It was always going to happen, wasn’t it? The second it was announced that Alexander Isak was looking to jump ship at Newcastle, some Arsenal fans were going to cry that “if we were a serious club, we would drop our interest in Gyorekes and go for Isak”. But Arsenal are right not to pivot.

Too late in the day

A lot of fans often forget that football is not a computer game. It is simply too late in the day to drop our interest in Gyroekes. Contracts have been signed, paperwork swapped. It would be like to deciding to pull out of a house the day before completion because another property has come onto the market.

The same fans saying that we should pivot are also those that have complained daily that we have “not yet signed a striker”.

So what they now want is for us to drop the deal which is due to complete in the next 2-3 days, and beginning negotiating with Newcastle United for Isak.

No one knows how long those negotiations would take, and even whether they would be successful. Meanwhile, Gyorekes would quickly move on if if changed plans at this last minute (likely to Manchester United), and we could be left with no one.

Back to the house analogy, you pull out a of a deal the day before completion, and then have to start the process again for the new house you have seen on Right Move. That adds another 3 months (at least) before you can move, and there is no guarantee that the seller will want to sell to you.

And again, the same fans who demand we go for Isak would then moan we do not have a new striker come 1 September as we could not get Isak offer the line.

Isak is younger by age, but not by milage

This blog is going to be filled with analogies.

So I have an 8-year-old Ford Sierra I am selling (I will not need it at my new house). It has 40,000 miles on the clock. My missus has a 6-year-old Ford Sierra. It has 60,000 miles on the clock. Which one are you buying?

Being younger in age does not always mean younger in body, if you have more miles on the clock.

For a start, Isak is just 15-months younger than Gyorekes. It really is not a factor. But in “football years”, they are the same age.

Isak has played 364 senior games for club and country, Gyorekes has played 359. In terms of playing time, they are nearly identical.

Whilst Isak has greater higher-level experience, you also then need to factor in that he has spent longer at the highest level in terms of keeping his body at peak condition. Gyorekes, meanwhile, has just two season of top flight conditioning under him. That means he is less likely to have the long term wear and tear that comes with top flight fitness work.

I would not be surprised if Gyorekes is still performing in the top flight (somewhere) into his mid-30s. Whilst Isak looks like one of those that come 31, he will be done. And a lot of that is down to their respective injury records.

Injury record

Three years ago, the choice for Arsenal was between Gabriel Jesus and Alexander Isak.

One was Premier League proven, the other had just a single high-performing season in La Liga under his belt. For me, and the club, it was a no brainer.

Factored into the decision-making was Isak’s injury record. The Swede, despite being just 21, had already begun picking up lots of niggling injuries. And that has continued at Newcastle.

Mikel Arteta has spoken recently about signing more players who can influence a game over 90 minutes. And whilst Isak’s natural talent is not in doubt, his fitness is.

Isak is almost guaranteed to miss half a dozen league games a season. And when he does play, he struggles to complete 90 minutes.

In the 42 games across all competitions last season, Isak completed just 16.

If the niggling injuries continue, there will become a point in the next year or two where Isak’s time needs to be managed. Where training needs to become less intense. And they are huge caveats for a man that will come with such a big fee and wage.

Meanwhile, Goyerekes is a fitness freak. He played 52 games for Sporting last season, including 33 out of their 34 Liga Portugal games. Of those 52 games, he completed 90 minutes in 41 of them.

So on one hand, we have a player that rarely misses a game. On the other, you have someone who will likely miss 10-20% of your season. And that is a huge factor when talking about the money.

Isak’s huge cost

I never have an issue with what we spend, as long as what a player costs does not impact other business we need to do.

Newcastle will likely demand in excess of £120m for Isak. That is almost twice as much as what Gyorekes is costing. Meanwhile, Isak himself will likely look for wages around the £300k mark. Again, nearly twice the £150k we are expected to get Gyorekes for.

Taking into account that they have the same miles on the clock, Isak’s injury record and their comparable scoring record for country and in Europe, is Isak worth twice as much as Gyorekes? I do not think so.

Granted, I think Isak is the better player. And most importantly, he is Premier League proven. But I do not think those factors justify an extra £60m in transfer fee and £150k a week.

Were we to sign Isak rather than Gyorekes, we would have to make a saving elsewhere in the transfer window. And put simply, signing Isak would result in us signing one less player elsewhere.

Now some of you will say “we should not have signed Madueke, and put that money towards Isak”. And I get this simplistic thinking.

Not signing Madueke would have still left us relying on just Ethan Nwaneri to cover Bukayo Saka. The teenager is also the cover for Martin Odegaard. I do not think not signing some cover for Saka was an option this season.

And then likewise, we should not have sacrificed Martin Zubimendi, Christian Norgaard, Kepa or Cristhian Mosquera to free up the money for Isak. All were positions that it was essential we made signings in.

It would be a different story if we did not have the money for Gyorekes. Then ys, we would need to sacrifice one or two squad signings to free up the money. But we do have that money so we have been able to raise both the ceiling and floor of our squad this season.

We are also still in the market for a left-winger. Moving for Isak now, having completed other business, would shelve that idea.

Signing Isak would basically be sacrificing strengthening elsewhere in the team. And I do not think Isak ability over Gyorekes is worth sacrificing a new left winger or cover for Saka for.

For me, I would rather Gyorekes and Madueke over Isak. Especially (again), when you factor in that Isak will miss 10-20% of the season. That will just put more strain on the likes of Saka who can then not be rested as we have no cover.

Moving on with Gyorekes

We have done some tremendous business this summer and strengthened across the park.

Once Gyorekes is in the bag, it is only the left wing that we need to look at.

It makes zero sense to pivot to Isak this late in the game. Especially considering there is no guarantee he will get him and no guarantee Gyorekes will stay on the hook for another 2-3 weeks whilst we negotiate. We could end up with none.

I also would not want to sacrifice strengthening elsewhere to go big for Isak. Unless, of course, the plan will be to have both Gyorekes and Isak, with one playing wider like they do for Sweden.

Isak is a huge risk with his injury record and pricetag. We are right not to drop Gyorekes and move for his national team mate.

Keenos

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