You can almost set you watch by it.
Every year, on around the 2nd or 3rd of July, fans flock to social media to cry that their club has not signed anyone yet. It honestly mystifies me, especially when many of those have lived through man, many transfer windows, and should know how things work.
I understand fans look at Tottenham with a jealous eye – once Sandro Tonali is confirmed, that will be over £200m spent on new players. But their desperate transfer spending should be expected – they can not afford another season finishing in a relegation battle.
There is a World Cup going on. And that always impacts when you buy players.
Yes, some will move during the World Cup, such as Elliott Anderson. But others will be saying to their agent “I do not want to hear from you. Speak to me after”. And if you are targetting those players, your transfer spending is on hold.
So lets look at Tottenham, whose fans are already claiming yet another transfer window win.
Their two big signings – Tonali and Mateus Fernandes – were not at the World Cup. That makes the deals much easier to do. I also think they have paid a premium for the pair. Met the asking price. Not negoatiated. Again, making them an easier deal to do.
I like both players, but we are in the market for players to act as cover for Martin Zubimendi and Declan Rice. The transfer fees and wages being spoken about are the levels of starters, not squad players.
Then you have Jan Paul van Hecke. A good signing for them. Paying £52m got the deal done quickly. The deal will make it £230m on van Hecke, Fernandes and Tonali. Huge money on players that would not even start for Aston Villa.
Tottenham basically had a free run at all of these players because everyone else had walked away. No one wanted to pay those asking prices. Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool decided there was better value eslewhere.
Tottenham have also completed free deals for 32-year-old Andy Robertson, 37-year-old Martin Dubravka and 29-year-old Marcos Senesi. Easy deals to make when the players are out of contract.
The reality is had Arsenal wanted to sign these players, at the fees and wages they are costing, we would have. But we decided not to.
When you are looking at the market and seeing £116m for Elliott Anderson, £100m for Tonali, £85m for Fernandes, you just have to laugh. And this shows whay Arsenal need to be patient.
I feel this summer, you move early tou over pay. That is what we risk doing with someone like Morgan Rogers.
Rogers is a good player, but a £130m player he is not. Considering Anthony Gordon went for £80m to Barcelona, Arsenal would expect to do a deal for in and around this figure. If we can not, we move on to another winger who represents better value. And Aston Villa are stuck with an unhappy player who has been valued out of a move to a top club.
One of those other midfielders is Christos Tzolis. The Greek winger is not at the World Cup, but the man he is replacing is.
I think Leandro Trossard will depart this summer. He potentially has a bit of a Ray Parlour situation coming up. A costle divorce at 31. Our diminutive winger might see this summer as an opportunity to go to Turkey or Saudi, get himself a huge signing on fee and silly wages, thus funding his divorce.
Tzolis is clearly lined up to replace Trossard, but we are being respectful of our current player and do not want to sign someone until Trossard confirms he wants to leave. And he will not do that until Belgium are out of the World Cup. Once Trossard gives us the nod, Tzolis will come in.
We can expect to get £20m for Trossard, and Tzolis will cost us around £30m. So a £10m net swing on a player with a similar profile and is 7-years younger. It is a good deal and we just need to remain patient whilst the dominos fall.
Like many, I was disapointed about the news of Jeremy Monga last night – Arsenal have walked away from the deal and Man City are swooping in.
Monga is clearly a talent. The reports are we were looking to pay around £6.5m, similar to what a recent tribunal ordered Liverpool to pay for Rio Ngumoha. I would say that is reasonable. But Leicester City demanded a fee north of £10m.
That led Arsenal, looking at the Ngumoha tribunal fee, and agree to “take him on a free and let the courts decide”. The result was the door was left open and City are seemingly swooping in.
Over the years, Man City have spent a lot of money recruiting the best young players from across Europe. But there is a huge swath of “where are they now” blogs with those that they signed and just seemed to disappear into the City Group’s loan system.
Many of them do get their careers back on track – think Morgan Rogers, Jeremie Frimpong, Romeo Lavia, Jadon Sancho and Felix Nmecha. But it is often a rocky path,
City are chucking millions at these young kids and families, setting them up for life. Every year more players seem to move between academies aged 16-18. Getting a £30k a week contract where their existing club only wanted to pay £10k. And then they go back to playing the same PL2 level and struggle to ever break thourhg (Chido Obi Martin anyone?).
We need to stop getting annoyed when youth players leave. Remember, our coachs know more about these kids than anyone and will know their value based on the chances of making it. Likewise, lets stop getting upset when we lose out on a Mongao or Sverre Nypan (what happened to him?).
Ultimately, spending £10m+ on a 16-year-old is a huge investment. And there is more chance he will be playing for a small club like West Ham in 5-years than being a regular at Arsenal.
And by being patient and not overpaying for Monga, we have pivoted to Georgian U21 starlet Andria Bartishvili. At just £4.5m (reportedly), Bartishvili, like Monga, is a talented young left winger. May we have just turned down the next Jeremy Doku to sign the next Khvicha 20Kvaratskhelia?
Our deals will get done this year. Be patient. Enjoy the World Cup. Go on holiday. Stop living on social media and feeling the need to get upset about everything.
We are Champions.
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 