Category Archives: Arsenal

Arsenal have “zero PSR concerns” despite Man City judgement

The biggest side-story to come out of the Manchester City judgment is how “Premier League clubs with high levels of borrowing are now in danger of breaching Profitability and Sustainability Rules.”

Arsenal have been made the poster boy of the statement, with many journalists going onto point out that we “have borrowed more than £200m made up entirely of shareholder loans.”

The insinuation is then that we have found a loophole within the rules to find our rise back to title challengers, and that we are hypocrites for our stance against Manchester City. But this is not true, and to tell the story, we need to go back to where it begun.

The stadium build

As with every club that builds a new stadium we required bank loans to do so.

In 2007, we refinanced these into a new series of loans and bonds, spreading the debt over the next 25ish years. At the time the Bank of England base rate was 5%, and our average bond interest rate was 5.14%.

2020 refinancing

In the late 00s and early 20s, borrowing was dirt cheap. The Bank of Interest base rate went to as low as 0.1%. And then Covid hit which had many experts predicting interest would sharply rise (and it did). KSE then took the chance to refinance our debt.

KSE took a loan out themselves, and in turn loaned Arsenal the money to pay off the existing loan from the stadium including early repayment charges. The net gain was that whilst Arsenal would owe more money due to having to pay the charges, our total to be repaid, including interest, would drop.

Refinancing is a common practise in both business and life. Why pay more for interest than you have to? It is like changing mortgage provider to get on a lower rate.

Lower rates were available on the market that we were paying, so KSE decided to reduce what the club would pay, even though it meant increasing out total debt.

But is it Fair Market Value

A tagline to come out of the Manchester City case is “Fair Market Value (FMV)”. And I agree with City that shareholder loans should also be at FMV.

No more zero percent loans like what both Manchester City and Chelsea have benefited from in the past. Shareholder loans should be provided at a FMV rate. And there is zero evidence that Arsenal’s loans are not at FMV:

To establish what FMV is, we only need to look up the Seven Sisters Road.

Tottenham’s stadium loan is at 2.6% interest. Taking into account our Loan to Value (to use a mortgage term), will be a lot less than Tottenham, we would expect the interest rate offered to also be slightly less. And it is. So if the above is true and that we are paying around 2.4% interest, than KSE are clearly providing us with a shareholder loan at FMV.

Injecting cash to compete

A false narrative being written by opposing fans is how we have borrowed £200M of our owners so we can compete with the big boys. the irony of this is us Arsenal fans have complained for nearly two decades about the lack of investment from KSE into the club.

And this loan is not an investment into Arsenal to allows us to compete. It is a refinancing of existing date which goes back to the stadium build.

The Kroenke’s did not go out in 2020 and give us over £200m to buy players and spend on wages. The loan was to pay off the existing debt, held at 2007 interest rates, and then add new debt to the club at lower interest rates.

Debt from infrastructure costs excluded from PSR

From Day One of PSR, debt accrued from infrastructure improvements were always excluded from PSR.

Building or maintaining a football stadium comes under the ‘in the general interests of football‘ clause, which also includes the costs of running the women’s team and the academy.

It is this clause which has allowed Manchester City to massively improve the Eastlands without impacting on PSR. That has allowed Tottenham to build a new stadium. That allowed Liverpool to expand their stadium. And that will eventually allow both Newcastle United and Chelsea to build new stadiums.

If debt incurred by building or maintaining a stadium was accountable under PSR, then no club would rebuild a new stadium. Or develop their current one. Nor would they invest as much money into either women’s football (a loss-maker for every English club) or the academy. All of these would be at the detriment of English football.

So regardless of whether or not the shareholder loan from KSE is at FMV, as long as we can prove that the loan was for infrastructure then it does not nee be submitted as part of our PSR monitoring. And we can prove it was for the stadium as we can show the receipts of us receiving a loan to almost the same value as the bonds we paid off that were raised in 2007.

Zero PSR concerns

Those that are creating a narrative that Arsenal have somehow used a loophole to circumnavigate PSR, or have future PSR concerns are doing so with a lack of knowledge.

They have neither taken into account that the loan from KSE is at FMV, and that the loan relates to infrastructure improvements.

Reading social media, you would think Arsenal had been given a £200m interest free loan from KSE to buy players in 2020. But we did not. The two clubs to have been given sizable interest free shareholders loan this century are Manchester City and Chelsea.

And my final thought is that if new rules come in banning shareholder loans altogether, then they will not be bought in retrospectively. Any club currently with a shareholder loan will be able to continue operating with it without paying it off.

