Trossard set to become “one of the most expensive 31-year-olds in football history”

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Leandro Trossard is off to Besiktas, and good luck to him.

The transfer has led to a bit of head scratching. Why leave Arsenal now? Could Trossard have moved to a bigger club? Why only €18m plus add-ons?

Why leave Arsenal now?

Trossard is 31-years-old. He has a year left on his contract. He is also facing what could be an expensive divorce.

The situation reminds me a lot of Ray Parlour all those years ago.

The Arsenal legend left Arsenal at the age of 31. It left fans in shock as he looked set to become a one-club-man. But it soon transpired that Parlour left to finance his divorce. 

When joining Middlesbrough, he got big wages for someone who was nearing the end of his best and a signing on fee. That move ensured that he would be financially set for life despite the groundbreaking divorce.

At 31, this summer might be the last change for Trossard to get one last big contract. Yes, his current Arsenal deal runs out in 12-months, but who knows what the next year could bring.

By leaving now, with his stock at a peak, Trossard will be on big wages which will enable him to finance whatever divorce proceedings and future payout he will be obliged to make.

Even taking the divorce out of it, a 3-year deal from Besiktas takes him through to 34. He is basically earning his retirement money.

Could Trossard have moved to a bigger club?

There is no doubt that Trossard could still do a job for a top team playing in a top league. He could easily have gone to the likes of Juventus or Atletico Madrid and taken up the similar squad role that he plays at Arsenal. But like with all transfers, money talks.

Those clubs would unlikely have offered what Besiktas are offering – both in wages and length of contract.

Turkey has become a bit of a retirement home for European-based players who do not really fancy Saudi (and the money in the desert seems to be drying up anyway

In recent years, Victor Osimhen, N’Golo Kanta, Ederson, Leroy Sane and Marco Asensio have all moved to Turkey and all earn big money despite being past their time.

Milan Skriniar, Matteo Guendouzi, Ilkay Gundogan, Davinson Sanchez, Nelson Semedo, Andre Onana and Lucas Torriera are just some more of the names who opted to “step down” to the Turkish league rather than continue to play at the highest level in Europe.

A mixture of the lesser intensity of the game out there (these stars only need to perform at 60% to be the best in the league), the wages, the Istanbul lifestyle and the low taxes for football has made Turkey a bit of a Turkey Europe’s football retirement haven.

Earn your money, enjoy a final few years in the sun, relax. It is a good life and one which was clearly attractive to Trossard.

Why only €18m plus add-ons?

As with everything Arsenal, some fans are unhappy about what they deem a low fee.

Yes, on the face of it, €18m plus add-ons is not a huge sum. But we have to remember that we are selling a 31-year-old player with just one-year left on his contract. We were not in a strong negotiating position.

It is also easy to forget that once a player turns 31, his transfer value completely plummets:

At €18m, Trossard will be the 13th most expensive player aged 31 or over since 2020.

Six of those ahead of him moved to Saudi Arabia during that crazy summer of 2023. If you exclude them, Trossardbecomes the 7th most expensive player to move clubs since 2020.

In the history of the game, only 9 players aged 31 or over have moved between two European clubs for more than the €18m we are getting for Trossard. This excludes those players that moved to the likes of Saudi Arabia, China and America.

This should bring into perspective as to what a good fee is for Trossard, especially when you consider that those who moved for more than him include Ronaldo, Lewandowski, Koulibaly and Griezmann. The only real outlier was West Ham spunking €27m on Niclas Füllkrug.

An €18m move is good for Trossard, and good for Arsenal. And in Christos Tzolis we are getting someone 7-years Trossard’s junior.

Keenos

Key Arsenal pair set for long-term lay off

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Towards the end of last season, it was clear that many of our top stars were running on empty

Martin Zubimendi completely ran out of gas in his first season in England, whilst Bukayo Saka struggled to shrug off on injury that has continued to plague him going into the World Cup. But it is the long-term fitness of two of Mikel Arteta’s key men that is of biggest concern to Arsenal management.

Arsenal medical staff are currently monitoring William Saliba’s back condition. 

The Frenchman has reportedly been managing a debilitating lower back and sciatic nerve issue and has been playing with the help of pain-relief injections in recent months. It is expected that Saliba will need to undergo back surgery on his lower discs following the World Cup, which could sideline him for up to 4 months.

In 2006/07, Thierry Henry was also managing a back issue. He was never really the same player again and the remainder of his career was plagued  by injuries.

