Before the transfer window opened, I predicted we would spend around £100-150million.
The £100m was from our own funds. The space in the budget saved by regaining control of our wage bill after the Mesut Ozil / Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang catastrophes, plus the additional money from new commercial deals and our return to Champions League football.
I felt we could push above the £150m mark depending on sales.
Thus far, we have comitted £105m to Declan Rice and around £65m on Kai Havertz. Jurrien Timber will complete the puzzle for Mikel Arteta and take our summer spending to around £210m.
We will pay around £165m in upfront payments – so not too far north of the £150m I predicted. We do need to take into account those add-ons though, and at some point they will have to be factored into our accounts.
What Arsenal have done which I did not expect was spend before we sell.
I expected the summer to go along the lines:
Stage one: Sign a top midfielder, add a squad defender, spending around £100m
Stage two: Sell some fringe players
Stage three: Buy an attacking player
Stage four: Further signings only made after further sales.
What we have done right now is skip Stage two.
We have signed the top midfielder (Declan Rice), the squad defender is incoming (Jurrien Timber) and the attacker secured (Kai Havertz). Stage one ae Stage three done. Further signings will now only be made after sales. Stage four.
But before those further signings are made, we still need to complete Stage two. Selling some fringe players.
By my estimation, we now need to sell close to £100m of talent to balance those books. Only after that level of funds be raised can we perhaps look to dip back into the market and sign one more (a defensive midfielder to replace Thomas Partey if he departs).
If we do not make the £100m in sales, and Partey does depart, we might not be able to re-invest those funds he raises into a replacement. We might need the PArtey transfer fee to help balance the books.
But things are not a disaster.
In June, I blogged about how Arsenal could look to raise £190m in sales. This would be a huge sum. One I would be surprised if we hit.
This was my list from that blog (with fees taken from Transfermarkts “Market Value” algorithm):
At the time of writing, the only two departures on that above list is Pablo Mari and Ainsley Maitland-Niles.
Mari joined Monza at the end of last month, for a fee believed be around €4.9m. That works out at £4.2m. Not too far off the estimation above.
Maitland-Niles also departed following the expiration of his contract. He is yet to join a new club, with West Ham, Everton, Crystal Palace and Sheffield United link. There has also been talk of him joining the Saudi-revolution.
By not offering Maitland-Niles a new deal, we have sacrificed any compensation. The regulations read: “no compensation is payable if the former club does not offer the player a new contract”.
Granit Xhaka will probably be the first big name to depart once the ink is dry on the Rice deal.
Recent reports are that Arsenal have re-negotiated the deal with Bayer Leverkusen, upwards from the £12m believed to have been initally agreed to a healthier £21.5m.
If this is the case, do not be surprised if Arsenal play a friendly at Leverkusen next summer.
The £21.5m is not too far off the Transfermarkt estimation.
You would be very surprised if Runar Alex Runarsson, Cedric Soares, Auston Trusty, Charlie Patino, Albert Sambi Lokonga and Nuno Tavares were still at the club next season. Arsenal will be hoping to earn around £50m in those sales, taking us halfway to the £100m I think we need to raise to balance the books.
The 6 names above, plus Xhaka and Mari could see the club net around £75m in transfer fees. Thins are beginning to fill a lot healthier.
We then come onto Nicolas Pepe.
I am very surprised there has been little talk about Pepe to Saudi Arabia.
Maybe their representatives sought out his representatives and it was a hard “no” as Pepe still has ambitions to succeed in Europe.
With a year left on his contract, there has been some talk that Arsenal might rip it up, leaving him free to return to France. A French team could then use the lack of transfer fee to subsidise his Arsenal level wages.
Failing that, it might be another loan deal for Pepe. For now I think we have to assume he will raise £0m.
That leaves Arsenal having to sell some of our “better” fringe players. Those who are a lot closer to the first team in comparison to the fringe players mentioned above – Emile Smith Rowe, Kieran Tierney, Folarin Balogun.
To break through the £100m barrier, we probably only need to sell one of them.
Our starting price for Balogun is £50m, but you have to suspect we would accept closer to 35m, plus sell on and buy back clauses.
You can easily see Tierney and Smith Rowe fetching £30m in the current market.
It remains to be seen who of the 3 will go.
I think Balogun is a certainty (unless Eddie Nketiah suddenly packs his bags), whilst the door is open to both Tierney and Smith Rowe.
Arsenal are probably not actively trying to sell either Smith Rowe or Tierney, but our heads could be quickly turned if the right offer came in.
Both are surplus to requirements, but could also have minor roles to play next season.
As mentioned, one departure would likely push Arsenal through the £100m barrier, all 3 would see us raise £150m.
Then we come onto Thomas Partey.
I am kind of ignoring the fee he will generate because I would expect it to go straight back into signing his replacement.
You can certainly see a situation where we sell Partey for £40m then buy Romeo Lavia for around £45m.
The only way his fee does not get re-invested is if we fail to make the required sales.
We do not sell the 6 grouped together above for £50m. We fail to Balogun, Tierney or Smith Rowe. The Partey fee will then be needed to help balance the books.
But saying that, if we are struggling to sell those mentioned, then we will perhaps be looking to actively sell Tierney and Smith Rowe.
That would see their value drop below the £30m as buying clubs will know we need sell to balance the books. But selling the pair would raise the same as Partey’s transfer to Saudi Arabia, and I think I would prefer to keep Thomas.
As for Rob Holding, the transfer fee for him is negligable.
There is talk of a loan deal to turkey. Although I wonder if this was a joke taken too far considering his recent hair re-growth.
Holding will not generate the fee of Smith Rowe or Tierney, so it will all be down to his own ambition.
If he is happy and settled in North London, happy to train at London Colney with little opportunity to play, then he will stay.
What you might see is a club come in late for him during the transfer window to offer a loan deal. Someone who has sold a centre back or two and been unable to recruit a replacement.
Crystal Palace and Wolves could both certainly fall into the category.
So Arsenal need to sell £100m worth of talent to balance the books.
I think we will do that and more.
As the summer goes on, I will keep tracking sales against the Transfermarkt based prediction above. Let’s see if how close we get to those estimated fees…
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 