Monthly Archives: October 2023

Arsenal 2 points better off than last season, but will it be enough to be crowned Champions?

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There is a narrative out there that we have been poor this season. That Mikel Arteta has been found out. It is baffling.

Level on points with top of the league, we have played 12, won 8 and lost just once across all competitions.

We have already lifted the Community Shield, are through to the 4th round of the League Cup and have won 66.6666666666666% of our games.

Yes, there have been disappointments – the draws against Fulham and Tottenham, the defeat against Lens – but that is football. If teams “won all the games they should”, football would not be the most watched, exciting game in the world.

We are a better side than last season following the acquisition of Declan Rice, Kai Havertz, Jurrien Timber and David Raya.

Whilst Havertz is yet to fully get into his stride and Timber is our long term, Declan Rice is a signing that takes us to the next level.

In recent years, our challenge (whether that be for the title, 4th or 7th) has been derailed by injuries to Thomas Partey.

The Ghanaian has not started a league game since August (with just 1 substitute apeparance) and we won 4 out of 5 games in that period. Rice has been well worth every penny of the £105million.

Now some will point out “how are we better than last season when we have 2 points less”, and that is true. But just 8 games in, that statistic does not mean we are worse.

Infact, as pointed out by regular contributor Johnno, we “are actually 2 points better of this season than we were last against the same opposition“.

So we have 2 points more in the same games, although we have scored 2 loss and conceded 1 more. The goals scored difference is basically because we spanked Nottingham Forest 5-0 last season.

What is also interesting that last season, it needed an 86th minute winner to turn Fulham from 1 point to 3, and a 90th minute Eddie Nketiah goal to secure all 3-points against Manchester United.

I will concede that we do not look as free flowing this season as last, but I see that as a good sign.

Last year, we were so aggressive at the start of the season, building a lead ahead of Manchester City. But this fast start contributed to us running out of steam towards the end of the season.

This campaign, it feels like we are holding a little back, playing with the hand break on, trying our best not to get out of 3rd gear to win games. That tactic will leave us with more in the tank at the end of the year. And it is a tactic that is clearly working.

Now High Standards FC fans will be saying “well if we are better than last year, we shpould win the league”. No. That is not how football works.

You firstly need to assume that other teams around us have not improved – and I think it is clear and obvious that both Liverpool and Tottenham have improved. Manchester City, meanwhile, have certainly not gone backwards.

Secondly, you need to assume that our improvements are enough to make up the difference against how far behind we were last season.

Whilst the 2022/23 league table might show that we finished just 5 points behind Man City, it is easily forgotten that they secured the league title with them still having 2 games to play – and they only got 1 point from those 2 games.

I am sure that if they needed to win their final 2 matches of the season (Brighton and Brentford away), they would have done. Afterall, they were on a run of 12 league wins in a row when they secured the title. That would have seen them finish 11 points ahead of us.

If you buy in to the fact that Manchester City are no worse than last season, and they will not be throwing the last two games of the season due to FA Cup and Champions League finals, you have to think over 94 points is what will be needed to win the title this season.

Last season we got 84 points. So we need an extra 10 points. We basically need to average around 2.5 points a game – exactly what we are currently averaging. And again, that does not take into account that Manchester City or Liverpool might get even more than that.

This could be 2018/19 all over again when Liverpool finished 1 point behind City despite getting a huge 97 points!

I did not go into this season expecting us to win the league, despite the money spent in the summer and improvements I think we have made. What I expected was for us to back up what we did last season.

Liverpool showed that you beat Manchester City by “putting the pressure on” over a number of seasons, and position yourselves to lift the title if they ever have an off-season. We need to show that last year was not a “Spurs” season, a one-off. We need to back it up with another season where we push Man City.

And then next season we go again. Eventually Man City will get key injuries, wrong out of spun blood, and we will be in position to be crowned champions.

Even finishing 3rd this season behind Man City and a resurgent Liverpool will not be a step back. We just need to ensure we continue pushing them all the way to the end.

We are better than last year. The coresponding games prove that. We go again Saturday against Chelsea…

Keenos

Should Arsenal have sacrificed new midfield signing to secure Jude Bellingham?

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So yesterday during the first half of England v Italy (I turned off for the second half), I began making notes on what England players would get into The Arsenal starting XI.

This blog will not be published, as it was only really Kyle Walker and Jude Bellingham that I would take. Walker is one of the most underrated in the last 10-years. Bellingham is simply World Class.

Bellingham is not just one of the best young midfielders in the world, he is one of the best midfielders in the world. And he is quickly becoming one of the best players in the world (some will argue he already is!).

Last summer he joined Real Madrid for around £100million. A similar price to what we paid for Declan Rice.

At the time, the debate in the WhatsApp groud was whether we should have been targeting Bellingham ahead of Rice.

I came out in favour for the former-West Ham captain due to him being Premier League proven. I also felt it was a harder job to find a long term replacement for Thomas Partey in defensive midfield than invest a huge sum in a Granit Xhaka replacement – there are more top 8s in world football than top defensive midfielders.

What also swung it was that Rice could also play further forward, but I did not think Bellingham could play deeper.

