There’s nothing quite like the first game of a new Premier League season. Everyone’s on zero points, everyone’s got a fresh excuse for optimism, and suddenly every summer signing looks like the missing piece.

For Arsenal, though, Friday night is a little different. They’re not just starting a new campaign — they’re starting the defence of their Premier League title. The Gunners welcome newly promoted Coventry City to the Emirates, with Mikel Arteta’s side expected to get off to a winning start.

And if Arsenal’s Community Shield performance is anything to go by, Coventry could have picked a slightly nicer fixture for their return to the big time.

Arsenal were excellent against Manchester City last weekend, cruising to a 3-0 victory and looking every inch a side ready to go again. Riccardo Calafiori, Kai Havertz and Martin Ødegaard got the goals, while new signing Christos Tzolis made an immediate impression with two assists.

That’s probably the biggest headache for Coventry. Arsenal have quality all over the pitch, and they now have even more depth to work with.

Bruno Guimarães is the headline addition, arriving from Newcastle in a £75m deal, although there is a question mark over whether he’ll feature after picking up a leg issue in the Community Shield. Declan Rice may also be managed carefully after only playing 45 minutes last weekend.

Still, even with a couple of players missing or being eased in, Arsenal have plenty of weapons. Bukayo Saka, Ødegaard and Havertz can cause serious problems, while the home side should be looking to dominate possession and pin Coventry back.

For Coventry, this is about as tough as Premier League returns get.

After 25 years away from the top flight, Frank Lampard’s side have been handed a trip to the reigning champions on the opening night. They then face Manchester City in their next fixture, so the fixture computer really hasn’t shown much sympathy.

But that might actually make this a free hit for Coventry. Nobody seriously expects them to stroll into the Emirates and boss Arsenal, so Lampard’s team can simply go out there, compete and see what happens.

Coventry have also invested heavily over the summer, reportedly spending around £100m on new recruits as they prepare for life back in the Premier League. They’ve got every intention of staying up rather than treating this as a one-season adventure.

The key for them will be surviving the early pressure. If they can frustrate Arsenal for the first 20 or 30 minutes, the crowd could get a little twitchy. But if Arsenal score early, it could become a very long evening.

So, what’s the prediction?

It’s difficult to look past Arsenal here. The champions are at home, they’ve already shown good form, and they’ve got the confidence that comes with finally winning the title last season.

Coventry will give it a go, and there’s every chance they make things awkward for a while. But over 90 minutes, Arsenal should simply have too much.

Prediction: Arsenal 3-0 Coventry.

A new season, a new challenge and, Arsenal fans will hope, another title charge. Not a bad way to kick things off.

DJ

A lot has been written over recent years about Arsenal having a larger net spend than its rivals. This always comes from a negative standpoint in an attempt to highlight that Arsenal are the “biggest spenders” and therefore should not have additional praise for beating Manchester City, Chelsea, et al to the Premier League title.

Now I concede that over the years, Arsenal have not been the best sellers.

Our club record sale still remains Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain at around £35m. That is clearly not great. And this is further compounded by us getting nothing for the likes of Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang, Mesut Ozil, Sead Kolasinac, Alexandre Lacazette, Hector Bellerin, Nicolas Pepe, Kieran Tierney and Ainsley Maitland-Niles in recent years.

One area where we certainly need to improve is in the selling of academy graduates.

Had we sold them earlier, the likes of Maitland-Niles, Reiss Nelson could have pocketed us in excess of £30m. Instead we held on, offered big new contracts and, if Nelson leaves for nothing this summer, got £0 for them. This is why I would not be upset to see Ethan Nwaneri depart this summer if Mikel Artera does think think he quite has it.

But there is another side to this “net spend” coin that is rarely talked about – having a high net spend would show that you have actually bought well.

From 2021 to 2026… this is Manchester City's transfer spend, transfer sales and net spend in comparison to Arsenal.

