Football sort of returns today as we face Manchester City in the Glorified Friendly Shield.
Long term readers of the blog will know I do not think the Community Shield is a trophy worthwhile shouting about. It is just a step up from the Emirates Cup.
Not really sure when fans began celebrating the Community Shield and counting it as a genuine trophy. My gut is it was in and around when Jose Mourinho was putting up 3 fingers to signify how many trophies he had won whatever season it was.
Today is basically the final preperation game before the season starts properly next week, and Mikel Arteta has some selection headaches.
Aaron Ramsdale will start in goal. That is one thing I am sure of. Whilst William Saliba and Gabriel will be the central defensive partnership. But who is playing full back will be Arteta’s first selection decision.
With no Olexsandr Zinchenko, Arteta must decide whether to go for the other natural left back – Kieran Tierney – or go with one of his right backs.
Takehiro Tomiyasu and Jurrien Timber have both seen game time at left back in pre-season, as has centre back Jakub Kiwior. But whilst KT has not yet started a game in pre-season at left back, he has played in all 5 games and no one sle has played more minutes:
KT: 194 minutes played at left back Timber: 132 minutes Kiwior: 109 minutes Tomiyasu: 46 minutes
And who he picks at left back will impact who he has available at right back and vice versa.
If the decision at left back is KT, then that will see Arteta have the choice of Ben White, Timber and Tomiyasu at right back. And likewise if he goes for White at right back, it free’s the other two up for left back.
I think he will go with Ben White at right back (he has started 3 out of 5 pre-season games) and then I think we might see Jurrien Timber get a run out at left back.
As it is only a pre-season game, I would expect both Tomiyasu and Tierney to come on with around half an hour to go.
The midfield is also filled with uncertainty, with only Martin Odegaard assured of his position.
The recruitment of Declan Rice and Kai Havertz gives Arteta an attacking and defensive option when setting up his midfield. I expect us to go with Rice, Havertz and Odegaard in games we dominate, and Partey, Rice and Odegaard in games where we need a bit more defensive steel.
If this was a regular game versus Man City, I am sure Arteta would go with the defensive option and play Partey and Rice. But as this is pre-season, I think he might test out that more attacking midfield. Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard to start, with Partey coming on at some point which will push Rice further forward.
Bukayo Saka starts. It will be a toss up between Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard on the left. I imagine Martinelli will start and Trossard will be a supersub this season.
With Gabriel Jesus injured, Arteta will stick with Eddie Nketiah leading the line, although he does have the option of Trossard and Havertz.
When Partey is bought on, it might actually end up being for Nketiah and we see Havertz pushed further forward as a striker.
You’re allowed 6 substitutions in the Community Shield, so Tomiyasu, Tierney, Kiwior, Partey and Trossard should all see some game time. The 6th will be a toss up between Jorginho, Emile Smith Rowe and Fabio Vieira.
Ultimately, the result does not matter.
Last season, Liverpool destroyed Manchester City and then finished 22 points behind them.
I am just looking forward to a good day out at Wembley. Some beers with the mates. And hopefully a bit better weather than yesterday!
I always think comparing goalkeepers is tough. There are so many variables and neither a data led analysis or the eye-test are really sufficient
On Sunday, WhoScored tweeted out what they think are the key stats to comparing David Raya and Aaron Ramsdale. But there are so many flaws in what they put out there.
Saves: This really does mean nothing when comparing goalkeepers.
The only thing it shows is a goalkeeper having more work to do, and how many saves a keeper makes is probably more more indicative to how poor a defence is.
Ideally, you want to be stopping an attacker before they get their shot in on goal.
David Raya saving 154 shots shows that Brentford allowed too many shots at goal last season. No other keeper made more saves. In second place is Bernd Leno and 3rd is Jordan Pickford.
Fourth is Alisson, which really highlights this point.
In 2021/22, Alisson was 15th in most saves. 2022/23 he rose to 4th. This did not mean that he was a better keeper last year than the year before, just that Liverpool’s defence was worse. Highlighted further with the fact that Liverpool went from conceeding 26 goals to 47.
Ederson made the least saves of any regular keeper last year – just 46. But like Alisson’s high figure showed how poor Liverpool’s defence was, Ederson’s low figure was more to do with how great Manchester City’s defence was.
Raya made 60 more saves than Ramsdale, but faced 61 more shots.
Save success rate: Some will argue that the way around the flaws in ‘saves’ data is to look at save success rate.
Whilst this is a much better way to compare goalkeepers, it is still flawed. It does not factor in the difficulty of those saves.
