Pre-season serves up a mixed bag of results and performances

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Morning all!

Day off from the grind for me today. Think I will go visit Mountfitchet Castle.

So pre-season is over(ish) depending on how you rate the Community Shield.

I will always say that competition is just another glorified friendly. Teams will often start with a strong XI but make plenty of subs as the game goes on. No difference to if we were playing Man City in our final friendly before the season starts.

It has been a mixed bag this pre-season for us.

We started off with a 1-1 draw against Nurnberg. We looked very good at times but a sloppy mistake let them equalise.

They were further advanced in their pre-season and susbtitutions interrupted our momentum, as it so often does.

We then faced the MLS All-Stars and won comfortably 5-0.

The result was not a surprise as the gulf between the Premier League and the MLS is huge. Add in that many of the players had not played together before and were being managed by Wayne Rooney. Some excellent goals though.

Up next was the defeat against a very motivated Manchester United team. It felt like Erik Ten Hag told his players to go out and prove a point, and Man U played very aggressively.

They treated it like a proper Premier League game, playing their aggressive, long ball style. We saw it as just a run out to build fitness and work on tactical transitions.

The headline read 2-0 to Man U, but I feel Mikel Arteta would have learned more about our team than Ten Hag did about his.

We put things right in the next game against Barcelona.

We upped our intensity and won 5-3. Ironically Barcelona manager Xavi came out after and said Arsenal treated it too seriously. And this is why you can often ignore pre-season results.

Against Man U, we get criticised for not being sharp enough, not aggressive enough. Then against Barcelona it is that we were too sharp, too aggressive.

The real difference is we were simply ahead of Barca in our preperations.

We were their 1st friendly game of the season, they were out 4th. Perhaps if they don’t want to be overwhelmed, they should plan their pre-season better and not face a top team as their first game?

But then it’s all about money. Facing Arsenal, Real Madrid, AC Milan and Tottenham makes them more cash than facing Nurnberg, MLS All-Stars, Real Madrid and then Arsenal.

Pre-season was rounded off with the game against Monaco.

For the first 30, we sat back and invited pressure. We did not look up for it. Then for the next 30 we dominated. The last half hour was a write off due to the amount of substitutions.

We won the Emirates Cup on penalties. Interesting fact: Spurs have never won the semi Emirates Cup…

Arsenal shin pads

A few injury concerns have come out of pre-season.

Gabriel Jesus is out for 2-3 weeks at least. Hopefully that is all it is. He misses Nottingham Forest, Crystal Palace and Fulham. We should win those without him.

Any longer than 2-3 weeks and we might have to look into going into the market for a new striker. But the headache is still there about who we could get?

Every name mentioned to me is either too expensive, or not really much better than Eddie or Flo.

Declan Rice is also a minor injury concern. He has twice suffered a “tight calf”.

This would indicate that his conditioning is probably not where it should be. Playing a static role for West Ham is not the same as the intensity Arteta wants from Arsenal players.

His fitness will need to be bought up to the appropriate level slowly to avoid suffering a more significant injury.

Pre-season saw certainly Arsenal-incels decide to pick on Kai Havertz and Declan Rice.

They scream “spend money” and moan that Kroenke does not financially support the team. Then we buy to top, top class players for big money and they complain “we have been turned over”.

We should not concern ourselves with how much a player costs. The only thing his price impacts is whether it then restricts us signing someone else.

Say we had have signed Rice for £65m (which is what I have seen some Arsenal “fans” say is all we should have offered), what striker are we really getting for £40m?

And then West Ham we’re never going to accept £65m so we’d have to move onto other targets.

Moises Caicedo is clearly going for more than that, so you would probably end up with someone like Romeo Lavia. And Rice would go to City for £95m.

These same fans would then moan that we had missed out on another top signing due to being cheap and not paying the asking price.

They moan if we spend £100m on a player, and then they moan if we don’t spend £100m on the exact same player…

Anyway, I’m nice and chilled in my garden having a cup of coffee. Sun is out. Finally.

A couple more days then we are off to Wembley!

