After they both won yesterday, you could feel that Aston Villa and Tottenham are breathing down our neck – Villa are 3 points behind and Spurs are 8.
Whilst top 4 is certainly not yet secure (our PL stays is though as we can no longer get relegated!), we need to keep the focus on the teams as above us.
As long as we keep winning, we will continue extending the lead on those below us whilst putting pressure on the teams above.
There will be another St Totteringham’s Day again this year, I am certain of it. We probably only need to win another 5 or 6 games to gaurantee it. But we have bigger fish to fry.
Liverpool “overtime”
Yesterday Liverpool scored with the last kick of the game against Nottingham Forest. It was no different to us scoring a winner against Luton earlier this season.
Injury time is always a “minimum” and you need to account for further stoppages for time wasting, injuries, etc that occur. If 8 minutes are on the board after 90, than you should not be surprised that closer to 9 minutes is played.
During injury time, Nottingham Forest had two players booked for time wasting. The corner they scored from was also taken before 98 minutes was up. Forest failed to clear the corner and it is not unusual for refs to not blow up until the attack is over and ball properly cleared. Again, we got this advantage against Luton and won a free kick which we were then allowed to take and score from.
Every team will have this sort of winner (or 2) over the course of the season. I think Bournemouth last season. Wolves the season before.
It’s football.
Managing injuries
It is interesting to listen to Mikel Arteta talk about not rushing the likes of Gabriel Jesus, Thomas Partey and Jurrien Timber back from injuries – about how important it is to allow them to fully complete their rehabilitation before slowly integrating them back into the first team.
There was definitely a feeling a few years ago that we would rush players back. That they would play before they were ready. And the result was they would often break down again.
The fact we have not felt the need to rush the likes of Partey back shows the strength of our squad these down. And even when Partey is back to fully fit, he has a battle to get back into the Arsenal first team.
Declan Rice is clearly the first choice in that position now, and Jorginho has been on fine form recently. Partey will have to earn his chance.
Due to others being in the FA Cup, we will have some end of season fixture congestion.
Chelsea will already be re-arranged, and if Wolves overcome Coventry, that game will be move to mid-week as well.
If we can get Partey, Jesus and Timber back fit, as well as Tomi and Olexsandr Zinchenko, it will allow Arteta to make changes without losing quality.
I wouldn’t be surprised to see Partey and Jesus both get 20 minutes tomorrow, whilst I imagine Timber’s return is pencilled in for after the March international break.
In the second part of David Ornstein’s Q&A, the The Athletic journalist followed up on the players he believes could leave Arsenal by naming a couple of strikers that the club “amidre”.
A reminder that this was a Q&A, so more Ornstein sharing his thoughts in a podcast as to what could happen with Arsenal, more than him sharing concrete information about deals that could be close.
Viktor Gyokeres
A late bloomer, Viktor Gyokeres is one of the most talked about forwards in Europe right now.
The 25-year-old joined Brighton in 2017 but failed to play even a minute of Premier League football.
Loan deals to German 2nd tier side St Pauli and Swansea City in the Championship went by with the Swede making very little impact, scoring 8 goals in 40 games. Following a 3rd loan move to Coventry City, 3 goals in 19 Championship games was enough to convince the Sky Blues to sign him permanently in 2021.
Gyokeres next two seasons would see him score 38 goals in 91 Championship games. That was enough to see Portuguese side Sporting Lisbon pay a club record transfer fee of €20 million (plus a further €4m in add-ons).
With 27 goals in 29 games across all competitions (at the time of writing) for Sporting this season, Gyokeres’ stock has risen dramatically.
He is very much in the mould of Erling Haaland and Rasmus Hojlund in being a powerful forward capable of causing havoc in the box, but also having pace to also be a threat in behind.
The concern will be that he turns 26 in the summer, and has achieved very little in his career bar the current hot season he is having for Sporting (and a couple of decent Championship campaigns).
