In recent days, Gabriel Jesus has been linked with a move to the Saudi Pro League.
Now aged 27, Jesus was left out of Brazil’s 2025 Copa America squad and became a bit part player towards the end of last season for Arsenal.
Having joined the club from Manchester City as he sought out first team football, Arsenal may well be looking to change Jesus’s role in the squad with a new top striker incoming and the form of Kai Havertz in the middle.
Being relegated to a squad player and failing to make that Brazil squad may lead Jesus to make the decision that his top level career in Europe is over. His choices would either to accept becoming a Sylvain Wiltord type player at Arsenal, move for first team football at a lower level within Europe, or take the huge money on offer in Saudi Arabia.
Like the Chinese Super League before them, the Saudi Pro League targets players from South America and Africa who are playing in Europe. These guys have already made big upheavals in their lives to move continent, so will be more open to moving continent again.
Unlike European born players like Jordan Henderson, they are more likely to be able to quickly acclimatise to the new culture having already done it previously.
Gabriel Jesus’ departure will only occur if 4 criteria is met:
Arsenal to sign a new striker
At the back end of last season, Kai Havertz was in sparkling form playing down the middle. This saw Gabriel Jesus relegated to 2nd choice striker.
With Eddie Nketiah showing he is not top level, and almost certain to depart over the next 5 weeks, that leaves us with just the two strikers – Havertz and Jesus.
We need two top strikers to enable us to rest and rotate, and make in game changes. Jesus will only be allowed to leave if a new striker comes in.
Arsenal to sign a new winger
Even if a new striker comes in, Jesus still has a big role to play at the club.
In his new role, Jesus will still be 3rd choice striker. That becomes 2nd choice if Havertz returns to his deeper role. He is also cover and competition on the wing.
Jesus has spent much of his career both for Brazil and Manchester City on the left and right wings. Were he to no longer be playing week in, week out upfront, he would then come into Mikel Arteta’s thinking on both flanks.
On the left wing, it would not be too hard to make a case that Jesus would be a better option than Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard. And if Martinelli holds onto his starting spot, Jesus would be his natural cover and competition.
Over on the right, we have long been looking for cover for Bukayo Saka. Jesus, Martinelli and Trossard would provide this cover.
A new striker would mean that we then have a choice between 4 wingers for two positions. A nice place to be!
Were Jesus to depart, we would be back to 3 for 2 and would have to go into the market for a new winger.
Huge fee
As it stands, Jesus covers two positions at Arsenal.
He is 2nd choice striker, and also in the equation to start on the wing. It will take two signings to replace him. And both of those signings would need to be an upgrade on Jesus.
We have been heavily linked with Viktor Gyokeres and Nico Williams. Both would be an improvement on Jesus and would probably cost us £100-120m.
Whilst we would not expect to cover the full fee of two new incoming players, we would be looking to offset the huge potential outgoings.
From a PSR and accounting point of view, we still have £27m of Jesus’s £45m transfer fee to account for. Any profit in the 2024/25 accounts is any figure about the £27m (as the entirety of any un-amortised fee is must be accounted for in the same period a player leaves).
A fee of £55m has been quoted for Jesus. This will be a £28m profit in the 2024/25 accounts. Were Gyokeres and Williams to come in for a combined £120m, they would cost £24m for 2024/25.
I would expect as a minimum, any profit for Jesus would have to cover the 1st year amortisation costs of his replacements. So we are looking at north of £50m.
Pay his wages
Gabriel Jesus is reportedly on an eye-watering £265k a week. Whilst some might now question this decision, it was a decision that helped us return to the Champions League and become title challengers.
To compete with Manchester City, we need to compete for the best players, and that includes paying the best wages. Manchester City players, on average, are paid £146k a week. Our average is £119k a week. Jesus earns less than the likes of Jack Grealish, and not much more than Phil Foden.
Any club that signs Jesus would have to be able to offer at least pay parity – a player will never leave a club for a pay cut.
Arsenal do not want to get into a situation where we are paying supplementing the wages of players no longer at the club. We would be better of keeping Jesus rather than paying him £100k a week to play for someone else.
Luckily money is not an issue for Saudi clubs, and Jesus would probably expect to double his money if he moves.
What his wages do however is rule him out of any move to another European side. Very few will be able to offer him first team football and the money he is on.
Do I think Jesus will leave? My belief is we are not actively selling hi, but like with many of our squad players we will let him leave if a superior replacement is recruited, and the finances across both his outgoing and however comes in works in our favour.
Keep an eye on both Jesus and Thomas Partey as the summer goes on….
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 