We have all watched a games where a keeper has made 10-12 saves and thought “what a great game they had”. But then you watch the highlights and see every shot was straight at him, and that he should have (and did) save all of them.
Say you have two keepers in a game. One saves 10 out of 10 shots (100% success rate), the other saves 8 out of 10 (80% success). Save success rate would have you think the one with the clean sheet outperformed the other.
But what if those first 10 shots were straight at the keeper. He did not pull off any saves he had not right to make. Then with the second keeper, the two he conceded were the old school sweaty FIFA goals where 2 players are clean through and one squares it to the other. Keeper stood no chance.
And then in the same game, the keeper that conceded twice pulled off two David Seaman v Sheffield United-esque saves.
Would you say the keeper who made 10 easy saves outperformed the keeper who had no chance with the goals he conceeded, and pulled off a couple of worldies?
Whilst ‘save success rate’ is not a way to establish who is a better keeper, it is a good way to see who is a poor keeper. Last season, Leeds United’s Illan Meslier saved less than 60% against him.
When you are looking at Ramsdale v Raya, 70% v 77% is probably not a large enough gap to be relevant.
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Clean sheets: Like saves, clean sheets is fairly irrelevant. It usually just highlights who played in a better team. Or for mid-table teams, those that play more defensive football.
Manchester United’s David de Gea kept the most clean sheets – 17. But Man U scored just 58 league goals. 30 less than Arsenal. That would show that Man U tended to play more defensively, whilst Arsenal were more attacking. And the more you attack, the more open you can be at the back.
Ramsdale kept 14 clean sheets to Raya’s 12. This is not a surprise considering Arsenal finished 2nd and Brentford 9th, with us scoring 30 more goals.
Accurate long balls: It is interesting that in an era where most keepers pass it out from the back, WhoScored has used ‘accurate long balls’ as a comparator
Raya dwarfs Ramsdale with 410 accurate long balls against just 138 for Ramsdale.
The Brentford keeper attempted 973 long balls last season, meaning 42.1% hit their target. Ramsdale attempted 472, completing just 29.2%. And this is where too many variables comes into play.
Ramsdale was clearly instructed to play it short a lot more, with Arsenal looking to move the ball forward along the ground. Brentford were clearly a long ball team.
This meant Brentford would set up every time Raya had the ball like it was a set play. They would overload one side and have targets for Raya to aim for.
In Ramsdale’s case, he only really went long as a last resort or if he saw a quick break opportunity; this would mean Arsenal would be less likely to be set up for a long ball from the keeper set-play.
You also have to factor in who the target of the long balls is.
Ivan Toney is a much better target man than Gabriel Jesus. Kevin Schade, at 6 1, is a better option than 5 10 Martinelli. Brentford have better players in the air than Arsenal, so it makes sense more long balls hit their target.
I would not be surprised if this season Arsenal’s accurate long ball percentage increases. It will not be because of Ramsdale improving (or Raya joining) but because Kai Havertz is better in the air than anyone we had last season. He will be the target in that front line.
Goals conceded: See clean sheets.
Errors leading to a goal: This can useful at times, highlighting a keeper that might be error prone. But can we read too much into Raya making one error that led to a goal against Ramsdale making two? The data is too small.
Eye test: Finally we come onto the eye test.
The eye test is what is now used by hipsters to discuss traditional scouting where a fella with a flat cap goes and watches a player a few times and writes his report. But even this can be flawed. And the fans eye-test is even worse.
The fans eye-test is the most unreliable of them all when it comes to keepers.
Most of us only get to see the likes of Brentford play on Match of the Day or whatever highlights package you watch.
Keepers lower down the leagues will have their good performances against top teams amplified by producers. Plenty of praise and analysis. There poor games tend not to have the same coverage.
It is a 180 for keepers playing for top teams.
A keeper at Arsenal, Manchester City or Man U will have a poor game analysed in depth. whilst when they have a great game against lower opposition, it is glossed over.
This can lead viewers to believe that a lesser keeper is better. I call it the Jussi Jaaskelainen affect.
Jaaskelainen was a top keeper for Bolton, and always seemed to raise his game against Arsenal. MOTD would go out of their way to highlight his performances 4-5 times a season. But he would also have 4-5 games where he would have a stinker. Yet thse would not get the same airtime.
This would lead fans at the time to think Jaaskelainen was one of the best keepers in the league. It was not true. It just meant that, playing for a poor team, he had more chance of being a hero.
