Before you comment, I fully understand that 1 win in the last 7 games is not good enough. But I also do not think Arsenal are the broken machine that many claim, nor do I believe Mikel Arteta has been “found out”.

Top managers and coaches (and Arteta is a top one), look beyond the score line when analysing games. They focus on the data behind the performance, not just the result.

They will not be too concerned if a dominating performance leads to defeat with the opponents scoring from their only 2 shots on target. They will understand that these things happen in football.

Likewise, a top coach will not get over excited if they nick the win against their opponents in a game where they were dominated and scored with their only shot. They will realise that, despite the result, there is plenty of work to be done and the victory papers over the issues.

They will make changes in tactics and personnel based on the performances rather than the results – and for most teams it will take more than just a handful of poor performances to make those changes; especially when those poor performances are put into context against maybe a years worth of brilliant performances.

A poor coach, meanwhile, will only care about the results.

They will celebrate nicking a win when they performed poorly like they have won the league. Two or three nicked wins in a row and they will think that their management, tactics and decisions are spot on. But eventually they will begin to get the poor results their performances deserved and they will wonder where it has all gone.

A poor coach will also overreact to a good performance that leads to a poor result. “Tinkering” with tactics and personnel. They will ignore the good work that has possibly happened in previous months, and during the game they lost themselves, and make wholesale changes off the back of that result. This will usually lead to a worsening of performances and a futher dip in form.

I am very calm about where Arsenal currently are. Yes, I am dissapointed that we have dropped from 1st to 4th in a handful of games and out the FA Cup. But I also do not think we are in as bad a place as many make out. The reality is our performances are not as poor as many are making out.

Aston Villa (a) – 1-0 defeat

A very tight game between two of the best teams in the Premier League. Aston Villa were 14 games unbeaten at home, their last defeat against Arsenal.

An even game where clear cut chances were limited, both Aston Villa and Arsenal scored with their best chances of the game. The only difference was Arsenal’s was incorrectly disallowed.

Last seasons game was not too different. A tight game where Arsenal needed a freak own goal from Emiliano Martinez in the 93rd minute to win. Gabriel Martinelli then ran clear to make it 4-2.

This is certainly one of those games that could have gone either way. Last year it went to us, this year to Villa. Probably a sign of their improvement.

PSV Eindhoven (a) – 1-1

A much changed Arsenal team went to Eindhoven and came away with a draw against a team that were unbeaten at home.

A starting XI containing Cedric, Kiwor, Jorginho, Elneny, Nketiah and Nelson. Was a very good performance despite our weakened team.

Brighton (h) – 2-0 win

We got the comfortable result our good performance deserved against a decent, well organised Brighton team.

Liverpool (a) – 1-1

Tight away game. Both teams played well. Both teams could have won it. 1-1 draw a fair result.

West Ham United (h) – 2-0 defeat

A defeat that hurt, and one which coming out of the ground felt like a poor performance. but upon reflection and when re-watching the game, we actually played really well.

It was a real dominating performance as Arsenal had 74% of the possession and 30 shots. Meanwhile West Ham had just 2 shots on target from open play, scoring with them both.

Our performance should have seen us score 3 or 4 goals, whilst West Ham’s opener should have been ruled out as the ball went out of play.

This game was the perfect example of what I describe as “good manager / poor manager”.

Mikel Arteta knew his team played well but did not get the result he wanted. David Moyes celebrated the result, but failed to look beyond that at his teams poor performance.

Fulham (a) – 2-1 defeat

Probably our worst performance of the season.

It was actually a tight game and it could have finished 2-1 in either direction as both sides had a similar level of clear cut chances. Title winning teams win 2-1 off that identical performance. also-rans lose 2-1.

Liverpool (h) – 2-0 defeat

A game that sums Arsenal up during this tough period.

Conceding goals despite limiting opponents to very few chances. Not scoring goals despite creating plenty of chances.

The xG on this one (if you like that stat) was 1.85 – 0.85. It is a fair reflection on the chances created by both teams – and it took an OG for Liverpool to take the lead.

Arsenal played really well in the game and can feel unlucky to be out of the cup.

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I would be more worried right now were we on the run we are currently on and:

a) we were conceding a lot of chances and
b) we were not making any chances

The fact is, in every game across the last 7 we have limited our opponents to very few chances, and made plenty ourselves.

Modern managers to put a lot of weight on expected goals (xG) to help evaluate performances.

Now I understand that this statistic is very controversial amongst fans, with many not liking it and feeling like it justifies defeats. But as above, good coaches ignore results and look at permornaces. And xG is a good statstics to help evaluate a performance (alongside other stats).

In our last 7 games, we have had an xG of 13.45 (as in we should have scored 13 or 14 goals). Our xG against was 7.34 (should have conceded between 7 and 8 goals).

Our real results has seen us concede 9 and score 5. This shows that the performances are 85% there. We just need to finish the chances we are creating. And likewise, the xG conceded will soon result in us keeping clean sheets rather than conceding with just 1 or 2 chances againsts

On another day (and all that), we really could have won 7 in a row. Our performances have not been as bad as the results make out.

We are unlikely to win the league title this year, and we are out of the FA Cup and League Cup. I get everyone’s disappointment and frustration. But the truth is we are just not getting the results our performances deserve right now.

Making huge changes (from tactics and playing personnel to sacking the manager), will unlikely change our performances, because they are at a high level.

A new striker (to finish those chances), the bounce of the ball, and some decisions going our way and we will quickly see the tide change. And with Momentum being such a big thing, we only need a couple of wins to go our way and suddenly all these close games that we are losing, we will be winning. And probably comfortably.

Learn not to overreact to everything good and bad. Teach yourself to be more balanced. And you will find yourself being much better at evaluating a situation (both in football and real life!).

The winter break has probably come at a good time for The arsenal. Give Arteta to rebuild the troops confidence and moral without a game every 3 days.

UTA!

Keenos

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