Most of this week we have been discussing David Raya and a potential £40million move for the Spanish keeper.
Throughout, I have struggled to see how we can accomodate both Raya and Aaron Ramsdale. I am of the belief that they are of a similar level. I also do not agree with the concept of “two top keepers job sharing. One in the leage, the other in the cups”. I think it spells a recipe for disaster.
The issue is, if Matt Turner leaves Arsenal, we will need to sign someone to replace him.
Runar Alex Runarsson is not even Championsip level, whilst both Karl Hein and Arthur Okonkwo are too raw to be 2nd choice. So what other options are there?
This blog started with me trying to find 5 names that could be 2nd choice to Ramsdale. In the end there was only one candidate I felt I could put forward. Keylor Navas
My first thought when I read the Turner news was “why would he go to Forest to be second choice behind Navas”. I had not realised that the Costa Rican had only signed a 6 month deal back in January.
When looking for a second choice keeper, you either need to go for a young up-and-commer who is on the verge of stepping up to 1st choice, or an experienced old timer who is happy to sit on the bench for the last year or two of his career.
With Ramsdale being just 25-years-old, it is unlikely there will be too many young keepers that would be able to take his glvoes in the coming year or two. As they improve, so will Ramsdale (hopefully). That leaves us at the other end of the market.
Navas is now 36-years-old, but he showed for Forest that he still has those cat-like reflexes that saw him play for Real Madrid and PSG during his career. He was one of their best players as Forest survived in the Premier League.
Any cover for Ramsdale needs to replicate what Aaron can do on the ball. We can not afford to change our style of playe just because a goalkeeper is injured. Navas is very good on the ball.
He always seems to know when he can play it short, and when he should just get rid. Navaz is also not one to take risks or try and overdo it with the ball at his feet.
Whilst 36 might seem old, plenty of goalkeepers have gone well beyond this into their career. You would expect Arsenal could get at least 2 good eyars out of him. And those 2-years could be essential for the development for Hein.
The big worry will be Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extent the MLS.
You can certainly see the Saudi’s offering him huge money for a couple of years with them. Having an ex-Madrid and PSG keeper playing week in week out would be seen as a coup.
Meanwhile the MLS would be like taking one step back home – Costa Rica is less than a 3 hour flight from Miami for example.
With the next World Cup 3-years away, and in America, you can certainly see Navas thinking that a few years in the MLS will be the best chance for him to play in a (nearly) home World Cup.
We obviously will not compete with Saudi Arabia over wages, whilst the MLS could be a more attractive option.
If not Navas, and not Raya, I am not sure who else is out there…
Keenos
We have a great range of Arsenal bottle openers on the store
Yesterday’s blog with regards to our links to David Raya garnered a similar response from many.
“Arsenal have their priorities wrong. We need a new striker, not a new goalkeeper.”
This statement has two parts that I think need addressing.
Arsenal have their priorities wrong
Some fans seem to think that by us looking at a new goalkeeper, we are showing that we prioritise a keeper over a new striker. This is not the case.
We were neither targeting a new keeper or new striker this summer. Neither was considered a priority by Edu, Mikel Arteta or the recruitment team.
There were 3 main priorities going into the summer: a new defensive midfielder, a new attacking option, a new defensive options. In Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber we cover off all 3 priorities fairly quickly.
The main expectation was that we might see Thomas Partey leave. Replacing him would have been a 2nd defensive midfielder to go alongside the acquisition of Rice. It now looks like Partey is going to stay.
Unexpectedly, Matt Turner has become subject to an enquiry from Nottingham Forest. And he has signalled his interest in joining him.
One thing Arteta and Edu are both acutely aware of is players wanting to leave for regular football. Both have moved in their career’s to play more regularly. It is clear neither will stand in the way of a squad player if they wish to move elsewhere to start week in, week out. As long as the price is right of course…
This stance will lead to players respecting Arsenal and assist with our recruiters. Players will know that our management care about their careers and will not force them to stay when not playing.
Whilst Arsenal were not actively looking to sell Turner, we would also not get in his way if he asked to leave to be first choice somewhere. And that opporunity looks to have risen with Forest.
Forest is a step down from The Arsenal. But at 29-years-old, Turner might never get a better chance to be a first choice keeper in a top league in Europe. He would be crazy to sit on our bench instead of playing week in, week out for them.
If a deal is done for Turner, than Arsenal are short of a goalkeeper. We certainly will not turn back to Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson (who basically went on the US tour just to make up the numbers in training).
