Author Archives: keenosafc

“Nothing less than £80m” for Arsenal trio

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Hale End graduates Emile Smith Rowe, Eddie Nketiah and Reiss Nelson are all surplus to requirements.

The other day I read a Tweet that was eye opening. It went along the lines of:

“The same fans that want us to give youth a chance are also those complaining we are yet to sign anyone of note. Do they not realise that the superstars they demand will be coming in above those players they want Arteta to give game time to.”

And that is exactly the situation Smith Rowe, Nketiah and Nelson are in.

Smith Rowe turns 24 soon and has only completed one full season in his senior career – 2 years ago in 2021/22.

During that year, he was exceptional, but injuries have taken their toll in the last two years and are now operating at a much higher level.

No longer a youngster with potential, injuries have been part of Smith Rowe’s career since his academy days. He reminds me a lot of Darren Anderton – plenty of talent but will never be able to stay fit. This is the summer for us to cash in.

Not only can Smith Rowe no longer be relied upon, he is also not the standard required for title challengers. For proof of this, the clubs interested in signing him are mid-table Premier League sides – Fulham, West Ham.

There has been plenty of talk around signing a new left winger and potentially someone to play in the left hand “8” position. The players we are being linked to in this position – Nico Williams, Eberechi Eze, Bruno Guimaraes – all are better than Smith Rowe.

Smith Rowe barely got a sniff last season as he found himself behind Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Jesus on the left wing, and Declan Rice and Kai Havertz more centrally. A new wideman or midfielder will push Smith Rowe down another position in the pecking order, and even less opportunities to play.

To move the team forward and turn us from title challengers to champions, we need to improve on what we have. And signing (for example) Nico Williams is clearly a step up from Smith Rowe. You simply can not demand more game time for Smith Rowe whilst also demanding we sign a player that is better than him!

Last season, only Nketiah got a sniff, but as the season went on his game time become more limited.

Unlike Smith Rowe, who some fans still hold a candle for, everyone is united in that last season should probably be Nketiah’s last.

He has done a decent job as a back up striker as we returned to the top 4 and then onto title challengers, but to make the next step up we need better.

That better is already in place in Kai Havertz.

Nketiah started the season as our 2nd choice striker, covering Gabriel Jesus. By the time we reached the business end of the season, Havertz had established himself as 1st choice, with Nketiah relegated to 3rd.

There is a debate to be had as to whether Havertz is the right man to lead the line in 2024/25. Any incoming striker needs to be better than the German. But where there is no debate is that Eddie is now no longer required.

With no new forward, Nketiah is 3rd choice. If someone comes in he will be 4th choice. Like Smith Rowe, this could be the last summer we can get a premium for Nketiah before his value begins to drop.

Finally with have Reiss Nelson.

Turning 25 in December, Nelson’s Arsenal career has never really ignited and he highlights just how tough the step up is from talented academy footballer to playing regular senior football for a top team.

There is a decent Premier League footballer in Nelson. But his level is Crystal Palace or West Ham. Not The Arsenal.

We go and sign a new striker, winger and midfielder this summer, then Nketiah, Nelson and Smith Rowe will all find themselves as one further down in the pecking order. They all struggled for game time in the second half of 2023/24. More, better players will just see them get even less chances.

And we are not in the position to be giving them chances. You do not play them ahead of a better player just because they came through the academy, or because you like them as a person. Title winning teams need to be clinical when it comes to giving squad players a shot.

Where Arsenal are in a strong position is all 3 have decent lengths on contracts, are not on huge money and can still play a role of a back-up dancer. We do not need to dump them for cheap. We can stay strong and demand a premium.

Nothing less than £80m is what I would want to see come in for the trio:

Emile Smith Rowe – £35-45m
Eddie Nketiah – £30-35m
Reiss Nelson – £15-20m

All 3 are home grown and talented. Being not good enough for The Arsenal does not mean they are not good enough for mid table teams.

You can certainly see the trio going to Fulham, West Ham or Crystal Palace and making a huge impact. And they are better than what those teams already have in their respective positions.

I expect all 3 to leave Arsenal this summer. But they will only leave if our valution is met.

Keenos

Ramsdale set for loan departure?

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Selling Aaron Ramsdale was never going to be easy.

