Author Archives: keenosafc

Arsenal – State of the Squad 2024/25

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This years State of the Squad repor comes a little later than normal.

Blame the Euro’s, bad weather and both my personal and work life being ultra busy right now (and one too many holidays)! My annual review always takes a day or so to research and right.

As with previous years, the yearly report will highlight exactly where the squad is ahead of the new season, taking into account home grown requirements to register players.

Normal rules apply:

• Clubs can register up to 25 senior players in their A list
• Of which no more than 17 can be “non-home grown (NHG)”
• To be considered home grown (HG), a player must have been registered to an English (or Welsh) clubs for 3 entire seasons before the season he turns 22
• Players born before 01/01/2003 do not need to be registered in the A list

The first thing that is very obvious is that in the current first team squad, we have no players aged under 01/01/2003. that means we have no “bonus” players that do not need to be registered.

What will be interesting as the summer goes on is if some current academy players are promoted to the first team, replacing senior players.

Personally, I am not too concerned about the lack of bonus players. Most top clubs tend to only use 22 or 23 players regularly regardless of whether they are registered are not. All this means for Arsenal is that our first team squad will all be aged over 21 for the first time in decades.

There are 26 players listed above. That means we are in a position where we need to sell before we can buy.

If we buy before we can sell, we are in the situation of a couple of years ago where we either have to dump players on the cheap, or have to leave them unregistered. Buying before we sell will leave us in a poor position to negotiate.

We are not short on players that could be heading for the exit:

Kieran Tierney
Nuno Tavares
Thomas Partey
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Aaron Ramsdale
Emile Smith Rowe
Eddie Nketiah
Reiss Nelson

I would not be surprised if all 8 of the above listed names depart. That would bring our squad size down to 18. Four new signings then take us back up to 22, with the rest of the squad being made up of the likes Ethan Nwaneri, Myles Lewis-Skelly and Chido Obi (who do not need to be registered).

We currently only have 15 NHG players. That means when it comes to incomings, we can sign at least two without infringing the 17 man NHG rule. Further NHG can come in Kieran Tierney, Nuno Tavares, Thomas Partey and Albert Sambi Lokonga.

I would expect at least 3 of those above to go, with Partey the only one that might remain. And if Partey does stay at the club, we are unlikely to sign a new midfielder.

If all 8 names mentioned above do depart, we then have 11 NHG players and 7 HG. for all intents and purposes, we could then 7 new players not from these shores and still be within the rules!

What is more likely is we buy one HG player (the back up keeper), and then the other 3 or 4 signings being either NHG or HG. We really have zero concerns in this area.

Where we are operating a bit different from previous years is we are in no rush to sell most of the potential outgoing players.

Mikel Arteta is likely happy with Nketiah as 3rd choice, Ramsdale as back up keeper, Smith Rowe as 4th choice on the wing and Partey as back-up DM. that means players will only depart if our valuation is met.

As for players coming in, it will be one in, one out:

A striker to replace Nketiah
A winger to replace Smith Rowe
A midfielder to replace Partey
A keeper to replace Ramsdale

The other 4 on the list (Tierney, Tavares, Lokonga, Nelson) contributed so little last year so do not need replacing.

Enjoy your Saturday!

Keenos

Could Arteta sacrifice new striker to sign breakout Euro winger?

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Going into this transfer window, most of us agreed that a striker was tp of the list.

Despite us scoring more league goals last season than any other in our history, the feeling was we needed someone more clinical if we wanted to take the next jump from challengers to champions.

The issue, however, remains that there are not many top strikers in world football right now. And those that are potentially available are over priced having achieved little, and I question whether they would actually be an upgrade on Kai Havertz.

This is not the 00s where it felt like top strikers were going on trees (Henry, Shevchenko, Ronaldo, Del Perio, Inzaghi, Owen, Shearer, Rooney, Eto’o, Raul, Ronaldinho, Rivaldo, Trezequet, Anelka and more!). The lack of top strikers is highlighted by the list of names that led the line for their countries in the last 8 of the Euros:

Spain – Alvaro Morata
Germany – Kai Havertz
Portgual – Cristiano Ronaldo
France – Randal Kolo Muani
Netherlands – Memphis Depay
Turkey – Arda Guller
England – Harry Kane
Switzerland – Breel Embolo

If you take Harry Kane out of the equation (who has looked shot this summer), iwould not take any of the other 6 names ahead of Kai Havertz. And it is the same in the Copa America:

Argentina – Lautaro Martinez
Ecuador – Enner Valencia
Venezuela – Salamon Rondon
Canada – Cyle Larin
Columbia – Jhon Cordoba
Panama – Edgar Barcenas
Uruguay – Darwin Nunez
Brazil – Endrick

Half of the Copa America list are journeymen footballers, whilst the likes of Nunez and Endrick are unobtainable. Lautaro Martinez is a player I have always admired, but we are unlikely to persuade him to leave Inter Milan, whom he is a cult hero and will eventually be bestowed with legend status.

