Spending £80m on a nearly 28-year-old Brazilian central midfielder may feel excessive, but Arsenal only need to look at the success of Man City as inspiration in the deal.

In 2013, Man City spent £34million on a 28-year-old Brazilian midfielder plying his trade in Ukraine. Adjusted for football inflation, that would be around £80-90m in today’s market. The player on question would go on to play 384 games across 9seasons for Man City and would be the driving force behind 5 league titles and a total of 13 domestic and European honours.

For a time, Fernandinho was probably the best defensive midfielder in world football, and he was so good that City struggled for a long time to recruit a suitable long-term replacement until they signed Rodri.

Whilst £80m might see huge for Bruno Guimaraes, he is a player that can come in and make and instant impact.

Bruno is easily in the top 5 or 6 central midfielders in the league. Only really Declan Rice and Rodri are clear of him. He is then in that level below and with the likes of Moises Caicedo and Dominik Szoboszlai.

A key aspect of City’s recruitment in the last 15 years (and of the likes of Real Madrid and Bayern Munich for as long as I can remember) is their financial strength means they do not need to worry about a players “sell on value”.

Due to their financial strength, these teams can sign the best in the world regardless of their age. Players who can make and instant instant impact and this means that they never really have to go through a rebuilding phases. Man U were also in this bracket in the 90s and naughties.

Having earned record revenues last summer, Arsenal are now (temporarily at least) in a position where we can amortise £80m over a 5-year contract and be happy if that player leaves for nothing. And if that player leads us to further success, then he will go down as a very successful signing.

What it’s important is we keep the balance of the squad right. recruiting someone like Bruno is excellent in terms of keeping us at the top level. Him, Rice and Martin Zubimendi are 3 brilliant options for those two midfield spots. But Rice and Zubimendi are 27 and Bruno will soon be 29.A

All 3 have another 3-5 years at least at the top level. What we then need to ensure is we are all future proofing the squad by also recruiting and developing younger talent. You then have your “oven-ready” signings like Bruno and someone like Myles Lewis Skelly at 10-years you get compliments him nicely.

Fans also have a tendency to write off players as they approach 30. But not every player deteriorates physically at the same time. And if the player has a good attitude then they can “reinvent” themselves and begin to play deeper, or in a less physically demanding role.

For now Bruno is probably best playing further forward as a box crashing midfielder. But he certainly has the IQ and guise to end up as a full time defensive midfielder if his legs begin to go.

He actually reminds me a lot of another former-Man City midfielder: Ilkay Gundogan.

Gundogan was always a fantastic player, but he probably played his best football from 2020-2023, for the age of 30 to 33.

UTA

Keenos

Moaning about transfers achieves nothing beyond getting your own frustrations off your chest.

Whilst we may all be disappointed when we miss out on a supposed main target, we always have to remember that the club are the only ones who see the full picture. They know what business they want to do, both incoming and outgoing. And all of that business impacts on each other.

Based on what is out there right now, it is clear we are looking at a left winger, a central midfielder, and a right back come centre back to come in alongside Illan Meslier and Christos Tzolis.

After establishing the type of player they want, the club then assigns the sort of budget they are looking to invest in each position – including all transfer fees, wages, agent fees, etc. Whilst fans cry “pay the asking price”, overpaying for one player may mean you miss out on another, or have to go for a cheaper option elsewhere.

Illan Meslier on a free, for example, led to the club getting some criticism. But by recruiting him – as either the 2nd or 3rd choice keeper remember – we ensure that we have more funds left for other positions. Likewise, Tzolis for around £30m will ensure that our trio of main targets is not affected.

I truly believe the club are targetting:

• A left winger in the region of £80-£100m
• A central midfielder in the region of £60-80m
• A rigth back come centre back in the region of £40-60m.

If we recruit those at the bottom end of our prices, we spend £180m. At the top end of the prices, it is £240m. Alongside Tzolis and Hincapie that will be around £300m spent this summer. Add in the wages, agent fees, etc and that is likely our budget. The club will know exactly what this figure is.

But now we get the selling clubs asking price.

Morgan Rogers has seemingly gone to Chelsea for £117m. Newcastle initially demanded £100m for Bruno. Were we to just pay the asking price, that would be £217m, leaving just £23m in the pot for a new right back/centre back. Overpaying leads you having to make sacrifices elsewhere, and Chelsea have shown this.

Under BlueCo, Chelsea have built a reputation for coming in late and moving quick for major signings, usually paying the asking price. It is how they signed Rogers from under Arsenal’s nose. And how they recruited Romeo Lavia and Moises Caicedo who were both seemingly Liverpool bound. But this sort of behaviour by Chelsea creates financial risk.

