So much of Arsenal’s business right now is dependent on the contract situation of existing players.

I am confident that had Gabriel Martinelli not had 1-year left on his contract, he would still be an Arsenal player. The issue for the club was he was a squad player on 1st XI wages, deservedly earned following his 2021/22 season, and would unlikely have been willing to negotiate a lower deal to remain at the club. The result was he was sold.

In a years time, Arsenal will be in a similar situation with both Martin Odegaard and Kai Havertz.

Over the next 12 months, Arsenal will either need to offer the pair new, extended contracts, or come to the conclusion that they will be sold in 2027. And there are plenty of questions for Andrea Berta et al to ask.

With Odegaard, the issue will be he turns 29 in December 2027. A bumper new 5-year deal will take him through until he is 33. Our captain already earns £240k a week. Even if he signs to the same deal, that will be in excess of £60m committed to him over the next 5 years.

Odegaard has been a fantastic player for Arsenal. He is a brilliant leader and contributes on and off the pitch beyond just goals. But there is always an niggle that “we could do better”. There is also a feeling that with the likes of Declan Rice, Martin Zubimendi and Bruno Guimaraes in the squad, we will transition from a 6 and 2 8s, to two 6s and a 10. And Odegaard is perhaps not as suited to playing solely as a playmaker as he is operating a bit deeper.

In the last two seasons, he seems to have digressed a little and you feel a he needs a huge season in 2026/27. If he fails to return to his form of a couple of years ago, I feel next summer could be when we look to do the upgrade.

For a long time, Juventus’ Kenan Yildiz has been on my list as potential left wing options, but I think his future could actually be more centrally.

The German-born Turkish midfielder certainly has all the attributes to become the next big number 10 in world football. Two footed, can pass, dribble, find space in tight situations and his shooting is improving.

He may not be an obvious upgrade on Odegaard from Day One, but he certainly as a higher ceiling and, combined with the experienced Eberechi Eze, I could see the pair tandeming quite well.

I can certainly see us cashing in on Odegaard next summer, and signing Yildiz to replace him. And not only that, I can actually see Odegaard going to Juventus!

Yildiz would likely cost more in transfer fee than we would get for Odegaard, but this would be offset by the lower salary – Yildiz is currently on around £100k a week. You would expect Yildiz him come in on around the £150-180k a week mark.

So by doing the switch, our finances in terms of outlay would stay fairly neutral, and we would be recruiting a much younger player with a higher ceiling. The other option would be to give Odegaard a new 5-year deal.

Kai Havertz contract also expires in 2028. He is currently our 2nd highest paid player.

Throughout this season I expect a lot of toing and throwing between Havertz and Viktor Gyokeres. The German will be more suited to some games, with the Portuguese more suited to others. What that means is Havertz is on a huge salary for someone who is not a guaranteed starter.

The sort of money Harvertz is on should be reserved for the likes of Bukayo Saka, Declan Rice, William Saliba. Players who are guaranteed to start week in, week out, and players who are amongst the best in the world in their position. Havertz is neither of these.

Arsenal have the same decision to make with Havertz over the next 12-months as they do with Odegaard – renew or sell.

Would we be comfortable offering Havertz a new 5-year deal on his current salary? I think 99% of you reading this will say no. So the likelihood is Havertz will be sold – unless this season he suddenly becomes a 30-goal a season man.

I am a huge fan of both Pio Esposito and Nicolò Tresoldi.

The pair are the right profile for a Mikel Arteta striker – tall, strong, mobile. But as it stands neither is proven, and Arsenal do not have the space in the squad for them.

Our interest in the pair has likely been parked until 2027. I would not be surprised if we have people watching them almost every game next season, and then we “pick one” to replace Havertz. And either would be an exciting talent who could quite quickly become our long term striker.

The next 12-months will certainly be interesting for Arsenal.

Alongside Odegaard and Havertz, Declan Rice, David Raya, Jurrien Timber, Mikel Merino and Ben White all have contracts expiring in 2028. Arsenal are now a very different side from when these guys were signed. We are now Champions rather than contenders. And with that comes bigger budgets and being more attractive to new players.

Berta, Arteta, et al will need to decide who is still part of the Arsenal journey and deserves a new contract, and whose time on the island has come to an end.

Like with Martinelli, those players who are departing might not be surplus to requirements, and it might just be a case of we do not want to give them another 5-years, at their current wages. And this is another reason why this summer we may have decided to hold a little back.

Secure another title in Arteta’s WIN NOW phase and then next summer we might see a squad overhaul.

