Arsenal do not need a bigger squad for Champions League football

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At just 23, Manchester City have used the least amount of players in the Premier League this season.

At the other end of the table, Nottingham Forest (33), Southampton (32) and Chelsea (32) have used the most.

What this shows is that it is not about the quantity of players in your squad, but the quality.

We have Champions League football next year, and can expect to play 50+ games in 2023/24 – Manchester City will play over 60 this season.

That has lead to many saying “we need to increase how many players we have” and question why we would consider letting the likes of Charlie Patino and Folarin Balogun depart. These thought processes are incorrect.

We compete on 4 fronts next season not by promoting young, raw players to make the squad larger, but by signing players at the top end of the squad.

Manchester City’s squad is small, but filled with quality. That allows Pep Gaurdiola to rest and rotate regularly, ensuring players that are close to the “red zone” do not get over played and pick up an injury.

They rotate between Riyad Mahrez, Phil Foden, Jack Grealish and Bernardo Silva. They have John Stones, Ruben Dias, Aymeric Laporte, Nathen Ake and Manuel Akanji as options at the back.

This means players come in and out of the team, and they suffer very few injuries.

According to Planet Football, up until 16/03/2023, Manchester City players had missed just 49 games through injury this season. Only Brighton (44) had players miss less games.

We were 7th on the table with 79 games missed (the data was taken on the same day as William Saliba’s final game). 9 teams have players that have missed over 100 combined games:

1. Liverpool โ€“ 162 games missed through injury
2. Chelsea โ€“ 124
3. Newcastle United โ€“ 122
4. Nottingham Forest โ€“ 120
5. Bournemouth โ€“ 116
6. Wolves โ€“ 108
7. Manchester United โ€“ 106
8. Leeds United โ€“ 104
9. Leicester City โ€“ 103

We have not suffered due to William Saliba being injured because we do not have enough players. We have 4 central defenders, plus 2 right backs that can play in the middle.

We have suffered because the drop off from Saliba to his cover (Rob Holding) is too great – remember City have close to ยฃ300m of central defensive options.

Now I do not expect us to go out and outspend Manchester City. They are state funded which allows them unlimited funds to spend on transfer and, more importantly, wages. But that does not mean we can not improve.

The Patino situation sums up what I am talking about.

Fans call for Patino to stay as we need more players. But personally I would buy Declan Rice.

Rice improves the top end of the team. He would walk into our starting XI in two positions; replacing either Partey or Xhaka.

Patino does not walk into the team. He would not be adequete cover for Xhaka or Partey.

You buy Rice, you then rotate Partey, Xhaka and Declan, which keeps all 3 fitter and playing at a higher level for longer. You keep Patino, he is not of the required level which leads Xhaka and Partey to start every game, over play, and get injured.

“But you can have both” some will cry. Really?

Say we buy Rice, that then gives us: Rice, Xhaka, Partey, Odegaard and Jorginho. With further back up in Mohamed Elneny and Fabio Vieira. Now let’s do a little exercise:

Rodri – 50 games played this season (Rice)
Kevin de Bruyne – 44 (Odegaard)
Ilkay Gundogan – 46 (Partey)
Bernardo Silva – 50 (Xhaka)
Phillips – 17 (Jorginho)

Now considering this season Partey has played more games (36) than any other year since joining, I do not think we can expect him to play 50. So you could probably take 15 off him and give 15 to Jorginho.

So we keep Patino and sign Rice, where does he actually get minutes? Get game time? Because he is not better than any of the 5 Arsenal players mentioned above.

Now yes, some will argue that he could replace Elneny or Vieira in the squad. But realistically, how many minutes will they get next season?

By signing Rice, we would have improved the top end of the squad. And that means we can not give game time to Patino.

I have expanded on this thought process, trying to match up our players to the Manchester City equivalent to further highlight the point:

PlayerGames playedArsenal equivalent
Ederson44Aaron Ramsdale
Stefan Ortega11Matt Turner
Scott Carson0Karl Hein
Kyle Walker32Ben White
Rico Lewis20Takehiro Tomiyasu
John Stones29William Saliba
Manuel Akanji43Gabriel
Rรบben Dias39Rob Holding
Aymeric Laporte20Jakub Kiwior
Josh Wilson-Esbrand2Reull Walters
Nathan Akรฉ39Olexsandr Zinchenko
Joรฃo Cancelo / Sergio Gรณmez45Kieran Tierney
Rodri50Declan Rice ???
Kevin De Bruyne44Martin Odegaard
Bernardo Silva50Granit Xhaka
ฤฐlkay GรผndoฤŸan46Thomas Partey
Cole Palmer22Fabio Vieira
Kalvin Phillips17Jorginho
Mรกximo Perrone2Mohamed Elneny
Riyad Mahrez42Bukayo Saka
Jack Grealish46Gabriel Martinelli
Phil Foden41Leandro Trossard
Erling Haaland47Gabriel Jesus
Juliรกn รlvarez43Eddie Nketiah

As you can see, we already match up fairly well in terms of volume of players. We also have Emile Smith Rowe as additional squad depth.

