After all the noise last season and this surrounding Premier League decision making, the Key Match Incident (KMI) Panel confirm what we all knew – that Arsenal get unfavourable decisions and Man City get a lot of mistakes in their favour.

Sunderland penalty for as wrong

The most recent development concerns Arsenal’s 2-0 victory at Sunderland.

During that match, Sunderland were awarded a penalty after Dan Ballard and Arsenal defender Ezri Konsa came together inside the area. Mikel Arteta was furious with the decision at the time, while David Raya subsequently saved the spot-kick.

The KMI Panel subsequently backed Arsenal’s underlying complaint.

The panel unanimously judged that the on-field decision to award Sunderland a penalty was incorrect. It concluded that Ballard pulled Konsa onto him, despite Konsa initiating the contact.

There is an important wrinkle, however.

The panel did not believe VAR should have intervened. By a 3-2 majority, it concluded that the referee’s mistake did not reach the Premier League’s high threshold for a clear and obvious error.

So Arsenal were, according to the review, on the wrong end of an incorrect decision — but the VAR process itself was deemed correct.

That distinction is exactly why the KMI system exists.

Villa Park was another one

Sunderland wasn’t the first time Arsenal had found themselves on the wrong side of an official review.

In their victory at Aston Villa, Arsenal were denied a late penalty after Ian Maatsen’s challenge on Bruno Guimarães. The KMI Panel subsequently ruled that a penalty should have been awarded and that VAR should have intervened.

The panel considered the challenge reckless, noting that Maatsen made contact with Guimarães’ standing leg without touching the ball. It also concluded that a second yellow card should have followed.

So there are two clear examples of Arsenal decisions being judged incorrectly by the panel.

Neither ultimately changed the result of the relevant Arsenal match, but that doesn’t make the decisions irrelevant.

And then there is Manchester City

Manchester City’s situation is slightly different, but considerably more high-profile.

In the Manchester derby, Erling Haaland’s winning goal against Manchester United was initially ruled out for offside before VAR overturned the decision.

The problem? City’s Enzo Fernández was in an offside position and attempted to play the ball, with the KMI Panel unanimously concluding that his position affected the defenders and goalkeeper.

The panel therefore judged that the VAR intervention which resulted in the goal being awarded was incorrect.

That goal stood, of course, and City won the derby 1-0.

Man City benefit whilst Arsenal punished

This is where the numbers need a little care.

It is fair to say that Arsenal have had two confirmed incorrect decisions go against them: the Sunderland penalty and the missed Villa Park penalty.

It is also fair to say that Manchester City have benefited from a major incorrect VAR outcome, namely Haaland’s disallowed-then-awarded goal against Manchester United.

But the Premier League’s official KMI findings do not currently establish two separate incorrect refereeing decisions going in City’s favour.

Indeed, another recent City incident – Josko Gvardiol’s disallowed goal against Sunderland being overturned for offside – was assessed as a correct VAR intervention.

That doesn’t invalidate the frustration Arsenal supporters may feel. It simply means the argument is strongest when it sticks to the decisions that have actually been independently reviewed.

And perhaps that’s the most interesting part of this whole debate.

The KMI system is providing supporters with something that football arguments rarely have: an official post-match assessment of whether the referee got it right.

For Arsenal, the current record makes uncomfortable reading. For City, the Haaland incident remains a major officiating error that directly affected a match result.

What happens next will be worth watching — because with the season only a few weeks old, the refereeing conversation is clearly not going away anytime soon.

DJ