Have Arsenal dropped a level in attack?

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Following the West Ham game, the consensus seemed to be that Mikel Arteta was correct in resting most of his strongest XI, and that meant we would always struggle to beat a full strength West Ham team.

As usual, some fans went OTT with their criticism, saying that results against the Hammers, Lens and Chelsea showed we had gone backwards from last season. They seem to have forgotten about:

  • Brighton – when we lost 3-1 at home in the League Cup. A worse performance by our 2nd string than Wednesday night.
  • PSV – when we lost away in the Europa League. Not to disimilar to the Lens game
  • Manchester United – when we lost 3-1 away to a poor United team. At least we took a point from Stamford Bridge

We also had games such as Sporting (both of them), southampton (both of them), Everton away, Brentford and home, Bournemouth and Aston Villa (last minute winners!) and those games against Liverpool and West Ham where we threw away a 2-goal lead.

Last year we were certainly not infallible, and we had many a game where we did not play great and failed to win.

There is also a feeling that we are not quite as danagerous an attacking outfit as last year. That we do not look as slick and clinical in the final 3rd. But is this true?

Goal scored

The most basic way of comparing if we have gone forward or backwards as an attacking unit.

After 10 games in 2022/23, we had scored 24 league goals.
In 2023/24, it is 23 league goals.

Just a single goal less scored this year in the league than last. you would expect that to be a lot bigger to have a noticable difference on the pitch.

So maybe it is that we are scoring as many, but not creating as much?

Expected goals

After 10-games last season, we had an xG of 20.30. This season our xG is 19.89.

That shows that we are have basically created level of chances this year as last. And that is why we have scored pretty much the same as last year.

Like with goals scored, you would expect if we were playing noticable worse in the final 3rd, there would be a huge difference.

So we are (almost) equaling last years attacking output despite

Gabriel Jesus being out

Last season, the introduction of Gabriel Jesus made us very exciting in attack. His movement and fluidity transformed us!

Gabi has started just 4 league games this season, so is it any surprise that we might not look as fluid in attack without our best striker?

Eddie Nketiah is much more of a “stay in the middle” type striker. We saw last season when Jesus was out that the front 3 were not quite as scintilating with Eddie up top.

That does not mean we are any less of an attacking threat, just that without Jesus that attack is different, a little more formulaic rather than off-the-cuff.

And Martinelli also missing

Whilst Bukayo Saka is easily our best forward, I think Gabriel Martinelli is our most exciting. He gets bums off seats with the way he plays.

Like Gabriel Jesus, Martinelli has spent some time in the medical room this season. He has started just 7 of the 10 games.

Martinelli has certainly not looked as sharp this season as last – one goal after the first 10 games of the season this season compared to 4 last. His struggle for form and fitness has made us a little less exciting in attack, even though we are clearly just as potent.

Bukayo Saka not 100%

On the other wing, Bukayo Saka has not quite looked 100% all season. Despite this, he already has 4 goals to his name (compared to 3 goals after 10 league games last season).

You have to think just how high the ceiling is for this team if we think that Jesus has been out injured, and Martinelli and Saka out of form.

If we have scored 1-less goal this season compared to last, just wait until these boys begin to hit their stride.

Starting slower

And I expect them to hit their stride in the 2nd half of the season.

Title winning teams tend to pick up pace in the title running. They aim to peak for the last 10-games of the season, not the first 10.

Last season, we started hard and fast, and then ran out of steam in the closing stages. City, meanwhile, started a little slower and did not hit top gear until the 2nd half of the season.

We certainly look like we are are playing in 3rd gear rather than 5th gear right now, and for me that is exciting as we are holding back our peak performances for the run-in.

Compare that to spurs who look like they are already playing at 100%, they will run out of steam a bit like we did last season.

A case for the defence

Despite conceding twice in 3 games already this season, we are better defensively this year than last with 8 goals conceded against 10 in 2022/23.

So we are potentially playing a little more cautiously than last season, a little less “gung-ho” and the result is just the 1 goal less scored and 2 less conceded.

Last season we conceded more than 1-goal a game. That is too much if you want to win the title. If we can concede less than 2022/23 whilst scoring a similar amount, we should be in a good position to win the league.

A few less 3-2’s, a few more 2-nils. I am happy with “boring football” that does not seem as attacking, yet generates just as many goals whilst conceding less.

11 different goal scorers

So how have we managed to score just 1-goal less than last season, whilst our front 3 have looked out of form and / or not fit? Mutiple goalscorers.

Arteta has continued with last seasons philosphy of having goals all over the pitch. We sacrifice a single scorer of a lot of goals for numerous scorers of many. This season we have already had 11 different goal scorers in the league.

Tottenham have had 8 different scorers this season, Manchester City 7.

We are the most unpredictable of the top 3 when it comes to scoring goals. They come from all over the park and from corners and set pieces as well.

