The good, the bad and the ugly of Arsenal’s last 24 hours

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David Raya – the good

Let’s start the blog with a positive – David Raya is now an Arsenal player.

Now I get why Arsenal did the deal; having lost Matt Turner, we needed another keeper. Runar Alex Runarsson and Karl Hein are not a number 2.

The opportunity arose to sign a proven Premier League number 1, who is also number 1 for his country. Having two top keepers like Raya and Aaron Ramsdale is better than having Ramsdale backed up by Runarsson.

I think Raya is the one who pushed for the loan deal. And it is a good deal for all parties.

Raya basically has a year to force his way into Mikel Arteta’s first team. If he fails to do so, the loan deal keeps his options open next summer.

He can either sign permanently for Arsenal and continue to fight for his place. He can return to Brentford as their number 1. Or he can push for a move to another club where he would be number one.

For Brentford, Raya did the right thing signing an extension. That leaves the door open for his return and re-integration, and will mean they still get a fee for Raya if Arsenal decide not to sign him.

Finally, for Arsenal it pushes the can of signing a number two down the road.

In 12 months, either Raya and Ramsdale are both happy at the club and we keep both, or one is unhappy and they depart. This 12 months now gives us the time to scout and recruit a new number two. Or to see if Hein can push on.

Jurrien Timber – the bad

It has been confirmed that Jurrien Timber has suffered significant knee ligament damage and is expected to have an extended spell on the sidelines. It has not yet been announced by the club whether this is an ACL, MCL or some other damage.

I feel for the lad.

He is clearly a brilliant player and was one of our top performers in pre-season. At just 22 he was set for a big career and I am sure he would have established himself as one of the best full backs in the league.

Ligament injuries are not the career ender of decades ago. Treatment, rehab and recovery advances have now seen many a player return to the top level. Although many also do still have issues that plague their career.

Moises Caicedo suffered a ruptured ACL when he was 16. Robert Pires, Xavi, Alan Shearer, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Zlatan Ibrahimovic who suffered the injury and went on to become considered amongst the best players of their time after returning.

Virgl van Dijk more recently suffered a torn ACL. He was out for close to a year but returned the beast of a defender he was before (oddly, Liverpool fans are now saying “he was never the same player” despite spending the last 2 years also saying he was the best defender in the world).

What is important is we take out time with Timber. We do not rush him back. If that means he does not play in 2023/24 then so be it.

The fans – the ugly

Following the Timber news, some of our fans looked for someone to blame. They pointed their fingers at American pitches and our medical staff.

Whenever a player gets injured, you always get this Twitter medical experts who have probably not even got a GCSE to their name sharing fake news. Plastic American pitches is this summer myth.

There has been a trend of ACL injuries in recent weeks with Christopher Nkunku, Thibaut Courtois, Tyrone Mings, Emi Buendia and Eder Militao all suffering long term injuries.

All 5 played for clubs who spent some time playing in America, so the conclusion is that temporary plastic American pitches are to blame.

There is zero evidence of this. And in fact the research shows “ACL injuries happened at roughly the same rate on artificial surfaces and grass”.

Some have pointed to the NFL which has a huge ACL issue to highlight the problem with American pitches. But American footballers are suffering due to players being bigger, stronger, quicker and hitting much, much harder.

Fans have also blamed the Arsenal physio’s for putting Timber out for the second half.

The Arsenal physios are some of the best in the game. Their criticis have zero experience in the area.

There would have been a series of tests that the physios would have undertaken to establish if a player could continue. If none of these tests highlighted damage, and Timber said he was OK to continue, then there is no reason for them not to put him out for the second half.

Serious damage like what Timber suffered can usually only be established through scans. Of course, Arsenal will not have an MRI machine in the changing room…

The physios did their job, Timber would have said he was OK to carry on and, like with many injuries, the player then breaks down as soon as he tries to play again.

How about we stop with the blame game and just accept that injuries are part of the game. What is now important is that we get around Timber and support his recovery!

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Keenos

Just how are Chelsea spending big AGAIN

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How are Chelsea still spending? loads are asking. And it is a valid question considering that they are now close to £1b under their new owners.

Back in May, I explained how Chelsea had spent so much in such a short time, and not much has changed since then.

Amortisation is not something new that Chelsea discovered, nor is it an accounting fiddle or loophole. It is a method that has been used by every club for decades. It is also used by businesses when they are buying expensive assets.

In football terms, it involves spreading the cost of a transfer over the length of the contract – although from 2023/24 the maximum a club may amortise a fee for is 5-years after FIFA changed the rules in response to Chelsea handing out 8 and a half year contracts.

