I go away for a few days and all hell breaks out!

Whilst away, the Manchester City verdict was leaked, the Premier League made a statement and Man City made their own statement. In between there were videos to staff, and more doubling down by City officials on their defence. Plenty has already been written on this, so we won’t dwell too much on what has already happen.

Looking to the future, the big question now is “what will Man City’s punishment be?”. Before we get to that, Man City have until Friday 2 October to appeal. They will appeal. And their “irrefutable evidence” seems to be that money given to sponsors was from the Abu Dhabi (AD) government, and not Man City’s owners, Abu Dhabi United Group.

Mansour bin Zayed Al Nahyan is the founder of ADUG, who own 81% of Manchester City.

He is also a current vice president and deputy prime minister of the United Arab Emirates, as well as the minister of presidential court and member of the ruling family of Abu Dhabi. He is the brother of the current president of the UAE, Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, and is married to Sheikha Manal bint Mohammed Al Maktoum, daughter of Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai.

Previous leaks of internal documents show that the Abu Dhabi government manages the accounts belonging to ADUG. ADUG insists it is separate from the Abu Dhabi government. This will be key, but only for some of the charges.

So what will Man City’s punishment look like?

Breaching Premier League Profitability and Sustainability regulations (2015-2018)

Manchester City have been found guilty of 114 breaches of the Premier League’s financial rules. 7 of those cover a breach of the Premier League Profitability and Sustainability regulations between 2015-2018.

Whilst the 7 charges may be the one of the smallest, they are perhaps the easiest to judge and may be in the most impactful. They are also an aspect of the case that Man City’s irrefutable evidence can not defend.

In recent years, Everton got a 10-point deduction for a PSR breach. This was reduced to 6-points on appeal as they self-reported the breach. A second breach saw them get a 2 point deduction. Nottingham Forest have also received a four-point deduction for breaching Premier League profit and sustainability rules.

So that sets the baseline for a breach at 2-10 points, with mitigating circumstances including how much they breached the rules for, whether they self-reported, and whether they cooperated with the Premier League. We can strike those last two off as we know City did not report themselves, nor did they cooperate.

The 7 breaches cover 3 seasons. You do not get multiple point deductions for multiple breaches in a season. They are batched together when the authorities consider the severity of the breach. So for the 3 seasons of PSR breaches, I would expect a point deduction of 18 to 30 points minimum (IE along the lines of Everton’s biggest punishment, and what it was reduced to on appeal).

History as shown that PSR breaches lead to point punishments and not financial punishments.

Failure to provide accurate financial reports for player and manager compensation (2009-2018)

14 of the breaches are a failure to provide accurate player and manager payments. We already know at least one of these relate to Roberto Mancini’s “double contract”.

ADUG will continue to maintain that having two separate contracts with two separate organisations is perfectly fine. That Mancini, and others, were paid by ADUG for their employment by Man City, and then paid separately for consultancy work outside of Manchester City.

Over the years there have often been rumours similar to this.

When David Beckham, for example, joined Real Madrid, there were rumours that Adidas were “covering” part of his salary as they wanted their most marketable player to be playing for their most marketable team. No evidence of this ever existed and it was always just paper talk / internet rumours.

There is, however, evidence of Mancini’s contract. And I imagine evidence of other contracts have been found.

If Man City can not definitively prove that the contracts were completely separate, the additional payments will be added to those years for PSR / FFP reporting. If that creates an new breach in a new season not already accounted for, it will see the above punishment for PSR breaches extended beyond the initial 3 seasons.

Additional punishments will likely come in the form of huge fines.

Chelsea were recently fined £10m by the Football Association for breaching rules relating to payments to agents between 2009 and 2022 and handed a suspended two-window transfer ban.

Now it has to be remembered that Chelsea self-reported, the irregularities were with the previous owner, and they cooperated with the authorities. None of this applies to Man City.

But the precedent set here is that fines and (potentially) suspended transfer bans can be given out for failing declare payments.

So we will see those payments applied to previous seasons, point deductions if this leads to a FFP / PSR breach, fines and a likely transfer ban.

Failure to provide accurate and up-to-date financial information (2009-2018)

Sponsors received financial grants from AD which enabled them to pay Man City over market value for deals. That is not for discussion. What is for discussion is the relationship between AD and ADUG. Are they basically two different limbs on the same body?

If yes, the charge stands. If Man City’s irrefutable evidence distances them enough, then the charges may fall.

As above, if the charges stand, the first ask will be to remove the increased revenue from Man City’s income sheet for those years. this will likely lead to further PSR / FFP breaches for those years. The result will be point deductions.

For those seasons where point deductions have not already bee applied, it will be no deductions. For those where they have already been applied, the point deduction may increase if the PSR breach significantly increases.

As with the player and manager compensation, the authorities will also likely look to hand over a big fine and further transfer window ban (potentially suspended) to punish this act.

