Category Archives: Arsenal

Kai Havertz, Declan Rice and the fixtures list announced

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Kai Havertz

Last night David Ornstein dropped the news that Arsenal were pursing Kai Havert

We all know Ornstein does not really deal with clickbait transfer speculation and only really comments if he has been leaked solid news from a club. So there is something in this.

Whether the deal materialises probably (as always) comes down to money.

Chelsea reportedly want £70m+, which Arsenal will not pay. If a deal can be done for £50m then we might see it happen.

That lot in West London need to make player sales, and quick. Their deadline to bring in cash to declare it in this years financial accounts is 30 June. That could see them have to sell a few on the cheap.

Could Havertz be one of those? But it is also not as easy as “if Chelsea get £60m, that is £60m positive in their accounts”.

Due to transfer fees being amoritised, Chelsea still have around £45m of the Havertz transfer fee to declare in their accounts – £75m original fee (approx), over his 5 year deal is £15m a year.

They would have amortised £30m in the previous two financial years, with the next £15m going into this years accounts no matter what happens.

If they sell, the full remaining amortised value most go into the accounts of that period. So selling Havertz before 30 June will see a £45m expenditure hit their accounts.

If you consider that £15m is already factored into this years years budgeting, then the additional financial hit is £30m. So if Chelsea sell Havertz for £50m, they will only be generating £20m of positive cash for their accounts.

Personally, I think a deal could be done for £50m, with Chelsea happy to clear that £20m positive.

Whether Havertz is suitable for Arsenal is a longer blog for another day.

Declan Rice

As expected, there is lots of noise around the Declan Rice deal, but not much is seemingly happening.

This is not unusual for those football fans who have been around for more than 10 minutes.

When there is a lack of news, journalists (and clickbait twitter accounts) regurgitate the same old rubbish to drive the hits to their sites. And hits = ad revenue.

The silence gets filled with a vaccum of fake noise.

One minute it is “Arsenal will bid £90+10m” the another “journalist” writes “it will be £80+20m” and then a thirdt writes “the deal will be for over £100m”.

The truth is, none of them know what is going on and all are just taking a stab in the dark to write some content.

We always try hard to stay away from transfer speculation.

We might discuss the validity of a player, or try and predict who we might buy and sell. But we will always stay away from those clickbait headlines and pretending a deal is done when we have no knowledge.

And for those wondering, I have always said I think the deal for Declan Rice will be done at £80+20m.

This is based on no more than me thinking: Arsenal will start at £80m, West Ham at £120m. West Ham will come down to £100m, Arsenal will then counter with £80+20m giving West Ham their £100m.

If I am right, it does not mean I was privy to the deal. Just means I was a good guesser. Just like others who might guess right on fees or who we buy.

Throw enough darts at the board, one will hit the bullseye…

Fixtures list

At around 9am the 2023/24 fixtures list willl drop.

Ignore all of the fakes flying around social media. It happens every year and is just lonely kids making stuff up in the hope they go viral. Fact some mainstream media pick this up and run with it show how poor journalism is in this country.

And whilst the fixtures will be announced today, it will take them weeks to decide what games are on TV. And then it will be the usual rubbish of TV companies missing deadlines to announce games throughout the season.

The Premier League really should clamp down on TV companies missing the deadlines, which in turn lead to fans having to pay higher fares for trains.

A simple fine system, with that money going to clubs to subsidise away travel will resolve this.

Anyway, I predict we will get Luton Town away. It will be a Friday night. And Sky will try and recreate the Brentford match of a few years back.

Keenos

Arsenal put finishing touches on pre-season plans

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In the last couple of days, the finishing touches to Arsenal’s pre-season have been put in place.

Less than a month from today, we face Nurnberg in Germany.

This season we will begin our pre-season in German. The squad will head to Adidas headquarters in July for a training camp.

Our first stage of pre-season will culminate with the game against Nurnberg – the Adidas headquarters being on the edge of the city.

We then head out to America to take on the MLS All-Starts.

The game will take part in Washington DC, with the MLS team managed by the D.C. United head coach. Some fella called Wayne Rooney.

A certain Lionel Messi might an appearance…

Just two days after we face the MLS All-Stars, we face Manchester United in New Jersey.

It was around this time in 2022/23 that I knew we had a good team.

In our second game in America last season, we beat Chelsea 4-0. We were unplayable on the day with goals from Gabriel Jesus, Martin Odegaard, Eddie Nketiah and Bukayo Saka.