Mind blowing🤯🤯🤯 pic.twitter.com/KqwoE3b99p

— Luke🏆🏆🏆 (@Komps4) August 19, 2026

Now I do not know the accuracy of this image. The Manchester City figure does feel a very low. But on the face of it, the tweet shows that Arsenal have been poor in the transfer market, having a net spend nearly £700m more than Man City. Chelsea fans have also posted similar infographics in recent years.

The story these sort of graphics do not tell, however, is that many teams who have a high total sales do so because they have bought poorly, and those sales are them dumping players that did not work out.

Meanwhile, Arsenal have bought brilliantly since 2021, had very little turnover of players and therefore very little need to sell. The result is a settled squad which led to the first title in 22 years and has us as favourites this summer. And this is reflected through our high net spend.

Manchester City have already dumped Tijjani Reijnders and James Trafford – both signed last season. Whilst also set to be out of the door this summer are Nico Gonzales, Omar Marmoush and Savinho; all of whom have only been at the club for 18 months. That is over £200m worth of talent signed in the last 18-months deemed not good enough and sold.

If all 3 depart, that will be 6 of the 15 players Man City signed since January 2025 that they have sold. That is very poor. Meanwhile, Arsenal have sold just one player signed since 2023 – Christian Norgaard. And in that period we have finished above City 2 out of 3 times, with both clubs having a league title each.

So this is how it works.

Arsenal sign £500m worth of talent. That £500m worth of talent performs so the club does not need to sell. They then have a £500m net spend over the period.
Man City sign £500m worth of talent. £200m of that talent does not perform and is sold. Man City recoup much of the sale price. They have a net spend of £300m over the period.

Why would it be deemed a negative that one team buys well and wins the league, whilst another team buys poorly and dumps players within 18-months? It is only really seen bad to those who put weight on net spend tables.

Let me lay out another scenario.

Arsenal sign Declan Rice for £100m. He performs well and does not spend to be sold. He then shows as a £100m cost, with £0 sale value, on a net spend table.

Than you have Nico Gonzalez. He is signed for £50m. He performs poorly and is later sold for £50m. 6-months after Gonzalez joins, Man City sign Tijjani Reijnders for £55m. He performs poorly and is later sold for £55m. Then Man City spend £65m on Ayyoub Bouaddi

There net spend during that period across the 3 players is £65m. That is £35m less than what Arsenal spent on Declan Rice. Brilliant business by Man City on the net spend tables. But the reality is they are set to be on their 3rd attempt to buy a central midfielder since failing to sign Rice, whilst Declan Rice has been a huge success at Arsenal.

And when it comes to amortisation and book value, net spend means nothing. A player leaving for nothing after 7 or 8 successful years is not accounted for in net spend tables and is seen as a negative transfer move by those only considered with net spend. Meanwhile a player leaving after 12-18 months having been a poor signing is seen as a positive transfer move by the net spend obsessed.

Spending £2bn and receiving £1bn in transfer fees (Chelsea), is not the sign of a well run club. It is the sign of a team that churns through players.

Then you have Arsenal who spend £1bn, have received £200m and have a similar net spend to Chelsea during that period. All that means is we signed players who have been a success, and have not felt the need to continually buy and sell in an attempt to find a formula that works. Arteta has already found that formula. And we are Champions.

Ultimately, our high net spend over the last 5-years is a credit to our buying strategy. And winning the title shows it has been a success.

Keenos

PS: the real net spend table from 2021 is below:

After a huge flirtation with The arsenal, Vinicius Jr now has a an improved contract offer from Real Madrid to ponder.

There was always a risk that Vini Jr’s representatives were using Arsenal to try and force Madrid’s hand after more than a year of stalemate over his new contract. Whether the new deal is enough to keep the Brazilian in Spain is still a case of “wait and see”, but the it feels like he is more liekly to sign right now than leave.

So where does that leave Arsenal, having stepped away from Morgan Rogers to chase Vinicius Jr?