There is no debate that Bellingham would have been a better option than Kai Havertz, but that is also why Bellingham cost Real Madrid around £30million more than the German.

There might have been an option to sign both Bellingham and Rice and completely revamped our midfield – there would not have been a better midfield trio in European football than Martin Odegaard, Bellingham and Rice.

We spent close to £200million duing the summer on Rice, Havertz and Jurrien Timber. A Bellingham and Rice window would have seen us sacrifice Havertz (not an issue with an upgrade in Bellingham) and Timber.

That would have left us without further defensive cover. And whilst Timber has picked up an injury, I think we can all agree that he was exactly what we needed in defence – covers all of the back 4 and provides another option as a ball playing defender.

Would I have wanted us to have signed Bellingham instead of Havertz AND Timber? I am not sure.

That would have left us short in defence (again, ignore that Timber then got injured), and probably would have resulted with either Kieran Tierney and Rob Holding staying – Timber replaces the pair.

So you if agree that Timber was an essential signing, then the option of Bellingham AND Rice is off the table. It is then Bellingham OR Rice. And I still think I was right in my original assessment.

Rice is a level ahead of Bellingham (although Jude is closing that gap), and covers a harder to fill position. Taking into account Partey’s injury issues and the forthcoming African Cup of Nations, it would have been dangerous to go into this season with the Ghanaian, Jorginho and an injured Mo Elneny as our defensive midfield options.

So if you are then signing Bellingham instead of Rice, you do not need Havertz. That gives you the Havertz money to recruit a more defensive minded midfielder.

Romeo Lavia joined Chelsea for not too disimilar money, and could have been a good understudy for Partey. Hi-jacking the deal that Manchester United agreed for Sofyan Amrabat would have been an idea – but he is another African in the middle.

Ibrahim Sangare has been highly rated by some for a while, but has shown with his struggles for Nottingham Forest that there is a huge gulf between the Premier League and Eredivisie.

Lavia really is the only stand-out candidate. So I guess it is then:

Bellingham, Lavia, Timber
Havertz, Rice, Timber
Bellingham, Rice

Let us know in the comments who you would have signed!

A last little note on this, it also assumes that we could have beaten Real Madrid to Bellingham’s signing. Too often fans moan about missing out on a player without accepting that the player might have preferred to join a different club.

Last, last comment on this.

“We should be monitoring Jobe Bellingham” was mentioned last night. Just no.

You do not monitor a player just because his brother is World Class. Paul Pogba’s brothers where nowhere near his ability. Nor were Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang’s or Eden Hazard’s.

At 18, Jude joined Dortmund
At 18, Jobe joined Sunderland

We should be monitoring players on their own ability, not that of a sibling.

Have a good Tuesday.

Keenos

Chelsea game can not come soon enough

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Morning! Later than normal blog today as I had an early meeting in North London!

It is only Tuesday so it feels a little early to be looking forward to this Saturday’s game, but there is little else to talk about.

We have had an excellent start to the season.

Whilst the naysayers keep going with their “Arteta has been found out this season”, we actually only sit 1 point behind where we were at the same stage last season.

Those same moaners have been in huge praise of Eddie Howe and Newcastle’s start to the season. “Eddie showing he is the real deal whilst Arteta is all PR” is one Tweet I saw. Newcastle are in 8th.

We have already faced Manchester City, Manchester United and Tottenham in our opening 3 games, getting 7 points out of 9.

Yes, it is frustrating that it was not 9 from 9, and with the Fulham draw as well an argument could be made we should have had a 100% start to the season. But that argument is probably made play people who are new to football, or trying to fit a narrative to their agenda.

Chelsea this weekend will be a huge test for us.

The 3 games against other former-big-6 teams have been at home. This will be the first visit of the season to a tricky away ground.

Whilst Chelsea are not the team they once were, they are on their best run for some time having won 2 Premier League games in a row – away to Burnley and Fulham; throw in the Brighton League Cup win and it is 3 wins from their last 3 games.

The Fulham game was a little fortuitus – Fulham dominated the play and had some good chances – but the victory away to Burnley was decisive.

Last season we beat Chelsea by a goal to nothing and it felt like a bit of a statement win having only beaten other big 6 sides at home up to that point.

Gone are those bad old days under Jose Mourinho et al where Chelsea seemed to take 3 points off us twice a season. They have beaten us just once in 8 games, with The Arsenal winning 6 of them. That victory was against a patched up, Covid hit team.

Our good form against Chelsea extend a long time prior to Covid as well.

In the last 23 games, our head to head against Chelsea reads: P 23 W 12 L 6 D 5. A run that goes back to April 2015.

Compare that to the previous 23 games: P 23 W 4 L 14 D 5, a run back to the 2005 Community Shield, and you can perhaps see why fans like myself are fairly confident about Saturday.

Saying that, having a good record against Chelsea means nothing if you do not win trophies, and I would much prefer having their record over the last 9 years against us and winning the trophies they have won!

So we have England tonight. Hopefully any of our players involved (basically Declan Rice) gets through unscathed. Then it is just prayers overnight with the two Gabi’s and Thomas Partey representing their countries I the early hours of tomorrow morning.

Have a great day!

Keenos