Whilst it might be 54 charges, this will not equate to 54 x 6 or 10 for PSR breaches. The points deduction will be per season of the breach, not the total breaches within a season. The extent of the breach per season is what will determine how many points per season.

Failure to comply with UEFA’s regulations, including Financial Fair Play Regulations

Probably the least important charge as it relates to UEFA and not Premier League.

Unlikely that the Premier League will be able to do anything here beyond passing the information across to UEFA for them to investigate.

Failure to co-operate with Premier League investigations (2018-2023)

Finally, perhaps the most charges with the biggest unknown quantity.

In previous charges to clubs, they have been rewarded for cooperating with the authorities. This has led to reductions in point deductions and transfer window bands being suspended. Man City have not cooperated throughout, nor have they shown any remourse.

Even if the irrefutable evidence defends some of the charges, it does not bat away this charge. This charge is all about Man City failing work with the Premier League, witnesses not appearing to give evidence, supposed evidence not being submitted, and Man City doing everything they could do block the Premier League’s investigation.

The result will be there are no mitigating circumstances. Punishments will not be reduced on appeal. Bans will not be suspended. But there is a 2nd unknown quantity to this. What happens to those individuals who failed to cooperate or lied?

Football banning orders could be handed out to those Man City executives and employees who failed to cooperate with the investigation, who actively blocked it, and who lied. This could be anywhere between a year or two, all the way through to a life ban from all football activities. We saw this in Italy with Juventus recently.

So we could be in a situation where the owners of Man City, the chairman of the club, CEO, and other executives could be facing some sort of ban for the irregularities and their failure to cooperate. This could be huge.

So far, I have not spoken about “expulsion from the Premier League”. I do not think there is a precedent for this for PSR breaches or financial irregularities. This causes a headache as it is not relegation, and therefore the Championship have no automatic obligation to take an expelled team. That is why the most likely punishment will be points leading to relegation, rather than expulsion.

Expulsion, however, is on the table if Man City do not disassociate themselves with any banned executives.

It will be clear, you either terminate the contracts of the banned execs, or you will have your will be suspended from playing football in England until you do so. And that will automatically create the expulsion. This is further complicated if it is the owners, ADUG, who are found to have lied and failed to cooperated.

If ADUG are found culpable, we may see the Premier League attempt to remove them as owners of the club. that is the only way an expulsion of owners can work. And it will be similar to what we saw with Roman Abramovich.

City owners will have a period to sell the club, likely to be by the end of the season. If they do not do so, the club will be suspended. This nuclear option will only be if ADUG are found guilty. The likelihood will be that they will find some senior executives within Man City to pin the blame on (huge pay outs to them), they will be suspended, removed from their positions, and ADUG will then employ new execs.

HMRC punishment

It is unlikely there will be any punishment handed out by HMRC to Man City. As far as I can see, all income was declared. This is where this case differentiates to Juventus’, where it was a criminal case led by the legal authorities (In English terms, submitting false accounts to Companies House).

HMRC may look to go after those who received payments.

If the those payments were for football activities in England, those who received them would have had a duty to declare them. They will likely not have declared them. That will be on those individuals.

Club by club legal action

Everton v Burnley has set a precedent that allows clubs to sue another club for loss of earnings.

The the Burnley case, the Clarets showed that they would likely have stayed up had Everton not breached PSR. The result was a pay out, plus interest, on the money they missed out on by being relegated. This is where the floodgates could open.

Lets firstly look at the 3 seasons where we know there are PSR breaches: 2015/16, 2026/17 and 2017/18. Now lets be cautious and apply just a 6 point deduction to each of those seasons. That deduction will mean that anyone who would have finished above City had the deduction been applied in that season has a case.

Now in some cases, the compensation may be minimal – just the difference in Premier League merit money. But if the deduction would led to a team qualifying for Champions League football ahead of them, the compensation could be huge.

2015/16: Man City finished 4th, level on points with Manchester United, 3 points ahead of Southampton (WTF?), 4 ahead of West Ham and 6 ahead of Liverpool. Manchester United could have a claim for missing Champions League football, whilst Southampton and West Ham could claim for merit payments. If the deduction is more than 6 points, Liverpool would have a claim for missing Europa League football.

2016/17: Man City finished 3rd, 2 points ahead of Liverpool in 4th and 3 points ahead of Arsenal in 5th. Man U in 6th were 9 points behind. Arsenal would therefore have a claim that Man City’s cheating lead them to failing to qualify for the Champions League, whilst Liverpool would have a merit payment argument.

2027/18: Man City won the league by 19 points. Unless the point deduction applied for this season is huge, not much will happen.

My estimate is that for these 3 seasons along, Man City would be looking at over £100m in compensation. Maybe closer to £150m. And the impact could be far greater if the financial charges lead to PSR breaches beyond those 3 seasons.

So Man City’s punishment?

Well done for getting this far. I appreciate it is a long read.

