Author Archives: keenosafc

Ignore the “PSR 4”

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Another transfer window, and the so called PSR 4 are at it again. Chelsea, Aston Villa, Newcastle and Nottingham forest. All doing these strange little deals with each other, summer after summer.

Whilst fans of some of the clubs look at England’s 6 biggest clubs and cry “cartel”, the PSR 4 have shown time and again over recent windows that they are in bed with each other, overpaying for average players to move money about and satisfy accountants.

Their fans “celebrate” selling and buying players at hugely inflated sums like it is a trophy. But the truth is they have all gone backwards since they begun this game.

At the centre of the PSR 4 is Chelsea. Now without a major trophy in 4 seasons, they have finished 12th, 6th, 4th and 10th since they began playing financial games.

Chelsea are now in a spiral where they need to keep doing these questionable deals to keep the business running. It could all quite quickly collapse around them and in 12-months they could be in serious financial trouble.

Whilst their fans “celebrate” these new players, Chelsea’s business these days basically involves them having to buy players they do not really want to sign and selling players they do not really want to sell. Each transfer window, they buy and sell more, giving those fans a new signing endorphin hit. But every summer their squad, their team, gets worse.

Aston Villa fans are amongst the biggest cry babies in football. Their owners have refused to invest in the infrastructure of the club, which would have led to increasing revenues. Instead, they opted to overspend on wages which left them close to spending more on players salaries than they generated in income. Whilst their fans cried that “our owners can not invest what they want”, they failed to recognise that their owners have no interest in investing. If they did, stadium enhancements (which sit outside financial rules) would have already happened.

If have lost count how many dodgy deals Villa have done. And selling Morgan Rogers and gaining Alejandro Garnacho and Nicolas Jackson sums them up.

They basically sold a player they did not went to sell, for a higher fee than they would have likely accepted. Fair enough. But to make the deal happen they have signed two players they do not really want. And the result will be they have also overspent, and their fans will be crying about how it is all unfair. It is their owners choice the route they went down when spending money.

Aston Villa may have seen some success, and risen to 4th in the league, but their financial dealings is now catching up on them. They have lost 4 key players this summer in Rogers, Ezri Konsa, Youri Tielemans and Lucas Digne. Emi Martinez and Ollie Watkins could also be out of the door. Their slide down the table is inevitable and these silly little deals with Chelsea, etc will not save them

As for Newcastle fans, they are only slightly less annoying that Villa fans.

They cry about “having to sell Eliot Anderson due to PSR”, but ignore that around the same time they recruited Joe Willock, Bruno Guimaraes and Sandro Tonali. Maybe they should have developed their own rather than trying to just buy their way to the top.

The Newcastle project peaked in 2024/25 when they won the League Cup and finished 5th. Last season they slide to 12th and this year it looks no better. Whilst their fans celebrate “getting one over the Premier League” by being involved in PSR 4 deals, their squad continues to get weaker.

Finally Nottingham Forest. Just signed Liam Delap for huge money. I would not be surprised if Morgan Gibbs White now goes the other way. From 7th to 16th, I now have money on them to go down this season. Each time they did one of these questionable deals, they sold better players and recruited worse – just like all of the PSR 4.

Whilst fans of Chelsea, Villa, Newcastle and Forest celebrate these deals, it will eventually come to bite them on the arse. They are simply moving debt around, and not resolving their underlying financial issues. This summer, none of them have improved their squads despite huge spending. I think at least one of them will go down. And that is a victory for common sense spending over what these guys are doing.

Compare to the likes of Brighton and Brentford. Well run clubs who are both in Europe this season. You never hear their fans moan about financial unfair play or do these hugely inflated swap deals to increase revenue. They just got on with running good businesses. And they will be a success for it.

What I would say is let the PSR 4 have them transfer window endorphin hit. Ultimately, they are all becoming weaker through this alliance and things will only get worse. Their fans though will keep celebrating their transfer business because it is all about spending big in their heads, not caring who they actually sign.

Keenos

Julian Alvarez, Kenan Yildiz, Gabriel Martinelli and more…

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Julian Alvarez

I have always wanted us to go nowhere near Julian Alvarez. For me he is just Gabriel Jesus MK II.

Like Jesus, Alvarez’s best performances for Manchester City came when he was 2nd choice striker. At no point did he break through and become their first choice. He is also not an out and out striker. More a utility man who can play in all attacking levels, but will struggle when playing week in, week out as the first chocie striker.

