For a long time, I have bashed the drum about looking to bring someone in who can become the long term-replacement to Thomas Partey.
Partey is one of the best in the world in that defensive midfield position. Up there with Rodri in the Premier League in their ability to do 2 man’s work in that position.
But Prtey he has his injury concerns.
In the 3 years since joining The Arsenal, he has averaged just 33 games a season across all competition. This year he played the most (40 appearances), but had just 29 starts.
As the season reached it’s conclusion, it was clear that Partey had run out of steam, and his performances dropped off a cliff dramatically.
On his day, Partey is world class. But as we move forward as a club to compete on 4 fronts, we need someone who can carry the load.
We will probably play around 60 games next year. Based on recent history, Partey will only be able to play half of those at the highest level. And that is why we are in the market for a younger player with similar attributes.
The two names that have been linked with are Moises Caicedo and Romeo Lavia.
Both men have similar attributes to Partey, but playing at their best are not at his level. Although they do have the potential to reach it.
For all intents and purposes, Caicedo or Lavia would have become Partey’s understudy.
You play Partey in those biggest games. Manchester City, Newcastle United, in the Champions League. Then for the smaller games – Luton Town, Tottenham, the League Cup, you rotate in his understudy.
You do this for a year, and then next year the positions potentially switch with the apprentice becoming the master.
Come 2025, Partey’s contract will expire and his understudy would then be more than ready to step up and take on the role full-time.
The future planning would mean that we could afford to lose Partey on a free as his replacement would already be in place. We would then not be looking to buy to replace Partey as a regular starter, but buy to replace Partey as a back-up dancer.
Caicedo looks like he is off to Chelsea, which leaves us with Lavia.
Our scouting report on the 3 ranked Partey as number 1, Caicedo 2 and Lavia 3. This was not a surprise when you consider Partey’s experience, and that Caicedo is 2 years older than Lavia.
Of the 3, Lavia is certainly the rawest. Which brings me to the question: Can Arsenal afford to let Partey go if they sign Lavia?
I think it will be a big risk to sell Partey and buy Lavia. The drop in experience will be huge. Although we do also have Jorginho.
We would be (in theory) going from Partey as first choice and Lavia his understudy, to Lavia being first choice and Jorginho as an experienced back up. It just feels a year too early for Lavia to be first choice at a top club.
It should also be remembered that when Patrick Vieira and Cesc Fabregas burst on the scen as teenagers, they were part of a midfield 2 and guided by more experienced players (Emmanuel Petit and Gilberto Silva). Lavia will often be on his own in the middle of the park.
Off the field, I get why Arsenal have said to Partey that if he can find a suitor, they would be willing to let him go.
It is illogical for one of Arsenal’s highest earners (Partey on £200k a week) to basically be a part-time player and only be available for 50% of the game. Do the financial reasons to sell Partey outweigh the experience reasons to keep him?
Partey is 30 years old, has a questionable injury history and 2-years left on his contract. If a Saudi team came in with an offer (reported to be around £45million), then it would be a great deal for Arsenal.
With Declan Rice and Kai Havertz potentially incoming, the only way we can probably afford Lavia is by selling Partey.
Those two transfers will see us spend close to £160m. add in Jurrien Timber and it will be £200m spent. Any further transfers will only happen with sales.
So signing Lavia this summer asunderstudy to Partey is not something we can afford. We also can not wait until next year due to a £45m-buy-back-clause that Manchester City have.
That leaves us with the option of either sticking with Partey, seeing his value decline in 12 months and needing to still buy someone. Or cash in now and recycle that income into some new, fresh, without the injury problems and on half the wages.
Experience concerns could be expelled if we recruit Rice. He would be an option at 6 alongside Jorginho.
I could see us, against big teams, go with Rice and Lavia together. And then when we want to play more attacking against smaller teams, go with Rice and Havertz. With Jorginho providing further cover.
Initially I felt that we could not sign someone as raw as Lavia to replace Partey. That a signing should be made alongside him. But as I write this my mind has switched.
We could afford to sell Partey and sign Lavia.
