You can almost set you watch by it.

Every year, on around the 2nd or 3rd of July, fans flock to social media to cry that their club has not signed anyone yet. It honestly mystifies me, especially when many of those have lived through man, many transfer windows, and should know how things work.

I understand fans look at Tottenham with a jealous eye – once Sandro Tonali is confirmed, that will be over £200m spent on new players. But their desperate transfer spending should be expected – they can not afford another season finishing in a relegation battle.

There is a World Cup going on. And that always impacts when you buy players.

Yes, some will move during the World Cup, such as Elliott Anderson. But others will be saying to their agent “I do not want to hear from you. Speak to me after”. And if you are targetting those players, your transfer spending is on hold.

So lets look at Tottenham, whose fans are already claiming yet another transfer window win.

Their two big signings – Tonali and Mateus Fernandes – were not at the World Cup. That makes the deals much easier to do. I also think they have paid a premium for the pair. Met the asking price. Not negoatiated. Again, making them an easier deal to do.

I like both players, but we are in the market for players to act as cover for Martin Zubimendi and Declan Rice. The transfer fees and wages being spoken about are the levels of starters, not squad players.

Then you have Jan Paul van Hecke. A good signing for them. Paying £52m got the deal done quickly. The deal will make it £230m on van Hecke, Fernandes and Tonali. Huge money on players that would not even start for Aston Villa.

Tottenham basically had a free run at all of these players because everyone else had walked away. No one wanted to pay those asking prices. Manchester United, Arsenal and Liverpool decided there was better value eslewhere.

Tottenham have also completed free deals for 32-year-old Andy Robertson, 37-year-old Martin Dubravka and 29-year-old Marcos Senesi. Easy deals to make when the players are out of contract.

The reality is had Arsenal wanted to sign these players, at the fees and wages they are costing, we would have. But we decided not to.

When you are looking at the market and seeing £116m for Elliott Anderson, £100m for Tonali, £85m for Fernandes, you just have to laugh. And this shows whay Arsenal need to be patient.

I feel this summer, you move early tou over pay. That is what we risk doing with someone like Morgan Rogers.

Rogers is a good player, but a £130m player he is not. Considering Anthony Gordon went for £80m to Barcelona, Arsenal would expect to do a deal for in and around this figure. If we can not, we move on to another winger who represents better value. And Aston Villa are stuck with an unhappy player who has been valued out of a move to a top club.

One of those other midfielders is Christos Tzolis. The Greek winger is not at the World Cup, but the man he is replacing is.

I think Leandro Trossard will depart this summer. He potentially has a bit of a Ray Parlour situation coming up. A costle divorce at 31. Our diminutive winger might see this summer as an opportunity to go to Turkey or Saudi, get himself a huge signing on fee and silly wages, thus funding his divorce.

Tzolis is clearly lined up to replace Trossard, but we are being respectful of our current player and do not want to sign someone until Trossard confirms he wants to leave. And he will not do that until Belgium are out of the World Cup. Once Trossard gives us the nod, Tzolis will come in.

We can expect to get £20m for Trossard, and Tzolis will cost us around £30m. So a £10m net swing on a player with a similar profile and is 7-years younger. It is a good deal and we just need to remain patient whilst the dominos fall.

Like many, I was disapointed about the news of Jeremy Monga last night – Arsenal have walked away from the deal and Man City are swooping in.

Monga is clearly a talent. The reports are we were looking to pay around £6.5m, similar to what a recent tribunal ordered Liverpool to pay for Rio Ngumoha. I would say that is reasonable. But Leicester City demanded a fee north of £10m.

That led Arsenal, looking at the Ngumoha tribunal fee, and agree to “take him on a free and let the courts decide”. The result was the door was left open and City are seemingly swooping in.

Over the years, Man City have spent a lot of money recruiting the best young players from across Europe. But there is a huge swath of “where are they now” blogs with those that they signed and just seemed to disappear into the City Group’s loan system.

