What are your expectations for this season?

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On the morning of the season, it is time to have a little look at what our expectation level is for the forthcoming campaign.

No one could have predicted what we did in 2022/23. To go from 24 points behind the champions in 2021/22 to just 5 points behind last season was a fantastic rise, even if ultimately we ended up trophyless.

Going into this season, expectations will naturally be higher than the “finish top 4” that most of us would have said 12 months ago. But it is also important to be realistic.

Yes, we have spent big this summer, recruiting the likes of Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber. But we needed to go big to continue closing that gap on Manchester City.

Some will point to “net spend since 2018” in an attempt to put pressure on Mikel Arteta (and to make it seem like Pep Guardiola is successful on a shoe string), but that ignores City’s decade plus investment.

In 2022/23, their squad cost a combined £824m in transfer fees (net spend really means nothing!). Arsenal’s 2022/23 squad cost us £455m. So even with the £250m (if David Raya signs) spent this summer, our squad cost will still be a couole of hundred million behind Man City’s.

Anyone that says “if we do not win the title, then it is a failure for Arteta” clearly does not understand how much difference that £200m+ extra investment in City’s squad makes. It would be like adding Erling Haaland, Kevin de Bruyne and John Stones to the current Arsenal team.

Some are already saying Arteta should be sacked if he does not win the title. They are the same people that 24 months ago that they did not care he had won the FA Cup, it was all about top 4. Then 12 months ago said he should be sacked if we do not make top 4. Then when we made top 2, said that he should be sacked for failing to win a trophy.

These sort of fans will always change the narrative to suit their agenda. There agenda being that they want Arteta sacked. They would see finishing behind Man City as a failure, even if City went and got 95+ points!

I would always consider myself a level headed, realistic fan. I am never too optimistic, never too pessimistic.

League: Our minimum targer should always be top 4.

Whilst some might see that as a “loser mentality” having finished 2nd last season, it also shows a lack of respect for those other sides around us.

We had an unbelievable start to last season. And as good as we were, Liverpool were as equally bad. I do not expect for Liverpool to be as poor again in their opening 15 games of the season.

Post World Cup (14 games played, 24 to go), the “mini-league” read:

Man City – 57 points
Man Utd – 49
Arsenal – 47
Liverpool – 45

There was clearly not much between us, Man U and Liverpool after the World Cup. We could end up finishing 4th, but just 4 points off second. For me, that would not really be a failure.

Chelsea will also return stronger this season under Mauricio Pochettino.

Throw in Newcastle (and maybe even Aston Villa), and there are 7 teams that will be thinking they can get top 4. It is never been tougher to finish top 4 in the Premier League. And for that reason you can not start sacking a manager just because he finishes out the top 4 places.

Cups – I am always reluctant to say “a good cup run” or “win a cup”. This is due to the luck of the draw.

Say we get Man City away in the 3rd round of the League Cup and FA Cup 3rd round. Would it be failure to lose both? No.

Likewise, say we get lower league teams up until the Semi-Finals of the both the FA Cup and League Cup’s, and then lose to West Ham and Brighton, I would consider that a failure.

Losing to West Ham and Brighton is clearly a worse result than losing to Man City, so even if we got further in the competition, it is about who we go out too.

Europe – I see success in the Champions League for us this season as getting out of the group stages.

We are in Pot 2 of the Champions League, with the only real dangers in Pot 3 being AC Milan and Lazio. We would be very unlucky to end up in a group of Real Madrid, AC Milan and Union Berlin.

Then like with the cups, our progress will depend on who we face next.

Last year, for example, Inter Milan finished 2nd in their group. They then faced Porto, Benfica and AC Milan to reach the final.

Knockout stages of the Champions League is sufficient for this season, but if we do drop into the Europa League, I would expect us to win it.

We were excellent last season. I see this season as a year of consolidating our position.

Another top 4 finish, stay as close to City as we can, knockout stages of the Champions League. And if we pick up a cup on the way then brilliant!

What are your expectations for this season?

Keenos

Boyhood Arsenal fan finally set for move to big club

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For around a decade, Spurs have been in denial.

“His one of our own, his one of our owwwwwwn, Harry Kane, his one of our own”.