Mikel Arteta will be hoping we put out a similar statement of intent against Man U.

The American tour concludes with our first visit (I think) to Stan Kroenke’s SoFI Stadium in Los Angeles.

Expect a 70,000 sell out as we take on Barcelona.

This will only be Barcelona’s 2nd friendly of pre-season against our 4th, so expect us to be a couple of weeks ahead in terms of fitness.

After 7 games in 3 days, we say goodbye to the US and return to London Colney for the last couple of weeks of pre-season.

In our sole friendly in Islington, we take on Monaco in the 2023 Emirates Cup.

It looks like the Emirates Cup will no longer be tournament format, and will just be a one-off game against Monaco. I also can not find evidence of the women’s team participating this year.

Pre-season is rounded off by that glorified friendly – the Community Shield.

We face Manchester City in the traditional English season curtain opener; a repeat of the 2014 fixture when we ran out 3-0 winners.

I never think too much can be read into this fixture. Last season Liverpool demolished City 3-1. The year before Leicester Ciit won it.

A team has not won the Premier League having won the Community Shield since 2018.

Stretching back more than 20 years to 2001, only six teams have won the title after lifting the Community Shield.

I always feel you can not read too much into pre-season.

I have seen teams perform brilliantly, and then not take that form into the regular season. Likewise, sides have looked poor in pre-season but then come the big Premier League kick off have been brilliant.

It is almost always a case of if you perform well, you put a lot of weight into the performances. You perform poor, that it is just pre-season, just the Community Shield.

I want us to get the season off to a winning start. Winning the Community Shield will be the way to do it.

Let us know in the comments if you plan to watch Arsenal abroad this summer…

Keenos

With Saliba signed, what is Arsenal’s next defensive move?

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Last week we spoke about how the William Saliba contract negoations could delay our defensive recruitment this summer, and that is was essential for Edu and the team to quickly get the situation resolved.

Edu must read our blogs because 48 hours after we hit publish, it was announced a new deal for Saliba.

So what do we expect to now happen?

No new central defender

Arsenal were always looking at a defensive reinforcement this summer. But just the one.

It was either someone to cover Saliba in he centre of defence, or an extra full back that would allow Ben White to play centrally if required.

The plan last season (is it now last season or still this?) was to have White as Saliba’s covver, and Takehiro Tomiyasu coming it at right back.

Saliba and Tomiyasu both getting injured at the same time led to Rob Holding coming into the centre of the defence, and the gulf in class was startling.

Holding has been a great servant to the club, but his attributes do not make him a suitable replacement for Saliba.

With Saliba’s new deal, and the recruitment of Jakub Kiwior, the plan for next season will be the same as this – White to cover Saliba.

And that will mean no new central defensive signing.

New full back

The expectation is Kieran Tierney will be sold. Tomiyasu will then become first choice cover at both right back and left back.

to then avoid being in the same situation as this season, we will look to recruit a 3rd right back into the squad (who will become 2nd choice right back if Tomiyasu is on the left).

Ivan Fresneda certainly has the attributes to be a like for like cover for White. With a reported £17m release clause, it is a deal we could get done quiet quickly.

We have also been heavily linked with Timothy Castagne. The Leicester City full back is also available at around £17m.

Castagne would bring 3 years of Premier League experience, as well as a further 3 in Serie A.

What makes Castagne attractive is his versatility.

Predominantly a right back, the Belgian has played 75 games on the left flank. His attributes are not too dissimilar to Tomiyasu, and his recruitment would see us having two full backs that are comfortable on either side.

I think at the time of writing, Castagne could be the deal that is done.

And do not forget about Declan Rice

Going into the season with 3 specialist centre backs would be a risk.

Looking at the defensive group, we would have 3 central defenders and 4 full backs, with two of those full backs able to play centrally.

And then we have Declan Rice.

Some pundits have often thought that in a better team, Rice would end up as a central defender.

Whilst I do expect we have bought him to replace Granit Xhaka further up the field, it can not be ignored that he can also play in the centre of the defence.

In an emergency, you can certainly see Rice playing in the middle of our defence and Jorginho or Emile Smith Rowe playing in the 8.

3 dedicated central defenders might feel short, but we would actual have 6 centreback options (if we sign Rice):

Saliba, Gabriel, Kiwior, White, Tomiyasu, Rice.

Tying up the Saliba contract so quickly is great news. It means that we now know where we are going into next season, and can accelerate or plans for defensive reinforcments.

Expect deals to happen quickly.

Keenos