Author Archives: keenosafc

What next for The Arsenal in the transfer market?

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With Riccardo Calafiori in the door as our first major signing, and Emile Smith Rowe joining Albert Sambi Lokonga and Nuno Tavares in departing the club, but business can we expect next for The Arsenal?

Mikel Merino

Next through the door is likely to be Real Sociedad’s midfielder Mikel Merino.

Whilst the Spanish midfielder might not be the a big name, or come with a big price tag, that some are demanding, he is the player that Mikel Arteta wants.

If you want to understand the impact Merino can have, read our recent blog on him.

That blog finishes with a comparison to Mateo Kovacic – The Croat joined Man City for just £25m last summer and provided Pep Guardiola with an experienced, versatile option. Kovacic was able to cover Rodri as the sole defensive midfielder, and is an option to play further forward when Pep wants to play a little more defensive. Merino does the same for Declan Rice and Arteta.

Reiss Nelson to leave on loan

Having seen Emile Smith Rowe depart, Arsenal will be working on another Hale End exit – Reiss Nelson.

Nelson has never really kicked on from being an exciting young talent.

Just as Nelson was breaking through to the Arsenal first team squad, a younger, more exciting player burst onto the scene – Bukayo Saka. Nelson quickly found himself unable to compete with his teammate, and his game time quickly became limited.

Nelson turns 25 this year. I would be surprised if anyone would offer the £20million Arsenal are reportedly demanding considering his lack of top level game time. Expect him to go on loan with an option to sign him for £20m in the future.

If he performs on-loan over the next 12 months, Arsenal will expect to bank that £20m. If he struggles, his value will plummet dramatically as he will only have a year left on his contract.

Eddie Nketiah to depart

The third Hale End youngster that is likely to depart this summer is Eddie Nketiah.

Like Nelson, Nketiah has never really kicked on from talented youngster. However, he has shown enough that he can do a job for a mid-lower top flight team in England, or abroad.

Nketiah’s price will be driven up due to the lack of strikers in world football right now. I would not be surprised to see him depart for more than what we sold Smith Rowe for.

Jakub Kiwior the loser in the Calafiori deal

A consequence of Calafiori’s recruitment is that it pushes Kiwior down one more in the pecking order.

At centre back, Arteta has Saliba, Gabriel, White, Calafiori, Timber, Tomiyasu and Kiwior as options, with Olexsandr Zinchenko and Kieran Tierney as additional left backs.

Kiwior at best is now 3rd choice in the left centreback position, and 6th choice left back. I would expect him to move to an Italian club soon. An example of signing someone (Calafiori) who is an upgrade on an existing squad plauer.

Kieran Tierney future a headache

Arsenal would have hoped that Tierney would have a solid loan spell with Real Sociedad that would result in someone coming in for him. Instead his injury issues continued.

3 separate injuries led him to start just 14 La Liga games in 2023/24, and yet another hamstring injury has led him to miss out on our pre-season tour to the USA.

At best, Arsenal will hope for a loan deal with an option to sign him in 12-months. I actually would not be surprised if we receive little to no interest for the Scotsman, and he remains at Arsenal until January not playing.

Aaron Ramsdale to remain? Or leave for Man City?

I am going to go out on a limb and predict that Aaron Ramsdale will remain at Arsenal.

Very few teams would be willing to pay what we want for Ramsdale, and with a contract through to 2027 (if we take up the year extension), we will be in no rush to sell him. The only way I can see him departing is on loan.

Keep an eye on Manchester City though – if Ederson does end up going to Saudi Arabia, they might decide to go for Ramsdale as a stop-gap ahead of scouting and recruiting a long term replacement for the Brazilian – think Claudio Bravo signing a year before Ederson.

A new attacker

Our incomings will be rounded off by one new attacker. It might be a striker. It might be a winger.

Kai Havertz finished last season in very good form. Any forward that comes in will need be a better option than Germany’s first choice striker.

Gabriel Jesus meanwhile has looked sharp in pre-season; could we go into 2024/25 with Havertz and Jesus a our two striker options?

Jesus also provides quality cover on both wings, which leaves Arteta with a choice make.

He signs someone better than Havertz, which relegates Jesus to 3rd choice striker, but also 2nd choice on both wings (behind Martinelli and Saka). Or he signs a top winger, and Jesus remains as Havertz’s cover and competition, further backed up by Martinelli, Trossard and the new winger if he can play in the middle.

My preference would be Nico Williams, who then becomes a starter on the left. There would be more than enough games for the Spaniard, Martinelli and Saka. Trossard then provides further cover.

That would leave us with Havertz and Jesus, backed up by those wide forwards that can play in the middle.

The only area were it is not clear what are plans are is in the forward positions.

It is not clear whether we will go for an out and out striker (or who?), or opt for a wider forward. Could it be Victor Oshmein? Viktor Gyökeres? Ivan Toney? Or perhaps Nico Williams? Or will end up with someone that we have not even been linked with yet?

The season does not start until 17 August, and the transfer window shuts at the end of the month. Still plenty of time for deals to be done.

