Will Guendouzi ever become Great?

In recent years, Arsenal have been criticised for letting some talented youngsters go.

The real Serge Gnabry story has been written numerous times; those that ignore what actually happened do so because the truth does not suit their agenda.

Likewise the criticism of the club for releasing Donyell Malen, Jeff Reine-Adelaide and Ismaël Bennacer has always baffled me.

Malen at youth level was a long way behind the likes of Stephy Mavididi, Eddie Nketiah, Reiss Nelson and had the likes of Xavier Ameachi and Bukayo Saka coming up behind him.

He decided to return to his native Holland where he has performed well. However there is a huge gulf between the Eredivisie and the Premier League.

I am sure had Nelson or Nketiah gone to Holland at the same time, they would have similar numbers – maybe even more.

Until he shows that he can put up similar performances in England or Germany, I do not think he should be put down as “one that got away”.

Likewise, those that write that “The Jeff” should ever have been sold probably do so because they were one of the ones that hyped him up as the next big thing following one Emirates Cup pass.

He was so sought after when leaving us that he joined Angers.

Lyon then spent €25 million on him, he played 15 league games and they loaned him to Nice.

Within the terms of the loan deal, Nice had an option to sign him for €25 million. But after making just 13 league appearances last season they decided to not trigger the deal.

Reine-Adelaide is now 23. Put him up against Emile Smith Rowe (3 years younger) and tell me who the better player is. It is the Englishman.

I doubt there will be too many of Europe’s top clubs looking to sign Jeff this summer.

Finally Ismaël Bennacer sums up the “hindsight football expert” that social media seems to have been created.

I was in Sheffield that fateful night when we lost 3-0 to Wednesday in the League Cup. It was Bennacer’s debut and he was less than impressive – as was much of the team.

When Bennacer joined Italian club Empoli, it was done with barely any fanfare. No one was saying it was a mistake. That we should not have sold him.

He was just another youngster who had failed to make the grade and was let go.

After 2 good seasons, AC Milan came in for him.

It was at this point there was a bit of noise from some that we “should not have let him go”. Where were these people when we sold him? They probably had not even heard for him.

Youngsters need game time to improve and progress.

We have seen that with Emile Smith Rowe and Bukayo Saka – meanwhile Nketiah and Nelson have stagnated due to lack of game time.

The thing is Arsenal are not a charity. We are not a feeder club. We can not give game time to every young player in academy. We can not develop every single one.

Most players in top sides academies will leave to find first team football elsewhere.

Some will sink and end up working on a building site, telling stories about how they were once at Arsenal or Chelsea; others will find their place in the lower leagues. Whilst the odd few will work hard and rise back to the top.

Nothing that Malen, Reine-Adelaide or Bennacer have done has proved Arsenal wrong in thinking they would not be good enough for us. None are playing at a higher level than Arsenal.

And this brings me on to Guendouzi.

Matteo could be the one who, alongside Gnabry, a genuine case could be made that he ended up playing at another level than Arsenal.

But like Gnabry, his time at the club will be re-written by many.

At 19, Guendouzi looked the find of a generation.

Tall, strong, confident. He was an Arsenal captain in waiting.

And then the cracks began to appear. The issues. The arguments. The petulance.

Now 22, it seems his behaviour is not improving with age.

His social media posts over the last few days (many deleted) highlight just why Mikel Arteta had enough of his attitude.

Will it finally click at Marseille? Will he go on to put in a stellar season or two which will get him that move to Bayern Munich, Manchester City or Real Madrid?

His future is in his own hands. It always has been.

For now, I will not lose any sleep in us selling Guendouzi. Arteta can not be a babysitter to a 22-year-old man.

Let him be another clubs problem. Another managers pet product. But history has a tendency of repeating itself.

If Guendouzi grows up, he could be a great. If he doesn’t, he will go the way of many before him and just be a footnote in history.

Keenos

Smith Rowe to Villa – No smoke without fire

Whilst the rules dictate that a club must not contact a player or their representatives without the permission of his current club, this is unworkable in the real world.

If a team is looking at signing a player, they need to know said player is interested. Otherwise they could be wasting a lot if time negotiating and agreeing a fee with the selling club to only find out their target has no interest in joining.

So Aston Villa are reportedly coming back in with a 3rd bid for Emile Smith Rowe having already made 2 very public bids. They seem determined to sign their man.

To still be chasing Smith Rowe, they must have got assurances from the midfielders “people” that he would be interested in joining them.

Now it might be a negotiating tactic, an attempt to drive up the value of his new contract. But it also might be that Smith Rowe feels now is the right time to leave Arsenal.

So having had a huge break through last year, just why would Smith Rowe be looking to leave the club he grow up playing for?