The Premier League is a step up from the Primeira Liga, and for the money Sporting will demand you would either want someone younger, who can grow more, or someone proven over a longer period.
Gyokeres would offer us an alternative to Gabriel Jesus, without Mikel Arteta needing to change the team way of playing too much.
Santiago Gimenez
If the worry about Viktor Gyokeres is his age in comparison to his top flight experience and cost, then at 22, forward Santiago Gimenez is a viable alternative. I believe Gimenez is one of those “and others” that Ornstein mentioned.
Like Gyokeres, Gimenez plays in a 2nd tier league. Portugal and Holland are that level below England, Spain, Italy, etc. The Argentine forward has backed up a very good debut season in Europe this season – scoring 44 goals in 72 games for Feyenoord.
Gimenez and Gyokeres both have similar styles of play in terms of mixing power and pace. The advantage of Gimenez is that he is 3 years younger and a year more proven.
The worry is for every Robin van Persie or Luis Suarez who have come across from Holland, there is a Afonso Alves, Luuk De Jong, Alireza Jahanbakhsh, Sebastian Haller, Vincent Jansen or Memphis Depay.
Cody Gakpo has shown the gulf in class between the Eredivisie and Premier League. He has gone from best in the league to squad player. But that might not be an issue if the striker we are looking for is to be a Plan B to Gabriel Jesus. And at 22, Gimenez is still improving.
If both Gimenez and Gyokeres were available at the same price, my preference would be Gimenez.
Benjamin Sesko
I was surprised to hear Ornstein name Sesko first.
We were heavily linked a year ago whilst he was at Red Bull Salzburg. Last summer he took the common move to their sister club RB Leipzig for £20m.
Whilst he is a good, young striker who reminds me a bit of Dimitar Berbatov, Sesko has failed to become a first team regular with Leipzig. 3 league goals in his first 15 league games of the season. He does have 4 goals in his last 4 starts for Leipzig.
The concern with Sesko is he is a “project player”, but will come at a premium cost. I am not sure we can afford to spend big on a Rasmus Hojlund type player who might take 6-7 months to come good. We will be out of the title race by then.
The only way Sesko is a good option is if Arteta still plans to use Jesus as his primary striker, and then spend the next couple of years moulding the Slovenian’s into his ideal forward. Issue with that is
Evan Ferguson
In September, Brighton’s Evan Ferguson was the name on everyone’s lips. He looked destined for a big move come summer 2024. Some even labelled him the next Wayne Rooney.
Since his hat trick against Newcastle in September, Ferguson has scored just twice. He highlights the danger of (potentially) spending big on a youngster after just a handful of games.
Is Ferguson the next Wayne Rooney? Or is he going to end up an Andy Carroll?
I remember the hype around Carroll when he came though. A strong man with pace, great technique and an eye for goal, he seemed destined for greatness. But injuries and inconsistency cost him. And his best season remained his breakthrough one where he scored 11 goals in 19 games as a 20 year old.
In October, Ferguson turns 20. Whilst that is still no age, it becomes a good comparison to Carroll.
After his 11 goals in 19 games, Carroll moved to Liverpool £35 million in January 2011. He would score just 6 league goals for them before being sold to West Ham in 2013 for just £15m.
I think there is a player in Ferguson, but I would want to see him prove himself a little more before we spend big on him.
Ivan Toney
Another of the “others”, the Brentford striker is someone I have a love / hate relationship with.
On one side, he is of questionable character. Removing the gambling ban, he has exposed himself too often on social media as being a bit of a tosser and has continually mugged off Brentford and their fans. On the other, he reminds me of Ian Wright in the way he has risen through the leagues and overcome many obstacles in his career.
Toney is a proven Premier League goal scorer with 32 goals in in 66 games before this season. Since his return from his ban, he has scored 3 goals in 4 games (at the time of writing). His spell on the sidelines as certainly not led to a drop in his sharpness.
