We are unlikely to buy a replacement for Jurrien Timber.
Mikel Arteta recently spoke about the difficulty in replacing the versatile defender.
Timber plays across the backline, and you are not recruiting someone else to do that without spending big, big money. Money that Arsenal will not look to invest on temporary replacement.
I think we are likely to look at Takehiro Tomiyasu as being first choice cover for both Ben White and Olexsandr Zinchenko out wide, with Jakub Kiwior, Ben White and Rob Holding as the cover in the middle.
Arteta also rates Arsenal teenager Reuell Walters highlighy. Thre 18-year-old is developing nicely and could be called upon if we need further cover at right back.
White Saliba Gabriel Zinchenko
Walters Holding Kiwior Tomiyasu
With a week to go in the transfer window, our focus is 100% on exits.
Nicolas Pepe has begun to receive admiring looks from Saudi Arabia.
I am actually surprised the Saudi Pro League did not come in for him earlier. He seems like the perfect profile for what they have previously bought.
My theory is that they did make contact with his people early in the transfer window but were rebuffed. Pepe still had hopes of “making it” in Europe and preferred the challenge of playing in a relevant league above earning loads of money infront of one man and his camel.
With a move to another top European league not materialising, Saudi looks to be the only option. My bet is Al-Ittihad following Jota’s exit…
Next in the shop window is Folarin Balogun.
Not long ago I blogged about how I think the Balogun transfer will be a deadline day one.
Premier League clubs such as West Ham and Crystal Palace will waiting until late in the window in the hope we drop the price. But likewise, Arsenal will be waiting for deadline day to sell in the hope clubs become desperate and “pay whatever is needed”.
The fake-American has recently been linked with Chelsea.
This would be a surprising move considering the driving force for his Arsenal departure is not being a starter. Can I see Balogun getting in ahead of Nicolas Jackson or Christopher Nkunku (when fit again)? No.
But then if Chelsea offer him an 8-year deal on £100k a week, I am sure he will suddenly give up his wish to play regular first team football.
Balogun has shown that he does not have the heart for the challenge. Opting to not fight for his place at Arsenal. Opting to play for America rather than England or Nigeria. It is the easy option every time.
Sit on bench for Chelsea for 8 years and pocket £40m. I am sure he will enjoy the easy life.
Arsenal are still trying to find a buyer for Albert Sambi Lokonga and Nuno Tavares.
Both have recently been linked to lower Premier League clubs, but solid deals have not yet come to light.
Lokonga to Brighton is an interesting one.
Not too long ago, I compared Lokonga to Moises Caicedo. The aim of the blog was to highlight the difference between being a young, up and coming player at somewhere like Brighton against playing at Arsenal.
Brighton were able to give Caicedo the game time to work through kinks in his game and develop. Arsenal were unable to do similar with Lokonga. I wondered if in 2021 Arsenal had signed Caicedo and Brighton Lokonga, their careers thus far would have been the opposite of now.
Lokonga’s development would have massively benefited from playing week in, week out for Brighton, whilst Caicedo would have stagnated sitting on the bench at Arsenal.
Tavares has received admiring glances from a couple of Midlands teams – Nottingham Forest and Aston Villa most recently. Both seem to be put off by Arsenal’s asking price (reported to be £20m).
With both men on a fairly low wage, and with 3-years still left on their contracts, Arsenal are in no rush to undersell either, and a loan could be the likely outcome.
If no club meets our asking price, we will probably be happy to agree loan deals where 100% of their wages is paid and a small loan fee.
That loan fee will be around £1.5m for Tavares and £3m for Lokonga. Or what their 1-year amortisation value is.
We would then hope that after 12 months of performing well in the Premier League, there will be more interest (and therefore higher transfer fees) in 2024.
I can certainly see a situation where Brighton loan Lokonga, with an option to buy for £25m, and Aston Villa loan Tavares with an option to buy for £20m.
As for Rob Holding and Kieran Tierney, I think there exits are up in the air.
Holding may be kept as a back-up to the back-ups following Timber’s injury. He is not on high wages, we will not command a huge transfer fee, and Mikel Arteta is probably happy to keep him around as an extra defensive reinforcement.
He has been with us for 7 years and is settled in North London with his family. My feeling is he will only consider leaving us if it is another London club that comes in for him. It is basically up to Rob Holding whether he leaves or not.
As for Tierney, it is damning that Timber, Tomiyasu, Gabriel and Zinchenko have all played at left back for us this season whilst Tierney has not even been in the matchday squad.
Clearly Arteta does not fancy him, but we have also not had a bid come in that we deem acceptable.
With Lewis Hall joining Newcastle on a season long loan with an obligation to buy for £28 million plus £7 million in add-ons, that is one door shut. But that deal also shows why we are justified in holding out for £25m+.
The issue for Tierney is that not too many Premier League sides need a new first choice left-back. Those chasing Tavares are looking at him as their 2nd choice.
When you look at the Premier League, you get to West Ham in 7th as the first club where Tierney would start. They could become a real option if Aaron Creswell departs.
Next up would be Nottingham Forest in 10th and maybe Crystal Palace in 11th.
I think a bit like Balogun, teams might be waiting until the last minute to launch their Tierney bid.
Finally, Cedric Soares. I do not think he is going nowhere.
No-one seems to want him. And with 1-year left on his contract he might be happy to sit around and watch TV for 12 months. I suspect it will be a bit like last year where he gets a January loan move.
Enjoy your Thursday…
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 