Whistle stop tour of all things football this Friday.
Firstly we have the announcement from the Government that they would be setting up a “Independent regulator” following a “fan led review”.
The review seems to have been led by fans from lower clubs, and in all honesty it just feels like a money grab.
The new regulator will have powers to impose a new financial settlement, which ueffectively means it can force the Premier League to share more money across the pyramid.
Every official on the TV or radio yesterday said “we need to see more money flowing down from the Premier League”. They spoke very little about protecting the traditions of clubs, and acting on what fans want.
The Premier League already filter down more money to the lower leagues than any other top flight league across Europe. I really don’t get why they are demanding more.
Currently, the Premier League “gives away” around 15% of revenue to football across the globe.
Yes, teams such as Southend are struggling financially. And we have seen the likes of Bury go under recently. But this is due to bad ownership, not because not enough money filters down from the top league.
If you gave a club like Southend an extra £1m from the Premier League, they would simply spend an additional £1.5m and be more in debt. And then demand more.
The proposals are just footballs equivalent of “tax the rich more, increase benefits”.
For some people, it does not matter how much they are paid in benefits. They will still be jobless. Still spend money on cigarettes and alcohol, still have sky tv and £50 phone bills, and still complain that they are living in poverty. Go and give these people an extra £500 a month and their lives don’t change.
They need education and encouragement. And football is the same.
Lower league clubs that get themselves into financial trouble often do so because they spend more than they receive. And if they received more, they’d spend more. It’s as simple as that.
Do I think we need better governance over our game? Yes. But consulting fans on badges, kit colours, stadium, etc should be separated from “increasing what the PL pay to lower leagues”.
Late last night news broke that the Bukayo Saka deal was close, with a salary of £10m a year mentioned.
This certainly felt like Saka’s people leaking a story to say “if he gets £10m a year, he will sign”. I guess the ball is in Arsenal’s court now.
Would I pay him £10m a year? Probably.
Saka probably Arsenal’s best player, one of the top 3 right wingers in England, one of the top 5 in the world. £200k a week does not feel too unreasonable for what he does.
Let’s get him secured to a nice long deal and then we can get back to concentrating on the title chase. Starting tomorrow against Leicester.
Including those out on loan, we have 34 “senior” players at the club. If all 12 left, that would leave us with a 22 man senior squad.
Obviously 22 is not enough. We need 2 for every position, a 3rd keeper and then an extra couple utility players.
Premier League rules restrict us to 25 registered players. Although that does not mean we do not have to have just 25 players as U21s do not need to be in the “List A” of 25.
With Champions League football, we need to ensure we have squad depth to compete on all fronts. That probably means a first team squad of 26-27 players.
If we reduce the current squad to 22 – which would be the core players Mikel Arteta has used this season – that will see us needed 4 or 5 additions.
That does not mean we will be signing 4 or 5. I expect us to only recruit 2 or 3 new players, with the majority of our funds going on a centra midfielder.
The remaining players in the first team squad will come from youth promotion.
So who do I expect are the 3 or 4 youngsters to step up into the first team squad next season?
Charlie Patino
The current diamond of the youth team.
Patino struggled during his first attempt at senior football in the FA Cup last season. He looked a boy playing a man’s game.
A year on loan at Blackpool has seen him grow physically and mentally. He now looks ready to step up.
Patino is the reason we are not looking to recruit someone to cover Granit Xhaka. Patino is the heir apparent.
Brooke Norton-Cuffy
The right back has been touted as one for the future for some time.
We ended his loan spell with Rotherham early, and sent him off to Coventry. I am not sure why.
Ben White is clearly first choice right back right now. He is backed up by Takehiro Tomiyasu.
White also covers centre back whilst I expect Tomiyasu to be 2nd choice left back next season. That means we could do with a 3rd right back option to cover injury.
Cedric is currently 3rd choice right back and likely to leave permanently in the summer.
We really do not to invest much in that a 3rd choice right back so the promotion of BNC makes a lot of sense.
Lino Sousa
The situation at left back mirrors what is happening at right back.
I expect Kieran Tierney to depart in the summer. Tomiyasu would then replace him.
We will be in a situation where White and Zinchenko are the first choice full backs, and the Tomiyasu is first choice cover on both.
As above, we then need a 3rd choice on both sides to ensure we are not too stretched.
Lino Sousa is a highly rated teenager that we signed from WBA last summer. He is potentially a long term replacement for Zinchenko.
Only just turned 18, he may well go out on loan next season. Maybe with a recall clause in case injuries hit.
He is already training with the first team, so it feels a natural transition from Tierney to Sousa.
We add these 3 youngsters to the first team squad, and sell/loan out the 12 previously mentioned, we have 25 players.
I would then expect us to buy another defensive midfielder. A big money lad. Declan Rice or Moises Caicedo.
A Rob Holding replacement might also be recruited if Arteta decides to further strengthen the defence.
We might also see a right winger come in if the club decide to cash in on ESR.
The squad is looking good and healthy. It is now about recruiting quality that can make an instant impact rather than quantity.
We then use Hale End to fill those fringe gaps and (mainly) to raise funds for those big transfers.
There are a lot of other talented youngsters in the system. Some exciting players. They need to be kept under wraps right now.
