Did injury to 20-year-old attacker scupper Arsenal’s transfer plans?

I think we all have a right to be disappointed with our attacking recruitment this summer. It has certainly been a head scratcher.

A fairly public pursuit of Vinicius Jr, Julian Alvarez and Morgan Rogers all led to nothing. And on top of that we “forced” Gabriel Martinelli out of the club, and Gabriel Jesus also departed alongside Leandro Trossard. With only Christos Tzolis’s coming in, that results in a -2 net loss for attacking options.

Whilst Gabriel Jesus contributed very little last season, we have basically gone from 3 options on the left wing (Martinelli, Trossard and Eberechi Eze) to two options. That is a big step back it feels in a position that we should have been taking a huge stride forward.

There have been a lot of narratives told already about what happened over the summer. From Moving away from Rogers to focus on Vinicius Jr, to ultimately miss out on both, and a pursuit for Alvarez who always wanted Barcelona. Through these pursuits, we have allowed “lesser” talents to be snapped up by rivals and ended up leaving the game without a chair. But is their a narrative that has not been told?

Eli Junior Kroupi looks like he would be the perfect Arteta player for that inside left position.

In Arteta’s line up, he prefers the right hand side to play with width, and the left hand side to be narrower in attack – with the width being provided by the full back. He almost wants our left hand sides attacker to be playing off the central striker, rather than stuck on the wing.

To do that, whoever plays on the left needs to be comfortable playing inside, and an instinctive shooter – also accurate from distance. They will not be expected to be a key creator, but expected to benefit from the space and time given to them by us overloading the right hand side.

The attacking tactic would be simple and two fold – overload the right to create space on the other side for a quick ball over the top or get the ball in quickly from a central position to the striker for a quick lay off to the left. In both situations, you then want a forward capable of finding space, coming onto the ball and getting one or two touch shots off. That is why we looked at Julian Alvarez who may have excelled in this role.

Kroupi was fantastic for Bournemouth last season playing off that left hand side. With 13 Premier League goals at just 19, he established himself as one of the most extensive shooters in the game coming in off that left hand side. Alongside his shorting, he also had pace to burn which would ensure that he would not be one-dimensional.

So is their a narrative that Kroupi was out first choice, and his ankle injury scuppered our transfer plans? I think so.

Following an ankle injury that ruled Kroupi out until November, Arsenal would have had a decision to make.

  1. Buy an injured Eli Junior Kroupi
  2. Explore alternative options
  3. Stick with what we have

The first option was simple not on the table. Bournemouth would unlikely “accept less” for Kroupi despite him being injured. It would have been a huge amount of money paid without any knowledge of how he would recover. A huge, huge risk. One not worthwhile taking when you consider the January transfer window will be open a couple of months after he regains fitness.

Our first course of action was to explore alternatives to Kroupi. 3 options presented themselves. Either go for ceiling raisers, young hype, or someone “mid”. We went for the ceiling raisers.

If we could not secure our primary target, then whoever came in would ideally be better than our primary target. That would take any deal for Kroupi off the table. First we went for Rogers, then Vinicius Jr, all the while keeping our hat in the ring for Julian Alvarez.

We missed out on all 3 which led opposing fans to scoff and mock.

Chelsea hugely overpaid for Rogers. I do not think any Arsenal fan would have been comfortable us spending £117m for him. As for Vinicus Jr, it is no shame for a player wanting to stay at Real Madrid. And finally on Alvarez, he only ever really wanted Barcelona, and Atletico Madrid pretty much made a move away to any club impossible.

Looking throughout every transfer in world football, no one has moved who is near the talent of Rogers, Vinicius or Alvarez.

Whilst a lot of left wingers have moved this summer, they all fall into the category of either “mid” or young hype.

Looking at the likes of Cody Gakpo, Bradley Barcola, Anthony Gordon and Rafael Leao. These guys are not ceiling raisers. They are mid players who would have commanded huge salaries and transfer fees.

Signing them would likely have also taken the future recruitment of Kroupi off the table. They would have not left enough in our transfer kitty to go out for Kroupi in January, be on too high wages to be 2nd or 3rd choice, and ultimately would not have left the space in the squad for a Kroupi acquisition in January.

Whilst these players are more proven than Kroupi, they do not have a ceiling as high as him. They are already at their best and unlikely to get better. If he returns from injury and continues on his current upward curve, Kroupi will be better than all of the above within 12 months, and likely be spoken about in the same terms as Vinicius Jr, Rogers and Alvarez in 24. It would make no sense to spend big on a player who is not really good enough and does not have the potential to improve. Especially after already signing Tzolis.

Towards the end of last week, the news dropped that we were interested in Malick Fofana.

Having been snubbed by ceiling raisers and clearly not having much interest in a mid-winger, we were clearly exploring young talents. But this would all have been about a market opportunity.

It would have been pointless signing a young, talented left winger if the preference was still to go for Kroupi in January. We simply would not have been able to give both enough game time to progress them. Arsenal would only have gone down the young option if the price was right, and that player could offer us something elsewhere.

Fofana at £25m and £50k a week did that. He is a fantastic player capable of playing on both wings and through the middle. We could easily have signed him without blocking the potential pathway for Kroupi, and also not invested too much in him.

At those sort of figures and salary, Fofana would not have been too tough to move on in 12 or 24 months if an alternative option appeared. We would not have been left holding a huge unamortised transfer fee for a player on £200k a week (which would have been the scenario had we gone for Cody Gakpo).

Talk was that some at Arsenal fancied Fofana, whilst others did not. And at this stage the casting vote should go to Arteta.

Fofana was coming off his own long term injury, and I do not think he is quite there yet to make an impact at Arsenal. He would have taken some developing. And if Arteta does not fancy him, he will not play him and therefore he will not develop.

You also have to remember with any young signing is the presence of Eze.

Arteta likes Eze. Were a young player to come in, Arteta would have to fancy them more than Eze. Otherwise all that will happen is Eze will get the minutes – either starting or coming off the bench – that could go to a young, new signing. And Arteta is the king maker at Arsenal. It is his right, his job, to make those decisions.

So we go for a young hype like Fofana, they then do not get the game time to develop as Arteta prefers Eze. and then in January we go form Kroupi.

We are now where we are. Ultimately after exploring alternatives, we have decided to stick with what we have. Tzolis and Eze.

The key now, I feel, will be to watch how Kroupi returns from his injury. If he shows no ill effect, we go in for him in January. Sign our primary target, just 6 months later. If he does not recover, then at least we have not squandered money on players who are not good enough, or who Arteta does not fancy. We then continue to explore what is a very tough market to find that superstar, or potential superstar.

And in 12 months, the likes of Fofana may have developed further having played regular football. You then might spend double what you could have got them for this summer, but you would be doing that with more certainty as to what that player you are signing could become.

We are all disappointed at our left wing recruitment. But as always there is a bigger picture.

3 games in, 0 goals conceded, 1 trophy in the bag, 6 points from 6. There is very little Arsenal fans should be moaning about right now.

Keenos

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