If we are looking to have someone compliment rather than replace Gabriel Jesus, then Toney looks to be that man.
The pair share a lot of characteristics but are also very different.
Both men work hard upfront, run the channels and make life difficult for defenders with their pressing. But whilst Jesus is more silky in his play, Toney is more of a powerhouse. They would provide a good Plan A and Plan B for each other without the need to change things too much.
Toney turns 28 in a month, and whilst that age might be a concern, it would only make him a few months older than Wrighty was when he joined.
Another player to compare him to is Jamie Vardy, who did not get his Premier League chance until he was 27. The Leicester City forward would score 135 Premier League goals and is 15 on the all-time last (yes, I know there was football before the Premier League.
£100m would feel steep for Toney, but with his contract expiring in the summer of 2025, you would expect Arsenal to be able to secure him for half that. There is also the possibility that a deal could be done with Aaron Ramsdale to Brentford that could offset the fee further.
I can certainly see a situation where we sign David Raya (£27m) and Toney for £60m, and then Ramsdale joins Brentford for £40m. The former-Football Manager player in me then says we could get another £20m from them for Eddie Nketiah!
With his latest injury, there is no doubt that we need a 2nd top striker to either play ahead of, to compete with, or to provide an alternative to Gabriel Jesus.
Ivan Toney, Gimenez and Gyokeres are the 3 that currently peak my interest the most – all 3 could probably be recruited for no more than £60m which would leave us with more funds to recruit elsewhere.
Toney is the eldest of the 3, but also the player with the lowest risk having already proved he can do it in the Premier League over the last 3 seasons.
Gimenez and Gyokeres are both players who are doing bits at their level. But so were Darwin Nunez and Cody Gakpo. £60m for a player who is unproven in a top league would represent a big risk. But that is where football is going right now.
I look at Liverpool and think “Luis Diaz, Darwin Nunez, Diogo Jota and Cody Gakpo are not top draw” but then the 5th of them together represents good strength in depth, even if no individual is World Class.
And with a lack of top strikers on the market, that is perhaps where Arsenal need to get to. We perhaps need that selection of forwards – Jesus, Gabriel Martinelli, Leandro Trossard, Giminez / Gyokeres / Toney – who on their own might not be World Class, but allow us to have a World Class squad.
Sesko and Ferguson are in a similar boat for me – both are young and clearly talented, but I am not confident either would make a big enough impact next season.
There would be that hanging doubt though that £60m on Giminez / Gyokeres could be a huge waste. And for that reason I would maybe have Ian Toney in pole position.
I am sure my opinion will change after the next interview Toney does…
Morning! First proper blog since returning from Egypt.
Cairo is a brilliant, mental, crazy place that I would advise anyone spending 3-4 days in to properly acclimatise to the city. Sharm el Sheikh on the other hand was bland, boring and disinteresting. It had no culture and nothing of interest to really do. No real “local town” to immerse yourself in. The Caribbean trumps Sharm a million to one.
David Ornstein did a Q&A yesterday in The Athletic where he answered fan questions. These sessions are more like a podcast, used to drive subscribers to the media outlet, and are more what Ornstein’s opinion is rather than him sharing information he has – although his opinion comes from a a knowledge base often a lot higher than your standard podcaster.
During the Q&A, Ornstein spoke about departures saying “so much of this [summer business] will be contingent on exits”. He then went on to name the 6 men that Arsenal could look to cash in on. None of them were groundbreaking names:
Aaron Ramsdale
I get some fans still have a love for Ramsdale. My view has always been people like him more due to his character rather than his ability. Rambo is a decent keeper, but I just feel David Raya is that level ahead.
After a shakey start, Raya has settled down now and is a secure choice between the posts. He is superior to Ramsdale in almost every area.
Selling Ramsdale for in excess of £40million and buying Raya for £27m makes complete sense.
With his departure, we would need to sign a second choice keeper – but we need to do that if Ramsdale stays and Raya is not made permanent. Keeping both is an unlikely option.
