Category Archives: Arsenal

Mo Money Mo Problems – Big money transfers not the way to go

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I have always been an exponent of “it is not about what you spend, it is about who you buy”. I also detest those that talk (and celebrate) about winning the “transfer window”.

We are on the verge of signing Mikel Merino (the deal might finally be done by the time you read this. The Spanish midfielder joins Riccardo Calafiori as the sole new Arsenal faces this summer.

The response to Merino was as expected: Not the big signing we need.

Fans seem to want an endorphin hit when signing a player. And that hit only happens when you sign a big name, or spend a big fee. They do not really if that player is worth the fee, or if he is suitable for The Arsenal. They just want to see big names, or big spending.

Calafiori and Merino might not be big names, nor come with big price tags. But they are regulars for their country (Italy and Spain respectively). In Merino’s case, he played every game for Spain as they went on to win the Euro’s – albeit coming off the bench each time with around 30 minutes to go. But hey! Being Spain’s second choice in a position means you are a pretty good player.

And this all got me thinking about the biggest transfers in world football and wether they were “hits” or “misses”.

Neymar to PSG – Miss

Biggest transfer in history. Was signed to take PSG to the Champions League and make them a true force to be reckoned with. Failed to win the Champions League. Averaged just 18 league games a season. Failed to make PSG the huge club they wish to be.

Kylian Mbappe to PSG – Miss

Like Neymar, Mbappe failed to win the Champions League with PSG. Mbappe was supposed to become PSG’s Lionel Messi or Cristiano Ronaldo. He has never reached their level despite playing in an inferior league.

Philippe Coutinho to Barcelona – Miss

One of the most overrated footballers in history. Was baffled why Barcelona spent the fee on him at the time. Average player who scores the occasional cracker.

Ousmane Dembele to Barcelona – Miss

Fans still go on about Dembele’s potential, but he is now 27!. Has failed throughout his career to show any consistency.

Joao Felix to Atletico Madrid – Miss

Signed to replace Antoine Griezmann. Never fulfilled his potential, let alone justified his transfer fee. Loaned out twice and now sold for £80m less than Atletico paid for him.

Enzo Fernandez to Chelsea – Miss

Joined Benfica in the summer of 2022 for €10 million. Had a good World Cup. Joined Chelsea in January 2023 for €122 million. Price went up 10-fold due to a good World Cup. Has done little to show that his World Cup form was any more than a purple patch.

Eden Hazard to Real Madrid – Miss

Was clearly on the decline when Real Madrid signed him. Failed to make an impact. Ate well.

Antoine Griezmann to Barcelona – Miss

Lasted just two seasons before being loaned back to Atletico Madrid.

Jack Grealish to Manchester City – Miss

An example of a club signing a player to stop others getting him. Jack Grealish is more known for his off-field antics celebrating title wins than his contribution on-field to them.

Cristiano Ronaldo to Juventus – Hit

Yes, he was a huge transfer, his wages nearly bankrupt Juventus, and he was released on a free transfer 3-years after signing. But over 100 goals in those 3 seasons make him a hit.

Declan Rice to Arsenal – Hit

Has kicked on to become a world class talent. Now amongst the best two defensive midfielder in world football (alongside Rodri). Also shown a more attacking side to his play. Arsenal would make a huge profit if they sold him this summer. Now just needs to win trophies

Moises Caicedo to Chelsea – Jurys out

Unlike Fernandez, Caicedo came with a reputation built across more than a 3-week winter tournament. Struggled in the first half of the season, but came strong as Chelsea charged up the table. This season will be key.

Romelu Lukaku to Chelsea – Miss

Destroyed Arsenal in his first game back for Chelsea. Four goals in his first four games. Than failed to score for his next 10. After one-season, was loaned out. Chelsea still trying to get rid.

Paul Pogba to Manchester United – Miss

One of these players who performs better for his country than his club. Won the World Cup for France during his time at Manchester United, but never consistently reached high levels to justify the price tag.

Jude Bellingham to Real Madrid – Hit

Sensational first season. Will only get better.

Gareth Bale to Real Madrid – Hit

Gad a love / hate relationship with Madridistas, especially towards the end. But 106 goals in 258, 3 league titles, 5 Champions Leagues, and THAT winning goal makes him a hit.

Harry Kane to Bayern Munich- Jurys Out

After 10 years struggling with a mid-table team, Kane finally got his big move to Bayern Munich. And then failed to win a trophy again. Considering Munich’s success in Germany, it will take Champions League success for Kane to be a hit.

Randal Kolo Muani to PSG – Jurys Out

I will be honest, before the Euro’s this summer I had not even heard of Randal Kolo Muani. I was even more surprised to find out that he cost the French side nearly £100m! Six league goals last season was not particularly great. Lets see what he does this.

Antony to Manchester United – Miss

Useless. Would not even get into a League One team.