Being proactive, once that interest from Forest came in and Turner let the club know he would be interested, we begun making enquiries on his replacement. Top of the like would have been Raya.
So this situation is not us prioritising a goalkeeper over a striker. It is that circumstances could mean that a goalkeeper becomes a priority.
If Turner leaves, would you rather spend £40m on Raya, or have Rúnarsson as second choice and a new £40m striker?
A new striker
We already have 3 strikers at the club – Gabriel Jesus, Eddie Nketiah and Folarin Balogun. We also have Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard who have played down the middle at some point in their career.
A new striker will only come in this summer if both Nketiah and Balogun depart. Otherwise we simply do not have the squad place for them.
For those now saying “well sell Nketiah and Balogun then”. Grow up. Football is not as easy as Football Manager and FIFA. For us to sell them, there would need to be a buying club interested in paying what we want. It is not as easy as the old “fax interested clubs”.
And (and this is a huge and), if we do sell both, who are we actually recruiting?
We either need someone who is not as good as Jesus, but better than Nketiah, and happy to be 2nd choice. Or someone that is better than Jesus and hope Gabi does not follow Nketiah and Balogun out of the door.
When you consider Manchester United’s 12 months earch for a new striker will end up with them spending £72m on a 20-year-old Nicolas Bendtner re-gen, you perhaps realise how few top strikers there are out there…
Chelsea have ended up spending over £100m on Christopher Nkunku and Nicolas Jackson.
Nkunku is quality, but not an out and out forward. Jackson, meanwhile, comes with a record and reputation no better than Balogun.
Had we sold Balogun and Nketiah and signed a 22-year-old with 21 careers goals in 92 games, I bet all those saying “we have our priorities wrong” would also be complaining.
When you ask who we should target, you often get the same names: Osimhen, Toney, Watkins.
We do not have another £100m+ to splash on Osimhen. And you have to wonder what Napoli are actually asking for considering that neither Chelsea or Man U went for him.
Toney is banned until the new year, so a move now would make zero sense (considering he is banned from “all footballing activities” I doubt we can even sign him), and Watkins is no better than Balogun or Nketiah. Both would have scored as many for Aston Villa last season.
As for Vlahovic and Mitrovic, these are both different style strikers to what we currently have.
“Perfect, a Plan B then”. Well no. The strikers primary job will be competition and cover for Jesus. Therefore he has to be a similar style player. Otherwise we would be chaging our entire style of play if Jesus ever got an injury / dropped for being out of form.
The truth is, there is no real outstanding candidates out there. Which is why we are probably not prioritising it this summer.
I imagine our scouting network will be told “over the next 12 months we want you to find us another striker”. And that gives us the time to run the rule over them.
And a final point, last season we scored 88 league goals. The most in our history. The narrative that we are poor upfront is just not true.
So if you have got this far, hopefully you realise that Arsenal are not prioritising a keeper over a striker. It is just if circimstance transpire, a goalie becomes a priority.
As for a striker, this is not the 00s where there were a lot of top strikers in world football. Gone are the days where a team could have 3-4 top forwards in their squad. Football has changed…
I joked in June that summer was over, it has since rained every single day. If Europe fancies sending some of the sunshine this way, we will not complain!
Out of nowhere yesterday was the news that Arsenal were interested in Brentford goalkeeper David Raya.
🚨 EXCL: Arsenal exploring deal to sign Brentford goalkeeper David Raya. No bid yet but #BrentfordFC aware of interest. #FCBayern also pursuing but 27yo keen to join #AFC. #NFFC considering Matt Turner; gap in valuations but dialogue ongoing @TheAthleticFChttps://t.co/0D69bVZ75Q
The move is one no one would have seen coming. The feeling was Mikel Arteta was happy with Aaron Ramsdale, and the Englishman has just signed a new contract. So what is the validity of the deal? And would Raya be replacing Ramsdale?
Validity of the deal
When I first read about the deal, the lead story was that Brentford had rejected an offer from Bayern Munich and that the deal was collapsing. “Arsenal are now interested” was a side note to that breaking news.
That made me think “the news is coming from Brentford’s end and they are using Arsenal’s name to push up the bid from Bayern Munich”. As we saw with the Declan Rice deal, clubs will used the media to try manipulate a deal in their favour.
Bayern Munich lost out on Kai Havertz and Declan Rice to The Arsenal. They would not want to lose a 3rd player to us. So my first thought was this was a very intelligent “leak” from Brentford, using our name to force up Bayern’s hand.
