Where has all the oil money gone?

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A year ago, the Saudi Pro League were disrupting the transfer market, with clubs spending nearly £1bn combined. Only the Premier League clubs had a larger combined spend for 2023/24.

This year, Saudi clubs have spent just £15om between them. That is less than Chelsea have spent alone – and pretty much the same as what the likes of Aston Villa, Brighton and Manchester United have spent this summer.

So what is happening out their in the Middle East?

Players do not want to go

Players talk. And perhaps more importantly, players wives and girlfriends talk.

Aymeric Laporte spoke last year about how players were “dissatisfied”. The Spanish defender went on to raise issues from working conditions, quality of life and broken promises.

Many WAGs dreamed of a Dubai style living experience, but have quickly realised that Saudi Arabia living is very different to that in the Emirate city, with many players deciding to live in the more liberal Bahrain. As Laporte, put it, “you spend a lot of time in the car” due to having to commute across borders and because of traffic.

The conditions have already seen the exodus of players – most notably Jordan Henderson how only last half a season. Joining the ex-England captain in the departure lounge are the likes of Ivan Rakitic, Allan Saint-Maximin, David Ospina, Matheus Pereira and Andre Gray.

12-months ago, many players would have been saying to their agents “I will have a bit of that. See what you can do”. This summer and it appears players are less willing to manufacture of a move for themselves.

Players waiting for European offers

There has been a bit of head scratching around Ivan Toney, who looks destined to move to Saudi Arabia in the next 10 days. “I am surprised a top English team have not taken a punt” seems to be the consensus.

I am sure every Premier League club, including Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, would have have had a look at Toney and had a discussion with his representatives. they have all been put off by what they have either seen or head.

It might be due to Toney’s wage demands (reported to be £250k a week), concerns about his attitude, or just his poor form since returning from his transfer ban. With doors closing around England, and none opening further afield in Europe, the only opportunity left on the table was Saudi Arabia.

I am fairly positive that had an English team come in for Toney, he would have preferred to remain in England. A move to Saudi Arabia was probably his last resort.

And you have to wonder how many other players are currently sitting their thinking “yes, I will go to Saudi Arabia, but I would prefer to stay in Europe if that is possible”.

The likes of Raheem Sterling, Ben Chillwell, Reiss Nelson, Romelu Lukaku and Jadon Sancho might all decide last minute to go to Saudi Arabia for the year if other deals fail to materilise.

Saudi Arabia will end up becoming a players “second choice”. The UEL of football.

Investors losing interest

The Saudi Pro League was always an exercise in sportswashing.

Alongside “Riyadh season”, which has taken boxing, F1, snooker, WWE, MMA, snooker and various European “super cups” to the capital, the Pro-League was all about buying a fan base to try and take the narrative on Saudi Arabia away from their horrendous human rights record.

Football has failed to take off in Saudi Arabia, with the 18 clubs averaging just 8,158 across the 2023/24 season. Al-Ahli SFC had the highest average with 23,370. But with the King Abdullah Sports City stadium holding in excess of 60,000, the 2/3s empty stadium was an embarrassment.

There was also a lack of interest in the Saudi Pro League outside of the country. With hardly anyone tuning in and TV companies reluctant to pay for the rights.

Just 5,000 viewers tuned into watch the top of the table clash between Al-Hilal and Al-Ittihad on Canel+. That is less than what watched FC Rouen against Sochaux-Montbéliard in the Championnat National (2rd tier of French football) on the same channel.

Despite signing La Liga legends Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, the Spanish TV deal was worth just €60,000, whilst DAZN paid just $500k for the rights to screen games in the UK, Germany and Austria for 2023/24.

The rulers of Saudi Arabia do not like being embarrassed, and the Saudi Pro League is an embarrassment.

Low attendances and low TV viewing figures. It is clear that no one cares about the Saudi Pro League. And if no one cares it cares for the league, than it is no longer a useful tool in Saudi Arabia’s sportswashing campaign.