The difference between us and Manchester City is not quantity of players but quality. And that is why we need to be looking at the top end of the squad, not bringing in youth players to add additional numbers.

Our 2nd choice striker is Eddie Nketiah. Manchester City’s is Julian Alvarez.

Balogun is no better than Nketiah, and whilst integratting him into the squad increases our options from 2 to 3, it does not close the gap from 1 to 2. The drop off from Jesus to Nketiah is larger than from Haaland to Alvarez.

If we are looking at signing a new striker this summer, it has to be someone that is better than Nketiah – and even perhaps better than Jesus – rather than someone who is not as good as either.

And even if you argue that Balogun is better than Nketiah, you would struggle to argue that he is on par with Alvarez. We should perhaps be looking at “better than Jesus” with Gabi becoming 2nd choice striker / wing option, than just looking at “better than Nketiah.”

Declan Rice takes us up a step in quality. Charlie Patino does not.

In defence, whilst some might be tempted to say “promote Reull Walters and use Ben White in the middle”, I would prefer to buy a central defender that is better than Holding, and continue to utilise White on the right.

Walters is just 18. He can go out on loan like Manchester City’s Josh Wilson-Esbrand has this.

Buying a top attacker, a top central midfielder, a top central defender pushing others “down a spot”. It is no longer Xhaka, Partey, Jorginho, Lokonga, Elneny, Patino but Rice, Xhaka, Partey, Jorginho, Lokonga, Elneny, Patino.

You then thin out the squad but selling those at the bottom end (Lokonga, Elneny, Patino).

In summary, this summer is not about increasing the quantity of players in the squad. It is all about increasing the quality.

Expect just 3 or 4 signings, and a lot of fringe and youth outgoings. And do not cry because your hyped up youngster has been sold “without getting a chance”. And certainly do not demand that we sign Rice whilst keep Patino. Pick a side of the fence.

Keenos

Four reasons why Declan Rice will move for less than ยฃ120million

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Two years left on contract

Declan Rice’s existing deal has 1-year left on it. West Ham have an option to extend for a year.

This ยฃ120million malarkey is just them posturing. Like putting your house up for sale for ยฃ500,000 when you know you will except ยฃ450,000.

This is the last summer they will be able to get big money for Rice. And big money is around the ยฃ80m mark. I can not see it going higher than that for a variety of reasons,. Including the length of his contract.

The extension will just be so that they get a feee next summer for him; but that fee will be drastically reduced.

I do not see West Ham keeping Rice for another 2-years, so the contract situation is meaningless. They will sell this summer.

Rice wants to leave

Declan has been on a journey with West Ham, but he now clearly feels it is time to get off that train.

He is not a West Ham boy. Not born and bred within the sound of the Mary le Bow bells.

Rice is now 24, does he really want to spend another year or two in relegation battles? Or finishing mid-table? Probably not.

He has seen his great friend and fellow former Irish international Jack Grealish move from his boyhood club to one of the top sides. Grealish will be adding his 2nd league title in 2 years.

Rice was heavily linked with a move away last year. When that happens, and the player stays, you wonder what deal they have done with the club.

“Stay for one more year and then we will not stand in yoru way next summer” is the discussion that would have been had.

It will be very bad for West Ham if they do not honour the gentleman’s agreement. If they try and price him out of a big move.

Rice will also expect to earn ยฃ200k+ a week. That is around 3 times his current salary.

If Rice leads his team to a European trophy at the end of this season, he knows he can leave having taken the Hammers to glory, and probably as far as they will go.

Next season he wants to be playing Champions League football. Competing for major honours. And that is not something he can do at West Ham.

More money, more trophies. Rice will force a move.

Lack of competition

It is strange for a player of Declan Rice’s quality to come on the market and there be such little competition for his signature. Bar minor interest from Chelsea and Liverpool, Arsenal will not face any other competition for him.

Manchester City already have Rodri, with Kalvin Phillips backing him up, whilst Manchester United have Casemiro and Fred. I would be surprised if they go that big for a central midfielder.

With Manchester United, their ownership issues may also massively impact their transfer dealins this summer.

Liverpool are on the look out for a midfielder, having lost out on Jude Bellingham, but I do not think they have the money to make big moves in the transfer market this summer.

They will also be more focusing on someone a little more attacking, like Alexis Mac Allister, rather than a defensive shield.

Likewise, Chelsea have spent so much in the last 12 months, I am not sure they have much left in the pot. They will need to sell to buy this summer. Arsenal should be looking to get a Rice deal done early, before Chelsea get their eggs in a row.

Tottenham can not afford him.

Newcastle could be the final option in England. Their transfer business will be very interesting. With Champions League football, they can now attract a higher quality of player. But can they compete for the best?

