It was brilliant news that Mikel Arteta has signed a new contract. Anyone that disagrees with this fact must hold some sort of grudge. Likely going back to Arteta snubbing them as a player when, as a grown man, they used to hang about the training ground begging for shirts to be signed.
So 2030. Another 4-years of challenging for titles under Super Mik Arteta. Another 4-years of trusting the process.
Arteta’s Arsenal are in the “WIN NOW” phase. The signings of Ezri Konsa and Bruno Guimaraes, two established Premier League superstars, highlight that Arteta is now building for the future. He wants glory. And it wants it this season. And next.
But this brings with it a risk.
As we have seen with Liverpool, if you do not prepare for the future you end up with a group of players all reaching the end of their peak at the same time. They will be on huge wages, which leaves you little budget to consider signing the “next big things” and what ends up happening is a few years in the wilderness whilst you rebuild a team, rather than a transition as 20-somethings take over from 30-somethings.
Manchester United have spent nearly 15-years in this wilderness following Sir Alex Ferguson’s (and theirs) last league title. It was a championship built on Rio Ferdinand, Nemanja Vidic, Michael Carrick, Robin van Persie, Wayne Rooney and Patrice Evra. The majority of which were beyond 30, and all of which were nearing the end, or at the end, of their peak.
Arteta’s job over the next 4-years is not to only win now, but also to ensure that he does not go into the 30s with an ageing squad past their best, or handover a creaking squad to the next man.
So just how would Arteta’s current Arsenal look in 2030?
Come 2030, David Raya will be 35. As a keeper who relies on reflexes rather than his frame, he will likely be at the end of his time with us. He may not even make it through to 2030. But coming through the wings we have Tommy Setford.
Now it is notoriously difficult to come through at a top team as a goalkeeper. You just do not get the game time to develop, to make your mistakes as you grow. That is why Setford’s loan deals, and patience, are going to be important.
Come 2030, Setford would be 24. Still young for a keeper. Hopefully he would have had 3 progressive loan deals under his belt (currently at Stevenage), the last of which being either in the Premier League, Bundesliga, or other top league. If he is good enough, he will get his chance.
Jurrien Timber will still only be 29 in 2030, as will William Saliba. Riccardo Calafiori and Piero Hincapié will be just 28 and Cristhian Mosquera 26. These guys will have plenty still left in the tank. There is also Marli Salmon who will be just 21…
Gabriel Magalhães at 32 might be coming to the end of his time, but then again he has never been a defender who has relied on his pace. You could easily see him playing through till he is 34 or 35 at the highest level. Likewise, Ezri Konsa will also be 32. We do not really need to think too much about succession planning for these guys as those mentioned above will still in in their late 20s. Succession planning for the defence will probably start in 2030, not need to be done by.
In midfield, Martin Odegaard will be 31. I would not be surprised if he leave us before 2030. Maybe even next summer. Eberechi Eze (32), Mikel Merino (34) and Bruno Guimaraes (32) will likely all be either gone, or in their last season.
That will still leave us with Declan Rice (31), Martín Zubimendi (31), Myles Lewis-Skelly (24) as midfield options, with Bukayo Saka (29), Christos Tzolis (28) and Max Dowman (20) as attacking options. Despite being just 28 in 2030, I expect Noni Madueke to have departed to make way for Dowman.
Up front it is a bit more tricky. Kai Havertz will be 31 and Viktor Gyokeres 32. I would be very surprised if either are still with us in 2030.
So lets now look at 2030/31. What would be the starting XI based on players currently with us who would still have plenty to give. And where do we need to look to recruit?
Setford
Timber Saliba Mosquera Calafiori
MLS
Saka Rice
Dowman ????? Tzolis
Declan Rice would be the only man in our 2030/31 that would be over 30, and he would be just 31. With his footballing brain, playing a more static role, or even going back to centre back, would be an easy transition for Rice as his legs go.
Then backing the above up, we would still have the likes of Zubimendi, Salmon, Hincapie, as well as Gabriel or Konsa as an “older” option at just 32. This leaves us, in the next 4 years, to only really need to recruit a new right back, central midfielder, Odegaard replacement, left winger and two strikers.
Arteta can be in his win now phase because most of his players are all just entering their peak. There is not a huge amount of succession planning needing to be done. Much of it is already done. And the reast will happen naturally as we improve our squad year on year rather than having to buy the future.
Here is to another 4-years (at least) Mikel!
Keenos
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