January signings do not win you the league

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Yesterday I had a discussion over whether “if Arsenal do not sign a player in January, does it show that Edu and Arteta have written off winning the league this season”.

My simple answer was no. And then I asked “name a player that has come in during January that has had a huge impact in his first 6 months, leading his team to the league?”. No one could name a single player.

The point I was making that taking into account many players need a settling in time, they are often signed in January with an eye on the next season. A summer transfer bought forward 6-months because they became available. That (for title chasing sides at least), they were not being signed to make an immediate impact.

I did a little Google to see what players joined in January, and the impact they made. This Top 20 January transfers in Premier League history blog is from January 2022.

20. Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang – Made a huge impact becomming the fastest player in Arsenal history to hit 50 goals, but never won the league.

19. Seamus Coleman – Premier League legend. Never won the league.

18. Tomas Soucek – Not sure why he is on this list? Surely there has been better? Plays for West Ham so of course he has never won the league.

17. Youri Tielemans – Had an immediate impact for Leicester City as they finished 9th.

16. Emmanuel Adebayor – Perfect example of someone who was signed with the next season in mind. Scored just 4 goals in 13 games in his first half a season.

15. Mikel Arteta – Did not win the league with Everton.

14. Jose Antonio Reyes – Had an impact with memorable goals against Chelsea in the FA Cup. Scored his only 2 Premier League goals after the league title was won.

13. Ashley Young – Did not win the league with Aston Villa.

12. Clint Dempsey – Did not win the league with Fulham.

11. Branislav Ivanovic – Won 3 league titles with Chelsea, but did not play a single second of football in the first 6 months of signing. Took a couple of seasons to become a regular.

10. Jermain Defoe – Loved a January transfer (Tottenham twice, Portsmouth and Sunderland). Did not win a league title at any of them, but saved Sunderland from relegation.

9. Gary Cahill – “Completed football”. Finished 6th in his first season.

8. Philippe Coutinho – Liverpool won the Premier League after selling him to Barcelona.

7. Nemanja Matic – Re-joined in January for his second spell with Chelsea. Won the league, but 18-months after re-signing.

6. Robert Huth – Joined in January, played almost every game in Leicester City’s run-in as they won the league. Had an impact.

5. Bruno Fernandes – Has not win the league with Man U

4. Patrice Evra – One of the best left backs in Premier League history. 5 league titles. Had a horrendous first 6 months with Manchester United and labelled a flop. First league title came 18-months after joining.

3. Luis Suarez – Goals nearly dragged Liverpool to the title, 3 and a half years after joining.

2. Nemanja Vidic – Signed in the same window as Evra. Won the league 18-months after joining.

1. Virgil van Dijk – Best Premier League defender in the last 5 years. Won the Champions League 18-month after signing, and the league the season after.

Analysing the above list supports my initial view – that players signed in January tend to begin making their impact 6 months later.

Robert Huth is the only man named above who had a big impact as his team won the league. Many of the others (Vidic, Evra, Van Dijk, Matic) were key in their teams winning the league (or Champions League) 18-months after they signed.

This then brings the debate on to whether we should be buying in January for next year, so that they have the 6-month settling in period and will be ready to go come 2024/25.

The answer to that is “yes, we probably should”, but that then does not escape from the fact that the players we are looking at signining will probably not be available in January.

Looking at the names bought “for the next season”, many of them were making a step up from a lesser team, so were available. The likes of Ivan Toney and Borja Mayoral might fit into this category. But the likes Victor Osimhen and Dusan Vlahovic will unlikely be moving this month.

Manchester City, Liverpool, Arsenal or whoever wins the league will do so due to the squads they have built over the last 5-years, pushed forward by the new signings from last summer. Any January signing will unlikely make a big difference maker in the second half of the season.

Keenos

Oh to be Bukayo Saka right now

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It is bloody cold outside! And it is only going to get colder.

Just seen that by the middle of next week, overnight temperatures in London could reach as low at -4°C. If you have not already done so, I would fully suggest ordering yourself an Arsenal fleece blanket from our friends over at Kick Off Merchants.

The Arsenal players are currently out in Dubai on the winter break. This has led to some criticism as to “why are the players on holiday having won 1 in 7. They should be being flogged on the training ground”.