Do not expect Partey to depart soon. He will be unable to move to a club abroad until early-mid July due to personal reasons.
First it was Cristiano Ronaldo, then Karim Benzema. Up next it could be Alexis Sanchez, N’Golo Kante and Wilfried Zaha (note: by the time this is published, these deals could be done).
Saudi Arabia and the UAE has always been a region flush with money. The majority of the time, this money has been used to invest abroad. In Manchester City, in PSG, in Mercedes F1 and beyond. Much of this is driven by sportswashing.
In recent years, they have spent their money closer to home.
The Qatar World Cup, countless F1 Grand Prix’s across the region and the LIV Golf series. It was only a matter of time until that money filtered into football.
Money spent on football is not a new thing in this region. Bafétimbi Gomis and Odion Ighalo are two of the last three season’s top goal scorer in the Saudi Pro League. And in recent years, we have seen a higher quality of players heading to the area.
David Ospina, Felipe Caicedo, Ever Banega, Ever Banega, Grzegorz Krychowiak, Cristian Tello, Matheus Pereira, Luiz Gustavo and Vincent Aboubakar are just some of the names who have gone out there in recent years.
But what we have seen the last couple of months, and what might happen this summer, will take them to a different level.
Many of the players that went out there previously were not superstars. They were fairly average top flight players who had decent (but not exceptional) careers in Europe. Cristiano Ronaldo changed that.
Ronaldo is not only one of the greatest players of his generation, but also an all time great. His move to the Saudi Pro League was a huge statement.
His great rival Lionel Messi is being linked with a move out there prior to agreeing a deal to go to the US. And they could be joined by Sanchez and Kante. Benzema has already joined Ronaldo in the Middle-East. All 5 would have been considered World Class during their peak.
This has led to a lot of excitment from fans within that region who are celebrating these players joining as if it makes their leagues relevant. It does not.
These players are past their peak, and are basically moving to the region to drastically increase their retirement fund. It does not show a “shift of power from Europe to the Middle-East” as I have seen some claim.
The majority of players that are going to the region have had their day. They are no longer the force they used to be. And there was very little interest in any of them from top European clubs. A 35-year-old moving to the Middle-East is not doing so to further their career, they are moving for the money.
Saudi Arabia is not the country to throw money at ageing players in the hope it will make football in their country relevant – and put bums on seats in stadiums.
The North American Soccer League (NASL) was founded in 1968.
After struggling along for a decade, they went on a recruitment drive in the late 70s, offering ageing stars huge money to play in America.
Pele, Johan Cruyff, George Best, Franz Beckenbauer, Eusebio and Gerd Muller were just some of the international stars to see out their career in the US.
Bobby Moore, Geoff Hurst, Godran Banks and Alan Ball were also four of England’s 1966 winners to make the move.
Players at this time were not paid the extortionate amount they currently are, so no one really blamed them for going to the US to build their retirement fund.
With teams losing money left, right and centre, many of the clubs began to disappear in the early 1980s and in 1984, just 9 teams remained. And in 1985 the league ceased it’s operation and senior outdoor football in the US would be non-existent.
It would not be until 1993 that American top flight football would re-start with the creation of Major League Soccer (MLS). The MLS was created as a condition for hosting the 1994 World Cup.
The first 10-15 years of the MLS saw them mainly focus on developing American talent, and recruiting players from across central American.
In 2007 that all changed with the “second invasion of US soccer”, led by David Beckham.
With the league struggling for attendances, and looking to expand, the MLS followed the NASL route by spending big on ageing European stars.
Beckham would joined be joined by Thierry Henry, Robbie Keane, Juan Pablo Angel and Tim Cahill, amongst others.
The US has continued to be a place where past-it stars head to – Wayne Rooney, David Villa and Zlatan Ibrahimovic are a few of the more recent stars to head to the US prior to their retirement.
What the US top league failed to do in either of their guises is recruit any top, top players who at the top of their game. Carlos Vela and Bradley Wright-Phillips the two biggest names to move to America in their peak.
And where America leads, China often follows.