Cristiano Ronaldo to Real Madrid – Hit

Kicked on to a new level. Became one of the greatest of all time. Could add another zero to his transfer fee and he would still be a hit.

Out of the top 20 most expensive players of all time, only 5 justified their transfer fee. The rest either flopped (Antony), failed to live up to the hype (Neymar), or failed to step up to the next level that would have justified the fee (Mbappe).

We need to stop caring as much about what players cost and rating them on their transfer fees. Your big name, big money signings rarely work out. It is better to be fishing a couple of levels below and getting value for money!

Enjoy the game later today.

Keenos

Arsenal gamble on youngsters long term value rising

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On the face of it, selling Charlie Patino for just £1m looks like a huge undersell.

The youngster was once the jewel in the academy. He looked destined for the top as part of an England youth set up that also contained Jude Bellingham and Jamal Musiala. But whilst those two have risen to the top, Patino has struggled to transition from age group football to men’s football.

In Patino’s only start for Arsenal, against Nottingham Forest in the FA Cup back in 2022, he looked lightweight and clearly not ready for men’s football. Unlike Bellingham and Musiala, he was not an 18-year-old in a 25-year-olds body. He struggled physically.

He then went on loan to Blackpool.

Whilst he performed well, he also showed he was not Premier League ready as Blackpool were relegated. It was decided another loan would best suit him and off he went to Swansea City.

Patino would struggle to establish himself in the Swansea team and from November would be dropped to the bench. This would see his minutes very limited, and average just 15 minutes a game in the final 30 matches of the season.

Returning to Arsenal this summer, it was again clear that he was not ready for Premier League football, yet alone ready to break into the Arsenal first team. And whilst he was away on loan, younger players had begun to break through at the club – namely Myles Lewis-Skelly and Ethan Nwaneri.

Patino also had just 1-year left on his contract. That meant that Arsenal could not afford to loan him out again to see if it was “3rd time lucky” and see if he bulks up and develop the physicality to match his fabulous technique. The only option for the club was to sell him.

But other sides in England would have taken note of his average Championship performances. He was showing signs that his level was as a squad player in the Championship, rather than a Premier League hopeful. And this would result in very few clubs showing interest.

In the end, Arsenal have agreed a deal with Deportivo La Coruna, who currently play in the Spanish 2nd division.

The fact he is off to the second tier in Spain highlights again that he had failed to make that transition to top level men’s football. There was simply no interest in him from top leagues.

By moving to Deportivo, Arsenal are gambling on his long term value rising.

The easy option would have been to sell him to a Championship club for £4-6million, and walk away having banked some profit. Instead we have decided to “send” Patino to Spain, to rebuild his career and reputation. And if Patino successfully develops in a less physical league, Arsenal could be quids in.

By agreeing a lower upfront fee, we were able to negotiate a “significant sell-on clause” that could see the club benefit between 35-50% of his future transfer profit, depending on which source you believe.

Taking into account the way the transfer market is going, a couple of good years in Spain for Deportivo could see him quickly become a £20m play. That would see Arsenal net between £6.65m and £9m profit. And if he really applies himself over the next couple of years, we could benefit even more!

We recently saw the Riccardo Calafiori deal being held up due to a sell-on clause that Basel had put in his contract when selling the defender to Bologna. That would see Basel bank 40% of Calafiori’s transfer fee to Arsenal just 12 months after he had returned to Italy.

We also adopted the same strategy with Omari Hutchinson.

The youngster was allowed to go to Chelsea for free, but we agreed a reported 50% sell on clause. Chelsea then sent him on-loan to Ipswich, who then decided to spend £20m on him, banking Arsenal £10m.

had we sold the wantaway youngster for a straight fee 2-years earlier, we would have been lucky to bank £5m. By gambling that his value would increase with game time, we made more money. And we will be hoping the same is with Patino.

The difference between the £1m we got for Patino and the £4-6million we would have got selling him to the Championship is negligible. It would have made no difference to our overall transfer fund. And we are not Chelsea were we need to raise funds here and now to satisfy PSR (ps: I wonder how many of the Chelsea exits are deals with instalments paid over a long period, and then Chelsea are using factoring companies to gain early access to the unpaid sums. At a cost of course).

If we think Patino is undervalued, and that with game time he could explode, it makes complete sense to allow him to leave for a smaller upfront fee and gamble on that explosion happening. Imagine the outcry had we sold him for £4-6m and then in 12-months a West Ham , Bournemouth or Crystal Palace come in for him for £30m. At least now if that happens we could get up to half of the fee.

With transfers, you always need to take a step back and look at what is happening. With Patino we are making an educated guess that he will make more off the sell-on clause in 1-2 years time than we could get for him now.

And my final thought on Patino is: how much do you think a player that struggled for regular Championship football should be sold for?

Keenos

Stop with the Nketiah slander

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Nketiah just can’t cut it. On a high wage, does not produce and is ineffective. Any fee for Nketiah should be considered a bonus. We just need to get rid.

