After winning the league, Mikel Arteta will be reluctant to change too much – especially after the example set by Liverpool last season in one of the worst title defences this century. However, in football if you stand still you go backwards.
What I think Arteta will do this season is more tactical tweaks rather than wholesale changes.
Arteta’s set up
Since coming in, Mikel Arteta’s tactics have been fairly static:
Starting ion midfield, Arteta has tended to play a single out and out defensive midfielder – firstly Thomas Partey and then Martin Zubimendi.
To ensure that man does not get over run in midfield, the fullbacks defend narrower, in the position that has become known as “inverted full backs”. First Oleksander Zinchenko, then Jurrien Timber, he has played with at least one of his full backs dropping inside to make the extra man in midfield.
Ahead of his sole defensive midfielder, Arteta has tended to play 2 central midfielders – Granit Xhaka and Martin Odegaard, with Xhaka then replaced by Declan Rice.
This hardworking midfield makes us hard to break down, allows us to press high, but also sacrifices some creativity to create defensive overloads across the pitch. It has also led to the misprofiling of Martin Odegaard.
The Norwiegian captain has never really played in the traditional 10 role for Arsenal – that being high up the pitch, behind a striker, playing centrally.
For much of his Arsenal career, he has played in that right hand side 6 pocket, coming deep to pick up the ball off the defensive midfielder, and progressing through the right hand side. You very seldom see Odegaard out on the left, our even central, and he rarely just loiters high up the field waiting for the ball to come to him in attacking positions.
I would argue that we have utilised Odegaard in his best position – he is more of a 8 than a 10.
On the right hand side, we then have Bukayo Saka who can go on the inside or out, creating an overload with Odegaard. That used to be a treble overload with Ben White acting as a more traditional overlapping full back.
Gabriel Martinelli tended to hug the touchline on the left, giving Declan Rice more space to play inside. Although recently we have seen Leandro Trossard play more in the inside pocket, with both Piero Hincape and Riccardo Calafiori playing as more traditional overlapping full backs – this was to be expected as the inverted full back began to be Timber of the right rather than one of the left backs.
So how do we move on from this set up, giving us more creativity, making use a greater threat, without an huge overhaul?
A return to 4231
I expect next season, Arsenal to return to the more traditional 4231 formation which worked so well for Jose Mourinho’s early days at Chelsea.
One reason I think we will see this change is due to two positions we look to recruit for – Morgan Rogers and another defensive midfielder.
Following the progress of Myles Lewis Skelly, I did not think we needed cover and competition for Martin Zubimendi anymore – the Hale Ender has shown on the highest level that he can compete with the best midfielders in the world.
Rice and Mikel Merino, Zubimendi and MLS, Odegaard and Eberechi Eze. I did not feel we need more than that. Two players for each position and plenty of options to either set up more attacking or more defensively. But we are still being linked to new midfielders.
Either journalists have not been updated by whoever provides their transfer gossip since the MLS breakthrough, or Arsenal are simply still in the market for someone. And I think it is still the latter.
The only conclusion, therefore is Arsenal are going back to playing two defensive midfielders. Think Petit/Gilberto and Vieira or Fabregas and Flamini. At Chelsea for so long it was Claude Makelele alongside Michael Essien. One player to sit, the other to drive forward.
Zubimendi and Rice will be out starters, and MLS is capable of playing both either the sitter role or in Rice’s driving role – however Merino is inefficient in the deeper role; to slow, doesnt cover the ground, not great driving with the ball.
The new midfielder, therefore, will either be a defensive minded passer like Zubimendi, or someone who can drive forward with the ball like Rice. I think it will be the later and we will sign someone who can put in the defensive shift of Rice, cover the ground, and be the line breaker in the middle. That would leave MLS to cover for Zubimendi.
But what for the defence?
Moving backwards, a two man midfield would mean we no longer need the full backs to drop inside to create the extra man. They return to being overlapping full backs, getting chalk on their boots and bombing forward.
This certainly suits Calafiori and Hincape as well as White, but not really Timber.
I still expect Timber to be first choice next season, but I think we can all expect us to sign a White replacement and have that option of a traditional full back to continue helping create an overload with Saka – and that will be especially important when you consider the future for Martin Odegaard.
Odegaard’s future
It will be harsh to “get rid of the captain” who has just helped his team to the league title for the first time in 22-years. Odegaard has been a hugely influential figure on and off the pitch. But this Arsenal team is about to outgrow him.
If we play with that double pivot of Zubimendi and Rice, we no longer need Odegaard to drop deep. Instead he will be expected to play that bit closer to the forward, and covering horizontally from left to right rather than vertically up and down.
That will mean less of a focus on creating the overloads with Saka (hence the importance of a right back that can get forward) and more sharing his support on both flanks.
Whilst still being involved in the defensive shape of the team – there is no point Viktor Gyokeres pressing if the midfielder behind him does not follow, the switch from two 8s to one 10 will mean that creating chances becomes that midfielders main job. And I am not sure that plays to Odegaard’s strangths.
It is interesting that this summer we are being linked with Julian Alvarez and Eli Kroupi. These are certainly forwards that prefer to play behind a striker rather than your out and out centre forward. You could certainly see the pair buzzing around Gyokeres, picking up on those knock downs and providing a goal threat from deeper.
And the wingers
If we do transition from 2 8s to an out and out 10, you then create a lot more space in the final 3rd. No longer will Saka and Martinelli have a midfielder within 10 yards almost every time they receive the ball.
Instead, they will look up and see inviting space inside them to drive into. And in turn, when they drag their full backs centrally it leaves the space for the overlapping fullbacks on the outside.
Saka is more than good enough playing in this sort of role – able to go inside and out he will thrive. But Martinelli is a speedster who does not look to go inside early and could not be involved in too much of the build up play. One man who would thrive is Morgan Rogers.
So you end up almost in the Arsene Wenger Invincible days, with two full backs looking to get forward (Cole and Lauren), a midfield 2 with one who sits and one who drives (Gilberto and Vieira), a second striker behind the centre forward (Dennis Bergkamp) and two wingers that look to get inside and support the second striker rather than hang on the fringes of the game (Freddie Ljungberg and Robert Pires).
Finally…
These changes are only subtle. Asking full backs to play wider and get forward a bit more, asking Rice to sit a bit deeper. All this will come naturally.
You then have the big evolution of the forward line with the recruitment of a left winger who can come inside, a someone who offers more than Odegaard behind a striker.
The changes will also suit the reserve players – Kai Havertz is an option both as the highest centre forward and someone to play just behind, Eze would be comfortable playing off that left hand side or as a back up 10, and Noni Madueke also offers a lot covering Saka.
It will be quiet evolution this summer rather than Liverpool-esque revolution. And this is the best way to make a championship winning team better!
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 