Following the West Ham game, the consensus seemed to be that Mikel Arteta was correct in resting most of his strongest XI, and that meant we would always struggle to beat a full strength West Ham team.
As usual, some fans went OTT with their criticism, saying that results against the Hammers, Lens and Chelsea showed we had gone backwards from last season. They seem to have forgotten about:
- Brighton – when we lost 3-1 at home in the League Cup. A worse performance by our 2nd string than Wednesday night.
- PSV – when we lost away in the Europa League. Not to disimilar to the Lens game
- Manchester United – when we lost 3-1 away to a poor United team. At least we took a point from Stamford Bridge
We also had games such as Sporting (both of them), southampton (both of them), Everton away, Brentford and home, Bournemouth and Aston Villa (last minute winners!) and those games against Liverpool and West Ham where we threw away a 2-goal lead.
Last year we were certainly not infallible, and we had many a game where we did not play great and failed to win.
There is also a feeling that we are not quite as danagerous an attacking outfit as last year. That we do not look as slick and clinical in the final 3rd. But is this true?
Goal scored
The most basic way of comparing if we have gone forward or backwards as an attacking unit.
After 10 games in 2022/23, we had scored 24 league goals.
In 2023/24, it is 23 league goals.
Just a single goal less scored this year in the league than last. you would expect that to be a lot bigger to have a noticable difference on the pitch.
So maybe it is that we are scoring as many, but not creating as much?
Expected goals
After 10-games last season, we had an xG of 20.30. This season our xG is 19.89.
That shows that we are have basically created level of chances this year as last. And that is why we have scored pretty much the same as last year.
Like with goals scored, you would expect if we were playing noticable worse in the final 3rd, there would be a huge difference.
So we are (almost) equaling last years attacking output despite
Gabriel Jesus being out
Last season, the introduction of Gabriel Jesus made us very exciting in attack. His movement and fluidity transformed us!
Gabi has started just 4 league games this season, so is it any surprise that we might not look as fluid in attack without our best striker?
Eddie Nketiah is much more of a “stay in the middle” type striker. We saw last season when Jesus was out that the front 3 were not quite as scintilating with Eddie up top.
That does not mean we are any less of an attacking threat, just that without Jesus that attack is different, a little more formulaic rather than off-the-cuff.
And Martinelli also missing
Whilst Bukayo Saka is easily our best forward, I think Gabriel Martinelli is our most exciting. He gets bums off seats with the way he plays.
Like Gabriel Jesus, Martinelli has spent some time in the medical room this season. He has started just 7 of the 10 games.
Martinelli has certainly not looked as sharp this season as last – one goal after the first 10 games of the season this season compared to 4 last. His struggle for form and fitness has made us a little less exciting in attack, even though we are clearly just as potent.
Bukayo Saka not 100%
On the other wing, Bukayo Saka has not quite looked 100% all season. Despite this, he already has 4 goals to his name (compared to 3 goals after 10 league games last season).
You have to think just how high the ceiling is for this team if we think that Jesus has been out injured, and Martinelli and Saka out of form.
If we have scored 1-less goal this season compared to last, just wait until these boys begin to hit their stride.
Starting slower
And I expect them to hit their stride in the 2nd half of the season.
Title winning teams tend to pick up pace in the title running. They aim to peak for the last 10-games of the season, not the first 10.
Last season, we started hard and fast, and then ran out of steam in the closing stages. City, meanwhile, started a little slower and did not hit top gear until the 2nd half of the season.
We certainly look like we are are playing in 3rd gear rather than 5th gear right now, and for me that is exciting as we are holding back our peak performances for the run-in.
Compare that to spurs who look like they are already playing at 100%, they will run out of steam a bit like we did last season.
A case for the defence
Despite conceding twice in 3 games already this season, we are better defensively this year than last with 8 goals conceded against 10 in 2022/23.
So we are potentially playing a little more cautiously than last season, a little less “gung-ho” and the result is just the 1 goal less scored and 2 less conceded.
Last season we conceded more than 1-goal a game. That is too much if you want to win the title. If we can concede less than 2022/23 whilst scoring a similar amount, we should be in a good position to win the league.
A few less 3-2’s, a few more 2-nils. I am happy with “boring football” that does not seem as attacking, yet generates just as many goals whilst conceding less.
11 different goal scorers
So how have we managed to score just 1-goal less than last season, whilst our front 3 have looked out of form and / or not fit? Mutiple goalscorers.
Arteta has continued with last seasons philosphy of having goals all over the pitch. We sacrifice a single scorer of a lot of goals for numerous scorers of many. This season we have already had 11 different goal scorers in the league.
Tottenham have had 8 different scorers this season, Manchester City 7.
We are the most unpredictable of the top 3 when it comes to scoring goals. They come from all over the park and from corners and set pieces as well.
The Arsenal have also scored more this season than Manchester City and Tottenham – a stat that might surprise you considering how Spurs have been praised for their free flowing attacking football.
This season was always going to be a little underwhelming compared to last seasons start.
The fact we are just 2-points and 1 goal down on last seasons 10 game total shows that we have a new normal.
24 points and 23 goals from the opening 10-games has us on target for 90+ points and 87 goals. If that is us going backwards, I look forward to when we click into top gear and start playing well.
Enjoy the game today to all those travelling up!
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 