Three years ago we bought Aaron Ramsdale for £24million. He established himself as first choice keeper in the team that finished 2nd and was named in the PFA Team of Year. After 2-years at the club, Ramsdale was valued at €€m by Transfermarkt.
On the face of it, £18m plus add-ons looks cheap for a keeper of Ramsdale’s quality. So what has happened?
Ignore the valuation
Whilst Transfermarkt valued Ramsdale at €40m, this is an algorithm based valuation. Ultimately, Ramsdale’s true value is based on what a team is willing to spend on him, and what we are willing to accept for him. That is £18m+ add-ons.
Little interest
Arsenal held firm with Eddie Nketiah and pushed our price up because we knew there was plenty of interest. When we rejected the bid from Marseille, we would have already had contact from Nottingham Forest and Crystal Palace.
There was very little interest in Ramsdale, and transfer speculation concerning him had been flat all summer. Links with Newcastle United was more driven by fans, and there was maybe one day where he was softly linked with both Wolves and Nottingham Forest. It was not until last weeks links to Southampton that things felt more concrete.
Transfers are simple, the more clubs interested in your player, the more you can hold out for a bigger fee or push that fee up. The less interest there is, the more you may well have to accept a lower offer. You will all realise this when coming to sell your car or house.
So why was there so little interest?
No one in the market for a keeper
We raised back in November about how selling Ramsdale would not be an easy task.
He is a decent keeper, but he would not walk in as number
Manchester City – Have Ederson, Ramsdale would be number 2
Liverpool – Have Alisson, Ramsdale would be number 2
Aston Villa – Have Emiliano Martinez, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Tottenham – Have Guglielmo Vicario, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Chelsea – Have signed 8 keepers under Todd Boehly. Who knows?
Newcastle – Have Nick Pope, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Manchester United – Have Andre Onana, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
West Ham – Have Alphonse Areola, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Crystal Palace – Have Dean Henderson, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Wolves – Have Jose Sa, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Fulham – Have Bernd Leno, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Everton – Have Jordan Pickford, Ramsdale would not be guaranteed number 1
Brighton, Bournemouth, Brentford, Nottingham Forest and the 3 promoted teams would have been the only sides where Ramsdale would have turned up and been number one. But many of those ruled Ramsdale at as they did not see him as a £20m upgrade on their current keepers.
So we end up in a situation where Ramsdale wants out, Southampton are the only club in for him, and we want to do what is best for the player. In the end we all agreed that £18m was the right deal.
Remember, Ramsdale is a keeper
Earlier in the summer, many fans, myself included, had Ramsdale’s pricetag down as £40m. I get why we all did. But realistically we were never going to get that.
Very rarely does £40m+ get spent on a goalkeeper. Infact, it has only happened XX times:
Kepa Arrizabalaga – £71.6m
Alisson Becker – £56m
Andre Onana – £43.8m
£40m would have made Ramsdale the 4th most expensive goalkeeper of all time. So we expected a mid-lower league team to sign the 4th most expensive keeper ever. These teams spend £40m on an attacker. They won’t spend it on a keeper.
At £18m, Ramsdale is the 5th most expensive keeper signing globally this summer behind David Raya, Giorgi Mamardashvili, Filip Jørgensen and Odysseas Vlachodimos. They joined Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea and Newcastle respectively, highlighting only those with money spend big on keepers.
Some might say “why didn’t Newcastle buy Ramsdale instead of Vlachodimos”. The Greek keeper has joined them as 2nd choice, and there is some PSR fraud involved in the deal.
Arsenal do the right thing
One thing I respect Mikel Arteta, Edu and Arsenal for right now is letting players leave to further their career.
Our senior management are all ex-footballers, so all know the situation of being at a club and not playing. This gives them the perspective of a player and we have shown over the last couple of years that we care about player welfare and their future.
The easy option would have been to say to Ramsdale “you have 4-years left on your contract, you are staying as 2nd choice” and block his departure unless a bid of £40m came in. But that would have been unfair on the player.
Like with Emile Smith Rowe, Eddie Nketiah and now Ramsdale, the door is open for players to depart who are considered key to Mikel Arteta’s plans. And that in turn makes us more attractive to players.
Not played for a year and wanting out
Ultimately, Ramsdale had lost his place a year ago to David Raya. Some of you will still argue until you are blue in the face that it was the wrong decision. Get over it.
So we had a 2nd choice keeper that has barely played in the year. He is on a decent wage. He wants out, and we do not want to block him from leaving. And there is very little interest in him. All of this would see his transfer fee drop.
I expect some will say “this shows Arteta bombs players values”. What do you want Mikel to do? Play an inferior player so he retains his transfer value despite it potentially costing the team points? It is the same as when fans demand he play youngsters so that they increase in value.
We are a title challenging team. We are not a Chelsea or Brighton who look to develop players to sell for a profit. We look to put out world class players and challenge for honours. Get your head in 2024.
Finally…
£18m is a profit, despite the “net loss” of £6m.
Ramsdale had been at the club for 3-years, meaning 3-years worth of his transfer fee had been amortised. He currently has a book value of £9.6m. So we will show a £14.4m profit in the accounts this year on him.
Add in Emile Smith Rowe and Eddie Nketiah, and that is £50m of pure profit on player sales this summer. That will go a long way to re-balancing the books (remember we have been a loss operating business for the last half a decade!).
So yes, £18m might be low, but we have still profited on the sale, and done the right thing for Ramsdale. We have add-ons in the deal and a sell-on clause. If he performs well over the next couple of years for Southampton, and pushes for that England number one spot, a big move might be on the cards again. And at that point we make more money!
Enjoy your Friday
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 
Hard to disagree with your analysis. Although I think Buffon went from Parma to Juve for an absolute cartload in the Parma Tansi times, didn’t he?
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Buffon went for €52.9 million. In those days, that was around £32m.
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