Kai Havertz
Last night David Ornstein dropped the news that Arsenal were pursing Kai Havert
We all know Ornstein does not really deal with clickbait transfer speculation and only really comments if he has been leaked solid news from a club. So there is something in this.
Whether the deal materialises probably (as always) comes down to money.Chelsea reportedly want £70m+, which Arsenal will not pay. If a deal can be done for £50m then we might see it happen.
That lot in West London need to make player sales, and quick. Their deadline to bring in cash to declare it in this years financial accounts is 30 June. That could see them have to sell a few on the cheap.
Could Havertz be one of those? But it is also not as easy as “if Chelsea get £60m, that is £60m positive in their accounts”.
Due to transfer fees being amoritised, Chelsea still have around £45m of the Havertz transfer fee to declare in their accounts – £75m original fee (approx), over his 5 year deal is £15m a year.
They would have amortised £30m in the previous two financial years, with the next £15m going into this years accounts no matter what happens.
If they sell, the full remaining amortised value most go into the accounts of that period. So selling Havertz before 30 June will see a £45m expenditure hit their accounts.
If you consider that £15m is already factored into this years years budgeting, then the additional financial hit is £30m. So if Chelsea sell Havertz for £50m, they will only be generating £20m of positive cash for their accounts.
Personally, I think a deal could be done for £50m, with Chelsea happy to clear that £20m positive.
Whether Havertz is suitable for Arsenal is a longer blog for another day.
Declan Rice
As expected, there is lots of noise around the Declan Rice deal, but not much is seemingly happening.
This is not unusual for those football fans who have been around for more than 10 minutes.
When there is a lack of news, journalists (and clickbait twitter accounts) regurgitate the same old rubbish to drive the hits to their sites. And hits = ad revenue.
The silence gets filled with a vaccum of fake noise.
One minute it is “Arsenal will bid £90+10m” the another “journalist” writes “it will be £80+20m” and then a thirdt writes “the deal will be for over £100m”.
The truth is, none of them know what is going on and all are just taking a stab in the dark to write some content.
We always try hard to stay away from transfer speculation.
We might discuss the validity of a player, or try and predict who we might buy and sell. But we will always stay away from those clickbait headlines and pretending a deal is done when we have no knowledge.
And for those wondering, I have always said I think the deal for Declan Rice will be done at £80+20m.
This is based on no more than me thinking: Arsenal will start at £80m, West Ham at £120m. West Ham will come down to £100m, Arsenal will then counter with £80+20m giving West Ham their £100m.
If I am right, it does not mean I was privy to the deal. Just means I was a good guesser. Just like others who might guess right on fees or who we buy.
Throw enough darts at the board, one will hit the bullseye…
Fixtures list
At around 9am the 2023/24 fixtures list willl drop.
Ignore all of the fakes flying around social media. It happens every year and is just lonely kids making stuff up in the hope they go viral. Fact some mainstream media pick this up and run with it show how poor journalism is in this country.
And whilst the fixtures will be announced today, it will take them weeks to decide what games are on TV. And then it will be the usual rubbish of TV companies missing deadlines to announce games throughout the season.
The Premier League really should clamp down on TV companies missing the deadlines, which in turn lead to fans having to pay higher fares for trains.
A simple fine system, with that money going to clubs to subsidise away travel will resolve this.
Anyway, I predict we will get Luton Town away. It will be a Friday night. And Sky will try and recreate the Brentford match of a few years back.
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 