The source

Arsenal interested in signing Darwin Nunez before Friday’s transfer deadline. Player keen to move to London and work under Mikel to win trophies + Liverpool willing to sell. Improbable but not impossible.

— AFCAMDEN (@AFCAMDEN) August 27, 2024

It ha been a while since “AFCAMDEN” has been a reliable source of Arsenal information.

During the early days of Twitter, he was a key man to follow, alongside GeoffArsenal. But he has not had reliable intel on the club since the days of Jack Wilshere was playing for us. In the preceding years, he has swung and missed on many an occassion.

The story took off with many other ITK accounts jumping on the bandwagon with “what they had heard”. Basically, they are all making it up jut so that they can farm interactions and ensure that if a deal happens, they can say “told you so”.

I also would not be surprised if this is just a big wind up.

We have seen before big Twitter accounts and blogs get together to falsely link us to a player to highlight the issue of the media and ITK accounts jumping on the link without having any knowledge. A sort of experiment to expose the idiots.

Saying that, Darwin Nunez to Arsenal is a a deal that “could” happen.

The role

I have long been of the belief that signing someone who is better than Kai Havertz is not an easy task. And this summer, we have seen inferior strikers to the German go for over £60m.

When you look at the centre-forwards that have moved this summer, only really Kylian Mbappe would have been a huge step up on Havertz. And he was always going to Real Madrid. The likes of Julian Alvarez, Dominic Solanke, Joshua Zirkzee and Elye Wahi would not have improved our first XI.

Ivan Toney, Victor Osimhen and Viktor Gyokeres are still on the market, but for various reasons (Toney – Attitude, Osimhen – Wages, Gyokeres – Overpriced) we have not moved for them. Osimhen aside, I also do not think that either Toney or Gyokeres would immediately come in ahead of Havertz.

Having missed out on Benjamin Sesko, and with Dusan Vlahovic happy to stay at Juventus, perhaps the powers that be have decided to look at players that can be an upgrade on Gabriel Jesus, provide cover and competition for Havertz, and could potentially replace him as first choice over time. A lower level of striker. A back-up dancer.

The player

Darwin Nunez has very similar strength and weaknesses to Gabriel Jesus.

Both players are not natural centre forwards, and neither is a clinical goal scorer. But they make up for that in their hardworking, trickiness and versatillity – capable of playing across the front 3.

The pair are more of a threat on the counter attack than Havertz, and more likely to make a goal from nothing. Their versatility also means then will drift wide from central positions, creating space for others to fill.

If we were looking for a “like for like” replacement to Jesus, then Nunez would be high on the “similar” list.

Where Nunez would be an upgrade on Jesus is that he does not have Jesus’s injury record, and is 2-years younger.

Nunez has missed just 12 games injured for Liverpool in the 2-years since joining. In the same time Jesus has missed 33-games. And Nunez’s injuries have been minor (shoulder problems, muscle tightness), whilst Jesus clearly has knee problems.

The finances

I like Gabriel Jesus.

When he joined Arsenal from Manchester City, Jesus was our marquee signing of the summer and a sign of our new era beginning; as a result he got the wages that a player of his stature would command.

Whilst in the two-year Jesus has been part of the project which has seen us finish runners-up to Manchester City twice, he himself is no longer an important starting player.

Jesus provides fantastic cover for Havertz upfront, and can also be cover and competition for both Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka. The issue (beyond his fitness), is he is on first team wages when he is now a squad player.

At a reported £265k a week, Jesus is our 2nd highest paid player after Kai Havertz (£280k a week). Side note: Jesus is still on less than Jack Grealish, Raheem Sterling, and Marcus Rashford.

Darwin Nunez, meanwhile, is “only” on £140k a week.

Whilst you would expect Nunez to get a payrise moving from Liverpool to Arsenal, I would imagine the uplift would be in the region of an additional £2million a year. That would put him on £180k a week and make him our 8th highest paid player alongside Gabriel Martinelli.

Were these figures to work out, then the club would be saving £4.4m a year in salary. A sum not to be sniffed out. But what about transfer fees and amortisation costs?

Jesus joined Arsenal for £45m in 2022 on a 5-year deal. He is currently costing us £9m a year. We would need to receive a transfer fee in the region of £27m to ensure that we “break even” on book value this summer. Anything below this will cost Arsenal money.

The same year, Nunez joined Liverpool for £64million, signing a 6-year deal. As it stands, he has a book value of £42.6m.

Now for a couple of different scenarios:

1. Both clubs look to break even – If all both clubs want to do is get wages off the books and break even on the book value, then Arsenal need to sell Jesus for £27m, and the fee to sign Nunez would be £42.6m.
   
   If you assume that Nunez signs a 5-year contract, that will mean that Arsenal would have pretty much maintained the status quo in terms of breaking even on Jesus, and not increasing their amortisation costs in signing Nuez
   
2. Liverpool want more – £42.6m does feel cheap for Nunez considering what other forwards have gone for this summer. So what, realistically, could Arsenal go up to without seeing their costs increase?
   
   If a contract is agreed with Nunez for the aforementioned £180k a week, then we would be saving £4.4m on salary. Over 5-years, that is worth £22m. So Arsenal could go as high as £64.6m. Nunez would then cost the club around £22.28m a year (£12.92m amortised transfer fee, £9.36m salary), whilst Jesus is currently costing £22.78m (£9m amortised transfer fee, £13.78m salary).
   
3. Arsenal struggle to shift Jesus – You have to feel that Saudi Arabia is the only place that will pay both the £27m Arsenal would want for Jesus, and the £265k a week Jesus will want to ensure he receives pay parity. But what if the offer does not come in from the Middle East? Arsenal would then have to look at a deal that either sees us accept a lesser fee (to allow the buying club to pay more in wages), or continue to pay some of Jesus’s wages for the next 3 years.
   
   We would still have that £4.4m to play with, if we got Nunez for £45m. So that could see us accept an offer as low as £13.8m from a club, with £4.4m to paid to Jesus over the next 4-years. Or a deal done for £27m and Arsenal pay Jesus £13.8m to leave. Both work out the same.
   
   These figures would see Jesus pick up around £180k a week at a new club, with either an additional £4.4m a year for the first 3-years, or Arsenal paying him the difference. Either way, our outgoings would remain the same now.

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If we can get the finances to work, where we sell Gabriel Jesus and sign Darwin Nunez with seeing an increase in our outgoings, then for me it is a no brainer.

Nunez is younger and fitter, with both players offering similar in terms of style of play and output. We would be upgrading on Jesus, strengthening the squad, with seeing any change in our finances.

But the big two questions are:

At 27-years-old, is Jesus ready to hang up his top level professional career and go into semi-retirement in Saudi Arabia?
Are the links anymore than an unreliable source just looking for interaction?

And a final thought, could we accommodate both Nunez and Jesus for a season? With Nunez coming in as Havertz cover, and Jesus then becoming Saka’s back up? And if this happened, is it sensible for a back up dancer to be on more than the player starting ahead of him?

Have a good Thursday.

Keenos

Ian Wright Wright Wright! @IanWright0 https://t.co/ZKqSB0rxzq pic.twitter.com/XHuJVjybiN

— Kick Off Merchants (@KOMerchants) August 26, 2024