It is bloody cold outside! And it is only going to get colder.
Just seen that by the middle of next week, overnight temperatures in London could reach as low at -4°C. If you have not already done so, I would fully suggest ordering yourself an Arsenal fleece blanket from our friends over at Kick Off Merchants.
The Arsenal players are currently out in Dubai on the winter break. This has led to some criticism as to “why are the players on holiday having won 1 in 7. They should be being flogged on the training ground”.
This from the same people that continually moan players are being overplayed and need a break.
The players will be doing some warm weather training out in Dubai. The warmer weather will allow them to partake in longer sessions than they do in the UK, and in a bit more of a relaxed atmosphere.
Training is not a 9-5 job. The players usually do a couple of hours on the training ground, then some gym work for any hour, and then they are done. They will then have lunch and the rest of the day is free for their own. Some players will do extra work in the afternoon – work one to one with a coach or specialist strength and conditioning work. Others will go to the gold course. Bukayo Saka has decided to have a Fanta in the sun.
There is some Arsenal transfer gossip floating about, as there always will be at this time of year.
We have been linked with Getafe striker Borja Mayoral (no idea!), whilst also linked with right backs Jeremie Frimpong and Sacha Boey (again). I am surprised we have not yet been linked with Wilf Zaha who reportedly wants away from Galatasaray.
As always, I would advise ignoring the speculation. Do not get too attached a deals that are probably non-existent.
We are in the market for players in January, and have no financial restrictions. But we are only in the market for the right players – not stop gap signings.
Edu and Mikel Arteta have already previously shown that they will not sign short term in January, preferring to wait for their main targets in the summer. Remember, every penny we spend in January on someone who is not a main target is a penny less we have to spend at another time on our main target.
Personally, I would rather not spend £25m on Borja Mayoral if we are targetting Dusan Vlahovic, Victor Osimhen or Ivan Toney in the summer. It would just be £25m down the drain.
Then again, if Borja Mayoral is a main target and we have no interest in the trio mentioned above, we should move for him in January if the price is right.
Also, do not be concerned that others (Spurs) are doing business.
My starting point when reviewing business (or lack of) is “has someone else yet bought a player I would want”. And I certainly would not want Timo Werner (his legs are gone) or Radu Dragusin. If we wanted either, they would be Arsenal players.
We have our own targets, as don Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and others. It is important that we focus on our own business and do not get upset or influenced by others doing business around us.
As a side note, the new Romanian lad Spurs are buying takes Ange Postecoglou’s spending this year to close to £240m. Interesting how the Spurs fans and the media claim “failure to win the league this season will be failure for Arsenal after what Mikel Arteta has spent” yet Big Ange has spent more (Arsenal have spent £200m).
Keep wrapped up, stay warm, and do not get too jealous of Saka lounging in the sun. I am sure we would all rather be where he is right now.
Before you comment, I fully understand that 1 win in the last 7 games is not good enough. But I also do not think Arsenal are the broken machine that many claim, nor do I believe Mikel Arteta has been “found out”.
Top managers and coaches (and Arteta is a top one), look beyond the score line when analysing games. They focus on the data behind the performance, not just the result.
They will not be too concerned if a dominating performance leads to defeat with the opponents scoring from their only 2 shots on target. They will understand that these things happen in football.
Likewise, a top coach will not get over excited if they nick the win against their opponents in a game where they were dominated and scored with their only shot. They will realise that, despite the result, there is plenty of work to be done and the victory papers over the issues.
They will make changes in tactics and personnel based on the performances rather than the results – and for most teams it will take more than just a handful of poor performances to make those changes; especially when those poor performances are put into context against maybe a years worth of brilliant performances.
A poor coach, meanwhile, will only care about the results.
They will celebrate nicking a win when they performed poorly like they have won the league. Two or three nicked wins in a row and they will think that their management, tactics and decisions are spot on. But eventually they will begin to get the poor results their performances deserved and they will wonder where it has all gone.
A poor coach will also overreact to a good performance that leads to a poor result. “Tinkering” with tactics and personnel. They will ignore the good work that has possibly happened in previous months, and during the game they lost themselves, and make wholesale changes off the back of that result. This will usually lead to a worsening of performances and a futher dip in form.
I am very calm about where Arsenal currently are. Yes, I am dissapointed that we have dropped from 1st to 4th in a handful of games and out the FA Cup. But I also do not think we are in as bad a place as many make out. The reality is our performances are not as poor as many are making out.