First Team Football

It is no secret that Arsenal are looking at adding extra creativity going forward.

To put bluntly, the club are trying to sign a number 10 better than Smith Rowe.

They tried to do it in January with the loan signing of Martin Odergaard, but the Englishman arguably out performed him.

Having had a sniff of regular first team football, perhaps he does not want to go back to sitting on the bench in the same way Emi Martinez did not last summer.

Aston Villa have already signed Emi Buendia; but the former Norwich player has tended to play out wide.

Spending big on Buendia and Smith Rowe would probably be funded by the departure of Jack Grealish. Smith Rowe would be coming in as Grealish’s direct replacement. Straight into the first team.

World Cup 2022

There is a World Cup at the end of next year.

England have an abundance of attacking midfielder with the likes of Grealish, Phil Foden, Mason Mount and James Maddison.

Smith Rowe has an outside chance of making the squad for that World Cup, but as long as he is playing regular football.

Playing second fiddle to (for example) Maddison at Arsenal would severely restrict his chances of making that squad.

But playing week in week out for Villa, putting in the kind of performances he has for Arsenal in the last 6 months. He would have a chance of being on the plane to Qatar.

Smith Rowe needs regular football to be on the plane.

Money

In years gone past, the bigger clubs could keep hold of their second string players due to the wages they were on.

Someone like Smith Rowe would have earned more sitting on Arsenal’s bench than playing week in week out for someone like Villa.

Smith Rowe is reportedly on £20,000 a week at Arsenal.

In recent months Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka both agreed new deals in the region of £80,000 a week.

Smith Rowe is probably the level below them at the moment, so you would be surprised if the new offer on the table to him was any more than £60,000 a week.

Arsenal have a wage structure and paying him much more than that, as a “2nd string” player, and someone with such little experience would upset the apple cart too much.

£60,000 a week would already put him into the same ball park as more established players like of Rob Holding, Mo Elneny and Gabriel Magalhaes.

Were he to go to Aston Villa, and go straight into the first team, he would expect to earn at least £60,000. Maybe more.

Buendia signed on an £80,000 a week deal. Tyrone Mings and Ollie Watkins are reportedly on similar.

So where as 3 or 4 years ago someone like Villa would be offering Smith Rowe less money, but first team football; they can now offer parity or more plus the first team football.

A better chance of first team football, opening the door to making the World Cup 2022 squad and pay parity. You can kind of begin to understand why Smith Rowe would be open to a move to Aston Villa.

Ultimately his agents flirting might just be an attempt to get more money out of Arsenal – closer to what we pay Saka and Martinelli.

I am sure it will all play out in the next 7 days.

Keenos

Arsenal have to sell before they buy

Arsenal’s transfer headache is actually very similar to 12 months ago.

Before we sign players, we need to sell.

This has nothing to do with money or cash flow. We have the finances to sign who we want.

Despite Sokratis, Shkodran Mustafi and Mesut Ozil leaving last January, Martin Odergaard and Dani Ceballos’ loans ending and David Luiz leaving us on a free last week, we still have too many players.

As it stands on the club website, we have 27 “senior” players.

Premier League rules dictate that your registered first team squad may have no more than 25 players.

Of this 25, only 17 may be non-home grown (we all know the rules so I will not repeat).

On top of the 25, you can have as many U21 players as you wish – for this season anyone born before 1st January 2000 will be considered U21.

As it stands, Arsenal have:

  • 16 non-home grown senior players
  • 7 home grown senior players
  • 4 U21 players

That leaves us with just 2 free spots, of which only one can be taken up by a non-home grown player.

One of our issues last summer is we “blinked first” bringing in players before we sold.

This led clubs trying to sign the likes of Sokratis and Mustafi on the cheap as they knew Arsenal had to sell.

Arsenal are looking to move on the likes of Hector Bellerin, Granit Xhaka, Alexandre Lacezette, Sead Kolasinac and Lucas Torreira this summer; but to maximise the income we need to ensure we do not appear desperate to sell.

Those 5 departures will not only raise key funds, but also free up 4 non-home grown senior slots (increasing to 5 if you include Matteo Guendouzi’s departure) as well as another home grown slots.

If we sell all 6 players mentioned, that would leave Arsenal with 8 squad slots available – split 6 non-home grown and 2 home grown.

That would give Arsenal the flexibility required to sign who we want regardless of “status”.

With Emile Smith Rowe, Bukayo Saka and Gabriel Martinelli as U21, I can see Arsenal going into next season with around 23 registered players, plus the 3 unregistered – that would leave us with room to spare if we need a January signing or two.

Saliba (who is U21) and Guendouzi will be the beginning. Once more follow them out the door, expect incoming players to happen quickly.

Keenos