They tried to paint Harry Kane as a boyhood Spurs fan. A lad from Walthamstow, who grew up just the other side of the reservoirs. Could almost see the ground from his house.

Even when pictures came out of him as a 10-year-old, wearing an Arsenal shirt, hair died red for Freddie Ljungberg and at Arsenal’s invincible parade, Spurs would still claim he was one of their own.

They dismissed the above picture as “just a child wearing a shirt” and “he might have been an Arsenal fan at 10”. And that might be true.

But what they are then saying is that at 10-years-old, he was an Arsenal fan. When he was a boy, he was an Arsenal fan. So he was a boyhood Arsenal fan, not a boyhood Spurs fan. Kane only actually became a Spurs “fan” in adulthood.

Even whilst in the Tottenham academy, he would still go to Arsenal games. Cheering the team he loved on from the North Bank and Clock End.

He often went with his brother who was home and away Arsenal for a bit during his younger days, and dad who was a regular in the Plimsoll before home games at Highbury.

No matter the evidence put in front of them, Spurs fans continued to claim him as one of their own. And Kane bought into it.

When he was breaking through at Tottenham, touch and go whether he would make it, he bought it into. He realised quickly that by becoming a fan favourite, a terrace hero, that he would be harder to sell.

His family also bought into it. All of a sudden they were portraying themselves as die hard Tottenham fans. Being carried in the air around pubs off the High Road. All a little bit embarrassing.

Kane probably never envisigned in 2014 that he would go on to score the goals he did over the next decade. No longer would he need the affinity to the fans to remain at the club. He was now a fixture in Spurs team due to his on pitch performances. But by then, the mud had stuck.

Spurs fans thought he was a boyhood fan and he continued to talk in interviews how he had always loved the club. It was just not true!

Now he has got his big move to Bayern Munich, it will be interesting to see what happens.

Will his old man and family continue going over Tottenham? Or will they quietly buy a box close to Thierry Henry’s and hope to sneak in and out without being noticed. His brother might need some plastic surgery to get away with that.

Good luck Harry on your new ventures. As a fellow Walthamstow born lad and Arsenal fan, I hope you smash it over there and win the trophies you deserve!

UTA

Keenos

David Raya incoming as Matt Turner departs

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Things can move quickly in football.

7 years ago, I thought I would have a little fun on Twitter. I sent up an account called Arsenal Employee and “quit” my job in the club shop to free up money for Arsene Wenger to make some new signings.

Within a week of my “resignation”, we had spent over £50million on Lucas Perez and Shkodran Mustafi.

So yesterday when I wrote the blog about the lack of Arsenal signings, I knew that the chances were high that by the end of the week we might see some departures. As it transpired, it took until about lunchtime for the next player to leave us.

£10million for Matt Turner feels like a good deal all round.

After spending a year sitting on our bench, playing preciously zero Premier League games, an opportunity arose for him to become a first choice keeper at Nottingham Forest. And he pushed for the move.

I am fairly certain Arsenal had no interest in selling Turner, but Edu and Mikel Arteta have always allowed fringe players to depart for regular starts elsewhere.

Both Edu and Arteta are players who have found themselves as back-up dancers at some stage in their career. This has moulded them into a Director of Football and Manager that cares for a players career. They will not hold someone against their will if a fair offer to depart is on the table.

Turner is a player who has worked hard to be where he is.

Never a wonderkid, he did not even start playing football until he was 14-years-old. And he only began to play in goal when when the only other goalkeeper for his freshman team was injured at tryouts.

When it came to joining a College team, he was certainly not top of any recruiters list as a keeper. Eventually he would establish himself as Number 1 at Fairfield University.

At the age of 22, Turner was not selected in the 2016 MLS SuperDraft. He was on the verge of quiting football when he made the New England Revolution roster after impressing as a preseason trialist. He would then spend a couple of years out on loan before returning to New England for the 2018 season.

Now aged 24, no one could have predicted that he would eventually become the US National Team’s number one keeper. He was still 3 years off winning his first cap.

Turner continued to work hard, continued to improve. In 2018 he would establish himself as New England’s number one, before starring in 2019 and 2020. In 2021, he would be named the league’s goalkeeper of the year.