Many of them do get their careers back on track – think Morgan Rogers, Jeremie Frimpong, Romeo Lavia, Jadon Sancho and Felix Nmecha. But it is often a rocky path,

City are chucking millions at these young kids and families, setting them up for life. Every year more players seem to move between academies aged 16-18. Getting a £30k a week contract where their existing club only wanted to pay £10k. And then they go back to playing the same PL2 level and struggle to ever break thourhg (Chido Obi Martin anyone?).

We need to stop getting annoyed when youth players leave. Remember, our coachs know more about these kids than anyone and will know their value based on the chances of making it. Likewise, lets stop getting upset when we lose out on a Mongao or Sverre Nypan (what happened to him?).

Ultimately, spending £10m+ on a 16-year-old is a huge investment. And there is more chance he will be playing for a small club like West Ham in 5-years than being a regular at Arsenal.

And by being patient and not overpaying for Monga, we have pivoted to Georgian U21 starlet Andria Bartishvili. At just £4.5m (reportedly),  Bartishvili, like Monga, is a talented young left winger. May we have just turned down the next Jeremy Doku to sign the next Khvicha 20Kvaratskhelia?

Our deals will get done this year. Be patient. Enjoy the World Cup. Go on holiday. Stop living on social media and feeling the need to get upset about everything.

We are Champions.

Keenos

PSG did not beat us because they had the better players, the better tactics, or were coached better. They beat us because during the course of the season, their key players played less minutes.

Whilst Arsenal had a real slog of a season in the Premier League, a competition were you simply cannot rest too many players, PSG strolled to the Ligue 1 title whilst being able to rest key players consistently keeping them fresh for the Champions League.

Talisman Khvicha Kvaratskhelia played more than 740 league minutes less than Bukayo Saka, whilst centre back Marquinhos played 1702 and 1566 minutes less than Gabriel and Saliba respectively. That is the equivalent of about 17/18 games less.

Seven of Arsenal’s starting XI in the semi final had played more than 2,000 Premier League- with Declan Rice and David Raya playing in over 3,000. Just 2 of PSG’s semi-final players had clocked up 2,000+ minutes in Ligue 1.

Throughout Mikel Arteta’s managerial career, he has always been able to recognise “what next” when building the team from finishing 8th, through to aiming for top 4, then title challengers, and then winners. He has continued to take Arsenal on a evolutionary journey rectifying any weaknesses from the previous season. And our biggest weakness last season was how many minutes key players had to play in comparison to PSG.

Last summer we did brilliant raising the floor of the squad. The likes of Piero Hincapie, Cristhian Mosquera, Noni Madueke and Eberechi Eze gave Arteta more options. But it was still not enough.

There are still pockets of the squad were players saw a lot of minutes. And crucially the biggest are was in the middle of the park, the engine room.

By the time the final whistle went in Budapest, Rice had clocked up 4,456 minutes for Arsenal, with Martin Zubimendi playing 4,299. Zubimendi was criticised towards the end of the season, which was unfair considering the exhaustion he must have been feeling in his toughest ever season.

Arteta can be criticised for not bringing in Myles Lewis Skelly enough, or playing Premier League stalwart Christian Norgard in a couple of games. But I am reluctant to criticise a man whose team selection lead us to our first league title in 22-years. He basically sacrificed the Champions League to ensure our tired, weary, injured troops dragged us to the league title.

This summers transfer window, I feel, will not be about buying starters. It will be about buying players who can better share the load – especially in those opening months of a season.

The likes of Bruno Guimaraes could come in for Declan Rice with the aim of sharing the 4,456 minutes. His acquisition could see Rice end up playing under 2,500 minutes next season, with Guimaraes playing around 2,000. That is similar minutes to what PSG’s midfielders player.

In defence we are being linked with the equally experience Ezri Konsa. He would be a good option to replace Ben White and has bundles of experience playing both right back and centre back in the Premier League. Konsa would certainly allow Arteta to rest Saliba and Jurrien Timber more.

What Arteta then needs to do is trust Madueke and Eze a bit more, and trust Myles Lewis Skelly more. Their development could easily see them playing 500-1000 more minutes this season, taking the pressure off Saka, Martin Odegaard and Zubimendi.

Another factor is just how many Arsenal players seem to be currently playing with an injury.

