Category Archives: Arsenal

Arsenal legend and 5 more stars give Jurrien Timber hope of full recovery from ACL injury

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It is now confirmed that Jurrien Timber has suffered a major ACL injury.

Whilst this might rule him out for the 2023/24 season, an ACL injury is no longer career ending. Many a player has returned from the injury to reach the pinnacle of the game.

Robert Pires

In 2002, Robert Pires won the Football Writers Player of the Year award, despite his season being curtailed in March due to an ACL injury.

Considered one of the most inform form players in World Football at the time of his injury, he sidelined for more than six months and missed out on the chance to play fir his country at the 2002 World Cup

Despite missing a third of the 2002/03 season with the injury, Pires would bag himself 14 league goals – the most in his career at that point.

In 2003/04, Pires would be a key component of Arsenal’s invincible winning team, scoring 19 goals in all competitions, a career high. The year after he would grab himself another 17 goals.

In the 4-years after his injury, Pires would average a goal every 2.7 games. In the 4-seasons before his injury, he was averaging a goal every 5.1 games.

Xavi

The best example of overcoming a major ACL injury and continuing to excel is arguably Xavi.

Xavi suffered an ACL injury in December 2005, necessitating surgery, and faced being left out of Spain’s World Cup squad the following year.

He returned quickly after only five months out and played his part to help Barcelona win La Liga. He was also selected forn the Spain squad for the 2006 World Cup.

After his injury, Xavi would go on to win six more La Liga titles, four Champions League medals, two European Championships, and one World Cup. He also holds the record for most appearances for Barcelona.

Zlatan Ibrahmovic

Recovering from an ACL is not just a young mans game.

At the age of 35 Zlatan Ibrahimovic, damaged his cruciate knee ligament in the penultimate minute of extra time in Manchester United’s second leg of the Europa League quarterfinal against Anderlecht in April 2017.

It was anticipated that he would be absent for a full year, but Zlatan being Zlatan only stayed away from the game for seven months before making a comeback.

“Lions don’t recover like humans” was the on-brand Zlatan remark.

In 2022, a few months shy of his 41st birthday, Zlatan would lead AC Milan to their first league title. That would be Rossoneri’s first league title in 11 years. Leading the line for them in 2011 was, you guessed it, Zlatan Ibrahimovic.

Alan Shearer

Alan Shearer tore his right anterior cruciate ligament in 1992, during his first season with Blackburn Rovers.

The following year, Shearer made a comeback and scored 31 goals. He outperformed that the next year, scoring 34 goals to help Blackburn win the Premier League.

He remains the all-time leading scorer in Premier League history with 260 goals.

Ruud van Nistelrooy

In 2000, Ruud van Nistelrooy saw a record breaking transfer to Manchester United collapse after failing his medical.

Shortly after, he tore his ACL in training for PSV.

A year later, having recovered from the injury, the deal would resurrect itself and the Dutchman would join Manchester United for £19 million.

In 219 games for Manchester United, Van Nistelrooy scored 150 goals, helping the club win the Premier League, League Cup, and FA Cup. He also helped Real Madrid win La Liga twice.

In total, he would score 236 goals in 391 games post injury for Manchester United, Real Madrid, Hamburg and Malaga before retiring at 36.

Roy Keane

One of the most infamous moments in Premier League history had its origins 4 years earlier.

During a niggly game against Leeds United, Manchester United captain Roy Keane clashed with Alf-Inge Haaland throughout.

Out of frustration, Keane would attempt to trip his rival towards the end of the game. His studs would get caught in the turf and he ended up tearing his cruciate ligament. Keane would miss the rest of the 1997/98 season. His absence sorley missed as Arsenal would overhaul Manchester United to win the title.

Keane would return for the 1998/99 season and lead Manchester United to the treble (although he missed the Champions League final due to suspension).

After his injury, Keane would captain the side to 4 league titles and two FA Cups.

Four years after injuring himself, Keane would look to seek his misguided revenge and end Haaland’s career with a horror tackle during a Manchester derby.

In Keane’s autobiography, he admitted he went out to deliberately hurt Haaland: “I’d waited long enough. I hit him hard.”

Keenos

The good, the bad and the ugly of Arsenal’s last 24 hours

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David Raya – the good

Let’s start the blog with a positive – David Raya is now an Arsenal player.