But then Ornstein tweeted, leading with Arsenal for Raya. And part of that message included that Matt Turner could be off to Nottingham Forest.
Matt Turner
This then builds a narrative that Arsenal had no interest in a new goalkeeper this summer, but then Forest came in for Turner.
We signed Matt Turner a year ago. He has not really seen much game time and, after a few shakey starts, could not even get into the Europa League team. With Champions League football now on the agenda, he was only likely to start in the League Cup.
His national teams number one, a second season sitting on the bench for The Arsenal could have been detrimental to his hopes of going to the next World Cup as the US first choice.
Another Premier League team coming in for him, offering him the number one spot, would be very attractive. Over the weekend has he informed the Arsenal management that he would like to go to Nottingham Forest. And the result is Arsenal are now in the market for a replacement.
Raya could well be one of the men we have sounded out to replace Turner. We were, of course, looking at him a couple of years ago. But Raya is too good to be a number 2. If he joined would he be replacing Ramsdale?
Replacing Ramsdale
Thomas Frank has said Raya “is worth £40m — he was one of the four best keepers in the Premier League last season”.
Who are the other 3 is the debate?
Liverpool’s Alisson Becker is probably the best goalkeeper in the league. I think most can agree on that.
Last season, Nick Pope was probably the most inform keeper – although his style of play would not suit us. You then have Ederson, Ramsdale, Jordan Pickford and Raya.
Note: I have included Pickford because if we say Pope is top 4, Pickford is England’s number one so has to be in the conversation.
I actually think your top 4 keepers could include any of those 4 names mentioned above, as well as Alisson.
Depending on who you support will bias your decision as to who you have.
Arsenal fans would pick Alisson, Ramsdale and two others, Newcastle fans Alisson, Pope and two more, and Man City fans Alisson, Ederson and two others.
Tottenham fans would leave Ramsdale out of their top 4, Man U fans would leave out Ederson and Sudnerland fans would not pick Pope.
Most would probably put Raya in their top 4, but that is because he is a neutral choice.
Whether Raya is better than Ramsdale is probably a blog in its own right! So what happens if we end up with both?
Return to a cup keeper
The football trend of the 2010’s was to have a cup keeper and a league keeper.
Top teams always played their second choice keeper in the League Cup. but this was then extended to also playing in the FA Cup.
In 2014, it was Lukasz Fabianski rather than Wojciech Szczesny in goal for the FA Cup Final. In 2015, Szczesny had lost his league place to David Ospina, so ended up starting the final. 2017 is was Ospina starting, whilst first choice Petr Cech sat on the bench.
Teams, including Arsenal, extended the game time of their number 2 as the decade went on, often playing the second choice keeper in Europe.
In 2016/17, Ospina would play all 8 of our Champions League games, despite playing just twice in the Premier League. Real Madrid, PSG, Manchester United and Barcelona were others to who played their second choice keeper in the Champions League during this period.
In more recent years, we have seen a return to teams playing their first choice in both the Premier League and Champions League, with a second choice playing in the FA Cup and League Cup.
If Arsenal had Raya and Ramsdale, you would have to think we would start one in the league and the other in the 3 cup competitions. It is the only way we would have a chance of keeping both happy.
How long we could last with one top keeper potentially playing a dozen games a season will have to be seen.
Personally I am not a fan of “job sharing goalkeepers”.
Final thoughts
I do not think we will get David Raya.
At £40m, his transfer fee is huge for a man who is not necessarily better than Ramsdale. And I do not like the idea of them job sharing.
But whilst Frank might value him at £40m, he could end up leaving for a lot less.
Raya’s contract run’s out next year and he has made it very clear he wants out of Brenford. In Mark Flekken they have already signed his replacement.
Like Rice, Brentford will be hoping for a bidding war for Raya (and we might be being used to manufacture one) that will drive up that price. But who would be the clubs in for him?
Munich are clearly in for him, but their loan offer has been rejected. Then you have these links to Arsenal.
Tottenham have already turned their back on Raya, signing some random Italian, whilst Man U have recently announced Andre Onana. Manchester City and Liverpool would be similar to Arsenal in that Raya would not be guaranted number one. Same as Chelsea.
An offer might come in from Spain, but Raya is settled in England – he moved to Blackburn aged 16.
I just do not see a bidding war materialising which could led to Brentford having to consider offers under £30m. At that point, I think we would be interested.
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 