Off the bat, I expect:

• 18-30 point deduction for PSR breaches
• Huge fines for financial irregularities
• Further point deduction if financial irregularities lead to new or more severe PSR breaches
• Banning of those officials involved in the cover-up
• Transfer ban, none suspended
• £100-150m compensation paid to clubs (legal cases pending)

My final thought on this is the Premier League are still investigating 2018 onwards, and Man City once again are not cooperating. This may lead to larger fines, transfer bans and suspensions, suspended on cooperation in these cases. If Man City fail to cooperate, then these will kick in.

The Premier League may also hit Man City with a expulsion order, suspended for 4 years based which will only trigger if they fail to cooperate during that period. This could be the biggest charge of all as that will force Man City to cooperate with the 2018-2025 investigations of be expelled.

And if they cooperate and similar offences are found, further breaches, compensation, etc will be applied for those 7 years, and further or longer bans handed out.

For now, we await the appeal. And that appeal is due to be heard for a period of around 12-weeks. Then we will hear the punishment, which in itself will be appealed. But with no mitigating circumstances, no remorse, and Man City continually trying to block the investigation, any appeal will likely fall on deaf ears.

Plenty more still to come on this one.

Keenos

Another transfer window, and the so called PSR 4 are at it again. Chelsea, Aston Villa, Newcastle and Nottingham forest. All doing these strange little deals with each other, summer after summer.

Whilst fans of some of the clubs look at England’s 6 biggest clubs and cry “cartel”, the PSR 4 have shown time and again over recent windows that they are in bed with each other, overpaying for average players to move money about and satisfy accountants.

Their fans “celebrate” selling and buying players at hugely inflated sums like it is a trophy. But the truth is they have all gone backwards since they begun this game.

At the centre of the PSR 4 is Chelsea. Now without a major trophy in 4 seasons, they have finished 12th, 6th, 4th and 10th since they began playing financial games.

Chelsea are now in a spiral where they need to keep doing these questionable deals to keep the business running. It could all quite quickly collapse around them and in 12-months they could be in serious financial trouble.

Whilst their fans “celebrate” these new players, Chelsea’s business these days basically involves them having to buy players they do not really want to sign and selling players they do not really want to sell. Each transfer window, they buy and sell more, giving those fans a new signing endorphin hit. But every summer their squad, their team, gets worse.

Aston Villa fans are amongst the biggest cry babies in football. Their owners have refused to invest in the infrastructure of the club, which would have led to increasing revenues. Instead, they opted to overspend on wages which left them close to spending more on players salaries than they generated in income. Whilst their fans cried that “our owners can not invest what they want”, they failed to recognise that their owners have no interest in investing. If they did, stadium enhancements (which sit outside financial rules) would have already happened.

If have lost count how many dodgy deals Villa have done. And selling Morgan Rogers and gaining Alejandro Garnacho and Nicolas Jackson sums them up.

They basically sold a player they did not went to sell, for a higher fee than they would have likely accepted. Fair enough. But to make the deal happen they have signed two players they do not really want. And the result will be they have also overspent, and their fans will be crying about how it is all unfair. It is their owners choice the route they went down when spending money.

Aston Villa may have seen some success, and risen to 4th in the league, but their financial dealings is now catching up on them. They have lost 4 key players this summer in Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne. Emi Martinez and Ollie Watkins could also be out of the door. Their slide down the table is inevitable and these silly little deals with Chelsea, etc will not save them

As for Newcastle fans, they are only slightly less annoying that Villa fans.

They cry about “having to sell Eliot Anderson due to PSR”, but ignore that around the same time they recruited Joe Willock, Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali. Maybe they should have developed their own rather than trying to just buy their way to the top.

The Newcastle project peaked in 2024/25 when they won the League Cup and finished 5th. Last season they slide to 12th and this year it looks no better. Whilst their fans celebrate “getting one over the Premier League” by being involved in PSR 4 deals, their squad continues to get weaker.

Finally Nottingham Forest. Just signed Liam Delap for huge money. I would not be surprised if Morgan Gibbs White now goes the other way. From 7th to 16th, I now have money on them to go down this season. Each time they did one of these questionable deals, they sold better players and recruited worse – just like all of the PSR 4.

Whilst fans of Chelsea, Villa, Newcastle and Forest celebrate these deals, it will eventually come to bite them on the arse. They are simply moving debt around, and not resolving their underlying financial issues. This summer, none of them have improved their squads despite huge spending. I think at least one of them will go down. And that is a victory for common sense spending over what these guys are doing.

Compare to the likes of Brighton and Brentford. Well run clubs who are both in Europe this season. You never hear their fans moan about financial unfair play or do these hugely inflated swap deals to increase revenue. They just got on with running good businesses. And they will be a success for it.

What I would say is let the PSR 4 have them transfer window endorphin hit. Ultimately, they are all becoming weaker through this alliance and things will only get worse. Their fans though will keep celebrating their transfer business because it is all about spending big in their heads, not caring who they actually sign.

Keenos