I have seen versions of the above countless times since we rejected Marseille’s bid for Eddie Nketiah. The slander and criticism of the Hale End graduate from Arsenal fans is ridiculous.

Eddie is not a poor player.

Just because he is not good enough to be a regular starter for The Arsenal (a title challenging team) does not mean is no good. He would do a fantastic job playing week in, week out for a mid-table Premier League team.

There are levels to football, and Eddie would score 15+ league goals for someone like Crystal Palace, Bournemouth or Wolverhampton Wanderers.

I also do not buy into those that say he is not good enough for Arsenal.

Yes, he is not good enough to start regular, but for me he is the best 3rd choice striker in the Premier League.

Go and do your own research and tell me who Manchester City, Liverpool, Aston Villa, Tottenham, Chelsea, Manchester United and Newcastle have as their 3rd choice striker – Nketiah will be better than them all.

The issue for Nketiah at Arsenal isn’t that he is not good enough to be our 3rd choice striker, but that we do not need an out and out 3rd choice striker.

We play one up top. We therefore only need two strikers. Do not believe me? Go and look at the make up of Pep Guardiola’s Manchester City over the last decade – Haaland and Alvarez, Aguero and Jesus.

There were a few years Pep where would Kelechi Iheanacho as a 3rd choice, but the Nigerian was clearly not good enough to start regularly fo City. And Nketiah is a similar level to the now Sevilla striker.

Were Eddie to leave, we would not go straight out into the market to buy a replacement, because we still would not need a 3rd choice striker.

One option will be to buy a top winger, and then Gabriel Martinelli / Leandro Trossard become the 3rd choice striker as a second job behind their primary role on the wing.

Alternatively, we go out and buy a striker who is better than Jesus, and the Brazilian then becomes a regular option on the wing whilst also on occasion being a striker.

Which scenario, we end up with the 3rd choice striker also being an option on the left and right wing. Nketiah is not better than Jesus, nor does he have the versatility to play outside. But again, just because he is not good enough for Arsenal, it does not mean he is not good enough.

I see a lot of talk about Eddie’s wage – reported to be £100k a week. Those that think this is a “high wage” need to bring their head in 2024. That is what squad players at title challenging clubs get these days. And also what a starting striker can expect to get playing for any mid-lower table side in the Premier League.

When we turned down the bid from Marsielle, there was uproar. We should just cash in was said by many. But is £17m really the right fee for someone of Nketiah’s ability? Or would we be underselling?

Dominic Solanke has just signed for Tottenham for £65m. He is 2 years Eddie’s senior and has one good season under his belt.

Yes, last season Solanke was terrific scoring 19 Premier League goals. But in his 4 Premier League seasons prior to 2023/24, Solanke had scored just 10 goals in 96 Premier League appearances. That is 1 goal every 9.6 games.

As a comparison, Eddie has 19 career Premier League goals in his 116 appearances for Arsenal. That is 1 in 6.

I am not saying that Nketiah is better than Solanke, nor am I saying we should expect £65m for Eddie. But Solanke has had one good season in the Premier League in his career and turns 27 soon. Eddie at 25 has done more in the top flight of English football than Solanke did at the same age.

Armando Broja is also off to Ipswich on loan, with an obligation to buy for £30m if they stay up. Broja is 23-years-old and has scored a grand total of 2 Premier League goals in 26 games.

If Broja is going for £30m, then Nketiah is worth at least that!

Many of those complaining we did not sell Nketiah for £17m also complain we undersell players, and would have complained had we sold Eddie for just £17m. Had Eddie already left for Marseille, they would be up in arms over that Broja price this morning!

Fans act like Eddie is worthless, that he is not good enough to be 3rd choice for The Arsenal. Not good enough to start for a mid-table Premier League team. Not good worth £30m. They could not be so wrong.

Meanwhile, they still cheer for Emile Smith Rowe. A player that has done less for us than Eddie. A player who has been unable to stay fit for 2 seasons.

They still cry for ESR, calling it the biggest mistake in Arsenal’s history. Claiming we undersold him at £25m (he went for the same as Ollie Skipp who is the same level!). They hype up Smith Rowe and what he did for Arsenal, whilst playing down Nketiah’s ability and what he did.

The reality is neither are good enough for Arsenal. But both will be solid signings for mid-table Premier League sides. And we should be looking to clear in excess of £50m in selling them this summer.

Eddie has not moaned about lack of playing time. He has not thrown his toys out the pram. Not demanded to leave. He has applied himself well in training throughout his career, but unfortunately for him his ceiling is our 3rd choice striker. That does not make him a bad player.

I will wish Nketiah all the luck when he departs. And I bet in 2-years when he scores 15+ goals for Nottingham Forest or Crystal Palace, and moves to West Ham for £45m, those moaning now will be moaning again that we should have stuck with Eddie Nketiah!

Keenos