So that means if a club buys a player for £50m, they only need to declare £10m in that years accounts. And then a further £10m for each of the next 4-years.

It is important to note that amortisation is different to paying the selling club in installments. You can pay 100% of the fee upfront but still amortise the fee over the length of the contract.

In 2021/22, the year before Todd Boehly and his team took over, Chelsea’s player amortisation was around £160m.

My back of a fag guestimation is that it has only risen to around £180m (prior to Moises Caicedo joining). Why has it risen so little? Two reasons.

Contract lengths

In the last 18 months, Chelsea were signing players to long term contracts not really seen before in football. 7, 8 or 9 year deals (that are common place in American sports). They were then able to amortise those fees over the length of the contract.

As above, FIFA (or it might have been UEFA) have since changed the rules and clubs can no only amortise for a maximum of 5-years, no matter the contract length. This only comes in for deals done from the 2023/24 transfer window onwards.

Had Chelsea not got in before the rule change, their player amortisation would be around £30m more a season than it is now, which in turn would show a £50m increase on 2021/22.

That £30m a year is worth around an additional £150m in transfer fees over 5-years.

Player sales

When a club sells a player, any remaining amortisation value is due within the same financial year.

Each player has a “book value” which is what the club has yet to amortise into the club accounts.

As an example, if you buy a player for £50m and sell them for 2-years later for £30m, this would show a break even in the accounts. Whilst if you sold them for £40m, it would actually show as a profit.

Players also leaving on a free transfer after their contract expires also represents a “break even”. And if that player was costing you £7m a year, it is £7m a year you can spend elsewhere without seeing an increase in your total player amortisation.

Also, players that come through the academy or on a free transfer have zero amortisation value. Sales of these players is 100% book profit.

So far in this window, Chelsea have sold around £250m worth of players. Their departures represent around a £50m saving in amortisation.

In basic terms, that means that they can spend £250m on players, with 5-year deals, and their yearly amortisation would not increase.

On top of that, the departures have generated around a £130m profit once remaining amortisation values of those departing has been offset.

So a mixture of longer contracts and some some good sales has “financed “free’d up” around £80m a year in player amortisation costs. Spread over 5-year deals, that is close to £400m in additional signings.

Now whilst a lot of people will be saying “why does every club not doing this?”, there is a simple answer. It is a huge risk.

Player amortisation is like an ocean current. It flows in and out.

At the end of every season, a club would normally have some level of amortisation drop off the accounts (either due to sales or that players fee being fully amortised). That then free’s up space in the budget to add new players without see expenditure increase from the previous year.

Chelsea are securing players on long term contracts. That means that these players will not be fully paid up within the accounts for up to 9 years.

At the end of the 2023/24, they do not have a single player whose original transfer fee will be fully amortised. That means any new players will have to come from new revenue (either an increase in commercial / TV revenue or player sales).

Taken further, up until 2026, they only have Hakim Ziyech, Malang Saar and Romelu Lukaku whose contracts will be fully accounted for. That will give them the space to spend £155m on new players over the next across the summers of 2024, 2025 and 2026 unless they make sales.

Meanwhile, Arsenal have Nicolas Pepe, Jorginho, Martin Odegaard, Thomas Partey, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Nuno Tavares, Ben White, Aaron Ramsdale, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Leandro Trossard, Kieran Tierney and Albert Sambi Lokonga set to become fully accounted for over the next 3 seasons.

That would free up £385m that can be spent over the 3 periods mentioned above. Obviously some might be sold prior to these, giving us more (and less to spend), or new commercial deals / Champions League money gives us even more freedom.

I bet by the end of 2026, Arsenal would have spent around the same in 5 years as Chelsea. The difference will be we spent ours across 5 seasons, they spent it across 2.

To put simple, Chelsea have done 5 years business in 2 seasons. They have taken a huge risk and are relying on these players on long contracts to become superstars.

As always, sums and figures are approximations. No one knows the exact amount a team has spent on transfers. But hopefully this shows how Chelsea are doing it, and staying within FFP. But are also banking on this crop of players being the ones that take them to the top.

Chelsea have very little room for error with this transfer strategy.

Keenos

Chaotic start to Arsenal’s 2023/24 campaign

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What a chaotic first game of the season!

The madness started before a ball was even kicked as the teams were read out.

Standing in the concourse, we saw Mikel Arteta’s first team selection of the season simultaneously on Sky Sports News and TNT Sports (formally BT): Ramsdale, White, Saliba, Rice, Timber, Partey, Odergaard, Havertz, Saka, Martinelli, Nketiah.