The Arsenal have also scored more this season than Manchester City and Tottenham – a stat that might surprise you considering how Spurs have been praised for their free flowing attacking football.

This season was always going to be a little underwhelming compared to last seasons start.

The fact we are just 2-points and 1 goal down on last seasons 10 game total shows that we have a new normal.

24 points and 23 goals from the opening 10-games has us on target for 90+ points and 87 goals. If that is us going backwards, I look forward to when we click into top gear and start playing well.

Enjoy the game today to all those travelling up!

Keenos

Arteta right in shuffling the pack despite League Cup exit

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Out of the League Cup again. A competition that is coming up to 30-years of us not winning.

I have always had a love hate relationship with the competition.

On one hand, it is a trophy, a trip to Wembley. On the other, it is the least important of the 4 trophies we are chasing and if you do not win it, you have just added more games to an already heavy schedule.

The best comment I read on or exit was “for Arsenal, it was one of our least important games of the season, for West Ham, it was their most important”.

And this translated on the pitch as we put out a nearly full 2nd XI whilst West Ham put out their strongest – Gabriel and Ben White are the only two man gauranteed a start for us week in week out.

I do enjoy watching their bi-polar fans. They really are a rollercoaster to watch on social media. Probably the most reactionary fanbase out there.

When they lose a game, everything is doom and gloom. The stadium is horrible, Moyes awful and should be sacked, the players not good enough. Win a game and it is a cauldron of a stadium, Moyes masterclass and the team is better than last year.

For clarity, the London Stadium is the worst in the Premier League. It is not a football stadium. It is an athletic stadium that they play football in.

“Champions of Europe, you will never sing that” sums them up. Winning a European trophy does not make them Champions of Europe. And if it doesn, we have won 2 in our history.

They will claim that chant and talking about West Ham being massive is “just banter”, but I think some of the Mockney boys genuinely have delusions of grander and think they are a massive club.

Lsot against Brentford on Saturday, and it will be back to doom and gloom and calling for the managers head in Essex.

Meanwhile, we march on in our title race.

Between the October and November international breaks, we have played / are playing twice a week. 7 games in 21 days. West Ham is the least important fixture on this list:

Saturday: Chelsea (A)
Tuesday: Sevilla (A)
Saturday: Sheffield United (H)
Wednesday: West Ham (A)
Saturday: Newcastle (A)
Wednesday: Sevilla (H)
Saturday: Burnley (H)

Now yes, West Ham have a similar workload to us, but they have been shuffling the pack in Europe – a week ago Moyes made 7-changes as his team lost away to Olympiakos.

Moyes chose that game to give his first team a break, we decided the League Cup will be the best.

If we beat Newcastle on Saturday at St James Park, then the League Cup sacrifice will be worth it.

I feel like the League Cup this season will be won by one of those mid-table teams – Chelsea, Newcastle, West Ham. They are the sides that are not looking at top 4 so can take the minor competition more seriously. It might also be their best chance to get into Europe next season.

We have bigger fish to fry, and join Manchester City and Totteham out of the competition. I wonder when was the last time that the quarter finals of the League Cup did not contain any of the top 3 in the Premier League?

The fact that Newcastle is tomorrow shows why it was important to shuffle the pack on Wednesday. We all would have moaned had Bukayo Saka et al played, and one of them picked up an injury.

On to Newcastle…

Keenos

MATCH REPORT: West Ham 3 – 1 Arsenal

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West Ham United (1) 3 Arsenal (0) 1

Carabao Cup (EFL Cup) Fourth Round
London Stadium, London E20 2ST
Wednesday, 1st November 2023. Kick-off time: 7.30pm

(4-3-3) Aaron Ramsdale; Ben White, Jakob Kiwior, Gabriel Magalhães, Oleksandr Zinchenko; Fábio Vieira, (Jorge Luiz Frello Filho) Jorginho (c), Kai Havertz; Reiss Nelson, Eddie Nketiah, Leandro Trossard.

Substitutes: William Saliba, Bukayo Saka, Martin Ødegaard, Gabriel Martinelli, Cédric Soares, Takehiro Tomiyasu, Mohamed Elneny, Karl Hein, Declan Rice.

Scorers: Martin Ødegaard (90+5 mins)
Arsenal Possession Percentage: 71%

Referee: Simon Hooper
Assistant Referees: Darren Cann, Sam Lewis
Fourth Official: Sam Barrott
Attendance: c.62,000

Gabriel Jesus will not feature in tonight’s match at the London Stadium because of a hamstring injury, and midfielder Thomas Partey is also absent with a muscle injury. Our captain Martin Ødegaard is again likely to be rested as he recovers from a hip problem, but he is fit enough to command a place on the substitute’s bench, and Jorginho will be wearing the captain’s armband tonight in his absence. Of course, there is no VAR available for the Carabao Cup until the semi-finals of the competition.

