Author Archives: keenosafc

Darwin Nunez to Arsenal – Making sense of an unlikely deal

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The source

It ha been a while since “AFCAMDEN” has been a reliable source of Arsenal information.

During the early days of Twitter, he was a key man to follow, alongside GeoffArsenal. But he has not had reliable intel on the club since the days of Jack Wilshere was playing for us. In the preceding years, he has swung and missed on many an occassion.

The story took off with many other ITK accounts jumping on the bandwagon with “what they had heard”. Basically, they are all making it up jut so that they can farm interactions and ensure that if a deal happens, they can say “told you so”.

I also would not be surprised if this is just a big wind up.

We have seen before big Twitter accounts and blogs get together to falsely link us to a player to highlight the issue of the media and ITK accounts jumping on the link without having any knowledge. A sort of experiment to expose the idiots.

Saying that, Darwin Nunez to Arsenal is a a deal that “could” happen.

The role

I have long been of the belief that signing someone who is better than Kai Havertz is not an easy task. And this summer, we have seen inferior strikers to the German go for over £60m.

When you look at the centre-forwards that have moved this summer, only really Kylian Mbappe would have been a huge step up on Havertz. And he was always going to Real Madrid. The likes of Julian Alvarez, Dominic Solanke, Joshua Zirkzee and Elye Wahi would not have improved our first XI.

Ivan Toney, Victor Osimhen and Viktor Gyokeres are still on the market, but for various reasons (Toney – Attitude, Osimhen – Wages, Gyokeres – Overpriced) we have not moved for them. Osimhen aside, I also do not think that either Toney or Gyokeres would immediately come in ahead of Havertz.

Having missed out on Benjamin Sesko, and with Dusan Vlahovic happy to stay at Juventus, perhaps the powers that be have decided to look at players that can be an upgrade on Gabriel Jesus, provide cover and competition for Havertz, and could potentially replace him as first choice over time. A lower level of striker. A back-up dancer.

The player

Darwin Nunez has very similar strength and weaknesses to Gabriel Jesus.

Both players are not natural centre forwards, and neither is a clinical goal scorer. But they make up for that in their hardworking, trickiness and versatillity – capable of playing across the front 3.

The pair are more of a threat on the counter attack than Havertz, and more likely to make a goal from nothing. Their versatility also means then will drift wide from central positions, creating space for others to fill.

If we were looking for a “like for like” replacement to Jesus, then Nunez would be high on the “similar” list.

Where Nunez would be an upgrade on Jesus is that he does not have Jesus’s injury record, and is 2-years younger.

Nunez has missed just 12 games injured for Liverpool in the 2-years since joining. In the same time Jesus has missed 33-games. And Nunez’s injuries have been minor (shoulder problems, muscle tightness), whilst Jesus clearly has knee problems.

The finances

I like Gabriel Jesus.

When he joined Arsenal from Manchester City, Jesus was our marquee signing of the summer and a sign of our new era beginning; as a result he got the wages that a player of his stature would command.

Whilst in the two-year Jesus has been part of the project which has seen us finish runners-up to Manchester City twice, he himself is no longer an important starting player.

Jesus provides fantastic cover for Havertz upfront, and can also be cover and competition for both Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka. The issue (beyond his fitness), is he is on first team wages when he is now a squad player.

At a reported £265k a week, Jesus is our 2nd highest paid player after Kai Havertz (£280k a week). Side note: Jesus is still on less than Jack Grealish, Raheem Sterling, and Marcus Rashford.

Darwin Nunez, meanwhile, is “only” on £140k a week.

Whilst you would expect Nunez to get a payrise moving from Liverpool to Arsenal, I would imagine the uplift would be in the region of an additional £2million a year. That would put him on £180k a week and make him our 8th highest paid player alongside Gabriel Martinelli.

Were these figures to work out, then the club would be saving £4.4m a year in salary. A sum not to be sniffed out. But what about transfer fees and amortisation costs?

Jesus joined Arsenal for £45m in 2022 on a 5-year deal. He is currently costing us £9m a year. We would need to receive a transfer fee in the region of £27m to ensure that we “break even” on book value this summer. Anything below this will cost Arsenal money.

The same year, Nunez joined Liverpool for £64million, signing a 6-year deal. As it stands, he has a book value of £42.6m.

Now for a couple of different scenarios:

  1. Both clubs look to break even – If all both clubs want to do is get wages off the books and break even on the book value, then Arsenal need to sell Jesus for £27m, and the fee to sign Nunez would be £42.6m.

