The reported fee for Folarin Balogun is €40m. Or around £35m in Pound sterling. The feeling by many is that Arsenal are selling the striker on the cheap.

It is hard to disagree with that sentiment during a summer that has seen record spending in the Premier League and Manchester United splash £65m on an injured Danish striker with 9 Serie A goals to his name.

In comparison to Rasmus Hojlund, Balogun scored 21 league goals for Reims in Ligue 1 last season.

Balogun going for half the cost of Hojlund does feel like we are underselling him. But is that true?

Manchester United overpaid for Hojlund

For me, Manchester United massively overpaid for Hojlund. He is not a £65m striker.

Hojlund’s figures are not too dissimilar to a certain Nicklas Bendtner at the same age. The pair are very similar in terms of physique and playing style.

I think it is unfair to compare the fee paid for Hojlund to Balogun.

Chelsea signed Christopher Nkunku for £50m. The Frenchman has scored 58 goals in the last two seasons for RB Leipzig. You will struggle to find anyone who will make a case that Balogun is better than Nkunku.

We have to remember Balogun has only had one season of top flight football. Maybe had he gone out on loan again and scored another 20-goal haul, his fee would have been closer to what Chelsea paid for Nkunku.

Chelsea also signed the exciting Nicolas Jackson for around £32m. Not far off what Monaco are spending on Balogun.

I would say Jackson is comparable to Balogun.

Both men are 22-years-old and had their breakout season last year – Jackson playing in the tougher La Liga.

At €40m, Balogun will be the 5th most expensive striker transfer this summer (excluding the crazy Saudi Arabia transfers):

Harry Kane – €100m
Rasmus Hojlund – €75m
Chrisopher Nkunku – €60m
Matheus Cunha – €50m
Folarin Balogun – €40m
Lois Openda – €38.5m
Nicolas Jackson – €37m

The above highlights how much Manchester United paid for Hojlund. It also puts Balogun, Openda and Jackson at around the same level, which is probably fair.

Last season, Openda scored 21 in Ligue 1, the exact same as Balogun.

When you look at this summers forward signings excluding the Hojlund deal, I would say the €40m for Balogun is par.

No to the Premier League

Only two leagues in world football are splashing the cash this summer – the Premier League and Saudi Pro League:

Premier League – €2.3bn in arrivals
Seria A – €755m
Ligue 1 – €682m
Bundesliga – €662m
La Liga – €384m
(all figures in this blog taken from Transfrmarkt)

Once Arsenal make the decision not to sell Balogun to a Premier League club, what they can possibly receive in transfer fee drops.

The other top 5 leagues are filled with teams struggling financially.

Many clubs in those leagues need to sell before they buy, and they massively rely on receiving inflated fees from Premier League sides.

Clubs from Italy, Spain, Germany and France tend to sell to the Premier League these not, not buy.

Bayern Munich, PSG, Real Madrid and Barceloan aside, you will rarely see a Premier League player moving to the continent for big money.

Of the 10 most expensive players to depart the Premier League this summer for foreign shores, Balogun is 5th.

Harry Kane is the most expensive departure, and then the next 3 (Ruben Neves, Aleksandar Mitrovic & Fabinho) all signed for a Saudi Club.

If you exclude the Saudi deals (considering Balogun was never going to move there), Balogun is the 2nd most expensive Premier League departure this summer:

Harry Kane – €100m
Folarin Balogun – €40m
Moise Keen – €30m
Gianluca Scamacca – €25m
Christian Pulisic – €20m

Only 5 players have departed the Premier League for a European club for €20m or more.

Could we have attracted a bid from Brighton, West Ham or Crystal Palace? Maybe. But there is a reason they turned down a chance to sign him.

Sell on clause

I think with the Balogun deal, it was important to get some clauses inserted for when he moves again. And that comes with a cost.

You want a 50% profit sell on clause? You have to agree a lower upfront transfer fee. This is a fairly basic practise.

By looking to sell Balogun abroad, Arsenal would have accepted that they will receive a lower fee for him. But a good sell on clause means that we will profit again if (and when) he returned to the Premier League.

Balogun goes and smashes in another 20+ goals in France, backing up his first senior season, his value will increase. You can certainly see a team paying £50m for him next summer if he gets another 20 goals.

If it is a 50% sell on clause, Balogun moving for £50m will see an additional £7.5m enter our coffers.

Selling him to Chelsea this summer would have been a PR disaster, but in 12 months time, Monaco selling him to Chelsea and Arsenal getting £7.5m will soften the blow.

Considering the mess PSG are in with Neymar departing and Kylian Mbappe sulking, you can certainly see them coming in for Balogun if he has another good year.

Whilst we might not have got the super fee for Balogun some might have hoped, we should receive even more for him in the next 12-24 months.

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When you look at the transfer in comparison to others, it is hard to argue against the €40m fee for Balogun being about right.

It is a similar feee to what Jackson and Openda went for, and he is the 5thmost expensive forward to move to a European side this summer. He is also the 2nd most expensive player to depart the Premier League fot a European side.