Firstly, I must caveat that whilst I would be disappointed to miss out on Vini Jr, I would prefer to be trying to sign the best players in the world than not be in the market for them. We are Premier League champions. Champions League finalists. We need to be aiming to sign ceiling raisers like Vini Jr now.

Since Dennis Bergkamp, we have probably only signed three players who could have been considered amongst the best in the world when they joined – Mesut Ozil, Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and Declan Rice.

Go nowhere

It might only be two pre-season friendlies in, but new boy Christos Tzolis looks sharp.

Beyond a few YouTube clips, it is unlikely anyone had watched much of the Greek winger prior to signing. His name only really ringing a bell from when Norwich City signed him as a youngster. Signed to replace Leandro Trossard, Tzolis has shown real quality in his two appearances so far.

Missing out on Vini whilst securing Tzolis could end up as impactful as missing out on Mykhailo Mudryk and signing Trossard. That all worked out well…

Alongside Tzolis we still have Gabriel Martinelli.

Vinicius Jr’s “understudy” for Brazil provides the raw pace that only really Noni Madueke also gives the squad. Still only 25, his contract runs out in a year, but Arsenal do retain an option to extend for a further 12-months.

Having Tzolis and Martinelli means we do not need to rush into the transfer market. If the right player is not available at the right pace, we have that option to stick.

Hijack Bradley Barcola

The PSG winger has been heavily linked to a move to Liverpool for £100m.

Arsenal were reportedly looking at Bradley Barcola this summer, but opted to firstly prioritise Rogers, and then switch to Vinicius Jr. That double snub may make it hard to go in late for Barcola, with the Frenchman knowing that he was basically our 3rd choice. But money talks in football.

Personally I do not want to see us splash £100m on Barcola. He is basically a French Martinelli who relies on running into space behind, and has fairly average shooting and crossing. It would feel a bit “Emperors new clothes” if we cashed in on Martinelli and signed Barcola.

Go young

If the decision is still to sell Martinelli this summer, the door may still be open for a couple of youngsters.

The first name to spring to mind is Kenan Yildiz. I have long been a fan of the Juventus player and he looks ready to break out as the next global superstar.

Antonio Nusa is another youngster we have been linked with. Another bright prospect but maybe a bit too raw for us right now. In a bit of an oddity, in 2024 Club Brugge sold Nusa to RB Leipzig. His replacement was some Greek fella from Norwich City.

Another name that has popped up a couple of times this summer is Mika Godts. Like Nusa, he looks too raw. It is also likely that he will join PSG to replace Barcola.

Other than Yildiz, I think many of the youngsters we have been linked to are just to raw, and not on the level of Martinelli. We would be better off keeping our pockets filled and monitor them for a further year to see who may break out. Even if that costs us more.

Back to Julian Alvarez

I was never sold by the Julian Alvarez deal. I think he is overrated.

Like Gabriel Jesus, his best performances in the Premier League came as cameos off the bench. He is not really a striker, not really a midfielder, not really a number 10. It would be huge money for a player who we would not really have the space for.

Mikel Arteta seems to like him though….

A Real Madrid loan?

If Vinicius Jr stays and Yan Diomande signs, Real Madrid will have arguably the best front 3 in world football alongside Kylian Mbappe. But their back-up players might be looking, wondering where they may get their opportunity.

We were linked heavily with Rodrgyo a year ago. Could there be a loan with an option to buy opportunity here? Brahim Diaz is another who may consider his future lies elsewhere. and then you have Endrick and Franco Mastantuono.

Not too long ago, the teenage pair were considered the future of Real Madrid. But their pathway has just become a little more complicated due to Diomande’s impending signing. And the Ivorian is still teenager himself.

If we have not upset Real Madrid with our pursuit of Vinicius Jr, could we go back to them and secure one of their other forwards on loan for the season? One to watch maybe.

Jamal Musiala

An outside bet…

What do you think Arsenal should do if Vinicius Jr stays at Real Madrid? Leave us a comment

Keenos