History repeating itself

The Saudi Pro League is facing the same issues as the Chinese Super League in the 2010s and the MLS in the 70s.

You simply can not start a league, splash loads of cash on ageing stars, and buy your way into popularity. Football, with its tribalism’s, does not work like that. A league can not simply become an overnight success just because they but some over-the-hill legends.

Add in the living and working conditions, and broken promises, the Saudi Pro League is just history repeating itself.

The downfall of the Chinese Super League was caused by the oversaturation of ageing foreign stars, who found themselves living in poor conditions with unpaid wages mounting up. Newly formed teams also suffered from “lack of competitive spirit“. It is a mirror image as to what has happened in Saudi Arabia in the past 12 months.

Summary

I expect some players to make the move late in the transfer window to the Saudi Pro League. But those players are only going to the Middle East because no other options materialised.

They will likely move across their on short term deals, to play a bit of football and get huge wages, before looking to engineer a way back into European football in 12 months

For many players, Saudi Arabia is not the destination of choice. It is a last resort. And that is why Saudi clubs have spent less combined then some Premier League teams!

Keenos

Arsenal playing long game in Ivan Toney transfer saga

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Over the last 12 months I have a love / hate relationship with Ivan Toney.

At the moment, I am in the “hate it” stage of our relationship. At 28-years-old, with his reported attitude problems and coming off a ban, I would not want us to be paying the £60m+ Brentford were demanding on him.

But then I also think of Ian Wright.

Wrighty joined The Arsenal in the early 90s at 28-year-old. He arrived with his own historical baggage and reports of attitude problems. He would go on to break our long-standing goalscoring record.

Ivan Toney was a notable absentee in the opening weekend of Premier League fixtures. He is also yet to appear for Brentford in pre-season having returned late having been with England over the summer. Reports are he was left out as he has made it clear to Thomas Frank that he wants to leave this summer.

There is now a stalemate between Brentford, Toney and any potential suitors.

Brentford want a huge transfer fee for a 28-year-old who has played little football in 12-months. Meanwhile Toney wants to leave and only has one-year left on his contract. We are now in a game of poker.

As we close in on transfer deadline day, the asking price for Toney will rapidily decrease. what was £60m+ is now reportedly only £40m. I would not be surprised if come the end of August, we are talking about a fee in the region of £30m. And that is a price I would love for Toney.

It is no secret that we are in the market for a new forward. And it is also no secret that Mikel Arteta is happy with Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus.

A new incoming striker would have to either be better than the pair, or be cheap enough that they could be competition and cover for Havertz, with Jesus then becoming competition and cover for the wingers. At £30m, Toney would be a good competition and cover for Havertz.

Toney’s acquisition would then see Jesus become the competition for Gabriel Martinelli on the left wing and cover for Bukayo Saka on the right that many have been crying out for. The Brazilian is two players in one, and he would continue to be an option upfront.

Role forward a year, and we may then decide to cash in on Jesus and sign a top quality left winger who is an improvement on Martinelli, with Gabi Martinelli then becoming the back-up winger / 3rd choice forward.

This can all only happen if a deal for Toney makes financial sense.

Toney has his aforementioned attitude problems. In every interview he has done in the last 12-months he has talking about his wish to leave Brentford. And just 4 goals in 17 games since returning from his ban perhaps shows a player who has some of his sharpness, motivation or enthusiasm.

When you consider that Spurs have spent £65m on Dominic Solanke (18 months Toney’s junior), then anything under £40m for Toney will be a great deal.

One stumbling block for Arsenal could be Manchester City.

Having sold Julian Alvarez for £80m, City no longer have cover for Erling Haaland. Toney could just as easily fulfil that role as he would be cover and competition for Havertz.

Whilst Man City would offer him a better chance of trophies, Arsenal would offer him more opportunities for minutes to stay in London.