Now I get why Arsenal did the deal; having lost Matt Turner, we needed another keeper. Runar Alex Runarsson and Karl Hein are not a number 2.

The opportunity arose to sign a proven Premier League number 1, who is also number 1 for his country. Having two top keepers like Raya and Aaron Ramsdale is better than having Ramsdale backed up by Runarsson.

I think Raya is the one who pushed for the loan deal. And it is a good deal for all parties.

Raya basically has a year to force his way into Mikel Arteta’s first team. If he fails to do so, the loan deal keeps his options open next summer.

He can either sign permanently for Arsenal and continue to fight for his place. He can return to Brentford as their number 1. Or he can push for a move to another club where he would be number one.

For Brentford, Raya did the right thing signing an extension. That leaves the door open for his return and re-integration, and will mean they still get a fee for Raya if Arsenal decide not to sign him.

Finally, for Arsenal it pushes the can of signing a number two down the road.

In 12 months, either Raya and Ramsdale are both happy at the club and we keep both, or one is unhappy and they depart. This 12 months now gives us the time to scout and recruit a new number two. Or to see if Hein can push on.

Jurrien Timber – the bad

It has been confirmed that Jurrien Timber has suffered significant knee ligament damage and is expected to have an extended spell on the sidelines. It has not yet been announced by the club whether this is an ACL, MCL or some other damage.

I feel for the lad.

He is clearly a brilliant player and was one of our top performers in pre-season. At just 22 he was set for a big career and I am sure he would have established himself as one of the best full backs in the league.

Ligament injuries are not the career ender of decades ago. Treatment, rehab and recovery advances have now seen many a player return to the top level. Although many also do still have issues that plague their career.

Moises Caicedo suffered a ruptured ACL when he was 16. Robert Pires, Xavi, Alan Shearer, Ruud van Nistelrooy and Zlatan Ibrahimovic who suffered the injury and went on to become considered amongst the best players of their time after returning.

Virgl van Dijk more recently suffered a torn ACL. He was out for close to a year but returned the beast of a defender he was before (oddly, Liverpool fans are now saying “he was never the same player” despite spending the last 2 years also saying he was the best defender in the world).

What is important is we take out time with Timber. We do not rush him back. If that means he does not play in 2023/24 then so be it.

The fans – the ugly

Following the Timber news, some of our fans looked for someone to blame. They pointed their fingers at American pitches and our medical staff.

Whenever a player gets injured, you always get this Twitter medical experts who have probably not even got a GCSE to their name sharing fake news. Plastic American pitches is this summer myth.

There has been a trend of ACL injuries in recent weeks with Christopher Nkunku, Thibaut Courtois, Tyrone Mings, Emi Buendia and Eder Militao all suffering long term injuries.

All 5 played for clubs who spent some time playing in America, so the conclusion is that temporary plastic American pitches are to blame.

There is zero evidence of this. And in fact the research shows “ACL injuries happened at roughly the same rate on artificial surfaces and grass”.

Some have pointed to the NFL which has a huge ACL issue to highlight the problem with American pitches. But American footballers are suffering due to players being bigger, stronger, quicker and hitting much, much harder.

Fans have also blamed the Arsenal physio’s for putting Timber out for the second half.

The Arsenal physios are some of the best in the game. Their criticis have zero experience in the area.

There would have been a series of tests that the physios would have undertaken to establish if a player could continue. If none of these tests highlighted damage, and Timber said he was OK to continue, then there is no reason for them not to put him out for the second half.

Serious damage like what Timber suffered can usually only be established through scans. Of course, Arsenal will not have an MRI machine in the changing room…

The physios did their job, Timber would have said he was OK to carry on and, like with many injuries, the player then breaks down as soon as he tries to play again.

How about we stop with the blame game and just accept that injuries are part of the game. What is now important is that we get around Timber and support his recovery!

Enjoy your Wednesday.

Keenos

Just how are Chelsea spending big AGAIN

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How are Chelsea still spending? loads are asking. And it is a valid question considering that they are now close to £1b under their new owners.

Back in May, I explained how Chelsea had spent so much in such a short time, and not much has changed since then.

Amortisation is not something new that Chelsea discovered, nor is it an accounting fiddle or loophole. It is a method that has been used by every club for decades. It is also used by businesses when they are buying expensive assets.