His excellent performances in New England led to his first U.S. cap in January 2021. Five months later, he helped the Americans to the Gold Cup title, raising his profile with some top-tier play that culminated with him winning the Golden Glove award given to the best goalkeeper in the tournament.

And then the big move came.

In February 2022, it would be announced that Turner would join Arsenal for around £5million. He would become number 2 behind Aaron Ramsdale.

Turner has battled from obscruity tofirmly establish himself as the USA’s number 1, so when the opportunity to be a Premier League number 1 arose, he was always going to take it with both hands.

Nottingham Forest get an international standard number 1, Turner gets his chance to play regular PL football, and Arsenal double their money.

It is not really an exclusive to announce that Raya is going to be Turner’s replacement at Arsenal. It is a transfer that got a few people scratching their heads.

Firstly, you have those Arsenal fans questioning the club for getting their priorities wrong, stating that Arsenal should be targeting a striker rather than a goalkeeper.

We have not decided to sign Raya over a new centre forward. We merely need a new goalkeeper following Turner’s departure. Is getting someone better than Runar Alex Runarsson and Karl Hein more important than someone better than Eddie Nketiah? Yes.

Arsenal’s priorities are exactly right.

You then get those opposing fans wondering why Raya has (reportedly) turned down Chelsea, Tottenham, Manchester United and Bayern Munich.

All 4 of those clubs were looking for a new keeper this summer.

Chelsea opted for Brighton’s Robert Sanchez, Tottenham some unknown from Italy and Man U signed Andre Onana. Raya is better than all of those.

Rumours were Raya was subject to a bid in access of £40m from Tottenham earlier in the summer. And instead he joins Arsenal for £25m.

This all probably comes down to the player himself.

David Raya would rather compete to be Arsenal’s number one then get gauranteed starts at Tottenham or Man U. The pull of Arsenal and Arteta is huge!

The final question is why Aaron Ramsdale would sign a new long term (and why Arsenal would offer one), if the club were targeting Raya. Again, I do not think it is as simple as that.

The Raya deal is one that has materilised in the last 10 days due to circumstance – Turner leaving and Raya wanting out.

Arsenal would have been looking for a number 2 to replace Turner. The prices quoted were probably not too far off the deal we have done to secure Raya.

James Trafford has joined Burnley for close to £20m. Sanchez went to Chelsea for £25m.

We could have gone out and spent £20m and not recruited a goalkeeper close to the ability of Raya. So it also makes sense to spend the additional £5-10m on a top player.

As for how Arteta will get Ramsdale and Raya integrated into the squad, well that is his problem.

Sometimes I feel Arsenal are the only club criticised for having strength in depth!

So we will start the season with Ramsdale as number 1, Raya as number two. Both are home grown, both well under the age of 30. It will now be interesting to see if one establishes themselves as the clear number one. And if they do, if the other one decides to depart in 12 months time.

I have seen some compare it to when we had Bernd Leno and Emi Martinez, with some pointing out “that ended in disaster”.

Leno and Martinez ended up with us winning a trophy. And both Ramsdale and Raya are established number ones (whilst Martinez had only played about 20 games in 10 years for us!).

Martinez was also unwilling to try and fight for his spot, preferring to move to a side that gauranteed him regular football, even if it was for the 17th best team in the league.

Raya has chosen to come to Arsenal knowing he will start the season as 2nd choice, and he will have to battle to be The Arsenal number one. The situations are not comparable.

Turner takes us to around £42.5million incoming, whilst if Raya is confirmed, our expenditure (excluding add-ons) will be around £220m.

That will be a net spend of around £177.5m. That is only around £20m more than Tottenham’s net spend this summer!

I have always said that I expect Arsenal’s net to be around £100m but the time 1 September hits. So we have another £77.5m to go.

And to start how we finished, deals can happen quick.

We will swiftly recoup that once the departures of Folarin Balogun and Kierant Tierney!

Enjoy your Thursday.

Keenos

Note: this blog was written yesterday afternoon. And to highlight how quick deals can happen, the Raya deal was provisionally announced in between its scheduling and the blog going live this morning!