On the morning of the season, it is time to have a little look at what our expectation level is for the forthcoming campaign.
No one could have predicted what we did in 2022/23. To go from 24 points behind the champions in 2021/22 to just 5 points behind last season was a fantastic rise, even if ultimately we ended up trophyless.
Going into this season, expectations will naturally be higher than the “finish top 4” that most of us would have said 12 months ago. But it is also important to be realistic.
Yes, we have spent big this summer, recruiting the likes of Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber. But we needed to go big to continue closing that gap on Manchester City.
Some will point to “net spend since 2018” in an attempt to put pressure on Mikel Arteta (and to make it seem like Pep Guardiola is successful on a shoe string), but that ignores City’s decade plus investment.
In 2022/23, their squad cost a combined £824m in transfer fees (net spend really means nothing!). Arsenal’s 2022/23 squad cost us £455m. So even with the £250m (if David Raya signs) spent this summer, our squad cost will still be a couole of hundred million behind Man City’s.
Anyone that says “if we do not win the title, then it is a failure for Arteta” clearly does not understand how much difference that £200m+ extra investment in City’s squad makes. It would be like adding Erling Haaland, Kevin de Bruyne and John Stones to the current Arsenal team.
Some are already saying Arteta should be sacked if he does not win the title. They are the same people that 24 months ago that they did not care he had won the FA Cup, it was all about top 4. Then 12 months ago said he should be sacked if we do not make top 4. Then when we made top 2, said that he should be sacked for failing to win a trophy.
These sort of fans will always change the narrative to suit their agenda. There agenda being that they want Arteta sacked. They would see finishing behind Man City as a failure, even if City went and got 95+ points!
I would always consider myself a level headed, realistic fan. I am never too optimistic, never too pessimistic.
League: Our minimum targer should always be top 4.
Whilst some might see that as a “loser mentality” having finished 2nd last season, it also shows a lack of respect for those other sides around us.
We had an unbelievable start to last season. And as good as we were, Liverpool were as equally bad. I do not expect for Liverpool to be as poor again in their opening 15 games of the season.
Post World Cup (14 games played, 24 to go), the “mini-league” read:
Man City – 57 points
Man Utd – 49
Arsenal – 47
Liverpool – 45
There was clearly not much between us, Man U and Liverpool after the World Cup. We could end up finishing 4th, but just 4 points off second. For me, that would not really be a failure.
Chelsea will also return stronger this season under Mauricio Pochettino.
Throw in Newcastle (and maybe even Aston Villa), and there are 7 teams that will be thinking they can get top 4. It is never been tougher to finish top 4 in the Premier League. And for that reason you can not start sacking a manager just because he finishes out the top 4 places.
Cups – I am always reluctant to say “a good cup run” or “win a cup”. This is due to the luck of the draw.
Say we get Man City away in the 3rd round of the League Cup and FA Cup 3rd round. Would it be failure to lose both? No.
Likewise, say we get lower league teams up until the Semi-Finals of the both the FA Cup and League Cup’s, and then lose to West Ham and Brighton, I would consider that a failure.
Losing to West Ham and Brighton is clearly a worse result than losing to Man City, so even if we got further in the competition, it is about who we go out too.
Europe – I see success in the Champions League for us this season as getting out of the group stages.
We are in Pot 2 of the Champions League, with the only real dangers in Pot 3 being AC Milan and Lazio. We would be very unlucky to end up in a group of Real Madrid, AC Milan and Union Berlin.
Then like with the cups, our progress will depend on who we face next.
Last year, for example, Inter Milan finished 2nd in their group. They then faced Porto, Benfica and AC Milan to reach the final.
Knockout stages of the Champions League is sufficient for this season, but if we do drop into the Europa League, I would expect us to win it.
We were excellent last season. I see this season as a year of consolidating our position.
Another top 4 finish, stay as close to City as we can, knockout stages of the Champions League. And if we pick up a cup on the way then brilliant!
What are your expectations for this season?
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 
My expectations are as follows:
PL: A title challenge.
CL: Quarterfinal.
FA/Carabao Cup: Win one, preferable the FA cup.
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Well said Keenos
An informative and as you say ‘Level headed’ take on where we were/are and want to be, I just replied to Gav’s post that I want our new signings to do well, beat Forest by more than 3 goals 🔝
Weekends off to a flyer
UTA
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Expectations? None. Last season was a surprise, a peasant one. This season will be tougher, maybe much tougher. Liverpool will be back, Chelsea will be back, Man United will be better. I don’t know about Tottenham. The loss of Kane can be devastating. For 22/23 there were some so called pundits that thought Spurs would win EPL. Hardly this season. If Arsenal end up top four it’s good. If they can make a good result in UCL, it will be even better. But no expectations, really. Football isn’t that important. Just for fun.
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ive just gotta get through today im stressed already and its the first game ha
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League – to be in with a chance with 5 games left
Domestic cups – as you say draw dependent
Europe – Quarter Finals at least. Apart from City, Real and Bayern do not see anyone with a stronger squad
But unless we are really poor would not want to see a change in manager if the above was not achieved. We have clearly come along way in a relatively short period of time and will take a few more windows to be on a level similar to City
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