Keenos

Veteran free transfer the alternative to David Raya for Arsenal

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Most of this week we have been discussing David Raya and a potential £40million move for the Spanish keeper.

Throughout, I have struggled to see how we can accomodate both Raya and Aaron Ramsdale. I am of the belief that they are of a similar level. I also do not agree with the concept of “two top keepers job sharing. One in the leage, the other in the cups”. I think it spells a recipe for disaster.

The issue is, if Matt Turner leaves Arsenal, we will need to sign someone to replace him.

Runar Alex Runarsson is not even Championsip level, whilst both Karl Hein and Arthur Okonkwo are too raw to be 2nd choice. So what other options are there?

This blog started with me trying to find 5 names that could be 2nd choice to Ramsdale. In the end there was only one candidate I felt I could put forward. Keylor Navas

My first thought when I read the Turner news was “why would he go to Forest to be second choice behind Navas”. I had not realised that the Costa Rican had only signed a 6 month deal back in January.

When looking for a second choice keeper, you either need to go for a young up-and-commer who is on the verge of stepping up to 1st choice, or an experienced old timer who is happy to sit on the bench for the last year or two of his career.

With Ramsdale being just 25-years-old, it is unlikely there will be too many young keepers that would be able to take his glvoes in the coming year or two. As they improve, so will Ramsdale (hopefully). That leaves us at the other end of the market.

Navas is now 36-years-old, but he showed for Forest that he still has those cat-like reflexes that saw him play for Real Madrid and PSG during his career. He was one of their best players as Forest survived in the Premier League.

Any cover for Ramsdale needs to replicate what Aaron can do on the ball. We can not afford to change our style of playe just because a goalkeeper is injured. Navas is very good on the ball.

He always seems to know when he can play it short, and when he should just get rid. Navaz is also not one to take risks or try and overdo it with the ball at his feet.

Whilst 36 might seem old, plenty of goalkeepers have gone well beyond this into their career. You would expect Arsenal could get at least 2 good eyars out of him. And those 2-years could be essential for the development for Hein.

The big worry will be Saudi Arabia, and to a lesser extent the MLS.

You can certainly see the Saudi’s offering him huge money for a couple of years with them. Having an ex-Madrid and PSG keeper playing week in week out would be seen as a coup.

Meanwhile the MLS would be like taking one step back home – Costa Rica is less than a 3 hour flight from Miami for example.

With the next World Cup 3-years away, and in America, you can certainly see Navas thinking that a few years in the MLS will be the best chance for him to play in a (nearly) home World Cup.

We obviously will not compete with Saudi Arabia over wages, whilst the MLS could be a more attractive option.

If not Navas, and not Raya, I am not sure who else is out there…

Keenos

Do Arsenal have their priorities wrong with David Raya transfer?

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Yesterday’s blog with regards to our links to David Raya garnered a similar response from many.

“Arsenal have their priorities wrong. We need a new striker, not a new goalkeeper.”

This statement has two parts that I think need addressing.

Arsenal have their priorities wrong

Some fans seem to think that by us looking at a new goalkeeper, we are showing that we prioritise a keeper over a new striker. This is not the case.

We were neither targeting a new keeper or new striker this summer. Neither was considered a priority by Edu, Mikel Arteta or the recruitment team.

There were 3 main priorities going into the summer: a new defensive midfielder, a new attacking option, a new defensive options. In Declan Rice, Kai Havertz and Jurrien Timber we cover off all 3 priorities fairly quickly.

After spending so much on 3 top players, any further signings were only going to happen depending on sales. It would basically be one in, one out.

The main expectation was that we might see Thomas Partey leave. Replacing him would have been a 2nd defensive midfielder to go alongside the acquisition of Rice. It now looks like Partey is going to stay.

Unexpectedly, Matt Turner has become subject to an enquiry from Nottingham Forest. And he has signalled his interest in joining him.

One thing Arteta and Edu are both acutely aware of is players wanting to leave for regular football. Both have moved in their career’s to play more regularly. It is clear neither will stand in the way of a squad player if they wish to move elsewhere to start week in, week out. As long as the price is right of course…

This stance will lead to players respecting Arsenal and assist with our recruiters. Players will know that our management care about their careers and will not force them to stay when not playing.