And the worse case scenario is we merely take out a bank loan (still at lower than the 2007 rates), pay back the KSE shareholder loan, and return to monthly payments to our new creditor. Basically using Peter to pay Paul.

For opposing fans reading this, I hope you now feel educated. Although I imagine all of you will ignore the facts and continue to with the narrative that Arsenal are in the wrong. IF you maintain that standpoint, then good luck in life. You will need it.

Keenos

Which Arsenal signing proved you wrong?

International break number two is here, and The Arsenal are sitting pretty.

Having already faced 4 of the current Top 9, Mikel Arteta’s side are only one point off Arne Slot’s Liverpool – and with the Dutchman’s side travelling to the Emirates in the second game after the international break, it could be a real statement for Arsenal to make.

Nevertheless, now it’s time for the batteries to recharge – for the fans at the very least. Another set of fixtures where the players jet off to their national sides. A frustrating time for any football fan, but also a time to ponder.

So let’s ponder today by first talking about that second half performance from Kai Havertz. That was a leader’s display once we went a goal down. A ruthless finish, some gorgeous one touch football, and the way he scrapped to keep the ball in play in the closing minutes – top class. He now matches Robin van Persie in scoring for 7 consecutive home matches, and to be in that company means he’s doing something right.

It’s no secret that not everybody was convinced by Kai being brought to the club, which leads me into my main question for the day. Which Arsenal signing or player in general proved you wrong?

Did we sign a player you were vehemently against the idea of before they produced the goods? Maybe you weren’t convinced by a particular academy graduate that then blossomed into a good player? I’m intrigued to hear responses from your guys’ decades of watching the club.

Back to the weekend and someone who has been recalled by their national side: Gabriel Martinelli. After being left in London for last months internationals, Martinelli has regained some of that form that makes him such an exciting player to watch at his best. 2 goals and 2 assists in his last three Premier League matches is the type of Gabby we all love to watch. And outside of the end product, the game at the weekend also showed Gabby looking the most aggressive and direct in his play in a while. With a packed winter schedule and Martinelli’s statistically favourite club to face in Liverpool upcoming, let’s hope he see some vintage stuff from the Brazilian.

Finally, it was a weekend for ex-Gooners that are still held remembered fondly by fans. Aaron Ramsdale made his emotional return to Emirates Stadium with his new team, while Danny Welbeck put another layer on goodwill in the supporters of his former club as he sunk Mate FC after they Spursied a 2 goal lead on the South Coast.

So which former Gunner do you remember fondly? Not an easy option like Thierry Henry and co, but a player who wasn’t necessarily world class but always displayed a level of likeability and a good attitude to be in your good books?

Counting down the days to Bournemouth, now, hey…

Nick

How does the Manchester City findings impact Arsenal

There has been a lot of hullabaloo around the Manchester City trial following Monday’s “results”.

It is interesting to see different journalists and media outlets put their line in the ground over who they are going to support in the case. And their response to Monday’s findings highlight if they are backing the Premier League or Man City.

A bit of advise. Take everything said by anyone with a pinch of salt. Everyone is bias and will present the findings of the case in a way that supports their own narrative. And I include me in that.

If you want to really understand what is going on, read the findings yourself. Do not rely on others to interpret them. And certainly do not listen to those social media accounts with 100s of thousands of followers that are run by 18 year olds from around the world. You would not take legal advice from these incels if they ever ventured out to a pub, so why are you listening to their online views?

I have read the judgement. And in another life time I obtained a law degree. That does not mean that I am in any better position than everyone. But also means that I am in a better position to provide analysis than some social media account that has only read a headline. So here are my thoughts. My opinion…

What were Man City challenging

Manchester City’s challenge was around Associated Party Transfers. Or APT. These are the rules with PSR that mainly govern sponsorship deals. In plain English, they are the rules that dictate all sponsorship deals from associated parties must be at Fair Market Value (FMT)

IE, Etihad can not be paying Manchester City £100m a year in sponsorship, if the FMT for an airline sponsoring a top football club is only £60m.

Man City submitted 25 challenges to the existing APT rules. They were unsuccessful with 23.

On a whole, APT was found to be legitimate, and whilst ultimately Man City and their supporters (Newcastle, Chelsea, Everton), wanted them scrapped, the hearing has upheld them as part of PSR.

It is interesting to note fans of Newcastle, Chelsea and Everton were celebrating the findings on Monday. This highlights that fans were not really understanding what had been decided. APT is not going anywhere, it will just have some tweaking.