I appreciate that there are options outside the 16 nations who have made the quarter finals in the 2 only relevant contental tournaments.

Serhou Guirassy, Artem Dovbyk, Loïs Openda, Alexander Sorloth and Alexander Isak were the men to make up the top 10 of the European Golden Shoe in 2023/24.

Guirassy, Dovbyk and Sorloth are all journeymen strikers in their late 20s who have just had their first decent season in a top European league. We should not be looking at any of them. Loïs Openda is clearly a talent and will be on the shortlist, whilst Newcastle are unlikely to part ways with Isak.

We have long been linked with the likes of Victor Osimhen, Benjamin Sesko, Viktor Gyokeres and Ivan Toney. But all of them have been crossed out (on my list at least):

Osimhen (injury concerns)
Sesko (new contract)
Gyokeres (over priced)
Toney (Personality concerns)

Instead of looking to invest heavily in a new forward, an option could be to stick with Havertz. Playing as a striker in the 2nd half of the season, Germany’s first choice forward grabbed himself 8 goals and 7 assists in 13 games. Were he not already at Arsenal, Kai would be someone fans would be calling for us to sign.

Rather than a forward, we could look to add to the “forward line”, and that means buying a wide forward. And there is one man on everyone’s lips right now: Nico Williams.

I have long been a Nico Williams fan. He looks to have it all – power, pace, trickery and technique. At this Euro’s, the rest of the world have begun to realise just how good he is.

Yes, his goals to games is not particularly great right now, but he is still just 21. These will naturally improve as his career progresses and by playing in a more attacking team.

Williams on the left, Havertz in the middle and Saka on the right would be devastating. they would then be backed up by Gabriel Martinelli, Gabriel Jesus and Leandro Trossard.

For those that might say “harsh on Martinelli”, we will be playing 50+ games next season as we look to compete on all fronts. We should not be scared of having Saka, Williams and Martinelli competing for wide positions, further backed up by Trossard and Jesus.

Signing Williams also would not mean I do not want us to sign a striker. It might just mean we go for someone to back up and compete with Havertz rather than start ahead of them (if finances work, we might still be able to go for Williams and a top striker).

In the last few days, links with Dortmund striker Karim Adeyemi have intensified. The fee being mooted is €30m.

Adeyemi was once one of the hottest young strikers, but he has not really kicked on to that World Class level. He is, however, just 22.

The German striker come winger reminds me a lot of Isak in both the way he plays and the feeling he could jump to the next level. I could certainly see us accommodating Adeyemi as cover and competition for both Havertz and Jesus.

Ultimately, the question is if we can not fund both buying Nico Wiliams and a top striker, which option would you rather?

Keenos

The silver lining of redundancy

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This morning is one of those mornings that makes me grateful for being made redundant 3 years ago.

I had worked for the same company for 15-years. My only real job from leaving university. I had spent the time firstly commuting from Walthamstow to Croydon, and then to Twickenham. 2017 I moved to Loughton and my commute was literally the width of London!

I would be up at 5am, on the train at 5:15 and in the office for 6:45. I would eventually walk back through my door at around 7pm. Looking back, it is crazy just how much time I spent commuting.

When I was told my job would be up for redundancy (my face no longer fit!), I was of course apprehensive. But once I had thought it through I did not fear it.

The equivalent of 7 months salary was on the table, and paid in lieu. That meant no notice period, no gardening leave. I could basically start a job the next day.

Within a week I had accepted a new job, but took the decision to not start until the new year (we were in the back end of October). 12 weeks of chilling and my first Christmas off in my working life (bar when I visited Thailand and Australia over Christmas).

The new company was brilliant, but the chance made me realise I had fallen out of love with recruitment. After 16-years in the industry I decided to look into a new career.

I now write this blog from my garden, enjoying the Essex sunshine. I work from home. Shorter hours, less stress, and earning 25% more. I do not have to be logged on until 9am!

Had it not been for redundancy, I would have had to get up at 5am this morning, hungover, probably still pissed actually! Jump on the Central Line and commute in a boiling hot sardine tin. Battle through a 10 hour day before making the same commute back home.

Working from home is not always great. You can get lonely. I miss the office banter and buzz of winning a deal. But overall my mental health is a lot better.

This year alone I have been to Cairo, Sharm, Munich, Dubrovnik, Riga and Slovenia. I have Malta in October for my 40th and then Prague for Christmas. I would not have done any of these if I were not made redundant.

Last nights England victory deserved a good drink up at the final whistle.

I am not always a huge England fan – I actually prefer our national team playing rugby and cricket. But football does things to our great nation. It brings it together. And it was impossible not to get caught up in last nights celebrations in the pub.

Gareth Southgate is still an average manager in charge of World Class players, and England are in the final despite him, not due to him. But we now back on the boys on Sunday.

And if it all goes well, on Monday morning I will once more be grateful for being redundant.

Never fear change. See redundancy as an opportunity. Back yourself and your ability. Use it as a chance to change your path in life.

Have a great Thursday!

Keenos