Over the years, I could be accused of being obsessed with ages when it comes to footballers
Cesc Fabregas did a job on me and for a long term, I had the opinion that if a teenage footballer was not doing what a 17, 18 or 19-year-old like Cesc had done, then they would not develop into a top player.
It took me years to realise just how special Cesc was, and that there have only been a handful of players doing what he could do as a teenager.
I am also a paid-up member of the “he is too old” club.
This time my view is backed up by plenty of data that for most players, being aged over 28 is the worst time you can buy them.
At 28 years old a player is in their peak. It is at this age that they will likely demand the highest wages in their career. And it is also at this age that clubs will make the biggest loss between what they signed them for and sold them for.
There is also plenty of evidence out there that as a player enters their 30s, they begin to deceive physically and for many that drop can be off a cliff.
You buy a 28-year-old for £50m and give them £250k a week. There is a high chance that they will only maintain their current level for another 2 or 3 years, after which the de elite begins.
That leaves a club with a highly paid player who is no longer performing at the top level. A club’s choices are either to see it out and lose them on a free, or cut their losses and sell for a low fee – and probably have to subsidise his wages as a new buying club won’t want to pay what you are.
Manchester United signing both Robin van Persie and Alexis Sanchez from Arsenal highlights the dangers of signing a player on the wrong side of 28 who is about to drop off that cliff.
The issue with my thinking is it treats every player equally. It assumes that every star only has 2-3 years left at the top when they hit 29, and that is just not true.
Yes, players that start early tend to decline earlier (another thing I believe in his that most players only have 10 years at the top, so a player playing week in week out at 18 will be done at 28, whilst one who doesn’t break through till 32 will keep going into their 30’s), and those that rely on explosive speed decline as quick as their acceleration when they lose it. But not all players are built the same.
The likes of Fernando Torres, Alexis Sanchez and Pierre Emerick Aubameyang were always going to drop off that cliff rapidly when their pace went. As did Michael Owen, Thie Walcott and Thierry Henry. But then someone like Harry Kane and Robert Lewandowski who have never had pace to begin with, so had nothing to lose.
Then you have players who were known for their pace, but could also use their brain, and as they declined physically they made up for it through technique, vision and knowledge, changing the way they played. Think Dennis Bergkamp, Cristiano Ronaldo, and to some extent Henry.
So far I have only spoken about attacking players, and that is also flaw in my thinking.
Attackers more than any other position rely on their pace. But positions elsewhere do not need someone who is rapid – and that is especially the case in central defence and midfielder.
Most of the best defenders to ever play the game had no pace. They also played at the highest level way into their late 30s. Fabio Canavarro, Tony Adams, Giorgio Cheillini to name 3.
These sort of players kept it simple throughout their career, seeking to win duels through their reading of the game rather than being stronger or quicker.
“Flashier” defenders such as Virgil van Dijk and Laurent Koscielny might look good, but they ret on their pace to make up for the poor reading of the game.
And then we come onto midfielders.
There are different ways of playing defensive midfield. You have the “cover every blade of grass” men, such as N’Golo Kante, the “dominate physically” players such as Thomas Partey, and then the visonaries such as Andrea Pirlo.
The first two types of players rely a lot on physical attributes – either stamina or power. These are attributes, like, pace, that can decline into their later years.
Already with Thomas Partey we are seeing a player that does not dominate physically like he use too. The Ghanian is 31-years-old. Meanwhile N’Golo Kante dropped off a cliff during the 2021/22 season. He no longer looked to be able to cover every blade grass. He was also 31.
But then what about the midfielders who have never relied on their stamina or power? Who have relied on their reading of the game, positioning and technique?
I always found it unfair when fans (of both Chelsea and Arsenal), would criticise Jorginho for “not having the legs”. He never had the legs. And his game was never about him having the legs.
Jorginho’s in-game vision allowed him to be in the right position, at the right time to intercept the ball. He rarely needed to cover ground to get into the right position as he was always there. And then his passing meant he did not need to hold off an opponent. The ball was gone before he was close to being pressed.
The Italian-Brazilian turns 33 in December, and I for one was delighted that he signed a new deal.
But Jorginho is not doing anything players before him have not done. He is not a groundbreaking player who relies on his reading of the game to excel. The likes of Pirlo, Xabi Alonso, Michael Carrick and Luka Modric played at the high level well into their late 90s.
That brings me onto Joshua Kimmich.
It only feels like yesterday that Kimmich was heir apparent to Philipp Lahm as right back come central midfielder.
It was way back in 2015 that Bayern Munich signed a then 20-year-old Kimmich from RB Leipzig, which in turn saw Lahm push into central midfield. The feeling was that Kimmich would follow his German teammate and eventually play as a defensive midfielder.
The transition from right back to defensive midfielder was a gradual one following Lahm’s retirement in 2017. By 2019, Kimmich had established himself the lynchpin of Munich’s midfield.
Kimmich like Lahm, was never one to need to dominate with any particularly physical set of skills. He has fantastic game awareness, defensive positioning and passing range. He is up there as one of the best defensive midfielders in the world, even though he is not in the destructive mould of a Declan Rice or Rodri.
Everything about Kimmich’s game points to a player that will continue operating at a high level for another 5 or 6 years, and with one year on his contract, the stars might be aligning for him to be looking for a new challenge this summer.
Had you asked me if I would want us to be targeting a 29-year-old defensive midfielder this summer, I would previously had questioned the transfer. But Kimmich is an Alonso. He is a Modric. He is a Pirlo. He has the attributes to dictate play in the Premier League for years to come.
On this occasion, I would be more than happy to see Joshua Kimmich join Arsenal. A midfield 3 of Kimmich, Rice and Odegaard provides us with so much balance, so many different threats.
And then backing up Kimmich, we still have that option of Jorginho, and also playing Rice deeper to provide further protection.
Enjoy your Saturday.
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 