The Saliba situation would explain why Arsenal are going for Ezri Konsa.

Whilst moving for a 28-year-old centre back might leave some scratching their head, he could be the perfect replacement for Saliba both in the short and longer term.

Konsa is Premier League ready. Once he has recovered from England’s World Cup exploits, he will require no settling in period. He has the pace and physically to deputise for Saliba and ensure we do not need to rush the Frenchman back.

Moving beyond the initial 2-4 month period of Saliba’s rehabilitation, we may need to restrict his game time in the mid-to-long-term. To put simply, Saliba may never be able to play two games a week again, worst case scenario.

We then need to take inspiration from PSG who only seemed to roll out Marquinhos for Champions League and big Ligue 1 fixtures. Could we see a situation where we keep Saliba for Europe, and potentially the cups, whilst Konsa plays in the Premier League?

It should also be remembered that Konsa has played a lot of Premier League games at right back. With Jurrien Timber having pulled out of the World Cup and Ben White perpetually injured, Konsa may be the perfect man to come in.

As already stated, Konsa is Premier League ready. He would be able to come in for both Saliba and Timber and play at a level that has seen him become one of England’s best centre backs.

If we can not get Konsa in, it is worthwhile keeping an eye on John Stones.

The veteran Englishman (still only 32) is available on a free transfer having not renewed his contract with Manchester City. He might be worth a punt to bring in to cover for Saliba without needing to spend the big bucks.

Another concern for Arsenal’s medical team is Declan Rice.

Rice is a machine. He is non-stop action. But he looks like he is on the verge of breaking down.

As the slog of last season dragged on, he was that little bit slower to get up, the odd limp came in, and he sought treatment more often. This has continued at the World Cup, with a minor injury ruling him out of England’s final group game against Panama – although had that game been important, and against better opposition, I am sure Rice would have played.

Rice has clearly been playing in the so-called “red zone” and you feel that if he is not given an elongated rest soon, a major injury could be on the horizon – and that injury could have long term consequences if he is not able to fully recover his best-in-the-world stamina.

The plan will surely be to give Rice a break until potentially even October. And throughout the season Arteta will look to rest him more often. But to do that we need to bring someone in.

Mikel Merino is fantastic, but he does not offer anything Rice does – the Spainard next season will likely be used as a box crashing impact sub when we need a goal. That will leave us needing to go into the market.

Like Konsa, Bruno Guimaraes is also Premier League ready.

We turned down the opportunity to sign the Brazilian back in 2022, instead opting to go for the duel signings of Leandro Trossard and Jorginho. Bruno went to Newcastle and has developed into one of the best midfielders in the Premier League.

With their earlier-than-England exit from the World Cup, Brazilian players would likely be fit and ready for the start of the Premier League season come the 21 August. And that could be key in the decision to go for Bruno.

If we signed Bruno, we could basically say to Rice “go away, get your weary body rested and come back in September for 4-weeks of rehabilitation ahead of coming back in the team in October”. We could then basically play Rice and Bruno once a week, with the pair rotating throughout the season without a drop off in quality.

Some will be concerned about both Konsa and Bruno being 28. But if we want ready-to-go players to come in for Saliba and Rice then that is the sort of age players we will be targeting.

We would basically be signing both knowing that they will only be with us for 4 or 5 years, and that they have zero sell on value. But that is the sort of decisions you can make when you generate record revenues. We do not need to sell to buy.

If Arsenal can take advantage of Aston Villa and Newcastle massively spending beyond their means in recent years, we could recruit Bruno and Konsa for less than a combined £150m. That would be brilliant business in the current market.

Ultimately we have a fantastic squad. This summer will all be about trying to reduce the minutes for key players next year, keeping them fresher for the business end of the season.

UTA

Keenos

Patience key for The Arsenal

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You can almost set you watch by it.

Every year, on around the 2nd or 3rd of July, fans flock to social media to cry that their club has not signed anyone yet. It honestly mystifies me, especially when many of those have lived through man, many transfer windows, and should know how things work.

I understand fans look at Tottenham with a jealous eye – once Sandro Tonali is confirmed, that will be over £200m spent on new players. But their desperate transfer spending should be expected – they can not afford another season finishing in a relegation battle.

There is a World Cup going on. And that always impacts when you buy players.

Yes, some will move during the World Cup, such as Elliott Anderson. But others will be saying to their agent “I do not want to hear from you. Speak to me after”. And if you are targetting those players, your transfer spending is on hold.

So lets look at Tottenham, whose fans are already claiming yet another transfer window win.