We got heavily criticised in the run-in to the title for players pulling out of international duty due to injuries – but it is clear that many players are struggling.

Saka has been managing a long-term achilles injury. Adfter the World Cup he could probably do with going on a beach for 6 weeks. A proper rest before slowly being eased back into The Arsenal team 5 or 6 games into the season.

Rice is also clearly not 100%. Nor is Saliba. Both could do with not playing in the first 6-weeks of the season, giving their bodies time to recover. They could then come back in later in the season, have their game time managed a bit better, and be that bit fresher come May.

It will also be interesting to see if Arteta decides to rest and rotate a bit more in Europe.

In 2024/25 and 2025/26, PSG finished outside the top 8 and thus had to play an additional round. They did “just enough” to finish in the top half of the 9-16 grouping, ensuring they got an easier tie in the Knockout phase play-offs. They faced Monaco and Brest in that round respectively.

Despite playing an additional game, key players had still clocked up less Champions League minutes than Arsenal come the quarter final. Accept a couple of “lesser” results in the aim of keeping players fresher.

It is quite clear that this transfer window needs to be about reducing the minutes for key players, especially in those opening 6-8 weeks of the season.

Arsenal were so close to winning the Champions League last season. For 2026/27 we need to ensure the players that turn up in Madrid are fresher, without sacrificing the league for a push at European glory.

Keenos

After winning the league, Mikel Arteta will be reluctant to change too much – especially after the example set by Liverpool last season in one of the worst title defences this century. However, in football if you stand still you go backwards.

What I think Arteta will do this season is more tactical tweaks rather than wholesale changes.

Arteta’s set up

Since coming in, Mikel Arteta’s tactics have been fairly static:

Starting ion midfield, Arteta has tended to play a single out and out defensive midfielder – firstly Thomas Partey and then Martin Zubimendi.

To ensure that man does not get over run in midfield, the fullbacks defend narrower, in the position that has become known as “inverted full backs”. First Oleksander Zinchenko, then Jurrien Timber, he has played with at least one of his full backs dropping inside to make the extra man in midfield.

Ahead of his sole defensive midfielder, Arteta has tended to play 2 central midfielders – Granit Xhaka and Martin Odegaard, with Xhaka then replaced by Declan Rice.

This hardworking midfield makes us hard to break down, allows us to press high, but also sacrifices some creativity to create defensive overloads across the pitch. It has also led to the misprofiling of Martin Odegaard.

The Norwiegian captain has never really played in the traditional 10 role for Arsenal – that being high up the pitch, behind a striker, playing centrally.

For much of his Arsenal career, he has played in that right hand side 6 pocket, coming deep to pick up the ball off the defensive midfielder, and progressing through the right hand side. You very seldom see Odegaard out on the left, our even central, and he rarely just loiters high up the field waiting for the ball to come to him in attacking positions.

I would argue that we have utilised Odegaard in his best position – he is more of a 8 than a 10.

On the right hand side, we then have Bukayo Saka who can go on the inside or out, creating an overload with Odegaard. That used to be a treble overload with Ben White acting as a more traditional overlapping full back.

Gabriel Martinelli tended to hug the touchline on the left, giving Declan Rice more space to play inside. Although recently we have seen Leandro Trossard play more in the inside pocket, with both Piero Hincape and Riccardo Calafiori playing as more traditional overlapping full backs – this was to be expected as the inverted full back began to be Timber of the right rather than one of the left backs.

So how do we move on from this set up, giving us more creativity, making use a greater threat, without an huge overhaul?

A return to 4231

I expect next season, Arsenal to return to the more traditional 4231 formation which worked so well for Jose Mourinho’s early days at Chelsea.

One reason I think we will see this change is due to two positions we look to recruit for – Morgan Rogers and another defensive midfielder.

Following the progress of Myles Lewis Skelly, I did not think we needed cover and competition for Martin Zubimendi anymore – the Hale Ender has shown on the highest level that he can compete with the best midfielders in the world.

Rice and Mikel Merino, Zubimendi and MLS, Odegaard and Eberechi Eze. I did not feel we need more than that. Two players for each position and plenty of options to either set up more attacking or more defensively. But we are still being linked to new midfielders.

