Yesterday, I blogged about how a new left back is not essential to Arsenal in January. In Jurrien Timber, Takehiro Tomiyasu and Oleksander Zinchenko, we have plentiful options. So what business do I expect us to do?

New striker

Whilst I do not think that a new striker will dramatically change our fortunes, I think it is becoming obvious that we need someone who is better than Eddie Nketiah, and potentially better than Gabriel Jesus.

The issue, as always, is who? Manchester United and Chelsea have been chasing a new striker for years and have yet to solve the conundrum, spending hundreds millions on sub-par performers. There is clearly a lack of top strikers in world football right now.

Victor Osimhen is clearly a star, but is unlikely to be available in January. Players of his stature tend to move in the summer window. Considering Napoli’s demise this season (currently 7th), I think they will likely cash in on him in 6 months.

Osimhen would dovetail nicely with Jesus, giving us two very good options down the middle. Jesus will then provide further cover outwide and could even be an option in the role similar to what Julian Alvarez undertakes for Manchester City.

The question for fans is would you sacrifice a new striker in January to get Osimhen in the summer?

Beyond Osimhen , the only other name on peoples lips is Ivan Toney.

Toney is still banned for a couple of weeks, although he has been back in training for some time. Questions will be asked how quickly he refinds full form and fitness having missed 8 months of football.

I think it will either be Toney in January, or we will keep our powder dry and go big for Osimhen in the summer.

Midfielder

Declan Rice has been an absolute machine this season, but at some point he will have a drop off in levels of play.

Thomas Partey is the obvious man to come in for him, but there is a possibility he might depart in January. Veterans Jorginho and Mohamed Elneny will likely depart in the summer (both have contracts expiring). That means across the enxt two transfer windows, Arsenal will need to sign at least one, and maybe two (if Partey departs) midfielders.

Douglas Luiz is the man I would want to be Partey’s long term replacement – the Brazilian can play both as the sole defensive pivot and further forward as a defensive minded alternative to Kai Havertz. Aston Villa’s form this season will probably delay that transfer until the summer.

Martin Zubimendi risks being one of those players that is linked to us every window. Considering his well known release clause, you have to think a move would have happened by now.

There are also a few Brazilian lads getting linked to us.

André Trindade feels a bit like Danilo (who joined Nottingham Forest). His agents are using us to get his name in the British press in the hope a Premier League club moves for him. Meanwhile, Gabriel Moscardo is a raw talent and would probably be the “3rd chocie midfielder” repalcing Jorginho/Elneny, rather than coming in to replace Partey as Rice’s back-up.

The last name I see mentioned a lot is Fulham’s João Palhinha. I am not sure Arsenal would look to spend big on a fella that turns 29 at the end of the season.

My gut is we will only move for a cnetral midfielder if Partey departs. The preference would be Douglas Luiz, but that will be a hard move to make. What will probably end up happening is we encourage Partey to stay for another 6 months, and he can depart in the summer alongside Jorginho and Elneny. Douglas Luiz and Gabriel Moscardo incoming…

Defensive options

I have already ruled out us signing a new left back due to having 4 full backs (3 of whom can play left back). However, many of those ITK reliable journalists have mentioned that a new defender is high on our list of “wants”.

The result will probably mean a 4th centre back coming in, which will also allow for Jakub Kiwor to become an option at left back.

I rate Kiwor highly. He has proved himself as a decent performer, although his game time has been limited. The Pole has been linked with a move away from the club to Napoli.

Whilst I do not think that move away will happen in January, you could maybe see a situation where his future gets discussed if we are going for Oshimen in the summer. Kiwor could knock £30m off the asking price.

We are reportedly in for Sporting’s Goncalo Inacio. But so are Liverpool. The Portuguese centreback is one of the most in-demand defenders in football. Inacio’s teammate, Ousmane Diomande, has also been linked with us.

It will be tough to recruit someone as Gabriel and William Saliba is our first choice partnership, and the pair are amongst the best in Europe. Anyone coming in will be doing so to sit on the bench.

Whilst this works for Manchester City, they compensate lack of game time with huge wages. I can not see us paying someone £150k a week to sit on the bench.

Kiwor is the ideal centreback to do the job as a 3rd choice, young and has taken a big step up. I am not sure the likes of Inacio will be as happy to make that move. We also still have Ben White, Jurrien Timber and Tomiyasu as options to repalce Saliba were he to get injured.

I guess the unknown is Saliba’s back injury from last season.

As we saw with Thierry Henry, players rarely fully recover from back problems, and the injury could blight Saliba’s career. If he is currently playing through the pain, or pilled up, we might be looking for top quality competition which will allow us to rest and rotate Saliba, allowing the injury to heal.

Conclusion

This could be a frustating transfer window for Arsenal. It might feel like we do not have a plan, but the situation is complex.