That new keeper will probably cost the surplus between Raya and Ramsdale, which will still mean balanced books rather than having the negative outlay of a new 2nd choice keeper.
I would expect the likes of Newcastle and Brentford to both be in for Ramsdale. Maybe Chelsea and Brighton as well.
Kieran Tierney
Absolutely love Tierney and I think he can be credited for a lot of the culture change at Arsenal, and was clearly a positive impact on young players come through alongside Rob Holding. The pair provided positive professional role models to youngsters as an alternative to his brash, egocentric team mates. However I think his time at Arsenal has come to an end.
I have never doubted Tierney’s talent. He is a fantastic, old school left back. But that is not what Arsenal need under Mikel Arteta.
Last season, when called upon to play the inverted role, Tierney struggled. He had neither the technical ability, awareness or physical attributes to play the role. You could question as to why Arteta would ask him to play a role he was not suitable for, and whether the Spaniard should have tweaked the tactics slightly to accommodate him replacing Olexandr Zinchenko.
Over the summer, the recruitment team addresses the issue by signing Jurrien Timber. We also have Takehiro Tomiyasu and Jakub Kiwior who can play on that left hand side. That left Tierney as 4th choice and was a big reason for his loan move.
Out on loan to Real Sociedad, he has picked up 2 injuries to add to his ever-elongating list. That makes it 9 spells on the sidelines since joining us in 2019.
Tierney joined on a 5-year deal in 2019 for £25m. In 2021 he signed a new 5-year extension. That means he has around £6million in book value left, so any sale above this would represent a profit.
Despite his injuries, someone will take a risk on Tierney. He turns 27 this summer and you can see someone like West Ham, Aston Villa or Newcastle taking a punt. I would be surprised if he leaves for less than £20m.
Nuno Tavares
The Portuguese left back was a punt that did not work out. You can see why scouts across Europe were excited about him; Nuno Tavares is physically and technically brilliant. But he has a lot of rough edges which he has not been able to iron out.
At times for Marseille last season on loan, Tavares looked a world beater. Then he would turn to Sunday League level. All within the same game!
Nottingham Forest have an option to buy for around £12million, but considering he has hardly played for them and their impending financial sanctions, I would be surprised if a deal happens.
A move abroad (potentially back to France), could be best for him as I just can not see a Premier League club moving for him. Arsenal will do well to recoup the £8m we paid for him (although we have already made some of this back in loan deals).
If you account for what we have received in loan fees, we only really need to sell Tavares for around £2m to see a “book profit”.
Albert Sambi Lokonga
Lokonga is finally fulfilling some of his potential in recent weeks whilst on loan at Luton. This has lead some Arsenal fans to call for him to have a second chance at the club. This can not happen.
To put it simply, being good enough for Luton does not mean you are good enough for Arsenal; and we now need to be looking at recruiting players better than the Belgium (Martin Zubimendi) to continue moving forward as a club.
With just 2-years left on his contract, Lokonga remaining at Arsenal would also mean a new 5-year deal. That would be a huge risk after 2 years of underwhelming football and a good half dozen games for Luton.
The good news is that his form has put him in the news, and you can certainly see someone like Everton signing him to replace Andre Onana, or Luton making him their key signing if they stay up.
He has a book value remaining of around £4m. I would expect him to be sold for around £20m which would represent a £16m profit in this years accounts.
Emile Smith Rowe
Long term readers will know that Emile Smith Rowe has been on my “out” list for a few years.
It is not that I do not rate him, it is just that he can not stay fit. And the hype he had around him 2 years ago meant we could have got in excess of £40m.
Smith Rowe has always had his injury problems. He has issues as a kid and these have continued into adulthood. He reminds me a bit of Darren Anderton – you know there is a player there but he just can not stay fit.
The Englishman turns 24 in July and it will be two injury interrupted seasons since his breakthrough in 2021/22. I think we need to move forward from him. Make the sale, bank the 100% profit and get in someone who is physically more reliable.