    If you assume that Nunez signs a 5-year contract, that will mean that Arsenal would have pretty much maintained the status quo in terms of breaking even on Jesus, and not increasing their amortisation costs in signing Nuez
  2. Liverpool want more – £42.6m does feel cheap for Nunez considering what other forwards have gone for this summer. So what, realistically, could Arsenal go up to without seeing their costs increase?

    If a contract is agreed with Nunez for the aforementioned £180k a week, then we would be saving £4.4m on salary. Over 5-years, that is worth £22m. So Arsenal could go as high as £64.6m. Nunez would then cost the club around £22.28m a year (£12.92m amortised transfer fee, £9.36m salary), whilst Jesus is currently costing £22.78m (£9m amortised transfer fee, £13.78m salary).
  3. Arsenal struggle to shift Jesus – You have to feel that Saudi Arabia is the only place that will pay both the £27m Arsenal would want for Jesus, and the £265k a week Jesus will want to ensure he receives pay parity. But what if the offer does not come in from the Middle East? Arsenal would then have to look at a deal that either sees us accept a lesser fee (to allow the buying club to pay more in wages), or continue to pay some of Jesus’s wages for the next 3 years.

    We would still have that £4.4m to play with, if we got Nunez for £45m. So that could see us accept an offer as low as £13.8m from a club, with £4.4m to paid to Jesus over the next 4-years. Or a deal done for £27m and Arsenal pay Jesus £13.8m to leave. Both work out the same.

    These figures would see Jesus pick up around £180k a week at a new club, with either an additional £4.4m a year for the first 3-years, or Arsenal paying him the difference. Either way, our outgoings would remain the same now.

If we can get the finances to work, where we sell Gabriel Jesus and sign Darwin Nunez with seeing an increase in our outgoings, then for me it is a no brainer.

Nunez is younger and fitter, with both players offering similar in terms of style of play and output. We would be upgrading on Jesus, strengthening the squad, with seeing any change in our finances.

But the big two questions are:

At 27-years-old, is Jesus ready to hang up his top level professional career and go into semi-retirement in Saudi Arabia?
Are the links anymore than an unreliable source just looking for interaction?

And a final thought, could we accommodate both Nunez and Jesus for a season? With Nunez coming in as Havertz cover, and Jesus then becoming Saka’s back up? And if this happened, is it sensible for a back up dancer to be on more than the player starting ahead of him?

Have a good Thursday.

Keenos

Arsenal’s left-wing problem

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No, you have not stumbled across a political blog. I am not going into a rant about the left-wing politics in the UK and our clubs association with Jeremy Corbyn. This is all about Arsenal’s left hand side.

The Martinelli problem

We are are only two games in, so do not think that this is a pile-on. Gabriel Martinelli was poor last season and he has not started 2024/25 in great form.

Mikel Arteta keeps moving Arsenal forward by buying better players that what he has. And right now the left wing is a position you look at and think “we can do better”. And I say that with a heavy heart.

Martinelli is a fantastic player. I love his story and he can be very proud as to how far he has come in football in a very short amount of time. But he has not kicked on from an excellent 2022/23 season.

With 15 goals and 5 assists in the 2022/23 Premier League season, Martinelli was an exciting young talent who looked ready to become a global superstar. But instead of kicking on in 2023/24, he scored just 6 goals and got 4 assists.

Now it is not all his fault.

Arsenal are extremely right hand side dominant, with much of our attacking play coming down the right flank with that Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka double up.

With Granit Xhaka gone, and Oleksandr Zinchenko playing an inverted role, Martinelli is often isolated on the left hand side.

He does not have a full back wrapping around the outside, nor does he have a midfielder to play quick one twos off. That leaves Martinelli having to do everything himself, and often not having a quick “get out pass” that Saka has.

Whenever Saka is on the ball, he always has easy passes on with either Ben White or Odegaard. If he finds himself down a blind alley, he can easily recycle the ball, retain possession and restart play. Martinelli often does not have that option which results in him either losing possession or trying to play a difficult pass.

But the change of tactics can not be an excuse for Martinelli. He needs to adapt or die.

On that left hand side, we need someone who is a “one on one merchant”. Someone who is comfortable being the only attacker, often in plenty of space, who will look to take his fullback on for fun. It feels like Martinelli has gone backwards when it comes to taking on an opponent.

Martinelli still has the potential and ability to step up and remain as Arsenal’s first choice midfielder, but he needs to up his level in the same way Saka did a couple of years ago.

Turning 24 at the end of next season, if he continues his current level he might have to accept being a squad player at Arsenal rather than a starter.

What about Trossard?

The lack of celebration after his opener against Aston Villa was apparently Leandro Trossard making it clear that he was unhappy on the bench.