This from the same people that continually moan players are being overplayed and need a break.

The players will be doing some warm weather training out in Dubai. The warmer weather will allow them to partake in longer sessions than they do in the UK, and in a bit more of a relaxed atmosphere.

Training is not a 9-5 job. The players usually do a couple of hours on the training ground, then some gym work for any hour, and then they are done. They will then have lunch and the rest of the day is free for their own. Some players will do extra work in the afternoon – work one to one with a coach or specialist strength and conditioning work. Others will go to the gold course. Bukayo Saka has decided to have a Fanta in the sun.

There is some Arsenal transfer gossip floating about, as there always will be at this time of year.

We have been linked with Getafe striker Borja Mayoral (no idea!), whilst also linked with right backs Jeremie Frimpong and Sacha Boey (again). I am surprised we have not yet been linked with Wilf Zaha who reportedly wants away from Galatasaray.

As always, I would advise ignoring the speculation. Do not get too attached a deals that are probably non-existent.

We are in the market for players in January, and have no financial restrictions. But we are only in the market for the right players – not stop gap signings.

Edu and Mikel Arteta have already previously shown that they will not sign short term in January, preferring to wait for their main targets in the summer. Remember, every penny we spend in January on someone who is not a main target is a penny less we have to spend at another time on our main target.

Personally, I would rather not spend £25m on Borja Mayoral if we are targetting Dusan Vlahovic, Victor Osimhen or Ivan Toney in the summer. It would just be £25m down the drain.

Then again, if Borja Mayoral is a main target and we have no interest in the trio mentioned above, we should move for him in January if the price is right.

Also, do not be concerned that others (Spurs) are doing business.

My starting point when reviewing business (or lack of) is “has someone else yet bought a player I would want”. And I certainly would not want Timo Werner (his legs are gone) or Radu Dragusin. If we wanted either, they would be Arsenal players.

We have our own targets, as don Manchester City, Manchester United, Liverpool and others. It is important that we focus on our own business and do not get upset or influenced by others doing business around us.

As a side note, the new Romanian lad Spurs are buying takes Ange Postecoglou’s spending this year to close to £240m. Interesting how the Spurs fans and the media claim “failure to win the league this season will be failure for Arsenal after what Mikel Arteta has spent” yet Big Ange has spent more (Arsenal have spent £200m).

Keep wrapped up, stay warm, and do not get too jealous of Saka lounging in the sun. I am sure we would all rather be where he is right now.

Keenos

Arsenal not getting results the performances deserve

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Before you comment, I fully understand that 1 win in the last 7 games is not good enough. But I also do not think Arsenal are the broken machine that many claim, nor do I believe Mikel Arteta has been “found out”.

Top managers and coaches (and Arteta is a top one), look beyond the score line when analysing games. They focus on the data behind the performance, not just the result.

They will not be too concerned if a dominating performance leads to defeat with the opponents scoring from their only 2 shots on target. They will understand that these things happen in football.

Likewise, a top coach will not get over excited if they nick the win against their opponents in a game where they were dominated and scored with their only shot. They will realise that, despite the result, there is plenty of work to be done and the victory papers over the issues.

They will make changes in tactics and personnel based on the performances rather than the results – and for most teams it will take more than just a handful of poor performances to make those changes; especially when those poor performances are put into context against maybe a years worth of brilliant performances.

A poor coach, meanwhile, will only care about the results.

They will celebrate nicking a win when they performed poorly like they have won the league. Two or three nicked wins in a row and they will think that their management, tactics and decisions are spot on. But eventually they will begin to get the poor results their performances deserved and they will wonder where it has all gone.

A poor coach will also overreact to a good performance that leads to a poor result. “Tinkering” with tactics and personnel. They will ignore the good work that has possibly happened in previous months, and during the game they lost themselves, and make wholesale changes off the back of that result. This will usually lead to a worsening of performances and a futher dip in form.

I am very calm about where Arsenal currently are. Yes, I am dissapointed that we have dropped from 1st to 4th in a handful of games and out the FA Cup. But I also do not think we are in as bad a place as many make out. The reality is our performances are not as poor as many are making out.