He is no Sergio Aguero, and he would struggle in the Premier League when playing up top alone.

Julian Alvarez turns 27 during this season. In his 4 seasons in Europe (and that is all it has been), he has basically had one decent league campaign – 2025/26. 45 league goals in 134 games is not exactly the sign of a £150m man.

Huge money for someone in their mid-late twenties and is still fairly “unproven” over a consistent period. Again, it reminds me of Jesus. For the way we play, Viktor Gyokeres and Kai Havertz are better suited. Hope we stay well away.

Kenan Yildiz

I have long been a fan of the German-born Turkish international. But I think ultimately a move for him will be one season too soon.

Many, including myself, saw him as a long term option on the left wing. But I actually now think he is better suited elsewhere. I would not be surprised if we go in the for Juventus man next season, with the plan to replace Martin Odegaard with him.

Odegaard will have 1-year left on his deal in 12 months, and will be a few months shy of his 29th birthday. It might become a Gabriel Martinelli situation where we do not really want to offer him another big 5 year deal. The solution may be Odegaard is sold (and possibly to Juventus) and Yildiz replaces him.

If a late move for Yildiz does happen this summer, my gut is it would be as a short-term left winger, and long-term to replace Odegaard.

Gabriel Martinelli

I am gutted he is going, but the truth is it is the best move for all involved.

It has been a delight to watch Gabi grow from boy to man. He is clearly a nice young man and has bundles of talent. But he just is not what Arsenal need anymore.

His struggles against the low blocks Arsenal face is well documented. For me he is the same level as the likes of Anthony Gordon and Bradley Barcola. He would excel at someone like Newcastle United or Aston Villa, who play more counter attacking football.

If Gabi still had 3 years left on his contract, I do not think we would be in a rush to sell. But with 1-year left, it is either sell or offer him a new deal. And he just is not worth a new deal on his current terms.

A move to Saudi may seem like a backwards step, but the reality is there is no one in Europe willing to match his £180k a week wages right now. Depart, secure the bag for a year or two, and then consider returning to Europe on a lower salary. I can certainly see him popping up at Juventus or Inter Milan at some point in the next 24 months.

Good luck Gabi. You have been a brilliant servant to the club. But we have know outgrown your talent.

Reiss Nelson, Fabio Vieira and Gabriel Jesus

It is crazy that we are here, towards the end of another window, and these 3 are still here (at the time of writing).

Now we are not the only club that has struggled to sell players (Kalvin Phillips is still a Man City player, as is Jack Grealish). But, especially in Reiss Nelson’s case, we need to really think about giving out 5-year contracts to 21-year-olds who have not really done it.

There was a right time to sell both Nelson and Ainsley Maitland-Niles. And that was about 5-years ago. We probably would have bought in a combined £50m+ for them. Instead we gave them long deals, did not play them, and their transfer value plummeted. I think this is a big reason as to why we are where we are with Ethan Nwaneri. We simply can not turn down that big money for academy products who we are 50/50 on whether they will make it.

Fabio Vieira excited me when we signed him, but it never quite worked out. He had a good season at Hamburg last season and I am surprised no one else is really in for him. A curious one.

As for Jesus, he was signed to do a job. He did that job. Injury cost him his Arsenal career. I honestly wish him a lot of luck in the future and thank him for helping to transform the mentality of Arsenal.

The window will close on Tuesday 1 September at 23:00. Will we see another Mesut Ozil surprise in these closing days?

Keenos

Arteta’s Arsenal enter “WIN NOW” phase

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Throughout his reign at Arsenal, Mikel Arteta has been mocked from all corners for “phases”.

“What phase are Arsenal in now?” was constantly seen on social media and discussed live on air in the TalkSport and Sky studios. I always found the criticism of someone having a plan laughable.

Anyone that has ever ran a business will know that to be a success, and continually grow that business, you need a plan. A strategy. And that plan will involve breaking down each phase of your growth. Where you want to be in a year, in 2 years, in 5 years. Businesses without a plan usually fail as they are reactive, unprepared, and without direction.

Like Mikel Arteta, I have always been a meticulous planner. I have my life planned out (from a financial aspect), with the common goal of retiring at 57. But you do not get to reitre at 57 if you do not begin planning early.

The first phase of my life was buying my first flat. I did that in 2008 at 24. In 2017 I upgraded from flat to house, using the equity in my property to go from a 1 bed in Walthamstow to a 3 bed in Loughton. The next phase was to pay off my mortgage early. The aim was to always have the mortgage paid off before I turned 50. I have less than 11 months left on it and will have it paid off at 43.