The only two position which see a huge drop off from first team to second team is Partey to Elneny. Albert Sambi Lokonga has also proved himself not to be a great option.
Arsenal have been linked for some time with a new “6” and new “8”, and many of us expected us to sign someone in January having missed out on Douglas Luiz on deadline day in the summer.
We stayed quiet on the central midfield position for much of the window, and saw one of our long term targets join Nottingham Forest – Danilo.
The lack of activity in these positions indicated one thing. That we would go big on a central midfielder at some point.
Then the news about Moises Caicedo broke. We were then unable to get the deal over the line.
So come the summer, central midfield is where we need to heavily invest – and specifically cover and competition for Thomas Partey.
Partey has missed the last 2 games with injury, and if we were not already in for a top class midfielder, his latest injury would have changed that opinion.
Since joining us, his career has been blighted by muscle injuries. We have tried to manager the situation this year, but his body has failed him again.
The best defensive midfielder in the world when fit, our last two seasons have collapsed at the same time he has picked up an injury. It will be devastating if his latest injury is the reason we stumble in the title race.
We do not have a great deal of business to do this summer – Jorginho, Trossard and Kiwior have added squad depth in places where it lacked. The defensive midfielder could be our only major signing. that means we could be looking to spend close to £80million on someone.
We already know our 3 main targets. I have blogged on the enough. But a quick summary:
My gut had always been that he is “too advanced” in his career to join us. That it would be pointless signing such a developed player when we already have Thomas Partey.
But when you look at how many games Partey misses, a case can be made for having two top players in that position.
For West Ham, Rice has also been a driving force going forward, meaning that he provides that Xhaka cover alongside competing with Partey.
Some pundits have also said that his long term future could be as a ball playing central defender.
Signing Rice could mean that Rob Holding is sold. We then have Rice or White as the injury replacement for William Saliba.
The transfer fee also previously scared me off Rice – West Ham were demanding in excess of £100m. But recent valuations have been in and around £80m. And that will only drop further if they are relegated.
With Manchester United, Liverpool and Manchester City not in the market for someone of Rice’s mould, that leaves the path free for Arsenal and Chelsea. And Chelsea seem to prefer Moises Caicedo.
Arsenal could further reduce the fee if we let Kieran Tierney go the other way.
“Cash + player” deals are rare in football. There a lot of moving components:
Player A needs to want to join Club B Player B needs to want to join Club A Club B need to want to sign Player A Club A need to want to sign Player B
If West Ham do stay up, they will be in the market for a left back – Aaron Cresswell is now 33. Tierney would be a good option for them.
Likewise, Arsenal would clearly want Rice.
As for the players, Rice’s first choice would be a return to Chelsea – his family still live neasr Cobham. But if that deal fails to come off, then a move to Arsenal would be a no brainer.
Tierney is then only difficult one.
Would he want to take that “step down” to West Ham? There are plenty of “pro’s” including not having to move and getting regular first team football.
I think Rice will become our first choice.
Moises Caicedo
If Rice ends up going to Chelsea, that leaves us in the driving seat to sign Caicedo.
I actually think Caicedo is more suitable for us taking into account his age and playing style.
He is more similar in style of play to Thomas Partey and just 21-years-old, can be more gradually bought in to replace the Ghanaian.
We showed our hand in January, but Brighton held firm.
The deal failed to go through and I would not be surprised if Arsenal are back in for him in the summer.
Rice and Caicedo on the market. You almost need Arsenal and Chelsea directors to get together and decide who they each want. and agree not to enter into a bidding war for the other target.
Martin Zubimendi
Arsenal’s Stats DNA has pointed to Martin Zubimendi as an alternative to Rice and Caicedo.
The Spanish midfielder highlights why having stat based recruitment is so important.
It allows you to find players of similar attributes as your main target, but might now have the “big name”.
Zubimendi has a £52.8m release clause, making him the cheapest man on this list. But many statisticians show his output is not do dissimilar to Declan Rice.
Earlier in January, reports were that we had triggered the release clause, but Zubimendi had decided to remain at Real Sociedad until the end of the season.
This is admirable as he is born and bred in San Sebastián and joined his home town club at 11.
Sociedad currently sit 3rd in La Liga. Zubimendi clearly feels an obligation to secure his team a Champions League spot for the first time in a decade.
However, there is talk that Zubimendi might also be waiting for Barcelona. Have they given him the heads up they will move for him in the summer?
I think he is the Plan B to Rice and Caicedo who are Plan A’s.
The only concern will be is if he gets a move early in the window and then we miss out on Rice/Caicedo.
And we do not have the funds to spend £50m+ on him and then “sign another” later in the summer.
They way I see it is simple.
Rice is valued at around £80million. Zubimendi has a £52million-ish release clause. Caicedo should sit between the two.
If Brighton still demand a huge fee for Caicedo, then Rice at a similar large fee makes more sense. Or alternatively we go for the much cheapr Zubimendi.
If we can battle the fee for Caicedo down to closer to what Zubimendi will cost, then the Columbian becomes our first choice.
In the summer, I expect one big signing – a defensive midfielder – and that is probably about it.
The squad is now in the position where we make one or two big signings a summer, and then the rest is as players leave. A bit like where Man City are right now.
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 