The Chinese Super League was established in 2004. It spent around 10-years of trying to establish itself off the back of local players. As expected, this failed.
In 2012, teams began to go down a new route, recruiting the likes of Didier Drogba and Nicolas Anelka. Joing them was Seydou Keita, Fabio Rochemback, Freddy Kanoute and Yakubu.
China became an alternative option to America as a place to go to top up your retirement fund. Interestingly, whilst the US attracted European talent, China became attractive for those with African heritage and Brazilian’s.
Didier Drogba reportedly signed a deal worth £300,000 a week – a huge sum for a a 34-year-old in 2012.
The league nearly collapsed in 2013 due to a match fixing scandal that saw 12 teams punished. Many of those players also returned to Europe complaining about unpaid wages and poor conditions.
Reports were many of the players, including Drogba, failed to receive much of their headline wages.
From 2015-2018 the league tried to shake off the reputation of non-payment of wages. A second wave of players moved to China including Carlos Tevez, Ricardo Carvalho, Alexandre Pato, Mikel John Obi and Paulinho.
Tevez was reportedly paid $41,000,000 a year – the equivalent of £650k a week.
Like the US, China did not really recruit any established superstars. Oscar and Ramires probably the two biggest names who were at (or close to) their peak.
And new we have the Middle-East – Ronaldo, Benzema, Kante (maybe) and Sanchez (maybe).
Old players, many a long way from their best, heading to warmer climates for a couple of years for a huge pay day.
The Saudi Pro League is just becoming the new Chinese Super League (CSL). the CSL were the new MLS, who themselves were the new NASL. What the Saudi’s are currently doing is just history repeating itself.
The NASL and MLS failed to recruit any truly top players at their peak. The likes of Pele, Best, Beckham and Henry only moving their for the last couple of years of their career.
Tevez, Drogba, Anelka and Alexandre Pato’s top end of European football was also over by the time they reached China.
There was no top team chasing Ronaldo, nor was Benzema generating any interest beyond Real Madrid. Alexis Sanchez will be on his 5th club in 4 different countries in 6 seasons if he moves to the Saudi Pro League.
Wilfried Zaha is 30-years-old and still very much at the peak of his powers – albeit coming to the end of his peak years. I am sure he would have been hoping for an Arsenal, Tottenham, Chelsea or Manchester United come in for him.
Even Newcastle, West Ham or Liverpool would have represented a step up from Crystal Palace. But none of them knocked on his door.
He has been left with an option – stay at Palace, or move to Saudi Arabia on huge money. And it sounds like he is picking the Middle-East.
If Zaha moves to the Middle-East, he will probably be the “biggest relevant star” to play out there. And at £300k a week who can blame him.
Since I initially drafted this blog, more players have been linked to KSA.
The Chelsea group of Édouard Mendy, Kalidou Koulibaly and Hakim Ziyech are all being looked at to be recruited by the league. As is Arsenal’s Thomas Partey.
One thing that is interesting is many of those having big money thrown at them are Muslim. I think that is delibrate by the Saudi Pro League and it’s investors.
It is clear that they are also in bed with Super Agent Jorge Mendes.
Mendes’s agency Gestifute represents Ronaldo, who has already made the move. It also represents Ruben Neves who is close to joining.
Another Mendes client – Bernardo Silva – has also been offered the opportunity but has turned it down.
Mendes is clearly trying to enrich himself and his clients by offering as many of them as possible a move to the Saudi Pro League. And it will highlight those players who want to play at the top against those that are looking to make a move for money.
Most top players will stay in Europe. They will only move to Saudi Arabia if they are on the decline or are more motivated by money then playing at the top.
The Saudi Pro League is nothing to worry about, for now.
Like the US and China, they will struggle to sign any top European player – you can not see Bukayo Saka, Erling Haaland, Kylian Mbappe or Vinicius Jr moving out there any time soon. They will just be disappearing into insignificance.
Any player that goes out to the Middle-East is pretty much going into international retirement (if they play for a top nation).
Oscar moved to China at 26-years-old. Since he moved in 2017, he has not been called up to the Brazilian national team. He was on 46 caps at 25-years-old.