Do you go for Toney in January and risk missing out on Osimhen in the summer? Does a new defensive midfielder only come in if Partey leaves? And what if we can not pry Douglas Luiz away from Villa? And the defence is a headache as we will be looking to bring someone in who is quality, but happy to sit on our bench.

One thing is certain, I have full faith in Edu, Arteta et al to make the right decisions for The Arsenal.

Keenos

I remember when we signed Olexsandr Zinchenko, the feeling was that the Ukrainian was seeking pastures new due to being fed up with playing left back.

With speculation surrounding Granit Xhaka’s long term future, and Thomas Partey’s questionable injury record, it was thought that the technically gifted full back was coming in to play a similar role as the one he undertakes for his country – as a central midfielder.

Injury to Kieran Tierney meant that he would begin his Arsenal career as a left back – and Mikel Arteta looked to get the best out of him by introducing the “inverted full back” to the Premier League.

18 months on, and whilst Zinchenko has performed well in the position, he has also shown a defensive fragility that other teams have looked to exploit.

This defensive fragility has led many to state that we need to be in the market for a new left back in January, but those calling for this are behind the curve ball. Arteta and Edu were aware Zinchenko’s issues in the summer.

They recognised that whilst Zinchenko was a great option in games at home, against lesser sides where we dominate possession, he could be exploited in the bigger games. They also realised that Tierney was not the answer as a more “defensive” option as he lacked the passing attributes needed to play in Arteta’s system.

To resolve the issue, Jurrien Timber was signed for £34million.

The Dutchman could play in any position across the back four and has a great balance to his game. Fantastic in defence, he also excels on the ball.

Timber’s recruitment would mean Arteta had 4 full back options available to him: Zinchenko, Ben White, Timber and Takehiro Tomiyasu.

Timber and Tomiyasu both provide Arteta that option of playing a more defensive minded full back at left back. The pair, alongside Ben White, also fulfil the “4th centre back role” with ease.

Unfortunately, Timber limped off on his debut against Nottingham Forest, with it later confirmed he had suffered an ACL injury on his right knee which would require surgery and keep him out of the game for a “period of time”.

Whilst he is seemingly ahead of schedule – expected to return to full training towards the end of this month – I would ber surprised if we see him in the Arsenal first team until late January. Players who suffer ACL injuries also tend to suffer a further injury as they return to football.

Tomiyasu’s Arsenal career has been stunted by injuries, and he picked up yet another calf injury in early December. Tomi is expected to be back in the middle of the month, just in time to fly out to Qatar for the 2023 Asia Cup.

If Japan make the final, he will miss 4 Premier League games: Crystal Palace (H), Nottingham Forest (A), Liverpool (H), West Ham (A). The hope will be that he gets through those games unscathed and that from Burnley to gthe end of the season he stays fit.

And this then creates the conundrum of needing a new left back.

As stated above, we have 4 left backs, all of whom offer something a little different. Do we really expect us to go out and buy a 5th full back?

Anyone that comes in would have to be a better option than Tomiyasu and Timber as a more defensive option to Zinchenko. That sort of level player will cost a lot of money, and will take some time settling in to a new club, new tactics and (possibly) a new country.

Were we to look at Premier League full backs (which will help someone settle a lot quicker), there is no one that really stands out as better than what we have.

By the time you get past the “already at a top club” players, you quickly end up on the likes of Pervis Estupinan (returning from injury), Antonee Robinson (average), Tyrick Mitchell (worse than average) and Aaron Hickey (btec Tierney).

Estupinan is the only Premier League full back that I would be interested in, but he is very similar to Tierney in the way he stays outwide and huge the bye-line. We dumped Tierney because he was unable to be involved in a narrower build up play. I am not sure Estupinan would be a better option than Tomiyasu.

We should not be looking to spend big on another left back when we have 3 that will all be better options than the new incoming one. Our issues at left back is caused by injuries. They are solved with time passing and players getting back to fitness.

“What about a short term option” is often said in January by kids who play far too much Football Manager.

Any left back that would be available on a 6-month loan deal in January is clearly not going to be good enough for The Arsenal. Why would another team let go a Champions League level full back on loan? It just will not happen.

As always when I hear fans crying for a certain position, I wil lalways ask the same question – who do you want to come in? And with the left back position, I doubt too many can be named that are better than Tomiyasu, Timber and Zinchenko, and would be available in January.

Feel free to name them in the comments…

Keenos

Happy New Year!

It shows how high Mikel Arteta has pushed the bar of expectation that we are looking at the 2023 calendar year as a poor 12 months for The Arsenal.

We finished the year with a whimper. A defeat to Fulham which denied us being top of the table on New Year’s Day. That followed a defeat at home to West Ham United.

