A year ago, the Saudi Pro League were disrupting the transfer market, with clubs spending nearly £1bn combined. Only the Premier League clubs had a larger combined spend for 2023/24.
This year, Saudi clubs have spent just £15om between them. That is less than Chelsea have spent alone – and pretty much the same as what the likes of Aston Villa, Brighton and Manchester United have spent this summer.
So what is happening out their in the Middle East?
Players do not want to go
Players talk. And perhaps more importantly, players wives and girlfriends talk.
Aymeric Laporte spoke last year about how players were “dissatisfied”. The Spanish defender went on to raise issues from working conditions, quality of life and broken promises.
Many WAGs dreamed of a Dubai style living experience, but have quickly realised that Saudi Arabia living is very different to that in the Emirate city, with many players deciding to live in the more liberal Bahrain. As Laporte, put it, “you spend a lot of time in the car” due to having to commute across borders and because of traffic.
The conditions have already seen the exodus of players – most notably Jordan Henderson how only last half a season. Joining the ex-England captain in the departure lounge are the likes of Ivan Rakitic, Allan Saint-Maximin, David Ospina, Matheus Pereira and Andre Gray.
12-months ago, many players would have been saying to their agents “I will have a bit of that. See what you can do”. This summer and it appears players are less willing to manufacture of a move for themselves.
Players waiting for European offers
There has been a bit of head scratching around Ivan Toney, who looks destined to move to Saudi Arabia in the next 10 days. “I am surprised a top English team have not taken a punt” seems to be the consensus.
I am sure every Premier League club, including Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool, would have have had a look at Toney and had a discussion with his representatives. they have all been put off by what they have either seen or head.
It might be due to Toney’s wage demands (reported to be £250k a week), concerns about his attitude, or just his poor form since returning from his transfer ban. With doors closing around England, and none opening further afield in Europe, the only opportunity left on the table was Saudi Arabia.
I am fairly positive that had an English team come in for Toney, he would have preferred to remain in England. A move to Saudi Arabia was probably his last resort.
And you have to wonder how many other players are currently sitting their thinking “yes, I will go to Saudi Arabia, but I would prefer to stay in Europe if that is possible”.
The likes of Raheem Sterling, Ben Chillwell, Reiss Nelson, Romelu Lukaku and Jadon Sancho might all decide last minute to go to Saudi Arabia for the year if other deals fail to materilise.
Saudi Arabia will end up becoming a players “second choice”. The UEL of football.
Investors losing interest
The Saudi Pro League was always an exercise in sportswashing.
Alongside “Riyadh season”, which has taken boxing, F1, snooker, WWE, MMA, snooker and various European “super cups” to the capital, the Pro-League was all about buying a fan base to try and take the narrative on Saudi Arabia away from their horrendous human rights record.
Football has failed to take off in Saudi Arabia, with the 18 clubs averaging just 8,158 across the 2023/24 season. Al-Ahli SFC had the highest average with 23,370. But with the King Abdullah Sports City stadium holding in excess of 60,000, the 2/3s empty stadium was an embarrassment.
There was also a lack of interest in the Saudi Pro League outside of the country. With hardly anyone tuning in and TV companies reluctant to pay for the rights.
Just 5,000 viewers tuned into watch the top of the table clash between Al-Hilal and Al-Ittihad on Canel+. That is less than what watched FC Rouen against Sochaux-Montbéliard in the Championnat National (2rd tier of French football) on the same channel.
Despite signing La Liga legends Cristiano Ronaldo and Karim Benzema, the Spanish TV deal was worth just €60,000, whilst DAZN paid just $500k for the rights to screen games in the UK, Germany and Austria for 2023/24.
The rulers of Saudi Arabia do not like being embarrassed, and the Saudi Pro League is an embarrassment.
Low attendances and low TV viewing figures. It is clear that no one cares about the Saudi Pro League. And if no one cares it cares for the league, than it is no longer a useful tool in Saudi Arabia’s sportswashing campaign.
History repeating itself
The Saudi Pro League is facing the same issues as the Chinese Super League in the 2010s and the MLS in the 70s.
You simply can not start a league, splash loads of cash on ageing stars, and buy your way into popularity. Football, with its tribalism’s, does not work like that. A league can not simply become an overnight success just because they but some over-the-hill legends.
Add in the living and working conditions, and broken promises, the Saudi Pro League is just history repeating itself.
The downfall of the Chinese Super League was caused by the oversaturation of ageing foreign stars, who found themselves living in poor conditions with unpaid wages mounting up. Newly formed teams also suffered from “lack of competitive spirit“. It is a mirror image as to what has happened in Saudi Arabia in the past 12 months.
Summary
I expect some players to make the move late in the transfer window to the Saudi Pro League. But those players are only going to the Middle East because no other options materialised.
They will likely move across their on short term deals, to play a bit of football and get huge wages, before looking to engineer a way back into European football in 12 months
For many players, Saudi Arabia is not the destination of choice. It is a last resort. And that is why Saudi clubs have spent less combined then some Premier League teams!
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 