Chelsea continually to overpay in the transfer market. And whilst they might give their fans that endorphin of beating a rival to a player, it is ultimately at the detriment of the club.

Paying the asking price and spending big on long term contracts has basically ruined Chelsea. Whilst Liverpool and Arsenal’s more “sensible” approach has seen them win the last two league titles, Chelsea have finished 4th and 10th.

Chelsea have huge financial problems. And what that means is they are constantly having to sell players to buy. And that creates a problem when it is selling your better players.

Marc Cucerella has already departed this summer to Real Madrid. And who will now depart to finance Rogers. It will likely be either Enzo Fernandez or Cole Palmer. That will be two of their 3 best players gone to finance their chatoic transfer policy.

And this is another part of the transfer picture. You never know what the plans are for someone who has just beaten you to a player.

Imagine now that either Fernandez (to Madrid) or Palmer (back to Man City) are sold this summer. Or maybe even both. Then someone of Rogers profile becomes such an important target that they will just pay what is needed to get it done. For Arsenal, with 2 left wingers and 10 attackers already at the club, Rogers was not the biggest priority.

Losing Fernandez or Palmer and gaining Rogers is a step backwards. We will only really know why Chelsea went so big once the window plays out.

We are seeing similar at Tottenham. Already spent well over £200m. But we all know the outgoings will happen soon.

Their fans have got that endorphin hit of signing Tonali, Fernandes, van Hecke, Robertson and Sensei. But it is likely they had to go big on these with the likes of van der Ven and Romero set to depart, alongside Djed Spence and Vicario, as well as young talents such as Lucas Bergvall joining Luka Vuskovic out of the club.

To spend big, both Chelsea and Tottenham are having to sell to balance those books. And those coming in are not as good as those departing.

So back to Arsenal. Could we have signed Rogers for £117m? Of course we could. But the club were unwilling to go that high due to how it would impact other signings. Or it could have resulted in us needing to sell someone we did not want to.

The final factor in this is clubs will have their valuations and what they beleive they think a deal could get done at.

Say Arsenal valued Rogers at £80-£100m. Then they looked at someone like Vinicius Jr or Yan Diomande who they valued at £120-£150m. Once Rogers gets to £117m, do you keep up your pursuit of him, or do you think “there is someone better out there who does not cost much more than that” ands you then switch to the superior target.

There is so much to factor in when building your transfer window. The cost of those that come in impact what you cans pend on others, and may result in you having to sell more. and as costs rise, other players might become better options.

And that is why I will never moan about transfers. Once the window shuts, we can then have the full picture and can evaluate.

And my final point is “winning the transfer window” does not mean you will win on the pitch. Tottenham have shown us this countless times over the years. Liverpool showed us this last year.

Have a good week!

Keenos

I think we all have a right to be a little bit disappointed that we did not get Morgan Rogers over the line.

Ultimately, Chelsea have come in and committed over £200m to the transfer – £117m, £10m in agent fees an a 7-year £250k a week deal. Arsenal were just not willing to match that offer.

On one hand, I get the argument of “the market has shifted and this is what players of Rodgers quality costs. We now need to shift our mindset”.

On the other, Berta, Arteta et al will know exactly what our budget is this summer on transfer fees, wages, etc. And maybe they had a limit of £80m and £200k a week for Rogers. Had we matched what Chelsea are paying, it might have impacted our other transfer targets.

And ultimately, a left winger (or forward in general) is not a priority right now.

Trossard OUT, Tzolis IN meas we still have two left wingers at the club.

And in total we have 10 attacking players for 4 positions (Gyokeres, Havertz, Merino, Tzolis, Martinelli, Saka, Madueke, Dowman, Odegaard, Eze). We are fully stocked in attack unless someone leaves.

In midfield we have just 4 players for 4 positions. And two of those are MLS, with a handful of appearance in midfield, and Norgaard. Only Rice and Zubimendi are top top quality. And Rice is potentially looking at a spell on the sidelines.

Moving into defence, we have 7 defenders for 4 positions. But two of those (Saliba and White) will not be fit for the start of the season. That leaves us with just 6 defenders – and a further two in Calafiori and Timber also have their injury problems.

So right now, going into the new season, taking into account the players who are coming out do the World Cup with injures (all named above plus Saka), we have:

9 attackers
3 central midfielders
6 defenders

And maybe this is why we are not prioritising another forward beyond Tzolis? And the focus is on the likes of Bruno and Konsa.

Morgan Rogers, a British transfer for someone who was not in his countries strongest XI, was no longer a priority for Arsenal.

Keenos