Despite his injury record, plenty of Premier League teams will be in for him, and you can certainly see him going for above £30m – Crystal Palace (Smith Rowe is Croydon born), looks a good option if either Michael Olise or Eberechi Eze depart.
That £30m+ will be 100% book profit as he has come through the academy.
Eddie Nketiah
I have defended Nketiah over the years, pushing him as a good option for a 2nd choice striker. However, he has not kicked on this season and, with Gabriel Jesus’ injuries, I think we need a new front line forward.
An incoming first choice striker would see Jesus forced into a new role at Arsenal where he becomes the back up forward across the front 3. That would leave Nketiah as 3rd choice at best, an clearly surpluses to requirements.
Like Smith Rowe, as Eddie is from the academy any sale would be a 100% book profit.
West Ham, Crystal Palace, Everton, Brentford and Bournemouth could all be in the market for a new striker this summer. I can see a fee of a minimum of £20m. This could quickly rise above £30m if there is enough interest.
Book value
For those that do not understand, a players book value is how much of his initial transfer fee has not yet been fully amortised. For academy players, they have a book value of £0m.
A players transfer fee is amortised over the length of their contract. If they sign a new deal, the outstanding fee yet amortised is then spread out over the length of their new contract.
For example, Kieran Tierney joined in 2019 for £25m on a 5-year deal. His fee would have been amortised at £5m a year. In 2021 he signed a new 5-year deal. At this point £10m of his fee would have been amortised, with £15m remaining. This would then be amortised at £3m a year over the next 5-years. As of the end of this season, we would have accounted for £19m of his initial £25m fee (£10m + £9m). That leaves £6m to be amortised.
When you sell a player, the remaining book value must be fully accounted for in the same year as they were sold. The incoming transfer fee then establishes whether you make a book profit or loss on the player.
So for example, we signed Nicolas Pepe for £72m, and his contract was being amortised at £14.4m a year. Had we sold him after 2 years for £30m, we would have ended up having a £43.2m cost hit our accounts, with only £30m of incoming transfer fees. That means we would have made a £13.2m loss in the year we would have sold him. The result of that is we would have less money to spend, despite making the sale!.
Final thoughts
Ramsdale’s departure will provide the cash for David Raya and also pay off Rambo’s remaining book value. With Raya’s fee then being amortised, we should be able to get in a second choice keeper without seeing a yearly expenses on fees increase. The 3 deals will almost be “net zero”.
If we then sell the other 5 mentioned in the blog for the prices rumoured, it will account for around £100m book profit. That clears us nicely of any PSR concerns and is cash we can immediately re-invest into new signings.
For 2023 we made a £38m loss. That will turn into around a £60m profit for 2024 due to Champions League football. Whilst some of the expected profit will be used for transfer fees, we will need to start banking the cash again to cover the next rainy day.
We have lost £328m in the last 6 years and seen our cash balance drop nearly £200m to finance these losses. Last year we borrowed £63m and we have debt increases from £197m in 2018 to £276m in 2023.
Arsenal submit 2023 accounts. Key figures Revenue record £467m ⬆️25% Wages £235m ⬆️11% Underlying loss £38m ⬇️41% Player purchases £251m Player sales £21M
No Champions League football in those 6-years has cost us over £500m in revenue, whilst player sales have also been poor during the period – just £44m made in player sales in the last 3-years.
Whilst this might all sound like bad news, the additional Champions League revenue and some good player sales should allow us to spend in excess of £120m again (after Raya), whilst still putting some cash away for that rainy day.
My bet is a new striker (£50-70m), Zubimendi / Douglas Luiz (£50m) and David Raya (£27m), will be our transfer dealings for this year. Any further new signings will only come if we sell those listed above for more than what is expected!
Nearly the weekend…
Keenos
Last year we launched our new shin pad range with these! Artwork designed by @CarlBourkeArt
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 