When you look abroad, Real Madrid are set to add Bellingham to a squad that already contains Aurรฉlien Tchouamรฉni, Eduardo Camavinga and Federico Valverde. Whilst Barcelona have huge financial restrictions.

PSG will always come into the equation, but I feel top players do not have much interest in wasting their career in Pairs.

Elsewhere, Italian and German clubs will not spend that sort of money on a single player.

That leaves just Arsenal as the only said that have the money, the squad space, and the desire to land Declan Rice.

Other options

Declan Rice is not the only top defensive midfielder who could be on the market this summer.

Moises Caicedo is one we nearly got over the line in January. He is clearly talented and at just 21, could become even better than Rice.

If West Ham stand firm on the Rice fee, Arsenal will look elsewhere for more reasonably priced alternatives. And Caicedo will be top of that list.

Martin Zubimendi is another who has been on our radar for a while.

He has a fairly similar profile as Rice, and would have been picked out by StatsDNA as an alternative.

Zubimendi has a โ‚ฌ60m release. That is around ยฃ52m in real money. Less then half the price of a Declan Rice.

Arsenal had a sniff around Madrid’s Camavinga last summer. The Frenchman is currently in contract negotiations with the team.

With the arrival of Bellingham, and with Tchouamรฉni and Valverde in the squad, Madrid might decide to cash in on Camavinga. Especially if a big bid comes in.

Then you have a rawer option like Romeo Lavia.

Rice is clearly being bought in to replace Thomas Partey. But if a deal for the Englishman can not be made, one option could be to sign Lavia and have him playing back-up to Partey for a season.

Lavia is a raw talent who has performed well in a poor Southampton team. With their relegation nearly nailed on, you have to think Lavia will be on the move this summer.

Reports are Manchester City do have a buy back clause, but this is only from 2024.

In summary, the amount of defensive midfielders that could be available will drive down the price of Rice.

Rice wants to leave.
West Ham are not in a good negotiating position.
Little competition to create an auction.
Other options available.

I think Declan Rice will be ours for around ยฃ80million this summer.

Keenos

Odegaard the key to unlocking the low block

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Frank Lampard became the greatest goal scoring midfielder the game has seen by finding space in and around the edge of the box, and getting his shots on target.

He was a great weapon for Chelsea during their dominate years of the mid-late 00s. Always able to come up with key goals when opponents were defending deep.

In the last two games – against Chelsea and Newcastle – Martin Odegaard has scored 3 times. And all the goals were very similar.

Faced with a defence deep in the box, and a midfield on the edge of the box, Odegaard loitered a bit a deeper awaiting for the cut back. And then when the ball came to him, he did not try and smash it into the top corner. Instead he picked his spot and focused on getting the shot on target.

As the season has gone on, we have seen teams sit deeper and deeper against us, suffocating the space of Gabriel Martinelli, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Jesus.

By dropping deeper into space, Odegaard has become the key that unlocks the deep block. Sides defending so deep that he has time on the ball to take a touch, pick out his spot, and get the goal.

Odegaard now has 15 league goals this season, the most by an Arsenal midfielder since Cesc Fabregas in 2009/10. His tally is even more incredible when you consider he does not take penalties (3 of Cesc’s 15 goals came from the spot).

It is unbelievable that some Arsenal fans do not recognise Odegaard for the talent he is. They spend more energy on his poor games rather than his great games.

Every player has a bad game. Whether you are Odegaard or Kevin de Bruyne, Fabregas or Mesut Ozil. It happens.

I imagine the majority of those who go out of their way to criticise Odegaard do so because they are still in love with Ozil. They blame Mikel Arteta for the German’s downfall. And as Odegaard was Arteta’s chosen one to replace Ozil, they unreasonably hate on him too.

These fans need to begin living in the moment. Ozil is retired at just 34 following 3 seasons of failure at 2 Turkish clubs.

At his peak, Ozil was one of the best creators in the game. 19 assists in the 2015/16 season. But that was 7 years ago, and his decline began after that season.

In 2015/16, Ozil also scored 6 goals, giving him 25 goals and assists in the Premier League. Odegaard is now on 22.

And at still only 24, I fully expect Odegaard to continue getting better. This season will not be his peak. As long as he continues to work hard and apply himself, he will be at the top of the game for the next 7 or 8 years.

With Martinelli, Saka, Jesus and Odegaard, we have goal scoring threats across the front 4. And that is why we have been so dangerous this season.

Now all we need is Fabio Vieira to bulk up and step up, so that when Odegaard is having a poor game, or needs a break, we have someone who can step up.

Because ultimately that is the difference between us and Manchester City. Pep can leave de Bruyne on the bench and replace him with Bernardo Silva, Jack Grealish or Phil Foden.

Odegaard is a superstaer. We now just need to show the ambition his talent deserves. Because if we do not I can see City going for him in 12 months as a long term de Bruyne replacement.

Keenos