Morning all from a wet and cold London.
I joked in June that summer was over, it has since rained every single day. If Europe fancies sending some of the sunshine this way, we will not complain!
Out of nowhere yesterday was the news that Arsenal were interested in Brentford goalkeeper David Raya.
The move is one no one would have seen coming. The feeling was Mikel Arteta was happy with Aaron Ramsdale, and the Englishman has just signed a new contract. So what is the validity of the deal? And would Raya be replacing Ramsdale?
Validity of the deal
When I first read about the deal, the lead story was that Brentford had rejected an offer from Bayern Munich and that the deal was collapsing. “Arsenal are now interested” was a side note to that breaking news.
That made me think “the news is coming from Brentford’s end and they are using Arsenal’s name to push up the bid from Bayern Munich”. As we saw with the Declan Rice deal, clubs will used the media to try manipulate a deal in their favour.
Bayern Munich lost out on Kai Havertz and Declan Rice to The Arsenal. They would not want to lose a 3rd player to us. So my first thought was this was a very intelligent “leak” from Brentford, using our name to force up Bayern’s hand.
But then Ornstein tweeted, leading with Arsenal for Raya. And part of that message included that Matt Turner could be off to Nottingham Forest.
Matt Turner
This then builds a narrative that Arsenal had no interest in a new goalkeeper this summer, but then Forest came in for Turner.
We signed Matt Turner a year ago. He has not really seen much game time and, after a few shakey starts, could not even get into the Europa League team. With Champions League football now on the agenda, he was only likely to start in the League Cup.
His national teams number one, a second season sitting on the bench for The Arsenal could have been detrimental to his hopes of going to the next World Cup as the US first choice.
Another Premier League team coming in for him, offering him the number one spot, would be very attractive. Over the weekend has he informed the Arsenal management that he would like to go to Nottingham Forest. And the result is Arsenal are now in the market for a replacement.
Raya could well be one of the men we have sounded out to replace Turner. We were, of course, looking at him a couple of years ago. But Raya is too good to be a number 2. If he joined would he be replacing Ramsdale?
Replacing Ramsdale
Thomas Frank has said Raya “is worth £40m — he was one of the four best keepers in the Premier League last season”.
Who are the other 3 is the debate?
Liverpool’s Alisson Becker is probably the best goalkeeper in the league. I think most can agree on that.
Last season, Nick Pope was probably the most inform keeper – although his style of play would not suit us. You then have Ederson, Ramsdale, Jordan Pickford and Raya.
Note: I have included Pickford because if we say Pope is top 4, Pickford is England’s number one so has to be in the conversation.
I actually think your top 4 keepers could include any of those 4 names mentioned above, as well as Alisson.
Depending on who you support will bias your decision as to who you have.
Arsenal fans would pick Alisson, Ramsdale and two others, Newcastle fans Alisson, Pope and two more, and Man City fans Alisson, Ederson and two others.
Tottenham fans would leave Ramsdale out of their top 4, Man U fans would leave out Ederson and Sudnerland fans would not pick Pope.
Most would probably put Raya in their top 4, but that is because he is a neutral choice.
Whether Raya is better than Ramsdale is probably a blog in its own right! So what happens if we end up with both?
Return to a cup keeper
The football trend of the 2010’s was to have a cup keeper and a league keeper.
Top teams always played their second choice keeper in the League Cup. but this was then extended to also playing in the FA Cup.
In 2014, it was Lukasz Fabianski rather than Wojciech Szczesny in goal for the FA Cup Final. In 2015, Szczesny had lost his league place to David Ospina, so ended up starting the final. 2017 is was Ospina starting, whilst first choice Petr Cech sat on the bench.
Teams, including Arsenal, extended the game time of their number 2 as the decade went on, often playing the second choice keeper in Europe.
In 2016/17, Ospina would play all 8 of our Champions League games, despite playing just twice in the Premier League. Real Madrid, PSG, Manchester United and Barcelona were others to who played their second choice keeper in the Champions League during this period.
In more recent years, we have seen a return to teams playing their first choice in both the Premier League and Champions League, with a second choice playing in the FA Cup and League Cup.
If Arsenal had Raya and Ramsdale, you would have to think we would start one in the league and the other in the 3 cup competitions. It is the only way we would have a chance of keeping both happy.
How long we could last with one top keeper potentially playing a dozen games a season will have to be seen.
Personally I am not a fan of “job sharing goalkeepers”.
Final thoughts
I do not think we will get David Raya.
At £40m, his transfer fee is huge for a man who is not necessarily better than Ramsdale. And I do not like the idea of them job sharing.
But whilst Frank might value him at £40m, he could end up leaving for a lot less.
Raya’s contract run’s out next year and he has made it very clear he wants out of Brenford. In Mark Flekken they have already signed his replacement.
Like Rice, Brentford will be hoping for a bidding war for Raya (and we might be being used to manufacture one) that will drive up that price. But who would be the clubs in for him?
Munich are clearly in for him, but their loan offer has been rejected. Then you have these links to Arsenal.
Tottenham have already turned their back on Raya, signing some random Italian, whilst Man U have recently announced Andre Onana. Manchester City and Liverpool would be similar to Arsenal in that Raya would not be guaranted number one. Same as Chelsea.
An offer might come in from Spain, but Raya is settled in England – he moved to Blackburn aged 16.
I just do not see a bidding war materialising which could led to Brentford having to consider offers under £30m. At that point, I think we would be interested.
Enjoy your rainy Monday.
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 
I think there’s a bit of 2+2=5 going on.
Probably, Turner is of interest to Forest.
Probably, Raya is on our shortlist of goalkeepers (and probably quite high up)
And with that you can create a story. Does it mean we’ll buy a £40m goalkeeper? Still unlikely.
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Probably agree with that. We will have a list of goalkeeper targets. As you say Raya will be high on that list, but his price and him wanting to be first choice will likely mean a deal wont happen. I would not be surprised if we end up with Keylor Navas
on a free as short term cover to Ramsdale whilst Hein continues to develop
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Alas, I fear this may be why Runnarsson has been reintegrated to the squad. I hope I’m wrong.
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Runnarsson didnt play a minute in America. He has not been integrated back into the squad. He merely went to make up the numbers as Matt Turner got an extended break following his exploits for his country
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The valuation of players is not important in my honest opinion.
Valuations are a function of the market and the external environment when deals are done.
The ability of the player is more important. Two very good goalkeepers will greatly improve the team and could just guarantee the PL as long as Arsenal keep scoring as many goals as we did last season.
Go for it I say. Competition never hurts an athlete. It rather improves them.
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