Either journalists have not been updated by whoever provides their transfer gossip since the MLS breakthrough, or Arsenal are simply still in the market for someone. And I think it is still the latter.

The only conclusion, therefore is Arsenal are going back to playing two defensive midfielders. Think Petit/Gilberto and Vieira or Fabregas and Flamini. At Chelsea for so long it was Claude Makelele alongside Michael Essien. One player to sit, the other to drive forward.

Zubimendi and Rice will be out starters, and MLS is capable of playing both either the sitter role or in Rice’s driving role – however Merino is inefficient in the deeper role; to slow, doesnt cover the ground, not great driving with the ball.

The new midfielder, therefore, will either be a defensive minded passer like Zubimendi, or someone who can drive forward with the ball like Rice. I think it will be the later and we will sign someone who can put in the defensive shift of Rice, cover the ground, and be the line breaker in the middle. That would leave MLS to cover for Zubimendi.

But what for the defence?

Moving backwards, a two man midfield would mean we no longer need the full backs to drop inside to create the extra man. They return to being overlapping full backs, getting chalk on their boots and bombing forward.

This certainly suits Calafiori and Hincape as well as White, but not really Timber.

I still expect Timber to be first choice next season, but I think we can all expect us to sign a White replacement and have that option of a traditional full back to continue helping create an overload with Saka – and that will be especially important when you consider the future for Martin Odegaard.

Odegaard’s future

It will be harsh to “get rid of the captain” who has just helped his team to the league title for the first time in 22-years. Odegaard has been a hugely influential figure on and off the pitch. But this Arsenal team is about to outgrow him.

If we play with that double pivot of Zubimendi and Rice, we no longer need Odegaard to drop deep. Instead he will be expected to play that bit closer to the forward, and covering horizontally from left to right rather than vertically up and down.

That will mean less of a focus on creating the overloads with Saka (hence the importance of a right back that can get forward) and more sharing his support on both flanks.

Whilst still being involved in the defensive shape of the team – there is no point Viktor Gyokeres pressing if the midfielder behind him does not follow, the switch from two 8s to one 10 will mean that creating chances becomes that midfielders main job. And I am not sure that plays to Odegaard’s strangths.

It is interesting that this summer we are being linked with Julian Alvarez and Eli Kroupi. These are certainly forwards that prefer to play behind a striker rather than your out and out centre forward. You could certainly see the pair buzzing around Gyokeres, picking up on those knock downs and providing a goal threat from deeper.

And the wingers

If we do transition from 2 8s to an out and out 10, you then create a lot more space in the final 3rd. No longer will Saka and Martinelli have a midfielder within 10 yards almost every time they receive the ball.

Instead, they will look up and see inviting space inside them to drive into. And in turn, when they drag their full backs centrally it leaves the space for the overlapping fullbacks on the outside.

Saka is more than good enough playing in this sort of role – able to go inside and out he will thrive. But Martinelli is a speedster who does not look to go inside early and could not be involved in too much of the build up play. One man who would thrive is Morgan Rogers.

So you end up almost in the Arsene Wenger Invincible days, with two full backs looking to get forward (Cole and Lauren), a midfield 2 with one who sits and one who drives (Gilberto and Vieira), a second striker behind the centre forward (Dennis Bergkamp) and two wingers that look to get inside and support the second striker rather than hang on the fringes of the game (Freddie Ljungberg and Robert Pires).

Finally…

These changes are only subtle. Asking full backs to play wider and get forward a bit more, asking Rice to sit a bit deeper. All this will come naturally.

You then have the big evolution of the forward line with the recruitment of a left winger who can come inside, a someone who offers more than Odegaard behind a striker.

The changes will also suit the reserve players – Kai Havertz is an option both as the highest centre forward and someone to play just behind, Eze would be comfortable playing off that left hand side or as a back up 10, and Noni Madueke also offers a lot covering Saka.

It will be quiet evolution this summer rather than Liverpool-esque revolution. And this is the best way to make a championship winning team better!

Keenos