Aston Villa (a) – 1-0 defeat

A very tight game between two of the best teams in the Premier League. Aston Villa were 14 games unbeaten at home, their last defeat against Arsenal.

An even game where clear cut chances were limited, both Aston Villa and Arsenal scored with their best chances of the game. The only difference was Arsenal’s was incorrectly disallowed.

Last seasons game was not too different. A tight game where Arsenal needed a freak own goal from Emiliano Martinez in the 93rd minute to win. Gabriel Martinelli then ran clear to make it 4-2.

This is certainly one of those games that could have gone either way. Last year it went to us, this year to Villa. Probably a sign of their improvement.

PSV Eindhoven (a) – 1-1

A much changed Arsenal team went to Eindhoven and came away with a draw against a team that were unbeaten at home.

A starting XI containing Cedric, Kiwor, Jorginho, Elneny, Nketiah and Nelson. Was a very good performance despite our weakened team.

Brighton (h) – 2-0 win

We got the comfortable result our good performance deserved against a decent, well organised Brighton team.

Liverpool (a) – 1-1

Tight away game. Both teams played well. Both teams could have won it. 1-1 draw a fair result.

West Ham United (h) – 2-0 defeat

A defeat that hurt, and one which coming out of the ground felt like a poor performance. but upon reflection and when re-watching the game, we actually played really well.

It was a real dominating performance as Arsenal had 74% of the possession and 30 shots. Meanwhile West Ham had just 2 shots on target from open play, scoring with them both.

Our performance should have seen us score 3 or 4 goals, whilst West Ham’s opener should have been ruled out as the ball went out of play.

This game was the perfect example of what I describe as “good manager / poor manager”.

Mikel Arteta knew his team played well but did not get the result he wanted. David Moyes celebrated the result, but failed to look beyond that at his teams poor performance.

Fulham (a) – 2-1 defeat

Probably our worst performance of the season.

It was actually a tight game and it could have finished 2-1 in either direction as both sides had a similar level of clear cut chances. Title winning teams win 2-1 off that identical performance. also-rans lose 2-1.

Liverpool (h) – 2-0 defeat

A game that sums Arsenal up during this tough period.

Conceding goals despite limiting opponents to very few chances. Not scoring goals despite creating plenty of chances.

The xG on this one (if you like that stat) was 1.85 – 0.85. It is a fair reflection on the chances created by both teams – and it took an OG for Liverpool to take the lead.

Arsenal played really well in the game and can feel unlucky to be out of the cup.

I would be more worried right now were we on the run we are currently on and:

a) we were conceding a lot of chances and
b) we were not making any chances

The fact is, in every game across the last 7 we have limited our opponents to very few chances, and made plenty ourselves.

Modern managers to put a lot of weight on expected goals (xG) to help evaluate performances.

Now I understand that this statistic is very controversial amongst fans, with many not liking it and feeling like it justifies defeats. But as above, good coaches ignore results and look at permornaces. And xG is a good statstics to help evaluate a performance (alongside other stats).

In our last 7 games, we have had an xG of 13.45 (as in we should have scored 13 or 14 goals). Our xG against was 7.34 (should have conceded between 7 and 8 goals).

Our real results has seen us concede 9 and score 5. This shows that the performances are 85% there. We just need to finish the chances we are creating. And likewise, the xG conceded will soon result in us keeping clean sheets rather than conceding with just 1 or 2 chances againsts

On another day (and all that), we really could have won 7 in a row. Our performances have not been as bad as the results make out.

We are unlikely to win the league title this year, and we are out of the FA Cup and League Cup. I get everyone’s disappointment and frustration. But the truth is we are just not getting the results our performances deserve right now.

Making huge changes (from tactics and playing personnel to sacking the manager), will unlikely change our performances, because they are at a high level.

A new striker (to finish those chances), the bounce of the ball, and some decisions going our way and we will quickly see the tide change. And with Momentum being such a big thing, we only need a couple of wins to go our way and suddenly all these close games that we are losing, we will be winning. And probably comfortably.

Learn not to overreact to everything good and bad. Teach yourself to be more balanced. And you will find yourself being much better at evaluating a situation (both in football and real life!).

The winter break has probably come at a good time for The arsenal. Give Arteta to rebuild the troops confidence and moral without a game every 3 days.

UTA!

Keenos