The £40m asking price we have on his head would make him the 4th most expensive goalkeeper of all time – Andre Onana, Alisson Becker and Kepa Arrizabalaga the only 3 men to have cost more.

It is not that Ramsdale is not worth that amount. He is. It is more that the teams that would spunk £40m on a new keeper are not in the market for one.

Back in November, we discussed who Ramsdale’s next club could be. It was clear back then that there would be headaches for all parties.

Manchester City, Liverpool, Manchester United, Tottenham and Aston Villa all have established number ones and Ramsdale will not be looking to move somewhere to be second choice.

That then puts you in the mid-table area of Newcastle, Crystal Palace, West Ham, Wolves and Chelsea.

Newcastle always felt like a good fit for Ramsdale, but they have recently signed Odysseas Vlachodmios from Nottingham Forest and John Ruddy from Birmingham. The only way Eamsdale now joins it if Nick Pope departs.

As for the others beyond the Big 6, I can not see them splashing £40m on a goalkeeper.

For most Premier League teams, £40m is the max they look to spend on a single player. And those clubs that do have that much money on their back pocket will more likely spend it on an attacking player than a goalkeeper.

I would also question whether Ramsdale is a £40m improvement on Areola, Jose Sa or Sam Johnstone. And he certainly is not an upgrade on Jordan Pickford. So we are now between a rock and a hard place.

The clubs that can afford Ramsdale are not in the position to buy a keeper, and those clubs who he would improve are unlikely to spend big on a keeper.

“We need to lower the asking price” will then be the view of many. But Arsenal hold a lot of the cards in this transfer.

For a start, Mikel Arteta likes Ramsdale. He is cleary happy for the Englishman to remain at Arsenal as cover and competition for David Raya. We are in no rush to sell him.

And one big reason we are in no rush is due to the contract Ramsdale signed last year. That deal takes him through to 2026, which is basically 2027 as we have an option to extend for a year. With 3-years left on his deal, we can take our time waiting for the correct deal to come in.

Ramsdale could play up and push for a deal, but he does not seem that character. He will also now realise that if he wants to be guaranteed first choice, he would probably have to go to somewhere like Brentford or Brighton. Not exactly the bright lights of the Emirates are they! And both of those clubs would only be interested if they could get him cut price.

One option could be a loan deal.

As it stands, we have around £8m left in amortisation costs for Ramsdale’s transfer from Sheffield United. He is currently costing us £4m a year plus wages.

For this season, we might consider loaning him out with a £4m loan fee and 100% of his wages paid. That would mean that Ramsdale would it us a penny for the next 12 months, and we can still cash in on him next season.

Suddenly getting a keeper of Ramsdale’s quality for just £4m looks like a bargain, even if it is just for one season. There will be a scramble for him and Arsenal might even be able to get more than that!

The second option is Ramsdale stays for another year. That he accepts he is better off being 2nd choice at a big club like Arsenal than a starter playing for a team lower down the table.

Whilst this might lose him his place on the England squad under a new manager, it would mean that he doesn’t need to upheave his life having just become a father for the first time. And the option will still be there in a year to depart and regain his England place for the next World Cup.

The last option, and it is an outside bet, is that Arsenal use Ramsdale as a chip in any bid for Ivan Toney.

Outside of the £40m cost, Ramsdale and Brentford do feel like a good fit. The Bees just can’t afford him.

I can certainly see a scenario where Brentford buy Ramsdale for £40m, and we buy Ivan Toney for £60m. This sort of deal would get both teams players they want, and enable them to spread the fee out over their next 5-year accounts.

We then spend £20m on second choice keeper, which would basically mean that we get Toney and a back-up goalie for a net £40m. That does not feel like bad business.

My gut is we will loan Ramsdale out for the season.

Expect it to be for £4m fee, with an option to buy for £30-35m.

Enjoy your sunny Thursday.

Keenos

Departing Arsenal pair free up space for new signings

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Over the weekend we published our annual Arsenal – State of the Squad report. What was very clear and obvious is we needed players to depart to create the space for new players to come in.

As it stood on Saturday, and following David Raya’s acquisition, we had 26 senior players. One more than you can register with the Premier League.

Whilst we could have bought before we sold, this practice would leave us in a poor position when negotiating sales. The line coming from the club all summer was that players needed to depart before replacements come in. And this week we will begin seeing those departures.