As is the case with many a cup match, it was a nervous start from both teams tonight. We certainly had the best of the early exchanges, although the home side had an early chance to open the scoring when Lucas Paqueta put a through ball into the path of Jarrod Bowen, but fortunately it overshot straight into the arms of Aaron Ramsdale. We won a free-kick over on the left wing when Kai Havertz was brought down, and the subsequent free-kick which was taken by Reiss Nelson was headed towards the West Ham goal, only for Lukasz Fabianski to tip it over the crossbar for a corner, which sadly went nowhere. After just fifteen minutes, the home side took the lead when a Jarrod Bowen corner was met awkwardly by Ben White, who accidentally headed it into his own net; but on the other hand, camera replays have clearly shown that Tomas Soucek had a hold of Aaron Ramsdale’s shirt before the goal, which would have been disallowed had VAR been in operation tonight. The goal woke us up somewhat and we snapped back at West Ham with several good chances from our strikers. Although we were under pressure at times, we remained calm and resolute with crisp passing and good movement both on and off the ball. A Ben White header from a Reiss Nelson free-kick was tipped over the bar by Lukasz Fabianski for a corner which, although was good, was easily cleared by the West Ham defence. After former Gunner Konstantinos Mavropanos won a corner after running with the ball into our penalty area, Jarrod Bowen’s corner was cleared easily, but there appeared to be an argument between Aaron Ramsdale and Tomas Soucek which was quickly neutralised by the referee. After a Reiss Nelson shot which was blocked from twenty yards, Kai Havertz headed wide from the resulting corner which was disappointing. Eddie Nketiah blasted a ball over the crossbar from close range, and as half-time beckoned, our attacks intensified, but we were unable to find a way through the West Ham defence, so as referee Simon Hooper blew the whistle for the hiatus, we were left wondering how we could turn this around in the next forty-five minutes.

We kicked off the second half of this Carabao Cup fourth round tie, with the expectation that we can get something out of this match here at the London Stadium tonight. However, we were almost two goals down when Jarrod Bowen ran through on our goal, but Aaron Ramsdale managed to get a hand to it, and fortunately Ben White was on hand to clear the danger. A couple of minutes later, a long ball caught out our defenders, but found Mohammed Kudus who placed the ball past Aaron Ramsdale to score the home side’s second goal. West Ham are on the ascendancy now, looking and hunting for a third goal and in doing so, putting our defenders under pressure. From our point of view, the match was starting to go flat, and so eleven minutes after the restart, Declan Rice and Takehiro Tomiyasu replaced Jorginho and Oleksandr Zinchenko in order to try to make a difference and salvage something from this match. Just before the hour, we were three goals down when Jarrod Bowen struck a ball that bounced off Jakob Kiwior’s thigh and ricocheted off Aaron Ramsdale’s right arm and into the net. Obviously, the home side’s tails were up now, and it is going to have to be something special for us to get any kind of result here tonight. Gabriel Martinelli and Bukayo Saka replaced Leandro Trossard and Reiss Nelson after sixty-six minutes to bring something different to the forwrd line for the remainder of the game. The introduction of the new players meant that it had given us scope to move forward and score, but the home side proved difficult to break down, despite some very good passing moves from our chaps. Eddie Nketiah was replaced by Martin Ødegaard with eleven minutes of the match remaining, and although we were finding our players well, there was no end product. It was truly not happening for us tonight. Martin Ødegaard hit a decent shot from distance, but Lukasz Fabianski easily picked it up. During the five minutes injury time period, we continued to press the home side, and right on the end of the game, Martin Ødegaard hit a low shot past Lukasz Fabianski and into the back of the net, to at least save our blushes a little bit; but too little too late. The referee blew the final whistle a minute or so later, and were were unceremoniously ejected from the Carabao Cup.

An awful evening overall for us, despite seventy-one per cent possession and very little or no end product to mention. At times we looked flat, uninspired and lost, and yet at early points in the match we looked as if we could get a result at the London Stadium, but as the match wore on, we slipped further and further behind, and as the goals went in, we found it nore and more difficult to raise our game and despite bringing on some top substitutes, the match looked further away from us than ever. We just have to pick ourselves up and get a result at the Emirates aginst Newcastle United late on Saturday afternoon, otherwise there will be some serious questions asked. Just one of those nights. Most disappointing

Remember everyone, keep the faith, get behind the team and the manager, as this season is going to be crucial for our future success in all competitions. Stick with the winners. Our next match: Newcastle United at the Emirates on Saturday, 4th November at 5.30pm (Premier League). Be there, if you can. Victoria Concordia Crescit.

Steve

Too Dearly Loved To Be Forgotten: Arsenal v Racing Club de Paris 1930-1962 by Steve Ingless (Rangemore Publications, ISBN 978-1-5272-0135-4) is now available on Amazon