Long term readers of the blog (all 4 of you) will know that over the summer, I often put up an argument as to why we had not bought another striker.
My simple reasoning was that:
a) There were not too many strikers in the market that were available and be happy joining to be 2nd choice to Gabriel Jesus. And many of these level players went for an unreasonable price.
b) Having spent £200m, we did not have much left in the pot to sign someone better than Gabriel Jesus.
In conclusion, I always stated that I think a new forward will be bought next year. That will enable us to solve both problems mentioned above.
We now have 12 months for our scouts to unearth a gem. Find someone like a Jurrien Timber that no one is talking about right now. Run the rule over them for the season and then sign them in the summer of 2024.
Alternatively, with no real obvious big money requirements next season, we might opt to invest heavily into a top striker who can play ahead of Jesus. It is this second one that I can see happening.
Next season I expect us to do similar business as we did this signing – one big, big money signing and 2 mid-range signings.
One of those mid-range signings will be a Thomas Partey replacement. Expect us to spend maybe £40m on someone who can cover Declan Rice (and provide an option when Rice is further forward). The 2nd one might be David Raya.
That leaves us with being able to spend big money on a new striker. And the man on everyones lips right now is Evan Ferguson.
Evan Ferguson is the best teenage striker I have seen since Wayne Rooney.
I remember when Rooney announced himself on the scene with THAT goal against Arsenal.
Rooney was just a few days shy of his 17th birthday when he scored a worldie against David Seaman in 2002, ending our unbeaten away run.
What stood out about him is that he already looked like a man. He was physically ready for senior football. No one was saying “good talent, but needs to hit the gym”. And Ferguson is similar.
Ferguson joined Brighton in January 2001 and made his debut at just 17 years old.
Last season, Roberto De Zerbi held him back a little bit, slowly introducing him into the first team/ He scored 6 Premier League goals in 19 games. This season he has hit the ground running with 4 goals in the opening 4 games.
Like Rooney, he does not look like a boy playing a mans game.
Ferguson is a big boy and solidly built. At a young age, you do not look at him and think “he will be bullied by defenders”.
He reminds me a bit of Harry Kane in that he can play as a target man, with his back to goal, but when he faces the goal he more often than not looks immediately for a shooting opportunity.
Happy to come short, as well as run in behind, he has the work rate that modern strikers need.
Ferguson is also not just a tap in merchant. Since his debut, he has scored a range of goals from tap ins to goals from distance and running in behind.
Whilst Erling Haaland might be a better goal scorer than Ferguson (right now), I think the Irishman has more to his game.
Beyond scoring goals, Haaland does not do much else on the football pitch. you can handle that when he is bagging 40+ a season. Ferguson gets involved in Brighton;s build up play.
Playing for De Zerbi’s Brighton, he is often asked to drop deeper and play as a 10, playing Kane-Esque flicks behind the opposing full back to set his winger clear. This is something you very rarely see Haaland do.
Against Newcastle, he scored a fabulous hat trick and became the 4th youngest player in Premier League history to do so (Michael Owen, Robbie Fowler and Chris Bart-Williams those who did it younger).
Now some will now be saying “but £100m+ for a player with 18 months senior football. That is a lot of money”. But if Ferguson scores 20+ goals this season as he turns 19, it will be well worth it.
Winding the clock back to 2004, Manchester United for a pound short of £30million.
Rooney was a few months shy of his 19th birthday and had scored just 15 goals for Everton. It was seen as a huge risk – £30m was probably the equivalent of £120m now!
At the time, a friend of mine said “big money, but Manchester United have signed a potentially world class forward who will lead their line for 10 years”.
Rooney would end up going on to play for Manchester United for 13 years, scoring 253 goals for them. The investment paid off.
And I see Ferguson as being similar.
You spend close to £120m for him, you are getting a striker who will score you bucket loads of goals for over a decade (injury permitting).
The alternative is you spend, say, £50m on Ivan Toney. At the age of 27, he only has 4 or 5 years left at the top. So in 5 years time you are having to invest another £50m+ on another striker.
You could spend £100-120m over the 10 years on 2 or 3 different first choice strikers. Or you spend £120m on one striker for the next 10-years.
There will be a battle for Ferguson’s signature with clubs from home and abroad chasing him. But it is a race I think Arsenal can win.
Real Madrid and Barcelona would be seriously consider him. I think the Spanish pair will be our biggest competition.
Elsewhere abroad, Bayern Munich now have their striker, whilst I think PSG is now no longer seen as an attractive option for young, hungry players.
Closer to home, Manchester City have Haaland, so will only move if the Norwegian decides to call it a day with them after two seasons.
Manchester United have just invested heavily in Rasmus Højlund. The Nicklas Bendtner looked a handful on his debut against us and you have to think they will stick with him for a bit.
Chelsea would certainly be in the market for a new striker, but at some point their big spending will catch up on them. Meanwhile Spurs failed to sign a replacement for Kane in the summer. Can not see Ferguson retiring from trophies and signing for them though.
That leaves us and Liverpool. Both realistic options. You might get Newcastle sniffing around if they are looking to make a statement.
What would this mean for Jesus?
Well Ferguson will still only be 19 -years-old, so you can not expect him to play 50 games a season. Jesus has also had a run of worrying injuries since joining, so you wonder whether he is robust enough to lead the line for 50 games.
Jesus also provides an option as cover for Saka and Martinelli on the wingers, and can play centrally in behind Ferguson. There would certainly be enough games to accomodate the pair.
Arsenal is an exciting place to be right now and we have one of the most exciting young managers in the game. Mikel Arteta showed with Declan Rice that he has a pull. When he gets on the phone to players to discuss his plans, they are drawn in, they are sold the dream.
For now, this is just a pipe dream. But Ferguson will be on our wish list. And I think we would be in pole position to sign him if we make our moves early.
Keenos
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 