I am going to stick my neck on the line – Arsenal will sign Declan Rice this summer, but not Moises Caicedo.

The Rice deal is one that is very easy to make.

Declan Rice wants to join Arsenal, Arsenal want Declan Rice, and West Ham will not stand in his way if the right offer comes in.

West Ham would have been hoping that Rice would be subject of a bidding war. They would have hoped that Arsenal, Chelsea, Bayern Munich and both Manchester clubs would have all been chasing his signature. But Rice has indicated that he wants to stay in London.

With Chelsea seemingly ruling themselves out of the running (or Rice potentially making it clear he does not want to re-join his boyhood club who are currently in turmoil), that leaves Arsenal as his only logical destination.

All that is really left is for Arsenal and West Ham to agree on the price.

West Ham are reportedly demanding around £120m, Arsenal are at £80. Expect a deal to be done for around £100m, with around £80m upfront and £20m in add-ons.

To make it clear, I am not ITK, nor do I pretend to be. This is just where I think we are at.

That then brings me on to Caicedo.

Whilst Rice is driving the move to Arsenal, Caicedo seems a lot more flexible on his destination. And that means he will go to whoever pays the most – both in transfer fee and wages.

Manchester United, Chelsea and Arsenal are all in the running to sign the Brighton player. And if Arsenal secure Rice, the desperation of Man U and Chelsea to complete the Caicedo deal will increase.

Both Man U and Chelsea will need Caicedo more than what Arsenal will, and that will lead them to be willing to pay more – both to Brighton, the player, and his agents.

A valuation of around £100m has recently been floated about. My feeling is this figure has been floated out by Brighton to see if they get any bites. And with the way Chelsea have behaved around transfers in recent years who can blame them?

After nearly joining Arsenal in January, Caicedo signed a new deal. That deal came without a release clause. But reports are that there was a gentleman’s agreement between Caicedo and the club that he could leave if an offer for between £70-80m came in.

If Brighton reject an offer of this size, they will have a very unhappy player on their books. One who would feel he has been lied too. Promises broken will lead to a lack of motivation.

I have felt (and again, this is based on nothing but intuition) that Arsenal will look to spend £150m on two central midfielders. We have other positions (right back, attacking) to also improve and anything over that £150m will mean less spent elsewhere.

With Rice our number one target, what we have left for the second midfielder will be the very simple equation of: £150m – Rice fee.

If we can get Rice for £80m (we will not), that would have left £70m t try and attract Caicedo. A deal for both could have been done.

The £80+20m deal mentioned above will leave around £50m in the pot for Caicedo. And with Chelsea and Man U also chasing the Ecuadorian, it will be near impossible for Arsenal to drive that asking price down.

So where does this leave Arsenal?

Well we will still be buying two central midfielders. We will simply just “move on to the next one”. And as we discussed earlier in the week, there are a few options out there.

Leading the way as an alternative to Caicedo is probably Romeo Lavia.

Caicedo and Lavia do not have too dissimilar attributes – both are high energy, have great tactical awareness and a good range of passing.

When you look at the work load Caicedo, Lavia and Thomas Partey get through n 90 minutes, it is clear that the Arsenal man is the best of the 3. Lavia is the worst and Caicedo in the middle.

This should not be surprise as Partey is the oldest, and played for the best team, Lavia the youngest, and played for the worst, and Caicedo in the middle of both.

Their completion %age tells a similar story, but also different.

Again, the order is the same – Partey, Caicedo then Lavia. But Lavia is a lot closer to the paid than he was in the per 90 minutes comparison.

This shows that Lavia is not too far from the others, he just did “less of the good things”. Not a surprise when he played for Southampton who finished bottom.

These two graphs together highlight that Lavia, Caicedo and Partey share a lot of similar attributes. The feeling will be that playing in a better team, Caicedo would be closer to Partey’s output, and Lavia closer Caicedo’s.

Lavia was the only bright spark in Southampton’s failed relegation battle and it would be a surprise if he does not return to the Premier League.

Manchester City have a buy-back clause for £40m, but this does not come into play until 2024. Southampton will see any offer above £45m-50m as a good deal.

If we have to spend north of £100m to get Rice over the line, than Lavia is a realistic cheaper alternative than Caicedo.

Lavia certainly the rougher diamond of the two, but that has to be expected as he is two-years younger.

With Partey going no-where this summer, the drop in quality from Caicedo to Lavia should not be an issue. And you would expect with better coaching at Arsenal, that gap will close.

If it is Rice and no Caicedo, rice and Lavia could work out just as well.

Keenos

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