Aston Villa (a) – 1-0 defeat
A very tight game between two of the best teams in the Premier League. Aston Villa were 14 games unbeaten at home, their last defeat against Arsenal.
An even game where clear cut chances were limited, both Aston Villa and Arsenal scored with their best chances of the game. The only difference was Arsenal’s was incorrectly disallowed.
Last seasons game was not too different. A tight game where Arsenal needed a freak own goal from Emiliano Martinez in the 93rd minute to win. Gabriel Martinelli then ran clear to make it 4-2.
This is certainly one of those games that could have gone either way. Last year it went to us, this year to Villa. Probably a sign of their improvement.
PSV Eindhoven (a) – 1-1
A much changed Arsenal team went to Eindhoven and came away with a draw against a team that were unbeaten at home.
A starting XI containing Cedric, Kiwor, Jorginho, Elneny, Nketiah and Nelson. Was a very good performance despite our weakened team.
Brighton (h) – 2-0 win
We got the comfortable result our good performance deserved against a decent, well organised Brighton team.
Liverpool (a) – 1-1
Tight away game. Both teams played well. Both teams could have won it. 1-1 draw a fair result.
West Ham United (h) – 2-0 defeat
A defeat that hurt, and one which coming out of the ground felt like a poor performance. but upon reflection and when re-watching the game, we actually played really well.
It was a real dominating performance as Arsenal had 74% of the possession and 30 shots. Meanwhile West Ham had just 2 shots on target from open play, scoring with them both.
Our performance should have seen us score 3 or 4 goals, whilst West Ham’s opener should have been ruled out as the ball went out of play.
This game was the perfect example of what I describe as “good manager / poor manager”.
Mikel Arteta knew his team played well but did not get the result he wanted. David Moyes celebrated the result, but failed to look beyond that at his teams poor performance.
Fulham (a) – 2-1 defeat
Probably our worst performance of the season.
It was actually a tight game and it could have finished 2-1 in either direction as both sides had a similar level of clear cut chances. Title winning teams win 2-1 off that identical performance. also-rans lose 2-1.
Liverpool (h) – 2-0 defeat
A game that sums Arsenal up during this tough period.
Conceding goals despite limiting opponents to very few chances. Not scoring goals despite creating plenty of chances.
The xG on this one (if you like that stat) was 1.85 – 0.85. It is a fair reflection on the chances created by both teams – and it took an OG for Liverpool to take the lead.
Arsenal played really well in the game and can feel unlucky to be out of the cup.
I would be more worried right now were we on the run we are currently on and:
a) we were conceding a lot of chances and b) we were not making any chances
The fact is, in every game across the last 7 we have limited our opponents to very few chances, and made plenty ourselves.
Modern managers to put a lot of weight on expected goals (xG) to help evaluate performances.
Now I understand that this statistic is very controversial amongst fans, with many not liking it and feeling like it justifies defeats. But as above, good coaches ignore results and look at permornaces. And xG is a good statstics to help evaluate a performance (alongside other stats).
In our last 7 games, we have had an xG of 13.45 (as in we should have scored 13 or 14 goals). Our xG against was 7.34 (should have conceded between 7 and 8 goals).
Our real results has seen us concede 9 and score 5. This shows that the performances are 85% there. We just need to finish the chances we are creating. And likewise, the xG conceded will soon result in us keeping clean sheets rather than conceding with just 1 or 2 chances againsts
On another day (and all that), we really could have won 7 in a row. Our performances have not been as bad as the results make out.
We are unlikely to win the league title this year, and we are out of the FA Cup and League Cup. I get everyone’s disappointment and frustration. But the truth is we are just not getting the results our performances deserve right now.
Making huge changes (from tactics and playing personnel to sacking the manager), will unlikely change our performances, because they are at a high level.
A new striker (to finish those chances), the bounce of the ball, and some decisions going our way and we will quickly see the tide change. And with Momentum being such a big thing, we only need a couple of wins to go our way and suddenly all these close games that we are losing, we will be winning. And probably comfortably.
Learn not to overreact to everything good and bad. Teach yourself to be more balanced. And you will find yourself being much better at evaluating a situation (both in football and real life!).
The winter break has probably come at a good time for The arsenal. Give Arteta to rebuild the troops confidence and moral without a game every 3 days.
A few years ago I ewas not in a great place. I quickly worked out that my mental health was being affected by the negativity around football and fuelled by social media. As a result, I deleted all my social media accounts and actively stopped listening to those who projected their negativity onto others.
