The reported fee for Folarin Balogun is €40m. Or around £35m in Pound sterling. The feeling by many is that Arsenal are selling the striker on the cheap.
It is hard to disagree with that sentiment during a summer that has seen record spending in the Premier League and Manchester United splash £65m on an injured Danish striker with 9 Serie A goals to his name.
In comparison to Rasmus Hojlund, Balogun scored 21 league goals for Reims in Ligue 1 last season.
Balogun going for half the cost of Hojlund does feel like we are underselling him. But is that true?
Manchester United overpaid for Hojlund
For me, Manchester United massively overpaid for Hojlund. He is not a £65m striker.
Hojlund’s figures are not too dissimilar to a certain Nicklas Bendtner at the same age. The pair are very similar in terms of physique and playing style.
I think it is unfair to compare the fee paid for Hojlund to Balogun.
Chelsea signed Christopher Nkunku for £50m. The Frenchman has scored 58 goals in the last two seasons for RB Leipzig. You will struggle to find anyone who will make a case that Balogun is better than Nkunku.
We have to remember Balogun has only had one season of top flight football. Maybe had he gone out on loan again and scored another 20-goal haul, his fee would have been closer to what Chelsea paid for Nkunku.
Chelsea also signed the exciting Nicolas Jackson for around £32m. Not far off what Monaco are spending on Balogun.
I would say Jackson is comparable to Balogun.
Both men are 22-years-old and had their breakout season last year – Jackson playing in the tougher La Liga.
At €40m, Balogun will be the 5th most expensive striker transfer this summer (excluding the crazy Saudi Arabia transfers):
Harry Kane – €100m
Rasmus Hojlund – €75m
Chrisopher Nkunku – €60m
Matheus Cunha – €50m
Folarin Balogun – €40m
Lois Openda – €38.5m
Nicolas Jackson – €37m
The above highlights how much Manchester United paid for Hojlund. It also puts Balogun, Openda and Jackson at around the same level, which is probably fair.
Last season, Openda scored 21 in Ligue 1, the exact same as Balogun.
When you look at this summers forward signings excluding the Hojlund deal, I would say the €40m for Balogun is par.
No to the Premier League
Only two leagues in world football are splashing the cash this summer – the Premier League and Saudi Pro League:
Premier League – €2.3bn in arrivals
Seria A – €755m
Ligue 1 – €682m
Bundesliga – €662m
La Liga – €384m
(all figures in this blog taken from Transfrmarkt)
Once Arsenal make the decision not to sell Balogun to a Premier League club, what they can possibly receive in transfer fee drops.
The other top 5 leagues are filled with teams struggling financially.
Many clubs in those leagues need to sell before they buy, and they massively rely on receiving inflated fees from Premier League sides.
Clubs from Italy, Spain, Germany and France tend to sell to the Premier League these not, not buy.
Bayern Munich, PSG, Real Madrid and Barceloan aside, you will rarely see a Premier League player moving to the continent for big money.
Of the 10 most expensive players to depart the Premier League this summer for foreign shores, Balogun is 5th.
Harry Kane is the most expensive departure, and then the next 3 (Ruben Neves, Aleksandar Mitrovic & Fabinho) all signed for a Saudi Club.
If you exclude the Saudi deals (considering Balogun was never going to move there), Balogun is the 2nd most expensive Premier League departure this summer:
Harry Kane – €100m
Folarin Balogun – €40m
Moise Keen – €30m
Gianluca Scamacca – €25m
Christian Pulisic – €20m
Only 5 players have departed the Premier League for a European club for €20m or more.
Could we have attracted a bid from Brighton, West Ham or Crystal Palace? Maybe. But there is a reason they turned down a chance to sign him.
Sell on clause
I think with the Balogun deal, it was important to get some clauses inserted for when he moves again. And that comes with a cost.
You want a 50% profit sell on clause? You have to agree a lower upfront transfer fee. This is a fairly basic practise.
By looking to sell Balogun abroad, Arsenal would have accepted that they will receive a lower fee for him. But a good sell on clause means that we will profit again if (and when) he returned to the Premier League.
Balogun goes and smashes in another 20+ goals in France, backing up his first senior season, his value will increase. You can certainly see a team paying £50m for him next summer if he gets another 20 goals.
If it is a 50% sell on clause, Balogun moving for £50m will see an additional £7.5m enter our coffers.
Selling him to Chelsea this summer would have been a PR disaster, but in 12 months time, Monaco selling him to Chelsea and Arsenal getting £7.5m will soften the blow.
Considering the mess PSG are in with Neymar departing and Kylian Mbappe sulking, you can certainly see them coming in for Balogun if he has another good year.
Whilst we might not have got the super fee for Balogun some might have hoped, we should receive even more for him in the next 12-24 months.
When you look at the transfer in comparison to others, it is hard to argue against the €40m fee for Balogun being about right.
It is a similar feee to what Jackson and Openda went for, and he is the 5thmost expensive forward to move to a European side this summer. He is also the 2nd most expensive player to depart the Premier League fot a European side.
What this all highlights is Manchester United massivaly overpaid for Hojlund, and Arsenal got par money for Balogun.
Enjoy your Monday.
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 
A player’s transfer value is what other clubs are willing to pay for him.
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The deal for the 22-year-old United States forward is worth 40million euro (£34.3m) and also includes a sell-on clause of 17.5 per cent. Don’t forget o click on link.
https://www.sabcsport.com/soccer/news/folarin-balogun-completes-move-from-arsenal-to-monaco
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Really interesting, thank-you.
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