Keenos

So Reiss Nelson’s Arsenal journey is over.

Loads have criticised our decision to mutually terminate his contract, but the situation we were in is not due to the current leadership.

Nelson should have been sold in 2022 or 2023. He was still early 20s and had the “potential” tag. We probably could have got £20m for him. Instead we offered him a huge new deal on around £100k a week. I shook my head at the time.

He was clearly not good enough for Arsenal. Edu apparently wanted to tie him down to “protect his value”. That decision has cost us a lot of money.

In the end, we have had to terminate his contract as no one wanted to pay him the £100k a week. It is likely we have just paid him off the final year, costing us about £5m.

All in all, not selling Nelson in 2022 has probably cost us north of £40m. Thanks Edu!

Around the same time we had Ainsley Maitland Niles. I remember one transfer deadline, Wolves or Leicester came in offering us £20m. At the last moment we pulled the deal. Maitland Niles hardly payed the next season.

Whilst Edu is largely to blame, I will always question the involvement of Mikel Arteta in these decisions. Was he pushing Edu to keep these players, only to then decide not to play them?

Failing to sell AMN and Nelson cost us close to £50m in incoming transfer fees, and then £20-30m in wages on top. We ended up letting go of both for free.

Andrea Berta takes no blame for the Nelson situation. He tried to sell him, hawking him out to Turkey, West Ham and more. But none wanted a 26-year-old who had played so little football. Even when we reduced our asking price to just a couple of million, no one bit.

In the end, we have probably done what is best for us and the player. It may have cost us a couple of million in wages, but Nelson can now move on.

What Berta needs to ensure he does is not repeat Edu’s mistakes. And not allow Arteta to repeat his mistakes. And that is why we are where we are with Ethan Nwaneri.

Over the years, I will always point to Liverpool as the “gold star club” for selling academy players.

The have made millions cashing in on the likes of Jordan Ibe, Rhian Brewster and Fábio Carvalho (yes, I know he was Fulham). The recognise early on that a player does not quite have what it takes to make it at the highest level, and cash whilst others are still talking about “potential”. In recent memory, Liverpool have not sold a single youngster who has gone on to prove them wrong (unlike Man City).

Ethan Nwaneri is a talent. But is he good enough?

He reminds me a lot of a young Joe Cole. Plenty of talent but not really sure where he fits in.

Not quick enough to be a winger, not physical enough to play more centrally. it is a conundrum. And at Arsenal right now, he has a lot of players ahead of him.

He is not better than Bukayo Saka or Noni Madueke on the right wing. And Max Dowman has also leap frogged him despite being a couple of years younger.

More centrally we have Martin Odegaard and Eberechi Eze. Nwaneri is not on their level. The teenager would also be behind Kai Havertz and Mikel Merino. Arteta would also go for a midfield trip of Declan Rice, Bruno Guimaraes and Martin Zubimendi before Nwaneri would get a sniff.

So we have a player who is, at best, 4th choice right wing and 6th or 7th choice more centrally. We could get £40m for him in the current market. If we have learned from Nelson, we would sell.

The trick is now how we sell.

Ensure there is a buy back and sell on clause in his contract, even if that means we have to take £5m less.

Selling Nwaneri for £35m, having an option to buy him back for £60m, and a 20% sell on clause feels like it’s a good deal. It covers us for all eventualities.

Nwaneri does not kick on (like Brewster and Ibe), Arsenal have generated some decent profit. If he does kick on and become a £60-70m signing, we can either re-sign him, or further profit from his sale. A £60m sale with a 20% sell on clause would have us “break even” based on if we sold for £40m with no clause.

Whilst Nwaneri leaving will annoy many (especially for those who think he is the 2nd coming of Christ and better than Madueke and Eze). But it is the right deal, at the right time.

On a side note, I did laugh out loud this morning at Aston Villa fans.

Chelsea have turned up, signed their best player and first choice goalkeeper, and in return forced Villa to take Nicolas Jackson and Alejandro Garnacho. Villa fans celebrate this.

Meanwhile Arsenal sign a 28 year old centre back for £50m, without forcing Villa to take Reiss Nelson or Gabriel Jesus, and Man U triggered Youri Tielemans release clause. Villa fans cry about “the red cartel doing it again” and how “unfair” it is., and that it’s a disgrace that Mikel Arteta leaves his technical box.

Maybe next time we do dealings with Villa, we should offer them £100m for whatever player we want (if they have anyone decent left after this summer!), but as part of the deal force them to take Mikel Merino and Ben White for a combined £100m. They might then stop moaning about us!

Keenos