As for the eye test from scouts, again this can be tough as it is all dependant on what games you go see them in. Just because a keeper has a poor game, does not make him a poor keeper. Nor does one good game make him world class.
So what then?: Expected saves is a good metric that I like. It shows when keepers make saves that they should not, whilst also factoring the saves that they should make.
Post-shot expected goals (PSxG ) is expected goals based on how likely the goalkeeper is to save the shot.
If a shot is direct at him, you would not expect him to concede. Whilst that Samean-esque save would carry a high weight for conceding a goal. A keeper that has a higher than 0 PSxG has outperformed one that has a lower than 0.
Last season, Raya’s was +5, whilst Ramsdale was -2. That means Raya conceded 5 less goals than he should have, whilst Ramsdale conceded 2 more.
Whilst this is a good metric for seeing how good a keeper is at saving, there are still plenty more variables that have not been factored in such as: handling at crosses, coming off the line for intereceptions, short passes, command of box and more!
Often, it is the work on the training ground which shows who the better keeper is.
The jump test, reaction test, speed test, handling test. These are what teams use to determine who is the better physical and technical keeper. But that does not count for what is between the ears.
Manuel Almunia was one of the best in the league when it came to those tests in training. But when he came to being on the pitch, he did not have the composure. And that is a big factor.
So who is Raya an upgrade on Ramsdale? Personally I think it is close to call and we might only find out when both are an Arsenal player.
Am I describing Manchester United’s new big money money signing? Or Lord Bendtner? The reality is, the above can be used to describe both.
Nicklas Bendtner, at 20-years-old, scored 9 Premier League goals in 31 games. At the same age, Højlund scored 9 goals in 32 games for Atalanta. Bendtner played 1,757 minutes for his 9 goals. Højlund 1,834.
Whilst Man U fans might celebrate the signing, believing him to be a Danish Erling Haaland, Højlund is actually a clone of the former Arsenal player.
In Football Manager terms, Højlund is basically a re-gen of a 2008/09 Bendtner. The fact that both men are also from the same country and are the same build makes the comparison even spookier.
I have long said that those that cry “Arsenal need another striker” are misguided. And the fact Man U have spent so much on the next Nicklas Bendtner proves me right.
Those options that are better than Gabriel Jesus (only really Victor Osimhen) are out of our price range this summer.
The level below Jesus, but above Eddie Nketiah and Flo Balogun (Dušan Vlahović, Ollie Watkins, Tammy Abraham) would probably not move from where they are to sit on our bench. And I would back that if Eddie played for Aston Villa or Roma, he would score just as many as Watkins or Abraham.
Ivan Toney is one that would have been of interest to us. But he is “banned from all footballing activities” and my understanding is this includes a transfer. If we did get him, we would have to wait until his ban is over in January.
Finally you have the likes of Gonçalo Ramos, Elye Wahi, Jonathan David and Højlund.
These are all untested at the top level, all playing in a lesser league or just had 1 season of top football. I question whether they are better options than Nketiah and Balogun.
Balogun, Wahi and David all scored a similar amount of goals last season in the same French league, whilst Ramos scored around the same aat a similar level in Portugal.
Højlund scored 10 goals in all competitions in Italy, Nketiah scored 9.
Finally, for those saying we should sign Aleksandar Mitrović. No. Just no.
I do think Chelsea have got a player in Nicolas Jackson. But having signed Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang and David Dstro Fofana, it is a case of “third time lucky” for Todd Boehly.
Jackson’s acquisition is certainly not the result of great scouting. It is simply a case of them buying as many talented, young players as possible in the hope that a few of them might turn into stars. Throw 12 eggs at a wall and one will not break…
And even then, I would rather we “give Balogun a go” than recruit Jackson. They are probably similar level. Although I do understand that Balgoun wants to be first choice. He would not want to sit on the bench behind Jesus.
So Man U’s 5-year search for a new striker might now be over.
Since Romelu Lukaku to Inter Milan in the summer of 2019, there have been 9 transfer windows where they could have bought a new striker. They have got through Edinson Cavani, Cristiano Ronaldo and Wout Weghorst in that time. They have now signed the next Nicklas Bendtner.
So apologies if I ignore calls from Arsenal to buy a new striker. Man U (and to a lesser extent Chelsea), have shown over recent years how hard it is to find a good one.
And you can also perhaps understand why Daniel Levy is so keen to keep Harry Kane. He knows there really is no one on the market at Kane’s level. Spurs will probably end up with Mitrović!
She Wore A Yellow Ribbon 