In football terms, it involves spreading the cost of a transfer over the length of the contract – although from 2023/24 the maximum a club may amortise a fee for is 5-years after FIFA changed the rules in response to Chelsea handing out 8 and a half year contracts.

So that means if a club buys a player for £50m, they only need to declare £10m in that years accounts. And then a further £10m for each of the next 4-years.

It is important to note that amortisation is different to paying the selling club in installments. You can pay 100% of the fee upfront but still amortise the fee over the length of the contract.

In 2021/22, the year before Todd Boehly and his team took over, Chelsea’s player amortisation was around £160m.

My back of a fag guestimation is that it has only risen to around £180m (prior to Moises Caicedo joining). Why has it risen so little? Two reasons.

Contract lengths

In the last 18 months, Chelsea were signing players to long term contracts not really seen before in football. 7, 8 or 9 year deals (that are common place in American sports). They were then able to amortise those fees over the length of the contract.

As above, FIFA (or it might have been UEFA) have since changed the rules and clubs can no only amortise for a maximum of 5-years, no matter the contract length. This only comes in for deals done from the 2023/24 transfer window onwards.

Had Chelsea not got in before the rule change, their player amortisation would be around £30m more a season than it is now, which in turn would show a £50m increase on 2021/22.

That £30m a year is worth around an additional £150m in transfer fees over 5-years.

Player sales

When a club sells a player, any remaining amortisation value is due within the same financial year.

Each player has a “book value” which is what the club has yet to amortise into the club accounts.

As an example, if you buy a player for £50m and sell them for 2-years later for £30m, this would show a break even in the accounts. Whilst if you sold them for £40m, it would actually show as a profit.

Players also leaving on a free transfer after their contract expires also represents a “break even”. And if that player was costing you £7m a year, it is £7m a year you can spend elsewhere without seeing an increase in your total player amortisation.

Also, players that come through the academy or on a free transfer have zero amortisation value. Sales of these players is 100% book profit.

So far in this window, Chelsea have sold around £250m worth of players. Their departures represent around a £50m saving in amortisation.

In basic terms, that means that they can spend £250m on players, with 5-year deals, and their yearly amortisation would not increase.

On top of that, the departures have generated around a £130m profit once remaining amortisation values of those departing has been offset.

So a mixture of longer contracts and some some good sales has “financed “free’d up” around £80m a year in player amortisation costs. Spread over 5-year deals, that is close to £400m in additional signings.

Now whilst a lot of people will be saying “why does every club not doing this?”, there is a simple answer. It is a huge risk.

Player amortisation is like an ocean current. It flows in and out.

At the end of every season, a club would normally have some level of amortisation drop off the accounts (either due to sales or that players fee being fully amortised). That then free’s up space in the budget to add new players without see expenditure increase from the previous year.

Chelsea are securing players on long term contracts. That means that these players will not be fully paid up within the accounts for up to 9 years.

At the end of the 2023/24, they do not have a single player whose original transfer fee will be fully amortised. That means any new players will have to come from new revenue (either an increase in commercial / TV revenue or player sales).

Taken further, up until 2026, they only have Hakim Ziyech, Malang Saar and Romelu Lukaku whose contracts will be fully accounted for. That will give them the space to spend £155m on new players over the next across the summers of 2024, 2025 and 2026 unless they make sales.

Meanwhile, Arsenal have Nicolas Pepe, Jorginho, Martin Odegaard, Thomas Partey, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Nuno Tavares, Ben White, Aaron Ramsdale, Oleksandr Zinchenko, Leandro Trossard, Kieran Tierney and Albert Sambi Lokonga set to become fully accounted for over the next 3 seasons.

That would free up £385m that can be spent over the 3 periods mentioned above. Obviously some might be sold prior to these, giving us more (and less to spend), or new commercial deals / Champions League money gives us even more freedom.

I bet by the end of 2026, Arsenal would have spent around the same in 5 years as Chelsea. The difference will be we spent ours across 5 seasons, they spent it across 2.

To put simple, Chelsea have done 5 years business in 2 seasons. They have taken a huge risk and are relying on these players on long contracts to become superstars.

As always, sums and figures are approximations. No one knows the exact amount a team has spent on transfers. But hopefully this shows how Chelsea are doing it, and staying within FFP. But are also banking on this crop of players being the ones that take them to the top.

Chelsea have very little room for error with this transfer strategy.

Keenos