The longer Toney stays at Brentford without playing, the cheaper he gets. And the cheaper her gets, the more interested teams will become.

Do Arsenal want Toney?
Will Toney want to be 2nd choice at Arsenal?
How cheap will Brentford go to?
How much will Arsenal be willing to pay?
Will Man City be a factor?
And could Eddie Nketiah go the other way?

Let us know your thoughts.

Keenos

Same Old Arsenal

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A comfortable victory. First 3 points of the season in the bag. Our £65m striker scores his first of the season.

Pre-game, a lot of the talk was about the lack of new forward at the club. In the pub chats, I stood strong on my opinion – anyone that comes in must be better than Kai Havertz, and as of yet no striker has moved clubs who I would have taken above Germany’s first choice.

As Havertz rose to head in our opener, I felt vindicated in sticking by my guns.

My thought was that had we signed Dominic Solanke, Ivan Toney, Ollie Watkins or Benjamin Sesko and they scored that goal, we would all be saying “what a difference a proper striker makes.”

Havertz goal was a delightful header. A proper strikers goal. Something that Olivier Giroud would have been proud of. And he has the added benefit of his all round game being superior to others who are simply just goal scorers.

I get why some fans would have been a little negative when seeing the starting XI. It contained no new players, with Riccardo Calafiori on the bench. But this is where we are with the squad right now.

Last season we pushed Manchester City all the way. So there is no need to fix something that is not broken.

It is always clubs lower down the table that make a huge number of signings. Those at the top, with world class squads, tend not to see a huge turnover in players. And those that come in need to be better than the players they are replacing.

Would Dominic Solanke at £65m or Julian Alvarez at £80m be an improvement on Havertz and Gabriel Jesus? I would say no. Meanwhile, Calafiori is a step up on Jakub Kiwior, and Mikel Merino is a better option centrally than Emile Smith Rowe.

In years gone past, we have started slowly as new players needed to get to grips with playing with each other. The advantage of signing so few was that everyone already knew their roles, and had the connections.

We saw Ben White and Bukayo Saka renew their relationship on the right – whoever the new England manager is needs to make amends with White. We have Oleksandr Zinchenko coming in off the left to make an extra man in midfield. Thomas Parety operating as a one man defensive midfielder. Gabriel Martinelli an outlet on the left. It was very much “same old Arsenal”.

It was interesting to see Zinchenko going off after 60 minutes to be replaced by Jurrien Timber rather than Calafiori.

The feeling is that Calafiori has joined to be a “Ben White” of the left and will eventually be our first choice left back. But with Timber and Zinchenko we have options to play more progressive full backs on either flank.

The sub was not an indication that Timber is ahead of Calafiori in the pecking order, but that different players will be used for different situations.

There will be games where we want to go White left, and either Timber or Zinchenko right. And other games where it will be Timber right, and Calafiori left.

One comment I heard in the ground which hit a note was about how Arteta wanted to “reduce the minutes” of players.

A criticism of Arteta is that he trusts very few, and he does not overly trust his squad. Whilst this is justified, it is also because some of the squad players (such as Smith Rowe and Nelson) are not good enough.

This season we will see Timber and White share minutes on the right, Zinchenko and Calafiori share minutes on the left. Partey, Merino, Declan Rice and Jorginho share minutes in those two midfield position. Leandro Trossard and Martinelli rotate on the left and Havertz and Jesus rotate up top.

It is only William Saliba, Gabriel, Bukayo Saka and Martin Odegaard who will all Start when fit”.

On the later two, you simply do not rest your best players. How often did Lionel Messi, Mo Salah, Cristiano Ronaldo et al get rested or rotated at their peak? The answer is rarely.

When you have special talents like Odegaard and Saka, you play them. And the more they play the more their bodies adapt to playing.

So we have the first win of the season on the board. We now have a week off until Aston Villa next weekend. And then before we know it we are on the cusp of the first international break of the season.

Enjoy your Sunday!

Keenos