Whilst Arsenal were not actively looking to sell Turner, we would also not get in his way if he asked to leave to be first choice somewhere. And that opporunity looks to have risen with Forest.

Forest is a step down from The Arsenal. But at 29-years-old, Turner might never get a better chance to be a first choice keeper in a top league in Europe. He would be crazy to sit on our bench instead of playing week in, week out for them.

If a deal is done for Turner, than Arsenal are short of a goalkeeper. We certainly will not turn back to Rúnar Alex Rúnarsson (who basically went on the US tour just to make up the numbers in training).

Being proactive, once that interest from Forest came in and Turner let the club know he would be interested, we begun making enquiries on his replacement. Top of the like would have been Raya.

So this situation is not us prioritising a goalkeeper over a striker. It is that circumstances could mean that a goalkeeper becomes a priority.

If Turner leaves, would you rather spend £40m on Raya, or have Rúnarsson as second choice and a new £40m striker?

A new striker

We already have 3 strikers at the club – Gabriel Jesus, Eddie Nketiah and Folarin Balogun. We also have Kai Havertz, Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard who have played down the middle at some point in their career.

A new striker will only come in this summer if both Nketiah and Balogun depart. Otherwise we simply do not have the squad place for them.

For those now saying “well sell Nketiah and Balogun then”. Grow up. Football is not as easy as Football Manager and FIFA. For us to sell them, there would need to be a buying club interested in paying what we want. It is not as easy as the old “fax interested clubs”.

And (and this is a huge and), if we do sell both, who are we actually recruiting?

I have blogged countless times over the last 6 months about there being a dearth of top strikers across Europe.

We either need someone who is not as good as Jesus, but better than Nketiah, and happy to be 2nd choice. Or someone that is better than Jesus and hope Gabi does not follow Nketiah and Balogun out of the door.

When you consider Manchester United’s 12 months earch for a new striker will end up with them spending £72m on a 20-year-old Nicolas Bendtner re-gen, you perhaps realise how few top strikers there are out there…

Chelsea have ended up spending over £100m on Christopher Nkunku and Nicolas Jackson.

Nkunku is quality, but not an out and out forward. Jackson, meanwhile, comes with a record and reputation no better than Balogun.

Had we sold Balogun and Nketiah and signed a 22-year-old with 21 careers goals in 92 games, I bet all those saying “we have our priorities wrong” would also be complaining.

When you ask who we should target, you often get the same names: Osimhen, Toney, Watkins.

We do not have another £100m+ to splash on Osimhen. And you have to wonder what Napoli are actually asking for considering that neither Chelsea or Man U went for him.

Toney is banned until the new year, so a move now would make zero sense (considering he is banned from “all footballing activities” I doubt we can even sign him), and Watkins is no better than Balogun or Nketiah. Both would have scored as many for Aston Villa last season.

As for Vlahovic and Mitrovic, these are both different style strikers to what we currently have.

“Perfect, a Plan B then”. Well no. The strikers primary job will be competition and cover for Jesus. Therefore he has to be a similar style player. Otherwise we would be chaging our entire style of play if Jesus ever got an injury / dropped for being out of form.

A few will mention Elye Wahi. Whilst he looks to have plenty in his locker, he also comes with a lot of baggage.

The truth is, there is no real outstanding candidates out there. Which is why we are probably not prioritising it this summer.

I imagine our scouting network will be told “over the next 12 months we want you to find us another striker”. And that gives us the time to run the rule over them.

And a final point, last season we scored 88 league goals. The most in our history. The narrative that we are poor upfront is just not true.

So if you have got this far, hopefully you realise that Arsenal are not prioritising a keeper over a striker. It is just if circimstance transpire, a goalie becomes a priority.

As for a striker, this is not the 00s where there were a lot of top strikers in world football. Gone are the days where a team could have 3-4 top forwards in their squad. Football has changed…

Have a good Tuesday.

Keenos