Burden of proof

A basic principal of law is that the burden of proof almost always lies with the accuser.

There circumstances when the evidential burden shifts to the defendant. This occurs when it is deemed easier for a defendant to prove why they had something in their possession, rather than the prosecution having to prove why they had it in their position.

In law, you are always taught about drug paraphernalia – it is easier for a defendant to prove why they have scales and loads of little clear plastic bags in the boot of their car rather than the prosecution having to prove what they were used for. My local Indian, for example, would quickly be able to prove that the little bags were to put mints in for takeaways and the scales were to measure ingredients.

The Premier League had decided that it was up to clubs to prove that deals were FMV. the challenge against this shifting burden of proof was successful, and it will likely result in the Premier League having to prove that a deal is not at FMV in the future, rather than the initial standpoint being that the club is guilty.

What has not changed, however, is the “punishment”. It is still down to the Premier League to decide what FMV is, and the ability to discount income above FMV is retained. So those Newcastle fans celebrating that they can get a “£1bn naming rates deal” are misguided.

Shareholder loans

Whilst arguing the parameters of FMV, Manchester City also questions the rules around shareholder loans.

The very valid point was made that if sponsorship deals had to be at FMV, then surely shareholder loans should be as well? And this challenge was upheld.

Under current rules, an shareholder could loan a club a chunk of money at 0% interest. These was deemed to be unfair by the board, as the loan would not be provided at a FMV. The consequence will be that when reviewing shareholder loans for PSR, the Premier League will now have to ensure that any interest paid has been at FMV.

Ironically, the two clubs who have had “interest free shareholder loans” in the last decade or more are Chelsea and Manchester City. So by challenging this ruling, they are closing a loophole that they have previously exploited.

Some in the media have written this as “City get one over Arsenal and Manchester United”, with loads of Newcastle fans (why is it always them?) now writing a narrative that Arsenal are in breach of PSR rules. But how true is this?

Firstly, Arsenal do owe £259m to KSE. This was after KSE restructured our debt back in 2020. There has been zero evidence presented that the money loaned by KSE to Arsenal was not a FMV. whislt there is lots of evidence that the loan was at FMV.

At the time when KSE loaned Arsenal the money, the Bank of England interest rate was 0.1%. A good comparator is Tottenham, who were paying 2.6% on their loan to build the stadium. At the same time, Arsenal were paying around 5.14%, as the bonds were taken out in 2007 when the Bank of England rate was 5%.

Reports are that we currently pay KSE around 2.2%-2.4% in interest. This is a tad lower than what Tottenham’s loan was at, but was also given at a time when the BoE interest rate was at its lowest.

What Arsenal do not have is an interest free loan. There might need to be a small adjustment as to the interest we declare for PSR, but it should not be a huge adjustment.

It also needs to be factored in that the loan to KSE is in relation to the stadium build and other infrastructure. And this spend is exempt for PSR reporting. These loans are not to pay wages and / or transfer fees, or to cover up for huge losses. So the loan to KSE might not even need to be declared as part of our PSR reporting.

Finally, it is unlikely that any rule implemented around shareholder loans will be retrospective. Changes will be made to new loans moving forward. So we really do not have much to worry about.

Final thoughts

It is interesting to see the likes of Everton and West Ham United fans celebrate Manchester City’s “victory” over the Premier League. My feeling is this is to deflect from their own bad owners poor running of their clubs.

Any decision against the Premier League during the case will be in the favour of “state owned” clubs. And Everton and West Ham are neither of these. So by celebrating every Man City victory, they are actually celebrating being at an even bigger financial disadvantage than they are now. Man City successfully challenging points does not favour them.

As for Newcastle, their celebrations show their delusion since their new owners came in. they really think that the Premier League are stopping PFI bank rolling Newcastle to success. I would suggest they spend more time looking at PFI business models and learning what their owners intentions are. It is also about sportswashing and having a share in English football. Not about winning.

The only challenge that benefits Newcastle is that the burden of proof on FMV now falls to the Premier League. Not, as their fans seem to think, that APT is about to be scrapped. Infact the ruling stated the very opposite, and reiterated that APT is both on the whole fair, and important.

And finally, to reiterate my guidance, DYOR. you would not take financial advice off a faceless social media account (although some do), so why would you believe what someone you do not know is presenting as “facts” around a legal case. And I include me in that.

DYOR. Make your own judgement.

Keenos