Things might change in the future. Saudi teams might throw enough money at younger European based players to encourage them to join,. A bit like they have done with Liv Golf.
But that will not make their teams any more popular.
What makes football special is the passion of local fans. From London to Napoli, Barcelona to Krakow. You will not get a London-based Arsenal fan begin to support Ali Baba FC just because they have signed Saka.
The Saudi clubs will merely become similar to the whole of the Middle-East – fake.
Oil money can not buy your history, can not buy you heritage, can not buy you culture. It does not matter how many billions these places sepnd on the best hotels, the best footballers, it will not make a huge difference.
People will still come to London to see Buckingham Palace. People will still go down The Arsenal.
China, America and Saudi Arabia will not survive off spending a lot of money in past-it-European-based players. They will only build their leagues if they focus on local talent that local fans can relate too.
America has found this out and the MLS has arguably never been as popular. Inter-city rivalries are now being built which ends a further aspect.
China is still struggling with the battle between local players and foreign, with the gulf in class being huge.
My bet is Saudi Arabia will end up a bit like China. They will struggle to attract top players, and at the same time the influx of over-the-hill players will have a negative impact on local players.
A few people have scratched their head when it comes to the impending signing of Kai Havertz. But his acquisition will allow Mikel Arteta to make tactical and personel changes that were not avaialble to him last season.
Havertz gives Arteta 6 different options as to how we set up:
When we are looking to attack
Kai Havertz gives us the option to play with a more attacking side. By planning him in tandem with Odegaard, we have more creativity in both “8” positions. This gives us more attacking balance.
Expect this formation to be used when we are chasing a game, or when we are playing against a team that will employ a low block and not look to attack us.
Havertz with his passing range, touch and ability to ghost in the box will give us an attacking threat we did not have with Granit Xhaka.
When are looking defend
When we play tougher teams such as Manchester City, Newcastle or away in the Champions League, we may well look to play a little more defensive. This will probably see Havertz dropped to the bench.
Playing Declan Rice further forward (if he signs), gives us a bit more of a solid side defensively. I would expect Rice to play a little less advanced, providing more physicality in the middle alongside Thomas Partey (or Romeo Lavia if the deals happen).
And then if we are chasing a game? You bring on Havertz and play Rice deeper.
The acquisitions of both Rice and Havertz allows us to go more attacking or more defensive than we did when we had Xhaka.
When Gabriel Jesus is out injured / rested
Whilst Havertz’s natural position (for me anyone) is that deeper position on the left hand central side, he has also shown he is a decent focal point upfront.
He is by no means a clinical striker. But as Thierry Henry pointed out, he can play a simialr role to Robin van Persie.
Playing with his back to goal, he can be more of a link up man bringing Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli and Odegaard into play.
van Persie did this with great effect, linking up with the likes of Theo Walcott, Samir Nasri, Andrei Arshavin and Cesc Fabregas.
Havertz gives Mikel Arteta an alternative option in comparison to Eddie Nketiah. Changing the attacking shape with a false 9 rather than having someone run the channels.
When Bukayo Saka is injured / rested
I expect Leandro Trossard to be the first choice replacement for both Saka and Martinelli. But Havertz is also an option on the right hand side.
Left footed, Havertz can replicate what Saka does when he drops inside onto his stronger foot.
When Bukayo Saka is injured / rested (Jesus out wide)
There is also an option to play Jesus outwide and Havertz down the middle if Saka is out.
As described above, Havertz could be great at bringing others into play. And I always feel Jesus is best playing off someone rather than leading the line himself.
Havertz down the middle and Jesus on the right (or vice versa) will allow Arteta the chance to give Saka a rest.
When Martin Odegaard is out injured / rested
Finally, Havertz is a better option than Fabio Vieira if Odegaard is out. I do not think this line up has been discussed enough.
Vieira has not really settled into the Premier League yet. He has great technique but looks weak and lacks confidence. I think there is a player there, but Havertz is simply superior.
Odegaard out injured or rotated? Havertz has to play (unless his versatility is being utilised elsewhere.
Keenos
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