Players should be upset about being on the bench. They should use this as motivation and work harder in training, forcing their way into the team. But also Trossard has to understand football is a squad game, that we are two games into the new season, and there are plenty of minutes to go around.

Last season, Martinelli started 24 league games, Trossard started 18. The Belgium playing around 300 minutes less over the season than the Brazilian. So he really should not be too upset about a lack of playing time.

After the goal, the usual “Trossard must start next game” was said by many. But it is not something I agree with.

Trossard always looks best when coming off the bench. He thrives when games are less structured. When he can play off his natural instincts rather than to a game plan.

He looks an inferior player when he starts games, with our structured play often breaking down or slowing up when the ball gets to him. He is so much better doing what he did on Saturday – finding space around the edge of the box and getting a shot off.

Not blessed with a lot of space, Trossard takes advantage of tired minds. When he starts, when defenders are both sharp in body and mind, he is not as effective.

So short term, Martinelli should still be our main starter, with Trossard acting as a super sub.

A new left winger

All summer we have been linked with Nico Williams. And I would not be upset if we signed him this summer.

Williams is the sort of one on one merchant that would excel in Arsenal’s current way of playing. He will destroy his full back for fun throughout and create so many opportunities for himself and others. But if he is not available, then we need to stick with Martinelli for another year.

Any winger that comes in needs to be better than Martinelli. They need to come into our first XI and be able to make an impact. And if that means another year with Martinelli whilst we scout his long term replacement, then so be it. It also gives Martinelli the chance to make that next step forward.

But what for Martinelli

This summer a lot of fans have spoken about getting in cover for Bukayo Saka. I do not agree with that.

We have been linked with Ademola Lookman, and I do not think he is better than Saka, Martinelli or Trossard. The new winger needs to be better than Martinelli.

Signing a Nico Williams level player would then see Martinelli relegated to the bench. But as we have seen with Trossard, there is plenty of game time to go around.

I can certainly forsee a situation where Williams plays 65 minutes, and then Martinelli comes on for the last half an hour. His freshness and pressing will destroy a tired full back.

Martinelli would also become Saka’s cover. So in one transfer, we would have improved our starting XI, and strengthened our squad depth.

I also think that we will see Gabriel Jesus depart in 12 months.

Right now Jesus plays a trio of roles for Arsenal – he is cover for Kai Havertz, and provides an option on the left and right hand side.

Either this summer or next a new striker will come in, and with Jesus and Eddie Nketiah gone, Martinelli will be the 3rd choice striker, as well as 2nd choice on both wings.

And Trossard?

Maybe the reason for Trossard’s lack of celebration is that we are on the verge of signing a new left winger this summer. And that man incoming will relegate Trossard to 4th choice on the wings.

If Trossard is unhappy being a squad player, then I have no issue us cashing in on him if his sacrifice means we get a Nico Williams. But I would prefer it if he stayed.

Trossard would be a good option on either wing, and still be a super-sub option. He would also have a role to play more centrally.

You can see a situation where after 70 minutes we are struggling to break down our opponents. On comes Martinelli replacing the left winger, and on come Leandro Trossard replacing Mikel Merino (or whoever is playing in that left hand side attacking position).

Trossard could also be Martin Odegaard’s cover on the right side of midfield, whilst covering Saka as another option.

He turns 30 in December, but as someone who has never relied on electric pace will still have a few years left at the top. Trossard is the player some think Emile Smith Rowe is. He is also a superior player to Fabio Vieira.

Sign a new starting left winger, Trossard will still get plenty of game time.

When fans talk about us needing a new striker, I often change the narrative to us needing a new attacker.

For me, there are more wide forwards that would improve us than strikers – I am thinking Nico Williams, Rafael Leao and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia. All three would be an upgrade on Martinelli and are more gettable than Victor Oshmein. They would also be better value and improve us more than the likes of Ivan Toney or Viktor Gykokeres.

Over the next two summers, I expect us to sign a new left winger and new striker. Depending on what order we sign them now depends on Gabriel Jesus’s latest injury, and who is out on the market.

A final thought: Whilst Jesus’s injury might lead us to go sign a striker, it would need to be the right man. I would actually prefer us to go and get Williams, and Martinelli becomes Havertz cover (until Jesus is fit).

Keenos

Be careful what you wish for, Be careful what you wish for, Be careful what you wish for

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Be careful what you wish for I

David Raya, what a keeper.

In recent years, not only have we had to heard from some Arsenal fans who Aaron Ramsdale was treated unfairly (but they never say Bernd Leno was treated unfairly), we also had to hear some crying about how we sold the self-proclaimed “best keeper in the world”.

