Category Archives: Arsenal

As the Raphinha door shuts, an Nkunku one opens

So we have lost out on Raphinha. I am not concerned one bit.

Edu and his team will have long lists of transfer targets on a white board somewhere at London Colney.

They will be in a locked room that only he, Mikel Arteta and a selected few other senior members of staff can access.

Every club has one. The transfer room. It is where the magic of happens.

Whilst Raphinha was probably top of the list, he will certainly not be the only name on the list.

In-fact, we do not know that he was top of the list. That might have been Serge Gnabry. Or Raheem Sterling. Or another winger that we established early on would be unobtainable.

So we move on from Raphinha. Just like we moved on from Dusan Vlahovic in January.

Now back in January we made the decision not to buy another striker once Vlahovic went to Juventus.

There would have been other options – Alexander Isak and Dominic Calvert-Lewin were being touted around at the time. But the club decided to bide its time.

It is clear now that the option after Vlahovic was Gabriel Jesus; but he was not available until this summer.

Had we signed Isak or Calvert-Lewin in January, their move might have impact Jesus joining.

If the Jesus deal was not “nailed on” for this summer, we might have gone for another name in January.

On a side note, I do wonder whether we were actually considering signing Vlahovic and Jesus at one point?

Vlahovic would have been first choice striker, Jesus his cover whilst also being a regular option out wide. That scenario would have meant we would not have been in for Raphinha (or any other winger) as Jesus would have been that option. It also would have meant Eddie would not have signed a new contract.

Anyway, I digress.

So with Raphinha now not an option (although at the time of writing the deal with Chelsea has not been confirmed so it might still collapse), Edu will go to the next name on the list.

The situation now reminds me of the summer we signed Nicolas Pepe.

Pepe was clearly our primary target that summer.

Lille wanted a lot of money for him. Probably too much money.

We begun to be linked with other players including PSG’s Christopher Nkunku.

Nkunku was a couple of years younger than Pepe and no-where near as established. Although he clearly had the raw materials to become a top player.

In the end we opted to go for the “ready” player in Pepe and paid the £72million for him.

Meanwhile Nkunku went to RB Leipzig for just £10million.

Hindsight is a wonderful thing in football.

Pepe has struggled in his 3 years at Arsenal. The talent is clearly their but something is lacking mentality.

Meanwhile Nkunku has grown into a terrific football over in Germany – scoring 30 goals in 54 games last season.

Now 24 (the same age Pepe was when he signed), he is being linked away in a big money move. One club linked is Arsenal.

Pepe was signed during the Raúl Sanllehí era – a period of time where we bought a lot of “ready made” senior pros.

The likes of Pepe, David Luiz, Pablo Mari and Cedric Soares – with Willian joining the day before he left the club.

Clearly Sanllehi was looking at players for the hear and now and not too concerned with what the future may bring.

Pepe v Nkunku was “ready now but expensive” against “could be a star of the future and cheap”.

Under the current regime with Edu at the BBQ , we probably would have gone for Nkunku ahead of Pepe.

Edu has shown a couple of times that when a deal gets a bit too expensive, a bit too hot, he is willing to walk away from it. I think he would have walked away from Pepe.

Likewise his recruitment has focused on younger talent.

Now whilst Pepe at 24 would still have been in the target range of Edu, £72million would not have been. We probably would have ended up with Nkunku.

So back to Raphinha.

The price on Raphinha got very big – £65million is just not worth it.

So we now look at who is next on the list? And those players will probably be exciting younger talents.

It could reopen the door for someone like Cody Gakpo – the 23-year-old Feyenoord winger has been on our radar for a while and recently been touted as a replacement for Raphinha at Leeds. Or you have Moussa Diaby currently playing out in Germany. Just 22.

We might also look the other way.

Raphinha at £40million would have been a good deal. But at £65million are there better players on the market?

I am thinking Joao Felix.

Or might the world turn a full circle and we end up signing a certain Christopher Alan Nkunku – spending £50m+ on the man who was our full back option back in 2019?

In football transfers, as one door shuts another opens.

In 1999 we lost the best young player in the world to Real Madrid – Nicolas Anelka. To replace him we signed a gangly winger from Juventus. And the rest, as they say, is history.

Keenos

Transfers are a bit like buying a house

And that is why you shouldn’t invest in a player until the deal is actually done.

Almost out of nowhere Chelsea had a bid accepted for Raphinha.

Journalists across the land had been reporting that Arsenal were in talks, in pole position to land the Leeds United midfielder. But they tempered those reports but stating we had not met Leed’s evaluation.

Every report I read made it clear. Leeds United wanted £65million.

Raphinha was expected to join Barcelona this summer. It was apparently the players primary choice. But the deal broke down because the Spanish giants could not meet the asking price.

Then the links to Arsenal begun.

When I first read those links, it felt a little odd. That we were being used in an attempt to get Barcelona to pay the £65million. It is a common tactic used by agents and selling clubs to try and get a move elsewhere.

But speculation began to grow and clearly we were interested.

Last week it was reported that we had a £30million bid turned down – way off Leeds’ valuation. It was again reiterated in the media that they wanted £65million.

Arsenal were clearly unwilling to pay the £65million – a stance which I think is correct. So talks were scheduled this week.