All this planning will ensure that come 57, I have hit my saving and pension goals and can retire with (hopefully) a million in the bank. That will enable me to live off the interest (S&P500 tracker), my early pension, and any passive income my numerous side hustles may generate.

I have never been a greedy man. I have always been someone who wants to earn to retire early and enjoy life, free of financial restrictions, before I get too old and the knees start going.

Circling back, I have always found the criticism of Arteta’s planning confusion. My only conclusion is those criticising have no idea how to plan, about targeting, and are just drifting through life with no real goal. They will reach 60, look at their pension pot and realise it is non existent. A life of gear up the nose, booze down the throat, and making bookmakers rich. They then end up working into their 70s, complaining about the state, about immigrants, and so on. Everyone else’s fault except their own that they can not retire. When in reality they did not plan for retirement.

Arteta’s plan for Arsenal was always clear to me.

The first phase was to get us back into the top 4. Champions League football and all it brings. Then it was to make us consistent title challengers. These two phases kind of merged into one following our 2022/23 overachievement.

After stabilising the club as title challengers, Phase 3 was to turn us into champions. The big money signings of the likes of Declan Rice was always aimed at taking us to that next level. The final phase was our “WIN NOW” phase.

We would be Champions. A squad of top, top players. All we would have to do in this phase is minor tweaks to the team. Sign “oven ready” players who could come in and perform from day one at a Premier League champions level. And that is exactly where the likes of Bruno Guimaraes and Ezri Konsa fit in.

Sir Alex Ferguson excelled in the “WIN NOW” phase. Beyond 1995 and the infamous “You can’t win anything with kids” Alan Hanson quote, Ferguson never really completely revolutionized the Manchester United squad. It was always just tweaks here and there. A couple of new top signings a season that would keep Manchester United at the top of the table. And it worked with great success.

Fergie did not care that signing the Michael Carrick, Dimitar Berbatov, Robin van Persie and others would have zero sell on fees. These were all signed to WIN NOW. Not with the aim of winning at some point in the future.

A little over 12-months ago, Liverpool won the league. Arnie Slott then completely ripped up Jurgen Klopp’s settled side and spent over £400m on the likes of Alexander Isak, Florian Wirtz, Jeremie Frimpong, Milos Kerkez and Hugo Ekitike. It was revolution rather than evolution. The result was they finished 5th.

Through Arteta’s planning, he knew that once he got us to Champions he would not need to rip up the squad. Rice, Martin Zubimendi, Gabriel, William Saliba, Kai Havertz, Bukayo Saka et al would all be made to late 20s. They would all have at least 5 or 6 more years in their legs at the highest level. So he knew he would not have to do too much “future planning”. He could maintain the level by buying Bruno and Konsa, regardless of them being 28 and 29 respectively. It is all about winning now.

That is not to say that Arteta will not have a little side eye on the future.

He will know he has the likes of Myles Lewis Skelly, who is still only 19, Cristhian Mosquera at 22, Piero Hincape and Riccardo Calafiori at 24. these guys are the future, but also more than good enough for the present. Saka is also just 24. As is new boy Christos Tzolis and Noni Madueke. then you have the likes of Max Dowman, Tommy Setford, Marli Salmon. This is the next generation.

If the WIN NOW is a success, you never really need to worry too much about building for the future. Each year you just make a couple of tweaks. Either some youngsters progress to become first team regulars, or you make a couple of top signings who can make that impact immediately. You will be bringing in enough revenue from being the best in the league that you no longer need to “buy to sell”. You could literally sign players for 5-years, let them leave once past their best, and rinse and repeat.

This Arsenal team has one goal and one goal only. To WIN NOW. And fans will need to adapt to this new phase. Stop worrying about the age of signings, about their sell on value. Only concern yourselves as to whether they can help their new team mates WIN NOW. And if they do that, it does not really matter if they are 22 or 28 when they join.

At some point, Manchester City owners will start pumping in again, attempting to buy the league. Or Manchester United will sort themselves out. Or Liverpool, Tottenham or Chelsea will stumble across another Jurgen Klopp of Mikel Arteta who will build them a title winning squad. We do not want to be a Liverpool who grafted hard to get to the top and then have thrown it all away by building a whole new squad.

It is essential that Arsenal and Arteta take advantage of the landscape ahead of them now. This is our time.

Keenos