When it appeared on the screens there was almost mass “EH?” from everyone in the ground as it was an XI no one could have predicted.. Then Sky and TNT put their versions of the line-up up.

Sky went for a back 4 of White, Saliba, Rice and Timber. TNT went for Partey, White, Saliba, Timber. BBC went for the same. And then a couple of other apps showed Arsenal playing a back 3. All very confusing.

At this point, a pal turned round to me and said “the bars are quiet today” and quickly grabbed us all another poor, overly priced beer. It was about 12:10. As he came back, it was then announced why the bars were empty – the game had been delayed due to chaotic scenes outside the ground.

Arsenal had suffered a technological failure that resulted in the turnstiles not working and fans being able to get into the stadium.

The failure was not to do with the new digital passes, and all to do with the software that sits behind the turnstiles crashing.

When you swipe your pass (or previous membership card), a message is sent from the toughpad to a computer that then responds with a YES or NO. YES being for valid ticket, NO for invalid. If the answer is YES, the system goes green and lets you in. If NO, it means you get a red signal and can not get in.

Often the NO is due to you not holding your pass on for long enough and if you re-touch it, access is then granted.

The system went down, meaning that the card readers were not able to assess whether you had a valied ticket. The only way to resolve this was to reboot the system, which takes time. The old “turn it off and turn it back on”.

My understanding is the error in the system could have also happened with the membership cards, as it is the exact same process – think about paying for something with your phone or bank card, it is no different.

We live in a technology driven automatised world, and these sort of failures can happen anywhere.

I have been in pubs before where their wifi has gone down, and in turn that means they are unable to take card payments. Likewise I have been in supermarkets where the self-checkout machines go down and all need rebooted. This leads to long queues at the few remaining staff run checkouts whilst the system re-starts.

Arsenal did their best to control the situation, delaying the game and ensuring the safety of fans outside the stadium. Once the system was back up and running, fans begun entering the ground again.

Everyone got into the ground safely before kick off and no one was hurt. Whilst it was a confusing, chaotic situation, the stewards did the best they could. The important thing is we learn from it, and come up with a better plan on how to react if it happens again.

As always, some took the situation to promote themselves on social media, highlighting a few fans that got in without tickets, calling it “potentially another Hillsborough” and sharing pictures of the Ambulance services tending to a man who collapsed away from the crowds. These folk were just desperate to share negative news for their own promotion. Probably to try and boost their own failing blog or Fanzine.

Once the game kicked off, the chaos of the starting XI translated into chaos on the pitch.

You had Partey playing at right back with White inside him. Then Partey was at the right sides centre back position with White at right back. Then Rice was in the left centre back position with Partey in midfield. It led to a very disjointed defence, and one which Nottingham Forest nearly took advantage of.

Having consistently played a version of 433 / 4231 / 4141 throughout pre-season, I think Arteta risked trying to be too clever for his own good with a “fluid defence” on the opening game of the season.

Personally, with Gabriel not fit to start, I would have preferred Jakub Kiwior to come in. The Pole was solid last season and had a decent pre-season.

Despite the chaos in defence, we went two-nil up before half time with goals from Eddie Nketiah and Bukayo Saka. We then dominated play for most of the season half and only a couple of good saves from Matt Turner stopped Declan Rice getting his first Arsenal goals.

On a side note, what a player Declan Rice is. A proper all round midfielder. A Ruud Gullit re-gen.

Forest then made some changes, brigning on some power upfront and pace outwide, and almost immediately benefited as our fluid defence was exposed by Anthony Elanga electric pace.

We had overcomitted in attack, and Elanga found himself without a right back in-front of him and the length of the Emirates pitch to run into. He was direct and quick.

With only a single centre back, Taiwo Awoniyi showed great movement to get infront of William Saliba for a tap in.

6 minutes of normal time to go, plus whatever was to be added on, Steve Cooper bought on Chris Wood and Cheikhou Kouyate to add further height. The aim would have been to win corners and free kicks and create chaos in our box.

Arteta bought on Gabriel and went back to a flat back 4 with Rice and Partey covering them. This saw us regain some sort of control on the game, but Forest still looked a threat everytime they had an opportunity to pump a ball into the box.

We hang on for a 2-1 win and 3 points in the bag.

On to Crystal Palace next Monday, and hopefully less chaos in team selection, getting into Selhurst Park (although their away end is notoriously chaotic) and in the on-pitc performance.

You do not win the league in the opening 10-games of the season. But you can lose it. For now it is about results rather than performances.

UTA

Keenos