Albert Sambi Lokonga‘s loan move to Sevilla was confirmed yesterday. The Spanish side are reportedly paying 100% of his wages. it is not yet clear whether Arsenal will receive a loan fee.

The deal contains a €12million buy option, with Arsenal also getting 25% of any future sale if the buy option is activated.

In the last 18 months, Lokonga’s stock has plummeted from bright, young European talent to struggling on loan at Crystal Palace and having an injury his season at Luton.

It does feel a little surprising that the deal is not permanent, for a bigger fee, taking into account how he performed for Luton Town when fit. But the you have to remember he was playing for Luton.

Lokonga turns 25 soon, so no longer has the “prospect” tag, and in 12 months will have just a year left on his contract.

Whilst we are not receiving a fee for him this summer, if the deal goes through next than we will be showing a small profit on what we have not yet amortised – Lokonga’s book value is around £7m, and the fee equates to around £10m.

The second who is out of the door is Nuno Tavares. The Portuguese left back is heading out on loan to Lazio with a mandatory buy clause of €9million. Like Lokonga, expect a sizeable sell-on clause to also be inserted.

Income from both loan deals turning permanent will hit the accounts in 2025. What is clear is that we are more interested in getting them out of the club, freeing up squad players, and receiving money later down the loan then getting a quick influx of cash this summer.

It never worked out at Arsenal for the pair, and the moves highlight why calls for us to “unearth gems like Brighton” does not work.

Every summer Brighton sign 8 or 10 Lokonga’s and Tavares’. They then give them ALL plenty of game time, with those not good enough disappearing into oblivion and those that show signs allowed to work through any issues and given the game time needed to improve.

Title chasing teams like Arsenal, Manchester City or Liverpool can not afford to do this. The pressure is much higher. As is what is at stake. Brighton only care about finishing mid-table, and developing players to sell on. We are chasing the title.

I am sure if Lokonga or Tavares had have joined Brighton, they would have progressed further in their career. And this would all be down to game time. But they also would have made the mistakes they made at Arsenal. And more of them. Whlst Brighton can afford to work through this, top teams can not.

The pair of the door means we are now down to a 24 man squad. It is only space fr one new registered player so expect more out of the door! And we are not short on players that could be heading for the exit:

Kieran Tierney
Thomas Partey
Aaron Ramsdale
Emile Smith Rowe
Eddie Nketiah
Reiss Nelson

Who departs next mainly depends on who is coming in. And those above will only be sold if a replacement is already lined up:

Ramsdale for a new number 2
Partey for a new midfielder
Smith Rowe for a new winger / forward
Nketiah for a new forward / winger

Nelson and Tierney are the only ones above that do not require replacing. They are probably also the two hardest to sell considering injuries / stagnation.

There is also talk about Roberto Calafiori being Arsenal’s first major new signing. I am still not clear whether he would be coming in to replace Jakub Kiwior, or if he will be our first choice left back next season.

On the former, we either believe Calafiori is a huge upgrade on Kiwior, or the Pole has expressed his intention to depart for first team football. If it is the late ri would be surprised as we have Jurrien Timber, Olexsandr Zinchenko and Takehiro Tomiyasu as options at left back.

It is a bit of a headache how Arteta would plan to fit them all in, especially when Ben White looks to have wrapped up right back. But we should not be scared of competition.

Signing Calafiori would give us the option of going: White Saliba Gabriel Zinchenko, with the Ukranian played inverted, or Timber Saliba Gabriel Calafiori, with the Dutchmen playing inverted and Calafiori playing Ben White’s role, but on the left hand side.

We would also retain the option of White, Kiwior, Calafiori, Timber and Tomiyasu as cover in central defence. And it is not too dissimilar in numbers and playing style of Manchester City:

Walker = White
Saliba = Stones
Dias = Gabriel
Gvardoil = Calafiori
Ake = Kiwior
Akanji = Tomiyasu
Lewis = Timber

The obvious missing one out of the above is Zinchenko. Maybe Arteta has plans to play him in that left hand sides 8, where Xhaka used to play?

Anyway, I have gone off course from Lokonga and Tavares leaving! I wish them both luck in the future careers.

Keenos