A ‘winning machine’ - why Liverpool did not miss stars

That was the headline on the BBC following Liverpool’s 4-0 victory over Bournemouth that saw them go 5-points clear at the top of the league, despite Mo Salah being at the African Cup of Nations / injured.

There are 187 million reasons why they did not miss Salah.

Liverpool’s front 3 against Bournemouth was:

Luiz Diaz: £40m
Diogo Jota: £38m
Darwin Nunez: £74m

And then coming off the bench was £35m Cody Gakpo.

If you throw in Mohamed Salah, Liverpool’s forward options have cost them £225m. And that does not even take into account the add-ons. I would be surprised if too many other teams across Europe have spent more on their forward options.

So lets stop pretending that Liverpool were plucky underdogs and did well to thrash Bournemouth despite missing their key man. They have invested plenty in their forwards. And that is the difference between Liverpool and us right now.

In defence and midfield, I would say Arsenal and Liverpool are fairl equal – both in terms of starting players and squad depth. It is the forward line where you can see the difference in investment.

Our 6 forward options cost us just £71m – less than a single Darwin Nunez:

Gabrel Jesus: £45m
Gabriel Martinelli: £6m
Bukayo Saka: £0m
Leandro Trossard: £20m
Emile Smith Rowe: £0m
Reiss Nelson: £0m

Now whilst I subscribe to “it is not what you spend but who you buy”, Liverpool simply have more strength in depth to us up front. And that is mainly because of good investment overtime.

They signed Mo Salah in the summer of 2017. Diogo Jota joined in 2020 with Luiz Diaz arriving a year later. In 2022 they went big on Darwin Nunez, and Cody Gakpo completed the quintet in January 2023.

Liverpool’s investment has been consistent over a long period of time – driven by Champions League football and the finances that competition brings.

Since Mo Salah signed, Liverpool had qualified for the Champions League 6 times in 6 seasons. They had only qualified once in their previous 7. This year was the first time they had missed out in over half a decade.

Champions League football is worth in excess of £50m (and towards £100m if you make the final) of additional revenue.

In that same 6-year period, Arsenal did not make a single appearance in the Champions League. From 2017, we had 5 appearances in the Europa League and 1 with no Europe. This was the first time in over half a deacde that we got into the Champions League.

So over the last 6 years, we have earned around £300million less than Liverpool from our European exploits. And you can see that lower revenue when you compare the two teams front lines.

Shut your eyes a minute and imagine an Arsenal front line that had Saka (Salah) and Jesus (Nunez), and Martinelli (Diaz) but instead of Trossard, Smith Rowe and Nelson, we had Jota and Gakpo. I am sure we would not have had the misfiring games we have recently had.

Liverpool have not had “one big summer”. What Jurgen Klopp and his team do is constant improvements ever year, lead by clear succession planning.

The year before Sadio Mane left, Luiz Diaz came in, and the year before Roberto Firmino departed, Darwin Nunez was signed. This allowed them to have a year of settling into the squad before they were expected to have big impacts on the first team.

The top end (first XI) of our squad is now in a decent position. What we now need to be doing is upgrading on those fringe squad players that Mikel Arteta clearly does not trust. And this can only be done if we remain top 4 and increase our revenue over the next couple of years.

Replace Smith Rowe and Nelson with a single forward to create our own quintent of top forwards, all of whom Arteta has faith in. Playing Football Manager, it would look something like this:

2024: Sign top forward, sell Smith Rowe and Nelson
2025: Upgrade on Leandro Trossard
2026: Upgrade on Gabriel Jesus (he will be 29 by then!)

Come 2026/27, we then have forward line options of 25-year-old Martinelli and Saka, as well as the 3 new signings made over the 3 previous summers.

But you can only do this long term thinking if (a) we consistently qualify for the Champions League and (b) we stick with the current regeime like Liverpool have done with Klopp.

As Manchester United and Chelsea have shown, constantly chopping and changing manager means you can not have long term transfer plans, and you waste a lot of money on players who, in 18-months time, are surplus to requirements as the new manger does not want them.

For those who say “but Real Madrid change their manager often”. Yes, but Spain is a two team league, in which Madrid are the richest in. It is not a comparable scenario.

It is not just upfront we need this succession planning, but all over the pitch.

Next summer we need to replace Mohamed Elneny, Jorginho and Thomas Partey.

Whilst a lot of fuss has been made over the £105m we spent on Declan Rice, Liverpool spent nearly £150m last summer on 4-new midfielders. Rice is better than any that they have, but there next 4 is better than our 3 other central midfielders (taking into account Partey can not stay fit).

Finish top 4, we can then not only invest in another forward, but also a couple of new midfielders giving us further strength in depth (alternative option will be to purchase a new top left back and then utilise Zinchenko is a midfielder).

Now I know some of you will be itching to point out just how much we spent on Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang, Alexander Lacazette and Nicolas Pepe during the period since Sala joined Liverpool. And you are right, we have wasted nearly £200m in attacking talent that we then failed to get a transfer feee for when they departed.

As well as long term planning, Liverpool also rarely get a transfer wrong. they recruit consistently well. We are beginning to do this, and most of our “wasted money” signings came prior to the Edu / Arteta era. What we now need to do is build on that better recruitment.

In the last couple of windows, we have had to spend big to try and close the gap. We are getting there.

What we now need is to finish top 4 consistently and reinvest that additional Champions League revenue sensibly.

Keenos

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