Back to back defeats lead to the usual over the top reaction. Fans saying that they “will not be spending more on this rubbish in 2024” and booing the team at the final whistle. And this is my issue with many of our moaning fans.

When we are playing brilliant, top of the league, they take to social media and complain that they can not get tickets. We then have a slight downturn, more tickets become available, and they stand their saying things such as they will not be going anymore.

I have long maintained that the biggest ticket problem at The Arsenal was that we were playing good. And those fans that abandoned us in our truly tough years wanted to start going again. The recent defeats have proved me right, and hopefully when those demanding Arteta Out do not come back. Leave the tickets to the fans that will go through thick and thin. That love Arsenal whether we are top of the table or 13th. Only want to go when we are top? Do not bother turning up at all.

The reality is, we are a 72-75 point team right now. That is a solid top 4 team (average across Premier League seasons is 71.5), and is that not what we all demanded 18 months ago? A return to us being regulars in the top 4 again and then mounting a title challenge?

The first half of last season we were unbelievable good. This lead to some fans expectation level going through the roof. Many football fans are naturally bi-polar – everything is either absolutely fantastic or it is the worst they have ever seen. That first 19 games saw some of our fans hit the highs.

We then dropped off in the 2nd half of the season, and have rebuilt in the first 19 games of this season:

First 19 games of 2022/23: 50 points
Last 19 games of 2022/23: 34 points
First 19 games of 2023/24: 40 points

For me, what this breakdown does is highlight that the team was playing ahead of where it should have been in the first half of the season. We then dropped off a bit and finished 2nd. You take the last 19 of last season and the first 19 of thise (takes you up to the Fulham game), we gained 74 points.

I am not going to throw my toys out of the pram because we are only a 72-75 points team right now. And that form can not be when we begin considering sacking a manager – do we really want to turn into Manchester United? Going through managers every 18 months and each new one coming in taking us backwards.

Some will say “but we spenmt so much in the summer. We should have moved forward”. And we have moved forward from the last 19 games of last season.

The commenting about how much we spent also does not take into account how much others have spent – mainly Liverpool and Manchester City. And not just how much they have spent in the summer of 2023, but over the last 5 or 6 years when they have had Champions League football, and we have been in the Europa League.

That drop is worth around £70-80m in revenue a season. That is £70-80m more they have been able to spend on wages and transfer fees over the last half a decade. It should not be surprise that we are still behind on the pitch considering that investment.

We are catching up, and last summer we spent big. But so did Liverpool.

All the noise is “Arsenal spent £105m on a midfielder”, but Liverpool spent £145.4m on 4 midfielders! And you only have to look at their attack options against Newcastle to see the gulf in investment in the clubs.

Gabriel Jesus, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard and Reiss Nelson cost us a combined £72million.

Mohamed Salah, Darwin Nunez, Luis Diaz, Cody Gakpo and Diego Jota cost over £225m. Should it be any surprise that Liverpool have more attacking options when they have spent over 3 times as much on forwards as us?

This highlights just how much we are still in the building stage. Our next step is to get players at the level of Gakpo and Jota to back up Jesus, Saka and Martinelli.

Last summer was not a summer where we spent big to take us champions. It was a summer where we spent to solidify our position in the top 4. And that is something we are looking like doing.

What we now need is another 2 or 3 summers like last summer. Multiple years in a row of Champions League football, and investing the additional revenue into the club – buying better players than what we have now, continually improving the squad.

And we will have ups and downs, some transfers we will get rightm others we will get wrong. But proper fans stick by the team. They do not bail at the first sign of trouble.

If you spent New Year’s Eve demanding Arteta out, throwing your toys out the pram and saying you no longer have an interest in going to a game again, then please never comment about ticketting issues again.

The majority reading this are like me. You stick with the club through thick and thin. It is the minoirty making a lot of (loud) negative noises. They will say they are just holding the club to a high standard, that they will not accept things not being good enough. In their minds, it is champions or failure. There is no middle ground.

And they do not seem to understand that football is not just about your team being champions – the league would not maintain 92 teams if that was the case.

Love The Arsenal for The Arsenal, not because of the trophies. Go when times are good, go when times are bad. 

I bet in this second half of the season, we see succesful ballot applicants increase. Hopefully that means more fans that will go rain or shine getting tickets, and we lose those that only want to turn up on a sunny day.

My final thought is if back to Liverpool. They have only gained more than 75 points on 5 occassions in the last 14 years. If we finish on 75 this season, it will really not be a bad total. Just not good enough to win the league.

Enjoy your first day back at work!

Keenos

Our fantastic range of Arsenal fleece blankets!https://t.co/SFrGVBAZww pic.twitter.com/hvcgolB022

— Kick Off Merchants (@KOMerchants) November 30, 2023