Keenos

Mixed results for The Arsenal in America

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In the early hours of yesterday morning, our pre-season tour in the USofA came to an end with a 2-1 defeat to Liverpool.

Our results Stateside read: P3 W 1 D 1 L 1. A bit of a mixed bag. And as expected, there has been an overreaction by some to us losing a friendly to Liverpool.

I would think everyone was ugly enough and old enough by now to not get wound up by pre-season results. Surely we all understand that these games are about getting fitness into players legs?

Every manager has a different philosophy on friendlies, and Arteta’s is to play a 50/50 team, and then switch after 60 minutes. That means we see 50% senior pros, and 50% 2nd string / youngsters. Around the 60 minute mark, he then makes wholesale like for like changes.

Then in the next game, those that came off the bench tend to start, with those who started the last game tending to be on the bench. This can lead to disjointed performances. But these are all about fitness.

You also never know what training sessions teams have had. In the past sides have done full training sessions the morning of a pre-season game, whilst others might have treated it like a proper game and only done stretching and relaxation the day prior.

Some have raised their concerns over our loss to Liverpool and that it shows we are in desperate need for a new striker. But as is the usual with Arsenal for friendlies these days, we have not taken it easy in pre-season with all 3 games against Premier League opposition.

We could have taken it easy in pre-season. Played some random team from Scotland and a lower league English side before flying out to Japan and Korea to play against sides no-one knew existed 2 weeks ago. That could have led to a big load of stat padding for our youngsters and a false security that we were better than what we are.

Whenever people moan about our pre-season results, I always ask the same question: what were our results in 89, 91, 98, 02 and 04. The answer is always “I do not know” which highlights that no-one remembers pre-season.

My final thought on this before I crack o with work early so I can get to the pub: Manchester City have played 3 pre-season games so far. They have lost to Celtic. Lost to AC Milan. And drawn to Barcelona.

Worry about results when proper games begin. Not before.

Keenos

Arsenal better off without “greedy wonderkid”

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It is always sad to see a player making a move for money rather than for the betterment of their career. And this sadness deepens when it involves a young player who is clearly being badly advised by those that just see him as a commodity, a cash cow.

Details of the Chido Obi-Martin have emerged in the last day or so which paints a bad picture for both the former-Arsenal teenager and his advisors.

The deal on the table from the Arsenal was reportedly for £15,000 a week. This is the top end of what we pay our 16-year-olds when they sign their first professional contract with us. The majority of youngsters sign for a lot less.

This sort of money is usually offered to those young players who the club expect to be breaking into the first team squad before they reach 18. Think Bukayo Saka.

The offer highlights just how highly the club rated Obi-Martin. But Manchester United have blown us out of the water.

Reports are that Man U have doubled Arsenal’s offer – with Obi-Martin set to earn in the region of £30,000 a week. Over 2 years – the maximum length contract a 16-year-old can sign, that is the difference between earning north of £3m and earning “just” £1.5m.

The figures are not huge considering what Obi Martin may earn if he continues his progression, but for a teenager yet to play a game they are massive. The £3m on the table from Man U would mean that Obi Martin could retire at 18 and never work again!

Considering the situation at Man U right now, it is clear that Obi Martin and his people have valued money earned over the next two-years above what is best for his entire career.

To further illustrate the move is all about greed, Obi Martin’s representatives have reportedly demanded £1.7m commission to make the deal happened. This is not money that goes into the players pockets, but money that goes into his handlers.

And handlers is very much what Obi Martin has.

The Danish forward is not the first youngster to be moved from club to club to benefit those that control him, and he will not be the last. Football is littered with teenagers who were encouraged to move for the money, and then never fulfilled their potential.

Agents who have their clients best interest at heart will ensure any move is to a club that will develop the player, and help them reach their full potential. They will know the real riches in football are when your career progresses. They are not interested in making a quick buck off a 16-year-old.

We should not be surprised by Obi Martin and his representatives actions. We poached him as 14-year-old from his native Denmark.

Whilst a move from Kjøbenhavns Boldklub to Arsenal is likely to be for football reasons, I imagine we sweetened the deal with payments to friends, family and the player. The move to Man U is clearly solely based on finances.

And I would not be surprised if in 2-years history repeats itself once more.

As mentioned, a 16-year-old can only sign a 2-year contract. Most will usually then sign a 3-year deal at 17, taking them through to their 20th birthday, and then a 4-year deal at 18. This is the progression most young players go through at almost every top club.

I would put money on Obi Martin not signing a new deal with Man U when he turns 17, and instead in 2 -years he and his handlers will re-assess their options. His handlers will likely pimp him out across Europe again to see if they can get him more money. And at the same time bolster their pockets with more commission.

By losing the greedy wonderkid, Arsenal rid themselves of being in the exact same situation again in 12-months.

If a player at 16 only has money on his mind, or is being influenced by handlers who have no interest in their career, then we are better off without them. the names Nicolas Anelka and Paul Pogba come to mind.

Chido Obi Martin might go on to become one of the best in the world. The won that got away. But he is more likely to be the next Marcus McGuane.

Enjoy your Thursday.

Keenos