What this all highlights is Manchester United massivaly overpaid for Hojlund, and Arsenal got par money for Balogun.

Enjoy your Monday.

Keenos

Back on the shop…
12" Clock WallClocks….https://t.co/vlaHeBWIC8 pic.twitter.com/vBeiOn0PZP

— 🎗 ///SHE WORE/// 🎗 (@SheWore) August 24, 2023

Arsenal (0) 2 Fulham (1) 2

Premier League

Emirates Stadium, Drayton Park, London N5 1BU

Saturday, 26th August 2023. Kick-off time: 3.00pm

(4-3-3) Aaron Ramsdale; Thomas Partey, Ben White, William Saliba, Jakob Kiwior; Martin Ødegaard, Declan Rice, Kai Havertz; Bukayo Saka, Leandro Trossard, Gabriel Martinelli.

Substitutes: Gabriel Magalhães, Gabriel Jesus, Emile Smith-Rowe, Eddie Nketiah, (Jorge Luiz Frello Filho) Jorginho, Fábio Vieira, David Raya, Reiss Nelson, Oleksandr Zinchenko.

Scorers: Bukayo Saka (70 mins, penalty), Eddie Nketiah (72 mins)

Yellow Cards: Mikel Arteta

Arsenal Possession Percentage: 71%

Referee: Paul Tierney

Assistant Referees: Neil Davies, Scott Ledger

Fourth Official: Thomas Bramall

VAR Team at Stockley Park: VAR Darren England; AVAR Dan Cook

Attendance: 59,961

Good to see Gabriel Jesus back in contention for this afternoon’s derby game against the Cottagers, and by being on the substitute’s bench, it certainly looks like he is fit and raring to go. Takehiro Tomayasu is suspended today, and Jakob Kiwior will be slotting nicely into the back four in his absence.

Unbelievably, within a minute of the start, we were a goal down when, after a silly mistake from Bukayo Saka, the ball found Andreas Pereira, whose right-footed shot from outside our penalty area beat Aaron Ramsdale, and ended up in the bottom left hand corner for the visitors to take the lead! We woke up and responded quickly, and in doing so, a curling Gabriel Martinelli shot culed around the post and into the crowd, and then a ball from Leandro Trossard to the back post was met by Bukayo Saka, who flicked the ball back into the middle of the penalty area for a waiting Kai Havertz, but his header went astray. We are slowly dictating play now, with Declan Rice completely controlling his midfield area, and after a nice pass from Gabriel Martinelli, which left Leandro Trossard in a perfect scoring position, his shot was easily gathered up by former Gunner Bernd Leno, who keeps goal for Fulham, of course. The visitors almost grabbed a second goal when a volley from Raúl Jiménez flew over the crossbar, and although the Cottagers look dangerous on the break, their efforts end up going nowhere at the moment. On the half hour, Bukayo Saka found himself in space behind the Fulham defence to meet a cross, but his header was weak, sending it into the ground and bouncing over the bar. After another attack, which came to nothing, a universal groan could be heard from out supporters, who are getting just as frustrated as our chaps are on the pitch. Our captain did get the ball into the net, five minutes before the break, but it was disallowed for offside; a minute or so later, Martin Ødegaard took a strong shot at the Fulham goal, but sadly Bernd Leno gathered that ball up easily. As the rain started to fall, and half-time approaches, everyone in the stadium is starting to wonder what exactly Arsenal have to do to score the equalising goal here today, and as referee Paul Tierney does indeed bring the first forty-five minutes to a close, it is felt across the stadium that it must surely be a matter of time before we score that goal which we so desperately need.

For the second half, Eddie Nketiah replaced Leandro Trossard, in order to refresh the strikers, and we started out completely on the good foot. Bukayo Saka wriggled beautifully between two Fulham defenders on the right wing, cut inside and whacked a shot towards the goal that Bernd Leno stretched into the air to grab. Good start, chaps. Calvin Bassey received the second Fulham yellow card for time wasting, and as consistent pressure from our fowards pressurise the visitor’s goal, it surely must be a matter of time before we score. Eleven minutes after the restart, Fábio Vieira replaced Kai Havertz up front, whilst Thomas Partey was swapped for Oleksandr Zinchenko, and almost immediately they joined the action, when a superb cross from Fábio Vieira was headed out of the Fulham penalty area by Issa Diop. Yet another fine shot from our captain went inches over the bar, and shortly afterwards, he released Eddie Nketiah behind the Fulham defence on the right wing; his low, strong cross found Gabriel Martinelli on the opposite side of the penalty area but the subsequent low ball from him was cleared by the visitor’s defence. And then, a massive beam of light at the end of an existing tunnel appeared when Fábio Vieira got in behind Kenny Tete and the Fulham defender slid in clumsily to take our man down in the penalty area for a surefire penalty! After the usual VAR check (which is always a heartstopper), Bukayo Saka stepped up to the plate, and made no mistake to even up the scores with twenty minutes of the game remaining, and of course, our supporters went wild. Now we really do have a match! Two minutes later, we took the lead, when a Fábio Vieira cross found a waiting Eddie Nketiah, whose right-footed shot from the centre of the penalty area found the centre of Bernd Leno’s goal. Exciting stuff, chaps! Unbelievably, our manager, Mikel Arteta has found himself in the referee’s book for an infringement outside his technical area, and on the pitch, our obvious domination continues with less than ten minutes of the game remaining. The visitors went down to ten men when Calvin Bassey got his marching orders for a second bookable offence after blocking Eddie Nketiah, and literally, with three minutes of the match remaining, the visitors grabbed an equalising goal, courtesy of João Palhinha! How on earth could such a thing happen? Let us hope that in the nine minutes’ injury time, we can grab a winning goal here. Gabriel Jesus replaced Declan Rice in order to get more firepower on the pitch, and we started to literally throw everything at the Fulham defence now, with a spirited shot by Fábio Vieira being saved, and then Oleksandr Zinchenko’s deep cross was nodded away by Antonee Robinson. Tosin Adarabioyo headed away a cross from Fábio Vieira and incredibly a minute or so later, Aaron Ramsdale pulled off a superb match-winning save from a shot by Adama Traore and as the match ebbed away, a final chance to score was punched away by Bernd Leno from the head of Eddie Nketiah, just as referee Paul Tierney blew the final whistle.