Emi Martinez is a decent keeper, but he has never been top, top level.

Villa fans like to claim he is the best in the world, and point to him winning the World Cup in 2022 as their proof. But winning a World Cup does not make you the best ever! I also laugh that they celebrate Martinez’s exploits with Argentina as if they were their own victories. I guess that is what happens when you used to be a big club but have just 2 League Cups in 42 years to your name.

Martinez is a flamboyant shot stopper. A little bit Hollywood. He is also fantastic at saving penalties, and made their extraordinary last minute save in that World Cup final. But he has never had the consistency to be the best in the world.

At Arsenal, there were always concerns about his concentration and how often he let he shots he really should have saved. This is still a huge downfall of his game.

Martinez should have saved against Thomas Partey. It was not a difficult save to make. And for whatever reason Martinez went with two hands when it should have been one. It shows his poor decision making.

Throughout a season, Martinez will let in 5 or 6 similar goals. Shots that he should have easily saved but has let them squirt through. It is just not highlighted as he does not play for a top club.

If Martinez played for Arsenal, and we lost 2-0 to Aston Villa with him conceding that, it would have been analysed post game, and BBC would have done a montage of similar errors over the last 12 months.

At the same time, David Raya had yet another solid game. He pulled of some unbelievable saves whilst doing the basics well.

Last season, Raya kept the most clean sheets, winning the Golden Gloves and was named in the PFA Team of the Year by his fellow pro’s. This season he has made match winning saves against both Wolves and Villa. He is an unbelievable keeper.

Raya is a level ahead of both Martinez and Ramsdale. Let’s stop wishing for Arsenal keepers of past when the present one is arguably the best in the league!

Be careful what you wish for II

Against Wolves, Kai Havertz had two chances that were not easy. But some fans reacted like they were simple chances that “a proper striker would have put away”.

One chance was on Havertz’s weaker right foot, when he tried to bend it into the top corner and it went wrong. It certainly was not an easy chance on a players weak foot.

At the time, I made the point that I had seen Thierry Henry, Ian Wright and others miss that exact chance on their weaker foot – it either goes horribly wide, or is an easy save for the keeper as the forward has gone for placement over accuracy.

Neither chance missed by Havertz was as simple as fans made out. And whilst I do not look too much into xG, we had an xG of 1.63 in the Wolves match, scoring 2 goals. Had Havertz scored both his “easy” chances, we would have scored 4, despite the xG being just 1.63. The one Havertz missed wide, the statisticians put down as it being 40% chance of scoring.

Aston Villa have a proper striker in Ollie Watkins.

In the first half, he should have put Villa 1-nil up, but scuffed wide with the goal at his mercy.

And he topped that off in the second half by not burying the diving header with Raya on the ground.

Yes, it Raya was exceptional in how quickly he got up and flung himself at the ball, but you would expect a striker to be able to put that header wide off to give the keeper in chance.

Now I am not saying Watkins is a bad striker. He is fantastic. But my point is even “proper” strikers miss chances. And as Ian Wright used to say, no one remembers the ones you miss if you score. Unless, of course, you are Kai Havertz.

Be careful what you wish for III

For a long time now Everton have been the worst run club in English football.

Whilst their fans act like the Premier League and the “Red Cartel” are conspiring against them, the blame on their demise should go to those running the club.

When Farhad Moshiri sold his Arsenal shares and bought Everton, he begun to splash the cash. That led to Arsenal fans crying that it should have been us benefiting from Moshri’s friend, Alisher Usmanov’s ill-gotten gains, and it was only a matter of time until Everton replace us as part of the “Big 6”.

Roll on a few years and Everton are bottom of the table and look set to be in the relegation battle for the fourth season in a row.

They have no money, are struggling to pay the bills, have had to take out 100s of millions of pounds in loans to pay the wages, and are basically fucked.

Sean Dyche spoke post-game about how he had been told there was no money to spend. And it is not because of PSR. It is because Everton are on the brink of administration. and this despite selling £70m+ this summer.

In recent years, Everton have spent too much on players, too much on wages. They are the worst run club in England. And their fans have to take the blame for acting like it is everyone else’s fault, rather than shining the light on their owners.

In their strive to remain liquid whilst building the best stadium outside the top division, they have failed to invest in their academy. That means that were they to go down, they would have to sell the likes of Jarrad Branthwaite for cheap and they would not have much in their academy to come through.

If they go down, administration will hit them like a freight train and I would not be surprised if they get relegated from the Championship. They will then mimic Leeds United and not be back for over a decade.

Be careful what you wish for, Arsenal fans.

Keenos