Their two big signings – Tonali and Mateus Fernandes – were not at the World Cup. That makes the deals much easier to do. I also think they have paid a premium for the pair. Met the asking price. Not negoatiated. Again, making them an easier deal to do.

I like both players, but we are in the market for players to act as cover for Martin Zubimendi and Declan Rice. The transfer fees and wages being spoken about are the levels of starters, not squad players.

Then you have Jan Paul van Hecke. A good signing for them. Paying £52m got the deal done quickly. The deal will make it £230m on van Hecke, Fernandes and Tonali. Huge money on players that would not even start for Aston Villa.

Tottenham basically had a free run at all of these players because everyone else had walked away. No one wanted to pay those asking prices. Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool decided there was better value eslewhere.

Tottenham have also completed free deals for 32-year-old Andy Robertson, 37-year-old Martin Dubravka and 29-year-old Marcos Senesi. Easy deals to make when the players are out of contract.

The reality is had Arsenal wanted to sign these players, at the fees and wages they are costing, we would have. But we decided not to.

When you are looking at the market and seeing £116m for Elliott Anderson, £100m for Tonali, £85m for Fernandes, you just have to laugh. And this shows whay Arsenal need to be patient.

I feel this summer, you move early tou over pay. That is what we risk doing with someone like Morgan Rogers.

Rogers is a good player, but a £130m player he is not. Considering Anthony Gordon went for £80m to Barcelona, Arsenal would expect to do a deal for in and around this figure. If we can not, we move on to another winger who represents better value. And Aston Villa are stuck with an unhappy player who has been valued out of a move to a top club.

One of those other midfielders is Christos Tzolis. The Greek winger is not at the World Cup, but the man he is replacing is.

I think Leandro Trossard will depart this summer. He potentially has a bit of a Ray Parlour situation coming up. A costle divorce at 31. Our diminutive winger might see this summer as an opportunity to go to Turkey or Saudi, get himself a huge signing on fee and silly wages, thus funding his divorce.

Tzolis is clearly lined up to replace Trossard, but we are being respectful of our current player and do not want to sign someone until Trossard confirms he wants to leave. And he will not do that until Belgium are out of the World Cup. Once Trossard gives us the nod, Tzolis will come in.

We can expect to get £20m for Trossard, and Tzolis will cost us around £30m. So a £10m net swing on a player with a similar profile and is 7-years younger. It is a good deal and we just need to remain patient whilst the dominos fall.

Like many, I was disapointed about the news of Jeremy Monga last night – Arsenal have walked away from the deal and Man City are swooping in.

Monga is clearly a talent. The reports are we were looking to pay around £6.5m, similar to what a recent tribunal ordered Liverpool to pay for Rio Ngumoha. I would say that is reasonable. But Leicester City demanded a fee north of £10m.

That led Arsenal, looking at the Ngumoha tribunal fee, and agree to “take him on a free and let the courts decide”. The result was the door was left open and City are seemingly swooping in.

Over the years, Man City have spent a lot of money recruiting the best young players from across Europe. But there is a huge swath of “where are they now” blogs with those that they signed and just seemed to disappear into the City Group’s loan system.

Many of them do get their careers back on track – think Morgan Rogers, Jeremie Frimpong, Romeo Lavia, Jadon Sancho and Felix Nmecha. But it is often a rocky path,

City are chucking millions at these young kids and families, setting them up for life. Every year more players seem to move between academies aged 16-18. Getting a £30k a week contract where their existing club only wanted to pay £10k. And then they go back to playing the same PL2 level and struggle to ever break thourhg (Chido Obi Martin anyone?).

We need to stop getting annoyed when youth players leave. Remember, our coachs know more about these kids than anyone and will know their value based on the chances of making it. Likewise, lets stop getting upset when we lose out on a Mongao or Sverre Nypan (what happened to him?).

Ultimately, spending £10m+ on a 16-year-old is a huge investment. And there is more chance he will be playing for a small club like West Ham in 5-years than being a regular at Arsenal.

And by being patient and not overpaying for Monga, we have pivoted to Georgian U21 starlet Andria Bartishvili. At just £4.5m (reportedly),  Bartishvili, like Monga, is a talented young left winger. May we have just turned down the next Jeremy Doku to sign the next Khvicha 20Kvaratskhelia?

Our deals will get done this year. Be patient. Enjoy the World Cup. Go on holiday. Stop living on social media and feeling the need to get upset about everything.

We are Champions.

Keenos