We clearly had our “upper limit” for the player and it would be up to negotiating team to establish what Leeds’ “lowest limit” would be for the player and trying and come to an agreement.

But before that could take place, Chelsea swept in and paid the asking price.

Now for anyone that has bought a house, they will know this happens a lot.

You are trying to buy a house buy don’t value it at what the seller wants (or do not have the finances to get reach that far). You are in negotiations with the seller to bring that price down. Then another buyer swoops in and pays the asking.

You are frustrated you lost the house but you could never afford it at what it sold for (or don’t value it at that).

Football transfer are no different.

Edu and the team will know what the budget is this year for transfers.

If they valued Raphinha at £50million maximum, then they would not be meeting the asking price of £65m.

That extra £15m is money that could be earmarked towards another central midfield or left back. A bit like when moving you have money earmarked to redecorate or for furniture.

Spending that extra £15m would have meant we would have had to save it elsewhere. Not refurbishing the bathroom or kitchen when we move in for example.

Chelsea needed that big marquee signing of their new era – they had yet to bring anyone in.

They had already tried and failed with Ousmane Dembele. The deal for Raheem Sterling was dragging on.

I wonder if they actually wanted Raphinha long term or just saw him as a deal they could get done quickly. Pay the asking price, splash the cash, and appease the fans.

He certainly is not a £65m player and I would not have wanted Arsenal to spend that on him if it meant sacrificing a new left back or central midfielder.

We have to remember we have already spent £85m this summer on Gabriel Jesus, Fabio Vieira and Marquinhos.

Lisandro Martinez is still being heavily linked at around £35-£40m. That will take our spending to £120m+. Is it then unreasonable to expect us to just splash another £65m on Raphinha? We do not have a bottomless pit of money.

So we move in.

Like buying a house, you are never just looking at one.

Your favourite house is snapped up by someone else, you focus on getting on your second favourite.

It might not be quite as good as the first one. It might be a little bit further from the station. Or need a little bit more work. But you buy it and turn it into a home. And very quickly you forget about the house you missed out on.

And football transfers are just like that.

We move onto our next target. And who knows? That target could turn out to be a better choice!

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Keenos

Gabriel Jesus was the best striker available this summer

Morning all.

So we announced another player yesterday – but not the main man.

Matt Turner has joined from MLS side New England Revolution. I know nothing about him but the club seem to think he will do a good job replacing Bernd Leno as number two.

I imagine his arrival will see a change of policies on the goal keeper.

In recent seasons we have played one guy in the league and the other in the cups. I would now expect Aaron Ramsdale to play in everything bar the League Cup.

Whilst we sit and wait for Gabriel Jesus, his impending arrival is  creating noise from rival fans as well as those so-called Arsenal fans that do not really support the club.

A lot of the noise from the day has come from Tottenham fans.

They are stating that Gabriel Jesus is a “poor” signing as he would not walk into their team.

Harry Kane is one of the best strikers in the world. So they are right in the fact that Jesus would not walk into their team. But that does not mean that he is a poor signing for Arsenal.

Jesus is a huge improvement on Alex Lacazette and Eddie Nketiah.

Football is a team (and squad) game. Jesus improves our starting XI and our squad.

We finished just 2 points behind Spurs last season. We have improved our starting XI with his recruitment.

If you also include Fabio Vieira, we have improved two areas of our team.

So whilst Jesus would not have improved Spurs, he has improved us.

Their fans should focus on the lack of improvements in their squad, rather than try and mock us for our very positive transfer business so far.

I stand by my prediction that Spurs will finish 8th next season.

There are some Arsenal fans predicting he will score no more than 15 league goals for us next season.

I think if he scores 15 league goals he will be considered a good signing.

Do not believe me? Let’s look at the stats:

Last season, only 4 players scored more than 15 goals in the Premier League. The year before it was 5.

15 goals would have made Gabriel Jesus the 7th (or highest) Premier League goal scorer 6 out of the last 10 seasons (and top 10 in 9 of the last 10).

Last season was only the 4th time in Premier League history that we have not had someone in the top 10 Premier League goal scorers.

I think some people over estimate how many goals are scored by a single man in the Premier League.

I see some saying “we need a 30 league goal a season striker” as if they grow on trees.

Thierry Henry only scored 30+ league goals once in his Arsenal career – and only 6 players have breached that landmark since the league went down to 20 teams.

Alexander Lacazette was our top league goal scorer last season with just 7.

A man that (potentially) scores another 8 goals would have been more than enough to take us into the top 4.

There is a real lack of top strikers in world football right now – this is not the early 00’s when we had Henry, Ruud van Nistelrooy, Samuel Eto’o, Andriy Shevchenko, Raul, Ronaldo, Filippo Inzaghi, Alessandro Del Piero, Ronaldinho and Gabriel Batistuta battling it out to be the best on the planet.

These days there is pretty much Robert Lewandowski, Karim Benzema, Cristiano Ronaldo and Harry Kane. 4 of which are the wrong side of 34.

Bar Erling Haaland, there really isn’t any other top young striker in world football right now.

Is Jesus the perfect answer? No. But that player really does not exist right now.

He is an improvement on what we had last season and will score enough for us to be top 4.

Onto the next one…

Keenos