The result was I bought a new house, began a new career and started my own company. I am in a much happier place now than I was in 2017.
I tell this short story because I see others heading towards the same place that I was in (I am now back online due to the social media needed for my company).
After a brilliant 12 months, Arsenal are going through a rough patch. And like rats at night, some fans have grabbed on to this and using our poor wrong to project their negativity once more.
There are two sides of this that I see.
The first is those that are very unhappy in their personal lives. They then use social media to project their negativity onto you. Instead of trying to bring themselves up, they try and drag you down.
Instead of dealing with their own issues, and self-reflecting on what is causing them, they attempt to justify them by making others like them. “It is not me, it is society” is how they think.
It is not just in Arsenal or football you see these people, it is throughout the world on all topics. Their negativity is not actually aimed at whatever company (or individual) they spend hours a day trying to bring down, they are aimed at themselves.
Then you have the attention seekers. Those that realised that negativity sells.
These folk have created a fake negative persona for hits, RTs, impressions and views. Many try to monitise it.
What they then try and do is lead those in the first group who do have that negativity mindset. They become the leader of this group, almost cult like. This then become negativity on steroids as they create the network and echo chamber for those around them to feed off, and the negativity grows amongst them, becomes more aggressive and more extreme.
These folk are basically spreading negativity to try and make money or for attention. But what they are doing is damaging their own mental health.
We have seen before with many a YouTuber and blogger that they begin by showing fake outrage, the attention they gain from this persona is like a drug and their postings become more frequent and extreme.
The issue for them is at some point they cross the line and their fake persona becomes their real one. They entire the pit of depair. They have voluntarily decided to damage their own mental health and a few quid from Elon Musk.
Back to Arsenal, what is interesting (in my opinion), is that in our darkest days, the club was actually a less negative place.
Many of those who spew their negative garbage had stopped going in the last year or so of Arsene Wenger. They no longer wanted to spend their hard earned money. Their places were taken, post-Covid, by fans who were just happy to be there. Who would support the club win, lose or draw.
Then last season, after the first 6 months, these folk began showing an interest in football again. Began to get tickets and frequent message boards that they had not been seen on for years.
They turned their backs on the club during our dark times and as soon as we had an upturn in fortunes, they scuttled back from under their rocks.
12-months on and the atmosphere at the club is back to how it was in 2017.
To start with, I pointed out 6 months ago that a big reason why Arsenal had a ticket crisis at the moment was because of our upturn in form. This saw more demand from those fans who are only interested in going when times are good. There was no problems getting tickets when we were 6th or 7th in the league, not selling out in the Europa League.
Then we go on the little poor run we are now in. It happens in football. anyone who has followed their club through thick and thin for decades will know the ups and downs. But due to the return of the boo boys in our good times, the ground is back to the toxicity of the bad times.
I am seeing fans on message boards, in WhatsApp groups reappear and spread their brand of negativity. They said in 2017 that they had not interest in Arsenal anymore and would not be back. They returned in 2023. And now in 2024 they are saying once more that they are turning their back on the club.
These people are not supporters. They just want to jump in and out of supporting depending on whether we are good or bad. And they will also use any opportunity to deflect the negative aspects of their own life onto others.
I said decades ago on a forum that I would love Arsenal to get relegated. It was said facetiously as I would never want that to happen. But my thinking was by getting relegated, you would shake off all the casual fans, the day trippers, those only interested in the good times. Arsenal would be a much better, more positive place, without these.
For those that do not believe me, keep an eye on Aston Villa.
It was not too long ago that Villa got relegated. They recently accounced that they were reviewing their away ticketing policy to ensure that is was not a ‘closed shop’. Sound familiar?
The result will be those 3-4,000 who have been home and away in the good and bad times will be diluted by fans who only want to turn up in the good times. And as soon as the tide turns at Villa Park (and it will), those fans boos will be heard loudly.
Those casuals will then stop turning up, leaving the loyal “through thick and thin” fans to pick up the pieces. And of course, next time Villa have an upwards turn of form they will be back again!
I will finish off by reminding fans to not let the 90s minutes get in the way of the football.
Pre-social media it used to be easy – lose a game, go pub, talk it out, conversation moves on. But with social media, and those using to exploit it and spread their negativity, it can feel like you are in a dark place 24/7.
Put the phone down, get some fresh air, and block those who deflect their negativity onto others all day, every day, and especially those that try to monitise depression.
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