The stats tell their own story somehow; seventy-one per cent possesssion, seventeen shots on goal (nine on target) and still we were unable to take all three points here at home. However, we did appear to just switch off at times, and it is to be noted that in both the Nottingham Forest match and today, we conceded goals in the last quarter of an hour of the game, which is something that surely needs addressing as we go through the season. It is still early days of course, but these things must be nipped firmly in the bud before we start our European campaign. A long road ahead.

Remember everyone, keep the faith, get behind the team and the manager, as this season is going to be crucial for our future success in all competitions. Stick with the winners. Our next match: Manchester United at the Emirates on Sunday, 3rd September at 4.30pm (Premier League). Be there, if you can. Victoria Concordia Crescit.

Steve

Too Dearly Loved To Be Forgotten: Arsenal v Racing Club de Paris 1930-1962 by Steve Ingless (Rangemore Publications, ISBN 978-1-5272-0135-4) is now available on Amazon

Game day 3. Fulham at home.

When the fixture list was announced, it was important we got off to a winning start following our favourable scheduling.

Nottingham Forest (home), Crystal Palace (away) and Fulham (home) looked like a comfortable start to the season. And with 6 points our of 6, we have done what we have needed to do without coming needing to come out of 3rd gear.

I always feel the team that wins the league is not who comes flying out the blocks quickest, but the side that gets through the opening half a dozen fixtures expending the least amount of energy whilst gaining maximum points.

In recent years, we have seen Manchester City have “slow” starts to the season where they do just enough to get through games. Then in the second half of the season they go up and gear before peaking for the run in.

Last season we flew out the blocks, and we needed to do it. But the consequence was when it came down to the business end of the season, we ran out of steam.

This season it certainly feels like we are holding a bit more back. Ensuring we are getting through games without needing to go 100%. And a home fixture against Fulham should see us go 9 out of 9.

Fulham had an exceptional season last year, driven by a 10-games spell from the end of the World Cup to end of February where only Manchester City, Man U and Arsenal got more points. But they finished the season poorly.

From the beginning of March to the end of the season, they fell away and were one of the worst teams in the league – only the 3 relegated sides alongside Chelsea and Nottingham Forest gained more less points from the last 13 games of the season.

I think this season they will struggle (although will stay up).

Losing Aleksandar Mitrovic is a huge blow after he finally learned how to score goals in the Premier League. Recruiting the past-his-best Raul Jimenez is a huge step down – the Mexican has not been the same since suffering a head injury against Arsenal.

Teams will not time them as lightly as last season, which will see midfield pairing Andreas Pereira and João Palhinha get less time on the ball.

They started this season with a ropey 1-nil win over Everton (who I think will go down), and that was followed up by a 3-nil defeat at home to Brentford.

That Brentford game was an interesting watch as it felt like Fulham were in control for much of the game. They were hampered by going down to 10-men after 64 minutes, and Brentfod’s second goal was from the penalty spot. Their 3rd was in injury time.

We have only dropped points once since 2012 against Fulham – a 1-1 draw during Covid in April 2021.

That team consisted of Matt Ryan in goal, with Hector Bellerin, Rob Holding and Granit Xhaka in defence alongside Gabriel. The midfield 5 was Bukayo Saka, Dani Ceballos, Mo Elneny, Emile Smith Rowe and Gabriel Martinelli. Alex Lacazette was upfront.

It shows how far we have come in a little more than 2 years that you would expect just 3 of those to start.

Win the game, then it is onto Manchester United at home (3 home games in the first 4 of the season?), then we are into the international break.

If we can get into that break with 4 wins from 4, fears that last season might have been a fluke should be diminished.

Enjoy the game today.

UTA

Keenos