milan at some point in the next 24 months.

Good luck Gabi. You have been a brilliant servant to the club. But we have know outgrown your talent.

Reiss Nelson, Fabio Vieira and Gabriel Jesus

It is crazy that we are here, towards the end of another window, and these 3 are still here (at the time of writing).

Now we are not the only club that has struggled to sell players (Kalvin Phillips is still a Man City player, as is Jack Grealish). But, especially in Reiss Nelson’s case, we need to really think about giving out 5-year contracts to 21-year-olds who have not really done it.

There was a right time to sell both Nelson and Ainsley Maitland-Niles. And that was about 5-years ago. We probably would have bought in a combined £50m+ for them. Instead we gave them long deals, did not play them, and their transfer value plummeted. I think this is a big reason as to why we are where we are with Ethan Nwaneri. We simply can not turn down that big money for academy products who we are 50/50 on whether they will make it.

Fabio Vieira excited me when we signed him, but it never quite worked out. He had a good season at Hamburg last season and I am surprised no one else is really in for him. A curious one.

As for Jesus, he was signed to do a job. He did that job. Injury cost him his Arsenal career. I honestly wish him a lot of luck in the future and thank him for helping to transform the mentality of Arsenal.

The window will close on Tuesday 1 September at 23:00. Will we see another Mesut Ozil surprise in these closing days?

Keenos